How to pick losing favourites

[marksto2]

Hi All,

I wanted to have a discussion re favourites. From your experience what the major factors why favourites lose and what one should look out for?

Up in distance by more than 200m
Up in class from maiden to class 1 plus
Days since last run
Bad jockeys

Look forward to your thoughts.

Cheers, Marksto2

[beton]

Marksto2
The strike rate of favorites are directly proportional to the price. It is indirectly proportional to the number of runners. Distance and track conditions are reasonably even. Something that I cannot check at present is class. Having said that I have noticed that in maidens and lower class races the favorite strike rate per price range belies the average. More $2 favorites fall in lower class races than $2 favorites in opens.
I hope this helps. Beton

[marksto2]

Thanks Beton. This does help. Confirms that when betting against the favourite best to look for the low class races where these favs are at false odds. I generally start backing second third and fourth favourites in these types of races with the Money Factory staking plan. Seems to work but wan to be more selective in the race I do this on and seeking to find those races with false favourites to bet against with the next few in the market.

[moeee]

One thing you might check up on is drifting Favourites.

But ALWAYS REMEMBER , the animal doesn't know it is favourite.
So whatever makes Favourites fail , should apply equally as well to all the other contenders in the race.

[jose]

Type "conversely" into the search facility.
The thread titled this is a pretty good start.

[CosMos]

Read many years ago that one should never back a favourite that finished more than 3 lengths from the winner at its last start...

[Barny]

It's alleged that a beaten last start fav has a S/R of 18%

[jose]

Would be a big help if we define "Favourite"

Is it the Pre-post, the SP, the Opening, the Fixed Price or whatever.
Chopping and changing is the short way to the poorhouse. IMHO.

[beton]

Isn't the fav as per records after the event. The shortest price horse for the race after all bets are settled. All the rest are something totally different. The question is to be able to find which are true favs I.E. the one that wins and how to recognize the false fav being the one that losses two thirds of the time.

[jose]

True Beton.

[4legs]

I will soon have the results of 1,000 races (I know still very small in the overall scheme of things) but when I have the magic 1,000 I will post the difference between the favourite at 10 seconds and the favourite at closing (this is on Betfair). On the Tote I know it can change dramatically, so it will be interesting to see what happens on betfair. At this stage I have no idea as I have not done the exercise .. I will wait until I get the 1,000 races.

Fred

[Bhagwan]

FALSE FAV STATS ...
Favs stats with below the 30%SR industry average.

Favs that ran within 1-7 days 1201m - 3500m SR = 23%

7yr old fav = 23%

Favs that ran exactly 5th last start = 22%

Favs beaten 5.1+ lengths in the last 1-28 days ago = 19% ***

Favs 1601-1799m = 10% ***

Favs going up in Dist 201m+ 22%

Anything around the 22% mark, makes for good lay betting if we can get a price of <= 4.00 to lay, even if its in-running.

Bet 1.25% of bank fixed stakes.
This allows for approx 22+ outs.

*** Stand out the most stats.

[Bhagwan]

Another False fav stat...
(Ignoring Hurdles)

1301m-3500m with 59.0kg exactly ignoring apprentice claims = 9%SR ***

[4legs]

As promised, in the thread "A theory" I have posted some figures after 711 races based on their Ranked positions at 10 seconds and close .. Fred

[peterpan]

Hi All,

From your experience what the major factors why favourites lose

1/ When I back them.

2/ They don't run fast enough.

[partypooper]

2 cents worth, after many MANY years of research of mainly Pre-Post favs, and every filter known to man (inc the ridiculous)

The end result, and I'm not taking thousands of races I'm talking about 10,000's races, is:

most of the fav filters do indeed increase S/R (minimally) but in every scenario the dividend /(SP) spirals in exact proprtion (down that is)

having said that there is certain combinations of filters that produce break even situations year in year out, now, therein is a hint of wealth!!~

[beton]

2 cents worth, after many MANY years of research of mainly Pre-Post favs, and every filter known to man (inc the ridiculous)

The end result, and I'm not taking thousands of races I'm talking about 10,000's races, is:

most of the fav filters do indeed increase S/R (minimally) but in every scenario the dividend /(SP) spirals in exact proprtion (down that is)

having said that there is certain combinations of filters that produce break even situations year in year out, now, therein is a hint of wealth!!~

Partypooper pray tell Please

[max]

Tell us please.

A good evens staking plan can bring it into profit.

[Chrome Prince]

most of the fav filters do indeed increase S/R (minimally) but in every scenario the dividend /(SP) spirals in exact proprtion (down that is)


I'd have to agree with the above statement, getting the best price possible is one of the key filters, the other is observing the track money and betting when the climate is right.

[partypooper]

I refrained from actually suggesting filters as we all have our pet ones, but just to give a scenario:

take Shauns' idea, Radio top pick + Tipsters top pick on tracks dead or better.
where they both agree.

Ok, now delete Jumps, Amatuer, Apprentices races, ladies only races, races for Fillies And Mares only, horses ridden by a 3kg claimer,races of 2000+, races with 15+ runners , and horses having its first run, its still a bet

IF it is fav 1 min b4 the jump, or if you need to place bets b4 racing its a bet IF it is Pre-Post fav (always using the same source)

This has shown a break even (win) and a slight profit for the place,

but also the idea has shown only a 1% loss with no filters at all. over 1100 bets + (for the place that is)

[beton]

Partypooper
Aptly put and thank you. You alluded and you have alluded your alluded secret. One cannot ask anymore.

[partypooper]

Glad to be of assistance Beton,

[Mark]

Brisbane and Melbourne yesterday would have been a good place to start.

[darkydog2002]

Backmarker Favs at the 1000 M races has always intriqued me.