Okay I have had enough

[max]

I have spent enough time and effort over the years trying to find an edge in the numbers and I don't have enough knowledge of the industry to look at form, etc so I have now come to an uncomfortable junction.

I have to give up entirely and forget making any pocket money via punting or spend a little money now to get a system that actually works.

Soooo,

Can anyone recommend a purchasable system that they know works?

I bought many systems from PPM and some other mags years ago and still have some of them but they really do not work at all.

I know the age old cry of "why sell a system that works" but surely there must be 1 that works somewhere?

Any ideas?

Also, in case you want to make a suggestion privately, use max stuff 09 @ g mail . com

Sorry for the rant but today my frustration meter is a little lower than normal after spending the past 3 days putting all the results information into my spreadsheet tracking market favourites at Morning, 10mins out, 5mins out, 1 mins out and Closed for every race for the past 2 months (over 1500 races) and hours of poking and prodding revealling nothing at all to rely on.

[moeee]

I know the age old cry of "why sell a system that works" but surely there must be 1 that works somewhere?

Any ideas?



You get what you pays for buddy.

GOLD is going for around $1500 an ounce.
Why would anybody sell something that makes money for less than it is worth?

And who wants to pay BIG Bucks for something that may not be suitable even though it may work.

You must understand that if you don't work hard , you won't get the results.
And I'm sure you are working hard Max, but from what I've seen of your posts, You are looking at the wrong information and you are pushing ******** uphill.

If I was winning , I'ld love to help you out , but I ain't, but one thing I do know , you have to really want to succeed , if you want to succeed.
If you want results , but don't want to work hard at it , and in the right direction, best give it away buddy.

[Barny]

moeee, you sound like a politician, lots of platitudes but no substance. You've told Max he's looking at the wrong information but you fail to offer an alternative.

Max, 'ol son I'll help you out ..... seriously!

Go back through ALL the posts on here, it's worth it. Forget about blindly following a system that's been statistically proven to have worked over several years simply because the data used for that system may be flawed.

Among many systems there's a very good one posted way back, but still here, that shows good profit and it's logical. Looking deeper at the S/R and average price of the winners, one could conclude that a few longshots maybe have gotten this system over the line. But it would still be profitable without these longshots.

I can understand your frustration because many systems do work and work well, but I'm guessing that the reason the "published" systems fail is that too many people jump on the back of them and force the price down to a level where they show a loss.

Don't disregard "simple" systems that take into account top 2 tipsters, pre-post etc, etc. It's not my go but there are just some recurring things in racing that seem to go back to the year dot.

Forget your frustration and start afresh and read ALL the posts on here. Do say 5 pages a day, it'll take a while but there's some really good information in there. Sometimes you need to read between the lines and maybe connect the dots from various sources but it can be done.

We're told there's a small percentage of punters who regularly win. There's a lot of mugs out there with too much money who lose the lot, there's a lot of perennial losers who find a successful method and jump off when it goes astray only to jump on to another successful method and jump off when it goes astray. They've lost when they could have won?!

The systems with too many rules, form, distance, days between runs will reurn a loss. Backfitted systems are dangerous. Follow the herd and you're guranteed to at best lose the TAB take out of 15%, or the lot of you have no self control.

Start reading Max ..........

[Barny]

Max, it's important to start at the oldest posts first.

[michaelg]

Hi, Max.

Have you thought of laying instead of betting? I know not everyone likes this type of wagering but you might be pleasantly surprised.

The illustrious Maria who turned a bank of 3,000 to 100,000 pounds sterling in the period of one year admitted she would not win if she bet.

I haven't had a bet for quite some time because I now lay and have been having success both here and in England. And I'm under the impression I am not the only one on this forum to do this.

[Barny]

Look at it this way MAX.

Say you personally know 10 punters, some of whom regularly lose, but don't care too much, one or two who have a serious problem chasing their losses and gamble way too much, and the few who "broke about even today" (read did their cash).

