Ratings Update

[Shaun]

Since i have not looked at updating my ratings ideas in a few years and getting some mixed results i have decided to try a few changes and thought i would post my ideas for others to look at and maybe adjust for their own use.

Below you will see each category i use along with a brief explanation, i am using either a 10,8,6,4,2,0 or a 5,4,3,2,1,0 points ranking system, this is just a basic idea and would need further improvement.

API

Rank each runner based on the API value and assign the 10 point system.

Win%

Rank each runner from highest to lowest using 5 point system.

Place%

Rank each runner from highest to lowest using 5 point system.

Distance/Track

I was going to use percentage but found this to hard for example a runner with 1 start 1 win as opposed to a runner with 7 starts 5 wins so i decided to to use the number of wins and places so a runner with more wins and places would get a higher rating than one with less.

I decided to give a weighting to those runners that had won over those that had placed so i allocated points like this.

Double the number of wins so a runner that had 10:4-0-2 would get a score of 10 and a runner with 10:2-0-4 would get 8 i did the same for the track once i added all the figures i then ranked them in order highest to lowest and use the 5 point system.

Track Condition

If the track is rated slow or heavy i used the above method with a 5 point system.

Fitness

I calculated the days between the last run and second last run then added this together and ranked them lowest to highest then used the 10 point system.

Class

Class is always a difficult assignment with lots of different classes in each state so i decided to use the race prize money value as a guide, this not ideal but will do the job for now.

I looked at the last race prize value and compared it with today's value if the value is more today than the class is higher and if it is less then it is lower.

I then ranked them in order of the runner with the highest drop in class first using the 10 point system.

Form

I used the last 3 runs beaten margins and added them together to give me i final lengths beaten then i ranked them lowest to highest using the 10 point system.

Qtab Rating

I decided to use this as a final test just because i like them, these are ranked highest to lowest using the 10 point system.


That's it the max score is 70 if track conditions are soft otherwise 65 is the highest possible score.

I then used a calculation to get a price for each runner but because of the limited scores and the likely hood runners could be close in score i can't say the price will be accurate i will still need to work on that.

Here are a couple races for today that i ran this over.



Bendigo Race 6 Rated Price
1st 10 Saint Esprit $4.50
2nd 4 Diamondcowboy $6.59
3rd 6 Suvarna $6.59
4th 5 Nate $7.38
5th 3 Not A Snip A Doubt $9.71


Bendigo Race 7 Rated Price
1st 1 Zenawomann $4.58
2nd 6 Gracious Babe $4.92
3rd 4 Moxilady $5.79
4th 5 Floren $6.56
5th 7 Prussian Dancer $7.03


Rockhampton Race 3 Rated Price
1st 1 Falvadore $4.54
2nd 4 Left Behind $4.65
3rd 6 Fanciful $5.24
4th 5 Swift 'n' Dapper $6.59
5th 7 Martiros $10.76


Rockhampton Race 6 Rated Price
1st 3 Red Story $4.62
2nd 2 Cocktail Supreme $5.52
3rd 5 Craiglea Blondie $6.21
4th 1 Tantat Secret $8.64
5th 7 Paris Boy $9.94


Northam Race 6 Rated Price
1st 5 Talent Show $4.18
2nd 3 Chevic $7.39
3rd 2 Interange $8.01
4th 6 Gallipoli Prince $8.35
5th 10 Alaskan $9.61

[Try Try Again]

Hi Shaun,

Very interesting approach - good luck with your ratings.

One aspect that always "worries me" is horses that have had no starts at track or distance. You can not really penalise them as they have not had any starts at the track or distance, so they have no history. Compare this with a horse that has had 5 starts at distance for zero placings - do they score that same rating?

Your comments?

[thorns]

Shaun,

re your pricing thoughts, if you can get your head round this it could be of interest for your style of ratings.

http://www.racebase.co.nz/market.htm

[Shaun]

Yes i agree, seeing as this is a mathematical and automated approach i would need to come up with a better option, maybe i could look at the starts and work something out using that.

[Shaun]

Yes have seen that and although it never suited my old ratings it may suit this type, will check it out and compare the prices.

