LAY Betting Percentage Return

[4legs]

A very basic question, but one which is leaving me a little perplexed!

Example:
Betting Betfair SP min $30.
100 races laying 5 selections per race
Profit $100.

a) Do I say ROI is: 100 x $30 = $3,000. Percent return = 100/3000 = 3.33% (ie use the number of races)

or

b) Do i say POT is: 500 x $30 = $15,000. Percent return = 100/15000 = 0.67% (ie number of bets).

I have started laying Oz races for August and I am showing 2.46% return using calculation method (a) above and I am trying to find a measure to see if this is satisfactory. If I should be using calculation method (b) above then what I am doing is hopeless!

Many thanks ... Fred

[Bhagwan]

Thats a good question .

If you where win betting you would entertain method B.
Because thats the amount at risk, so when laying it would be similar because thats the amount Betfair take out of our account.
So technically I guess method B is the true indicator,

But to keep things simple, I use method A

[Shaun]

Just do it the way you would for win betting, What ever you payout is your outlay and what ever you win is your return.

For example

If i lay 100 runners @$100 = $10,000 this is my return.
If i paid out in liabilities $8,000 this is my payout.
Results $10,000-$8,000 = Profit $2,000
POT $8,000/$2,000 = 25%

[Ramraider]

Its all about risk and return.

Profit is the return for risk.

If you make a back bet of $30 on a horse, the most you can lose is $30. Do that for 100 races and you have outlayed (risked) $3000. If your payout is $3100, then your $100 in front. Therefore your profit as a percentage of the amount of money you have risked is $100/$3000 x 100 = 3.33%.

Now i know this is pretty simple stuff, and I'm sure I'm not telling you anything you dont know, but working out profits on lay betting is exactly the same. Your profit calculated as a percentage of the amount you have risked.

If you lay 5 horses in the one race, each to a liability of $30, only one of them can win, so the most you are risking in any one race is $30. So if you end up $100 in front after 100 races, then the calculations are exactly the same as above - 3.33%

the only difference is with back betting, your putting your $30 on up front, whereas with lay betting, you only put your $30 up if one of your selections wins.

[Chrome Prince]

Your real liability is not $30 if laying the field.

Of course the maximum you can lose is set at $30, but in reality every other horse in the field is a winner except for the loser.
So you're never going to actually lose $30 in one race.

[Mark]

Add up your turnover (or hold) for each race.
Then profit divided by hold x %.

If I worked mine out by the method of how much I risk then every year I'd be on infite %, which of course is incorrect.

If you're making 2.46% after calculating this way start jumping up and down and cheering.

eg
your lays

30/12
30/8
30/6
30/6
30/3
Hold =35, say 30/3 wins, profit = 2 = 5.71%

[4legs]

Thanks everyone for your response they were all appreciated.

Chrome: Yes, I like the laying multiple horses per race - as your exposure is never the $30.

Mark: Thank you for that - I will use this method as it is easy for me to get. Based on this method (and $30 BSP); my total hold on all lays this month (only 7 days) was $7,606.91 for a profit of $187.82 (after BF comm) to give an % return of 2.47%.

It so happened that Yesterday was a good day for me - so that would be reflected in that percentage. By the end of the month it may give a better indication as now a good day or a bad day is going to have a significant impact on the percentage return.

Even though each hold on an individual horse/bet is small it certainly adds up very quickly, and at this rate it looks as if the total holds will add up to around $35,000 for the month or approaching $500k for the year - and that is only Australia Horses.

The mind boggles at what this amount would be if betting serious money and also doing the UK/IRE/US as well!

[Mark]

Thanks everyone for your response they were all appreciated.


Mark: Thank you for that - I will use this method as it is easy for me to get. Based on this method (and $30 BSP); my total hold on all lays this month (only 7 days) was $7,606.91 for a profit of $187.82 (after BF comm) to give an % return of 2.47%.


Even though each hold on an individual horse/bet is small it certainly adds up very quickly, and at this rate it looks as if the total holds will add up to around $35,000 for the month or approaching $500k for the year - and that is only Australia Horses.

The mind boggles at what this amount would be if betting serious money and also doing the UK/IRE/US as well!

Your results are excellent, good luck with it.
My % is not quite as good, but this year I'm looking at a turnover of around 1.5 million, and I am nowhere near what you would call a big bookie. It is amazing how it adds up. Your next challenge will be the Premium Charge that the greedy so & so's will hit you with.

[Chrome Prince]

Betfair are simply digging their own grave.
The market is plum for a competitor to come in with something too good to refuse.
Liquidity is the only thing saving them at this point, once liquidity starts to dwindle and similar products offered elsewhere, Betfair will be history.

It's a very sad fact, that something that started so well, had so much potential and revolutionised gambling for the punter, is now facing an agonising death due to greed.

And after they paved the way with High Court challenges, faced so much adversity and became a recognised betting medium, what a waste of a good idea due to the "accountants".

[Shaun]

Just do it the way you would for win betting, What ever you payout is your outlay and what ever you win is your return.

For example

If i lay 100 runners @$100 = $10,000 this is my return.
If i paid out in liabilities $8,000 this is my payout.
Results $10,000-$8,000 = Profit $2,000
POT $8,000/$2,000 = 25%

Mark, so you base your POT on your hold and not your liabilities

[AngryPixie]

I qualify for the premium charge other than the fact that I'm already paying close to 50% in commission now! Anybody here actually paying the charge or been threatened with it?


If you're making 2.46% after calculating this way start jumping up and down and cheering.



3.06% after Betfair tax.

[Mark]

Mark, so you base your POT on your hold and not your liabilities

Yep. POT......Profit on Turnover.

[Mark]

I qualify for the premium charge other than the fact that I'm already paying close to 50% in commission now! Anybody here actually paying the charge or been threatened with it?

Pixie, email me punt mark at hotmail dot com

[The Ocho]

Betfair are simply digging their own grave.
The market is plum for a competitor to come in with something too good to refuse.
Liquidity is the only thing saving them at this point, once liquidity starts to dwindle and similar products offered elsewhere, Betfair will be history.

It's a very sad fact, that something that started so well, had so much potential and revolutionised gambling for the punter, is now facing an agonising death due to greed.

And after they paved the way with High Court challenges, faced so much adversity and became a recognised betting medium, what a waste of a good idea due to the "accountants".
The only problem for us Aussie punters is that other exchanges aren't allowed to operate on the Oz racing. I think Betdaq tried but had to shut the Oz racing down as they are not licensed here.

[Ramraider]

Your real liability is not $30 if laying the field

Yes, you're right there Chrome. You're mind was obviously clearer than mine at that time of night.