Maybe between the lot they've tipped in $30k a year. Except for the TAB takeout Max, that's yours for the taking provided you don't do the same as these 10 punters.

It's all on this site!

[darkydog2002]

Max,
I,ve got over 600 "commercial" systems from the 2 major system sellers and I can you now none of them are worth a bumper.
Dont waste your money.

Far better to buy the Wizard online for saturday ($5.50) and the ratings and prices for the next 6 days are free.

Alternatively if you concentrate on the r+s ratings (asessed price of $2 or shorter) and have a set MINIMUM acceptable price of $2 TAB or bookie you,ll do far better than any system.

Cheers
darky

[Shaun]

I will give my little bit of advice and that is to just concentrate on the best races of the day, there is no need to win every race in fact you will more than likely lose if you do.

Every punter has there idea of the best races i like to choose the best class or best prizemoney, for today i will only bet on Sandown race 3,5,6,7 this may not be everyone's idea of a smart move but at least it cuts down on the workload.

if you feel the need to bet in every race then just treat this as entertainment and budget for small stakes.

if you want a simple method for those 4 races look at the Unitab Radio tips and the guest tipster and assign points like this.

1st selected = 4 points
2nd selected = 3 points
3rd selected = 2 points
4th selected = 1 points

Back the top 4 runners on points if you have an equal 4th selection use the Qtab ratings to split them taking the highest rated runner first.

[moeee]

Your post has been deleted. Please do not flame. Moderator.

[Shaun]

Here are the selections for Race 3

1=8
5=5
6=2
3=2

[Barny]

So here we are Max. Darkydog2002 has 600 systems none of which work and moeee is still trying to find a winning method. I recall a great contributor here called crash who admitted in one post that he didn't win, that surprised me. His posts were quite brilliant and informative. They certainly weren't statistically based, nor did he put a great deal of faith in systems.

It seems that no one is winning?

Say there's a pool of $100k at the TAB. The TAB takes out $15k and that leaves $85k to be distributed to punters. What percentage of consistently dumb (follow the herd) money makes up that representative and "on-going" $85k?

[moeee]

What percentage of consistently dumb (follow the herd) ?

Perhaps there may be an error in your premise that following the herd is dumb.

In Following Market Moves , the Punter is trying to get a Free Ride into some unknown data that obviously somebody is willing to invest a large sum of their hard earned on.

I don't do it myself , unless the animal is one of my predetermined selections.

[max]

Thanks for your replies guys. Some have made me laugh, like Shaun's selections for Race 3 which came in in the order he rated them. ************!

I guess I tend to get bogged down in volume and detail because I can be very predantic at times and want to see the bigger picture in case I miss out on something off to the side.

I would be happy to only bet on a few races a day or even a few a week if I knew they would overral return a regular profit.

At the moment I am testing about 20 systems all based on my own theories and on things I have picked up on this site (yes I have been backreading about 20 pages a day, and no I have not found the system you are referring to as just about every 10th page has something new that I end up testing).

I am a destination guy not a journey guy. If I don't think something is worthwhile doing it then I am not going to invest my time and effort finding out. Thats probably why I dropped the electric guitar at age 20 - if I can't be sure I'll be good, then why bother. Life is way too short and I have so many things competing for my time and effort.

I was hoping crunching some numbers over time (something I am very good at) would reveal some sort of strategy to follow which would return a little profit, but alas, nothing has jumped out as yet.

Okay I will not buy a system. I will continue trolling through the hundreds of pages of this forum and continue to take the myriads of data into excel each day and see what else I can find.

I guess it boils down to 1 question - IS IT POSSIBLE?

I hear from lots on this forum that are claiming they don't make profits and yet I would consider them more likely than me to do so - so am I kidding myself?

[Shaun]

Race 5

2=5
4=5
5=5
9=5

This will be interesting, they all rated the same and i used the Qtab ratings to separate them.