[Chrome Prince]

Class

Class is always a difficult assignment with lots of different classes in each state so i decided to use the race prize money value as a guide, this not ideal but will do the job for now.

I looked at the last race prize value and compared it with today's value if the value is more today than the class is higher and if it is less then it is lower.

I then ranked them in order of the runner with the highest drop in class first using the 10 point system.


Looks pretty good, but I've always found that using the median field career prizemoney, a better guide than race prizemoney.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Shaun,

Very interesting approach - good luck with your ratings.

One aspect that always "worries me" is horses that have had no starts at track or distance. You can not really penalise them as they have not had any starts at the track or distance, so they have no history. Compare this with a horse that has had 5 starts at distance for zero placings - do they score that same rating?

Your comments?

Agree, this is where a lot fall down.
Tend to rate horses with good track or distance too highly, because 0 starts also means 0 failures.
A horse should be penalised for failures, rather than rated because of success when it comes to track and distance.

In fact I find more success, doing reverse ratings.
i.e. all horses start with a rating and deduct points for various failures.
Also gets around the pricing issue, as bolters truely become bolters and favoured horses come up shorter than the other way.

...imho ;)

[Shaun]

Looks pretty good, but I've always found that using the median field career prizemoney, a better guide than race prizemoney.

Can you give me an example of this please.

[gunny72]

I agree that horses with no form at the track or distance should not have zero rating. It would be better to use say a 5 point scale and give these horses 3 points and have 4 points for horses that have performed reasonably well and 5 points for those that score extremely at the distance. Give 1 point for a horse that has many failures and 2 points for at least one failure.

I assume you would have had no bets on winners as your prices were above those on offer.

[Shaun]

Prices were not accurate today as i was still working on that part.

[Shaun]

I thought i would try this again, nothing changed on the ratings as yet but an adjustment to the pricing.



Canberra Acton Race 4 Rated Price
1st 4 Delabombell 2.31
2nd 7 Vilakazi Street 3.18
3rd 3 Moorings Capital 9.61
4th 1 Merci Grand 10.68
5th 2 He's In Demand 18.16


Broome Race 6 Rated Price
1st 7 Kooyong Road 3.92
2nd 2 Electronic Cross 4.09
3rd 4 Resume 4.92
4th 1 Xaarlington 5.72
5th 6 Eagle Peak 8.15

Geelong Syntheti Race 8 Rated Price
1st 5 Zachary Quack 2.95
2nd 1 Into The Sun 4.90
3rd 11 Isthistheone 5.14
4th 3 Guru Bay 7.61
5th 9 Princess Toshi 7.61

[max]

I always been interested in doing my own ratings to see how they compare. I see all the things you mention as good to rate on.

How how do you work this or is it a secret for now?

[Shaun]

Not sure what you mean by a secret i have shown what i do but if you have specific question ask away will give what ever answer i can.

[michaelg]

Shaun, I don't know if you are into exotics or check them with your selections, but today they snared the quinellas and trifectas in the three races for POT of more than 100%.

[Shaun]

Yeah nice result that.

[Shaun]

I thought i would see how these go with better quality races.

Flem 3 only has 4 selections because they stuffed up the form in that race on Cyberhorse.



Belmont Park Race 6 Rated Price
1st 10 Miss Tipsy Topsy $3.14
2nd 14 The Other Harv $3.39
3rd 1 Black Moment $5.53
4th 12 Svara $7.77
5th 13 Ladysea $12.96
Belmont Park Race 7 Rated Price
1st 6 All Friared Up $4.00
2nd 7 Blacksmith $4.23
3rd 10 Megem's Boy $5.35
4th 2 For Your Eyes Only $6.12
5th 5 Kasabian $6.12
Eagle Farm Race 6 Rated Price
1st 5 The Sixties $3.83
2nd 6 Favela Star $4.92
3rd 1 Age Of Heroes $5.19
4th 2 Tierqualo $5.83
5th 9 Brigadoon Jack $5.83
Eagle Farm Race 7 Rated Price
1st 4 Mystical Grey $3.49
2nd 2 Frozone $3.82
3rd 9 Nicole Amy $6.12
4th 5 Meet George $6.51
5th 1 Hume $7.42
Eagle Farm Race 8 Rated Price
1st 1 Hampden $2.59
2nd 6 Tomboy $4.13
3rd 3 Equissential $5.68
4th 2 River Lad $9.82
5th 5 Rodrigeuz $10.68
Flemington Race 3 Rated Price
1st 6 Module $4.06
2nd 2 Light Vision $4.71
3rd 3 La Rocket $4.97
4th 7 Conquering Journey $5.55