[max]

So Shaun how would you back these? Grouped for 1st 4? Boxed Trifecta? 1 unit on each?

[max]

So far I have been looking at:

1st Favourites only
backing 3, 4, 5 favs
backing 3rd favourite at the same time prior to each race (5mins) - 1st 6 races of the day only
1st Fav Race 1's only
top 5 morning odds for the day only
1st runner at 10/1
Rosehill Barrier 1
Radio and Tipster matching 1st fav

plus published systems such as:
Sports Betting Shark
Natural Selections
Zipform

and a few others

So what some of you are saying is to forget the market odds and the morning paper odds as most of that is derived by the market and they are in fact losing on a daily basis?

What should I be better off looking at?

[Shaun]

I would just back the top 2, but that's me you could take Quinellas or if the prices are there to back all of them.

In that first race backing top 2 was only choice.

[max]

Why? Because there was only 2 that got above the 50% mark (5 or above)?

I find a lot of the races on Unitab site do not have a Radio and Tipster tip. In fact only about 25% of the meets have both.

Is there a better source for looking for 2 tipsters?

[moeee]

What should I be better off looking at?

Are you familiar with OVERLAYS?

Overlays are essential to Punting as cement is to concrete.
You don't have to know why cement makes concrete goes hard, but you sure as ******** better make sure you have it in there.

If you have dismissed Overlays as not being useful then you are lost.
If you haven't grasped the concept , then read up on the subject.

[Shaun]

Race 6

1=6
4=6
5=3
8=3

[max]

I know what an Overlay is but what I could never work out was what to compare to what?

Morning Published Price in Papers versus Prices 5mins before jump?
Own ratings versus TAB morning odds?

What is compared to what?

I did find some reference to TAB Prices versus HRT Prices but what time of the day am I to check the TAB Prices and what the heck are HRT Prices?

[max]

Shaun

Race 5 was 11,5,9
Race 6 was 1,5,7

Nice.

So if you take the top rating races for the day including all tracks, where do you drawn the line? The top 4 races of the day? The top race from each meet? Any races above a certain prize money?

[Shaun]

My personal liking is to take the best races of the day over all tracks, this can be difficult at times due to lower price values in each state but the way i look at it, if you have to similar class of race in each state you will still have the best class of runner for that state in that race.

Saturday races i go no lower than Open class and midweek is 70 rated, these are just guidelines i like to work with and it helps to cut down on the number of races you bet in, no more than 6 races a day, to be honest i should have just stuck with race 3 even though it is the same value as the other races i chose it was still the only Open class race on today, apart from 2yo races but i don't bet in those as i like the form to be visible.

[Shaun]

Race 7

2=7
9=7
6=4
4=1

[max]

Gottcha!

Very very interesting. Thanks Shaun.

[Shaun]

The stuff i posted about Unitab i won't say it is the best option but there ratings are very good and just as good as any around, the way you select your races and runners is always up to you but i feel limited amount of races is better that trying to beat the card.

[max]

2,8,9 Shaun well done again.

[Shaun]

Not a bad day, my own personal ratings were very similar to the ones i posted and these are the prices i got

$2.40
$3.20
$3.80
Outlay 8 Units
Return 9.4 Units
Profit 1.4 Units
POT 17.5%

That is a nice profit backing 2 horses a race.

[moeee]

I know what an Overlay is but what I could never work out was what to compare to what?



This statement suggests you do not know what an Overlay is.

If you are not prepared to find out exactly what it is, then you are doomed to continue feeding them that do.

Overlays are Prices that you can obtain , that are higher than what you have reasonably accurately calculated that they should be.

IT REQUIRES HARDWORK!!!

[max]

you have reasonably accurately calculated that they should be.

This is what I mean. How long is a piece of string?

[moeee]

This is what I mean. How long is a piece of string?

Yes - I understand.

Well , going by my struggles , it is at least 20 years and growing :)

But when and if I get to the end , I'll be sure to let you know Max

[lomaca]

I would be happy to only bet on a few races a day or even a few a week if I knew they would overral return a regular profit.
max
give me an Email eddy and I post you the rules.
This is a variation on Michaelg' neural system. NOT mine!

I don't personally use it because the profit margin is only about 8% and I go for long shots while these tend to be on the shorter side.
There are only a few bets a day but that wouldn't bother me because I have even fewer bets than that, but I make a heck of a lot larger profit with my ratings.

I'm not going to post it here because I did it before and got a lot of smart-alecky remarks.

Yesterday's selections were :
Geelong race 4 #2
Mackay race 3 #2
race 4 #3
race 7 #1

Today

Doomben race 1 #4
race 3 #5

Darwin race 6 #3 (two placings and probably tooooo short)

Murray B race 4 # 2
race 5 #2
race 6 #6

As I said I don't bet it but I programmed the rules into my rating programme so I automatically see the results when checking the days racing.

One could do a lot worse.

[max]

I'm open to anything at this stage mate. Thanks

max stuff 09 @ g mail . com

[lomaca]

max
give me an Email eddy and I post you the rules.
This is a variation on Michaelg' neural system. NOT mine!

I don't personally use it because the profit margin is only about 8% and I go for long shots while these tend to be on the shorter side.
There are only a few bets a day but that wouldn't bother me because I have even fewer bets than that, but I make a heck of a lot larger profit with my ratings.

I'm not going to post it here because I did it before and got a lot of smart-alecky remarks.

Yesterday's selections were :
Geelong race 4 #2
Mackay race 3 #2
race 4 #3
race 7 #1

Today

Doomben race 1 #4
race 3 #5

Darwin race 6 #3 (two placings and probably tooooo short)

Murray B race 4 # 2
race 5 #2
race 6 #6

As I said I don't bet it but I programmed the rules into my rating programme so I automatically see the results when checking the days racing.

One could do a lot worse.Ooops I forgot to mention it's basically a place betting system with the occasional winners!

[Barny]

moeee, i understand where you're coming from with the overlay thingy ..... It gives one peace of mind and lets you sleep very well at night. Personally I prefer an underlay!

Any price a winner ............

[moeee]

Any price a winner ............

That may be fine for you Barny , but MY Bookie won't let me get on after the Race :(

[gunny72]

Max,
I haven't read that you have considered place percent. I am sure you will find this is an excellent starting point. There are many possibilities where you can get winners that others often miss and so the odds are better. This is what overlays really mean in practice.

For example try this:
Ignore 2yo and 3yo races.
Consider races up to 2000m.
Consider all horses with a spell in their last six form figures.
Eliminate any that have won since the recent spell.
Select the horse from those remaining with the highest place percent. (Or the top two if you like to bet two)

[The Ocho]

Hi max.

Have you tried trading on Betfair?

I turned $50 into $3000 in about 1 year trading most Saturdays and Sundays on the Aussie horse (bearing in mind at the start I was only starting out and trading small amounts). I withdrew something like $2000 to buy a couple of laptops for my daughters and some other stuff.

To be honest, after a while, I got a bit sick of sitting in front of the computer and so I bought 1 bot and then another in an attempt at making some "easy" money using whatever system I could find or think of.

Long story, short, I was down to my last $15 and, as the missus won't let me put in more money, I was forced to go back to trading.

I've started trading again most Saturdays and some Sundays and, since the Queens Birthday weekend here in Melbourne I have turned the $15 into $285 which I am quite proud of. :)

Maybe trading might be for you. You don't have to worry which horse wins or losers as you make money either way if the trade turns out right.

[Barny]

[QUOTE=The Ocho]

"" Long story, short, I was down to my last $15 and, as the missus won't let me put in more money, ""

I don't know how to do the quote thingy !