Flemington Race 6 Rated Price
1st 3 Warm Love $3.40
2nd 2 Definitely Ready $4.40
3rd 1 Wilander $5.35
4th 6 Ortayga $5.96
5th 5 Tollesprit $8.07
Flemington Race 7 Rated Price
1st 9 Riceman $3.03
2nd 1 Jeuneyman $4.77
3rd 7 Testascana $5.03
4th 6 Tiakinui $6.73
5th 8 Sweet Talking Guy $8.90
Flemington Race 8 Rated Price
1st 1 Elumino $3.21
2nd 6 Volando $3.60
3rd 4 Charlie's Queen $6.64
4th 8 Gossip Girl $7.46
5th 9 Winged Charm $7.94
Morphettville Race 5 Rated Price
1st 2 Beyond Pardon $2.72
2nd 1 Periduki $3.41
3rd 7 The Long Road $7.46
4th 4 River's Lane $9.74
5th 6 Jaalippy $9.74
Warwick Farm Race 5 Rated Price
1st 4 Skytrain $2.87
2nd 3 Rain Affair $2.99
3rd 10 Yoburg $5.96
4th 5 Jest Crewsin' $12.64
5th 7 Rightson $14.17
Townsville Race 6 Rated Price
1st 3 Mondean $3.88
2nd 1 Kanetoshi King $4.09
3rd 11 Siena's Pride $4.32
4th 12 Agent Blue $6.72
5th 8 Mazuka $8.54
Townsville Race 7 Rated Price
1st 2 Danagaze $3.24
2nd 6 Hussonator $4.42
3rd 3 Magnum Forty Four $5.44
4th 1 Common Objective $6.48
5th 15 Matiya's Pride $7.88

[Chrome Prince]

I thought i would see how these go with better quality races.

Flem 3 only has 4 selections because they stuffed up the form in that race on Cyberhorse.




Shaun you might like to redownload the form, I have nine runners.

[Shaun]

I ment i only had 4 selections because it selected the same horse twice if you look at http://formguide.cyberhorse.com.au/index.php/Form/form.html?formdate=2011-07-23&track=Flem&raceno=3

you will see they had Module listed twice with different stats.

[Dennis G]

you will see they had Module listed twice with different stats.
Shaun, that's not all that unusual for them. Most times it happens you'll find different trainers are listed for each entry.
I dunno if they're aware of it or not. I just use a SS column to alert me if the one name comes up twice. Keeps me on me toes.....:)

[Shaun]

Yeah i might add that in mine as i have seen it a few times.

[lomaca]

I dunno if they're aware of it or not. Aware of it?
It's deliberate I think, I use the paid for zip files and never a problem!

[Shaun]

Belmont Park Race 6 Rated Price
1st 10 Miss Tipsy Topsy $3.14 3.80
2nd 14 The Other Harv $3.39
3rd 1 Black Moment $5.53
4th 12 Svara $7.77
5th 13 Ladysea $12.96
Belmont Park Race 7 Rated Price
1st 6 All Friared Up $4.00 7.50
2nd 7 Blacksmith $4.23
3rd 10 Megem's Boy $5.35
4th 2 For Your Eyes Only $6.12
5th 5 Kasabian $6.12
Eagle Farm Race 6 Rated Price
1st 5 The Sixties $3.83
2nd 6 Favela Star $4.92
3rd 1 Age Of Heroes $5.19
4th 2 Tierqualo $5.83 3.50
5th 9 Brigadoon Jack $5.83
Eagle Farm Race 7 Rated Price
1st 4 Mystical Grey $3.49
2nd 2 Frozone $3.82
3rd 9 Nicole Amy $6.12
4th 5 Meet George $6.51
5th 1 Hume $7.42
Eagle Farm Race 8 Rated Price
1st 1 Hampden $2.59
2nd 6 Tomboy $4.13
3rd 3 Equissential $5.68
4th 2 River Lad $9.82
5th 5 Rodrigeuz $10.68
Flemington Race 3 Rated Price
1st 6 Module $4.06 1.90
2nd 2 Light Vision $4.71
3rd 3 La Rocket $4.97
4th 7 Conquering Journey $5.55