The Ocho ..... I got a really good laugh out of your comment about your missus ! BTW, I'm not laughing at you ..... that would be hypocritical !! lol

[The Ocho]

No problems Barny :)

By the way, you just click on the little "Quote" button to the bottom right hand side of any post you want to quote and then just delete the lines you don't want making sure you keep the little squiggly bits at the start and end of the quote.

[max]

Thanks Gunny. I will take a look at that.

Ocho. I have no idea what Trading is. I am open to anything and will do a little research but in the meantime, anything you can explain here would be helpful.

[The Ocho]

Hi Max, This is part of my attempt at describing trading from another thread here. By the way I use free software called The Geeks Toy to do my trading:

Trading is simply backing a horse at one price and then laying it at a lower price (or vice versa).

If you make a good trade with even amounts for the back and lay side you will then have a free bet on that particular horse meaning if the horse wins you win that amount but if the horse losers, you lose nothing.

Example:
Lets say the odds for Horse X are $5.1 and 5.0 meaning you can back it at $5 and lay it at $5.1.
You place a $100 BACK bet at $5.1 and hopefully get matched. (You will now win $410 if the horse wins [$5.1-1] but lose $100 if it losers).
You then place a $100 LAY bet at $5.0 and hopefully get matched.
You will now win $100 if the horse losers but lose $400 if the horse wins ($5.0-1).

With the above scenario you now have a $10 "free" bet on horse X. You will win $10 if the horse wins and lose nothing if the horse losers.

You then hedge the $10 free bet (done by the software) by then placing a lay bet (I think) on that horse using the $10 that you have made and dividing it into the price of the horse at the time (this is just one click on the software). So, if the horses odds are $5 you will hedge the bet so that $2 is won no matter if that horse wins OR losers ($10 / $5 = $2). That's a guaranteed return in that race and is called GREENING UP where the $2 figure is against every horse in the race and is in green. Repeat this during the race day and you can make some money. Repeat that again during the same race and you would then be dividing $20 into $5 odds giving you $4 for the race and so on.

If you like a particular horse to win then don't hedge and you have a free bet but with me, I have no idea who might win so I hedge every race. It can soon build up. The only problem at the moment is that the liquidity is still not great on the Aussie racing particularly after the 2nd or 3rd favorite.

I hope people understand that. If anyone wants to try, please be careful. Trading is not for everyone and I would start with the minimum $5 bet just to get the hang of it. The best thing about trading is the challenge while the worst is sitting in front of the computer all day and also being stubborn thinking the price will come back to where you think it should be. Get out ASAP if the price is heading in the wrong direction and RED-UP. There will always be another race come along as long as you have some money in your account.

[Shaun]

These are the best races today in my opinion.

Rockhampton 2
Ballarat 6
Wyong 8

[moeee]

I have trouble believing you have made that incredible Profit from Trading Ocho.

But you the one who done it , so you would surely know much better than me.

Well done.
Just goes to show not to judge people by what you see.

What I find most interesting is that you were doing so well trading , but gave it away and tried applying your knowledge to numerous other methods , but failed dismally.
And when you returned to trading , suddenly massive Profits returned.

[The Ocho]

Hi Moeee

Each to their own I guess. Trading is one of those things that you either can or can't do, I find, as do many others on a few other forums.

It's strange, but you need to be in sync with the market otherwise you're stuffed. At the beginning of each session (most probably for the above reason) I often lose and so start out with small stakes and then go from there.

If you don't believe me that's fine (I don't need to prove anything to anyone).

[Shaun]

I have tried my hand at trading the UK markets and the profits per race can be small in comparison to your stake, i was trading 1 tick movements with $200 stakes and would turn over $2000 a race for a $10 profit if i was lucky.

I tried the Aus market but the price movements were strange at times and would only suggest it for major race days.

It can be long hours in front of the screen watching the prices move and if a price went against you you had to make the decision to trade out with a loss, i never traded in-play but did get caught a couple times when the race started.

[The Ocho]

Hi Shaun, I can't trade the UK markets at one tick at a time as all I do is lose but when I get a chance (not often) I trade the trend.