Flemington Race 6 Rated Price
1st 3 Warm Love $3.40 2.90
2nd 2 Definitely Ready $4.40
3rd 1 Wilander $5.35
4th 6 Ortayga $5.96
5th 5 Tollesprit $8.07
Flemington Race 7 Rated Price
1st 9 Riceman $3.03
2nd 1 Jeuneyman $4.77
3rd 7 Testascana $5.03 2.20
4th 6 Tiakinui $6.73
5th 8 Sweet Talking Guy $8.90
Flemington Race 8 Rated Price
1st 1 Elumino $3.21
2nd 6 Volando $3.60
3rd 4 Charlie's Queen $6.64
4th 8 Gossip Girl $7.46 4.80
5th 9 Winged Charm $7.94
Morphettville Race 5 Rated Price
1st 2 Beyond Pardon $2.72
2nd 1 Periduki $3.41 5.40
3rd 7 The Long Road $7.46
4th 4 River's Lane $9.74
5th 6 Jaalippy $9.74
Warwick Farm Race 5 Rated Price
1st 4 Skytrain $2.87
2nd 3 Rain Affair $2.99 1.20
3rd 10 Yoburg $5.96
4th 5 Jest Crewsin' $12.64
5th 7 Rightson $14.17
Townsville Race 6 Rated Price
1st 3 Mondean $3.88
2nd 1 Kanetoshi King $4.09
3rd 11 Siena's Pride $4.32
4th 12 Agent Blue $6.72
5th 8 Mazuka $8.54
Townsville Race 7 Rated Price
1st 2 Danagaze $3.24
2nd 6 Hussonator $4.42 3.20
3rd 3 Magnum Forty Four $5.44
4th 1 Common Objective $6.48
5th 15 Matiya's Pride $7.88

[max]

I've obviously missed soemthing then Shaun as I cannot replicate what you are doing with the info in this thread, but then I am still a little new to all this, especially ratings as I have always avoided it till now.

[Shaun]

I will give you an example of 1 runner from a race today, all results are after scratchings removed

Muswellbrook Race 5
2 FASHION STATEMENT

Highest API position 1 = 10 Points

5th Rated in win% = 1 Point

3rd Rated in place% = 3 Points

Dist form 2:0-0-1 track form 0:0-0-0 gives him 1 point and makes it equal 5th rated = 2 Points

As track is rated Dead nothing added for going.

Days since L/S 12 2ndL/S 33 add these together and rank 3 = 6 Points

Class last race was $27000 today is $20000 so down $7000 rank 1 = 10 Points

Last 3 beaten margins it rated lower than the top 5 = 0 Points
(This could be an interesting stat as the last 3 runs were poor)

Qtab Rating 92 2nd rated = 8 Points

Total = 40

here are the ratings for that race.

No2 40.00
No3 48.00
No4 43.00
No5 35.00
No6 11.00
No7 21.00
No8 8.00

To get the prices i use the method from this site http://www.racebase.co.nz/market.htm
Then i convert this to a 100% market but still working on the price part.

Even with the prices done the rating order does not change so if you can get that part right then you would get the same runners.

If you are doing it with a manual process i would just do the top races of the day, i have found i get better results from these and will be doing the same.

The race i have done is the highest prize money on offer for today.

[max]

Wow! How long does it take to do all this?

btw, what is "API"?

[Shaun]

Because i import everything i need in to excel takes me about 30 seconds a race.

API is the Average Prizemoney Index this is the average amount of money won at each start, the higher the average the more the horse has won, it is one way of working out the class runner of the race in some sense.

[Dennis G]

API is the Average Prizemoney Index....it is one way of working out the class runner of the race in some sense.Unfortunately this figure can be quite out of sync some times, must be vigilant to make sure very large APIs are justified.

Because i import everything i need in to excel takes me about 30 seconds a race.