Trading is hard work and you're right, you only make a small amount compared to your stake but it does add up over time. Saturdays are the best for the Aussie races as the liquidity on other days can be a bit light on but even then that can present opportunities.

As I've said it's not for everyone.

[Shaun]

These are the best races today in my opinion.

Rockhampton 2
Ballarat 6
Wyong 8


Rockhampton 2
Selections 1,2 win 1 $2.30

Ballarat 6
Selections 3,9 win 3 $3.40

Wyong 8
Selections 2,3 win 3 $4.60

Outlay 6 Units
Return 10.3 Units
Profit 4.3 units
POT 71.66%

Thank you very much

[peakester]

Congrats Shaun

- best of luck for future selections

[Jack]

[QUOTE=lomaca]max
give me an Email eddy and I post you the rules.
This is a variation on Michaelg' neural system. NOT mine!

Would like to have a look at the variation of Michealg's neural system my email is agean31@optusnet DOT com DOT au (cryptic)

Regards and thanks

[Barny]

Max, Wot say you a loosely described stable based system?

Rules for selecting a horse to back for one or several runs;

1) This is a little starchy so it might be called judgement rather than a rule, but it’s my number one eliminator. Eliminate 2 y/o. DO NOT back a 3 y/o, or older where the horse had good, or great 2 y/o form as it’s probably had the guts run out of it. They very rarely come up after a successful 2y/o campaign

2) I base my selection of a horse to follow for one orseveral runs on S/R % - that’s the essence to the system. Blindly following a set S/R % will lead youto the poor house but there’s a couple of the most logical filters that onceapplied have resulted in many double figure winners, quite a few in the 20’sand 30’s and the odd one or two longer. This is an individual horse selection method, it’s NOT handicapping arace to find the best horse at whatever …..

3) I disregard distance, course, trainer, weight, barrier,sex of the horse, jockey, condition of the track, first up (had several goodwinners where there was NO evidence of first up form), second up and so on, andall the rest of the form filters.

This system is guaranteed to continue coming in with regular/ consistent winners because it’s LOGICAL and SIMPLE in it’s method of pickingout a good horse. If my selection methodfails, then good horses will be inconsistent and won’t qualify!, and goodhorses won’t win races and again won’t qualify. The whole universe will become a contradiction. It would be like saying Cadel Evans is agreat cyclist but can’t ride a bike or that Rory McIlroy is one of the bestgolfers in the world but can’t break 90.

There are races where several horses qualify and I apply thesame logic to end up with one horse as I do when I select a horse to follow,only this time there is an elimination system of qualified horses.

There’s been a couple of different posters suggesting thestable method. I don’t use the stablemethod but one of the posts suggested that 70% of city class horses will winwithin 5 starts. Now I don’t know thatto be true, but if you go through a form guide when there’s a decent days Metroracing and look at each individual horse you’ll find a lot of decent priced winners. There might be 16 runners in a good raceshowing the last 5 runs of each horse = 80 bets. Add up all the win odds and you might bepleasantly surprised, so there’s merit in this particular stable system. As I said it’s not for me because you mayhave horses on the downward spiral and just be throwing good money afterbad. On the other hand you may have acouple of good ‘uns, but this is much harder than it sounds, at least it is forme.

The other poster gave a ranking to each horse won or placedin Group races. Dunno, but I do rememberTears I Cry winning a group race then being unable to find another suitablerace for well over one year. But I guessif you can find a Group class horse then they’ll win and some at good odds, butthis isn’t for me either.



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[Barny]

re rule No. 1), a 2 y/o that's been sparingly raced and educated is OK to include in the stable later on as a 3 y/o or older. Just not a 2 y/o where it's been targetted for the Blue diamond, Magic Millions or any other decent 2 y/o race and has had the guts raced out of it.

[Barny]

Max, When you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to stop and think ..... The money ain't where everyone else is.