Yeah, Shaun, it just goes to show that having Excel as a tool is almost essential to statistical punters these days. It really isn't that hard to learn the basics and I find it very enjoyable to work with.

[Shaun]

Dennis, you might be able to help me out with this problem i have.

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=22134

[Dennis G]

Shaun,
I had the same difficulties a few months back - after googling til I went google, I never actually did solve the problem. It seems to only affect columns A & B.
I managed to work around it as the data that was scrambled was data I didn't need at that time.
I might go to MrExcel to see if I can find a solution.

[Shaun]

Yeah i am after the Dist/Trak/Going info sometimes it is fine and other times no good, seams when the starts is over 10 it gets scrambled.

[Dennis G]

.
I might go to MrExcel to see if I can find a solution.Not much joy there either. The only response I got was - "If the cell format is "General" it takes the value as you have indicated.
However, if cell format is "Text" then it remains as it is!
Did you try formatting first 2 columns to text?" and now buried on page 12 :(<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

[Shaun]

Yep tried to format as text the whole sheet but as soon as i import the next page it just changes it back, i am thinking there is a setting i can use to not import the formats but i have tried everything i know.

[lomaca]

Yep tried to format as text the whole sheet but as soon as i import the next page it just changes it back, i am thinking there is a setting i can use to not import the formats but i have tried everything i know.Hi Shaun,
I don't use Excel as such for this, but did have a look at the page source on the Cyber site, and as expected the formatting is the same for every race, so it's definitely an Excel peculiarity.

I will look at it and let you know.
Cheers

[lomaca]

Hi Shaun,
I don't use Excel as such for this, but did have a look at the page source on the Cyber site, and as expected the formatting is the same for every race, so it's definitely an Excel peculiarity.

I will look at it and let you know.
CheersHad a quick look, nothing to do with the number of runs, some with over 20 runs are OK some with less then 10 is not.
I actually saved the page and edited the number of runs and still comes out as date for some reason.
Will work on it later.
Cheers

[lomaca]

Had a quick look, nothing to do with the number of runs, some with over 20 runs are OK some with less then 10 is not.
I actually saved the page and edited the number of runs and still comes out as date for some reason.
Will work on it later.
CheersSorry Shaun, can't work it out, it's frustrating but for some reason you have to format the cells for "General" before entering somet like "6:0-1-2" and even so, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.

No answer on the net either yet, but I'm sure there is a solution, I just haven't got it.

Drives you mad, glad I'm using a database and not Excel.

Good luck with it, let us know if you find anything.
Cheers

[Dennis G]

Not much joy there either. The only response I got was - "If the cell format is "General" it takes the value as you have indicated.
However, if cell format is "Text" then it remains as it is!
Did you try formatting first 2 columns to text?" and now buried on page 12 :(<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->I 'bumped' the thread to see if I got any more bites. Obviously wrong bait, it disappeared off the end the page again. Even the gurus don't seem to know...

[moeee]

If you have disabled date recognition , then surely it won't display as a date - or does it still?

[Shaun]

Still does

[lomaca]

Still doesI wonder if you still have the older version of Excel, maybe it's a "feature" of the latest one only.
Unfortunately I only have the latest.
Just wondering?

[Shaun]

2010 Professional

[lomaca]

2010 ProfessionalSorry, what I meant was if you still can access to the older version, you could check if it's the fault in the new one only?

[Shaun]

Yes i see what you mean, i just installed an SSD drive on here for the OS so i need to re install Virtual XP then i can load office 2002 and see if it is the same.

That's one thing i love about Win 7 is the ability to run a virtual XP OS as it is built in you don't even need XP license.

[lomaca]

Yes i see what you mean, i just installed an SSD drive on here for the OS so i need to re install Virtual XP then i can load office 2002 and see if it is the same.

That's one thing i love about Win 7 is the ability to run a virtual XP OS as it is built in you don't even need XP license.

True but I found it to be much slower than using Virtual PC and installing XP there.
VP is really indispensable for me.
I still run DOS and some older Windows OS's ( I have people relying on programmes running on older platforms, that will not run successfully even in simulation in Vista or Win7)

Still this behavior of Excel you are having problems with is weird to say the least.

[Shaun]

I may look for another source of free form, i understand the ACT tab have a nice one, will have to check it out.