Testing Place System

[michaelg]

For the past week the following system has shown about a 10% POT on Place betting using Unitab divvies. Unfortunately I haven't bet them.

1) Default neural settings.
2) Outright top in the Dist category.
3) Max distance of 1,400 metres.

Unfortunately I haven't recorded the size of the fields.

Five selections today. We'll see how they go.

Geelong
3/9

Ipswich
1/7
6/2

Wagga
5/1
6/3

[lomaca]

For the past week the following system has shown about a 10% POT on Place betting using Unitab divvies. Unfortunately I haven't bet them.

1) Default neural settings.
2) Outright top in the Dist category.
3) Max distance of 1,400 metres.

Unfortunately I haven't recorded the size of the fields.

Five selections today. We'll see how they go.

Geelong
3/9

Ipswich
1/7
6/2

Wagga
5/1
6/3If interested I could check it for you before investing too much?
Cheers

[michaelg]

lomaca, if you would please.

There's been two selections today that have already run - a first and a fourth.

[lomaca]

lomaca, if you would please.

There's been two selections today that have already run - a first and a fourth.Here you are Michael

Races tested 6646
total return $5986.72
POT -11%
S/R 40.26%

All races all tracks all race type included.
Does look like it has potential.

The last time I ran this programme was about two years ago and now it seems to be uncommon sluggish so I have to look at it before I can test this idea in more detail.
I included the test file printout that you can put into excel and see if you can find any clues.

The attached zip is a textfile that will easily import into excel as a "fixed width" text file.

Good luck

[lomaca]

Here you are Michael

Races tested 6646
total return $5986.72
POT -11%
S/R 40.26%

All races all tracks all race type included.
Does look like it has potential.

Ran it on about 1400 Metro races and the loss is around 20% so leaving those out almost makes it profit neutral, which is not bad at all.
Although some tracks seem to do better than others.
All it needs is an other filter maybe size of field?

Have to fix this routine before I do any more testing, it used to take about 10 minutes to do 50 thousand races and now it takes over an hour to do just 5 thousand, strange?

[michaelg]

Thanks, lomaca.

It's the usual story with the neurals - they don't perform too well with metro tracks.

Unfortunately I know zero about computers so I can't offer any suggestions about the problem.

[lomaca]

Thanks, lomaca.

It's the usual story with the neurals - they don't perform too well with metro tracks.
Sorry Michael, tried different combinations of field-size they come close to breakeven but not winning, and the long outs will kill it for most punters.

Tried only the ones with at least 10 points diff between the first and second, it naturaly increased the S/R but the divies got very skinny.

The best is to try it on track by track, because, it may sound strange but different tracks behave differently, after over 12 years I still can't find a reason for this.

I will set it up and run it, will take a couple of days.
In the mean time the top rated if top rated in distance as well is not a bad proposition.

Good luck

[lomaca]

Only one today see how it goes
Launceston race 4 #1 Brave Mukky rated at $ 2.45
Good luck

[lomaca]

Only one today see how it goes
Launceston race 4 #1 Brave Mukky rated at $ 2.45
Good luckNo qualifiers for Tuesday but try this one for a place $1.00 only it will be very long but can place (win???)

GOS Race 3 Maiden 15 Fayez

As always, good luck, we need it for sure.

[michaelg]

lomaca, I've been looking at a lay method, and it seems that the higher the TAB number then the more chance it has of losing the race.

Based on this, is it possible to look at, say TAB nos. 1 to 4 in our Place method and see how it goes?

Thanks
Michael.

[The Ocho]

I would of thought that nos 1-4 would place more often than say nos 7-10.

[michaelg]

The Ocho, yes, you're right.

That's what I meant.

The Lay system I referred to had one selection today - Gosford 3/13. It started fave on Betfair and was unplaced. If the system continues to perform I'll list the rules on a new thread. There were no accidents yesterday or Sunday, and there have been some selections that were at single figures.

[lomaca]

lomaca, I've been looking at a lay method, and it seems that the higher the TAB number then the more chance it has of losing the race.

Based on this, is it possible to look at, say TAB nos. 1 to 4 in our Place method and see how it goes?

Thanks
Michael.Yes there is a 5% difference between TAB numbers 1 to 4 and those over 4, but still not winning.

However while looking at the printout I noticed that there is sometimes a huge difference between the actual starting price and the rated price.
Completely the reverse at times by as much as a factor of 3.
Like rated @$10, starting and winning @$3.00 or the other way around.
I will look at that later today.

There is one selection today, Randwick race 2 #5 REIGNING
------------------------------------------------------------
Also maybe worth some thought, (not a distance selection)
GAW Race 5 #1 Callmedan

[lomaca]

two for today
HAW Race 4 Maiden 1 Dreams And Desires $2.35
ROC Race 1 Maiden 1 Spotted Eagle $1.8

[michaelg]

lomaca, they both won.

I backed Hawksbury 4/1 to Place. On NSW Tab it paid $1.04, on Unitab it was $1.00, I got $1.11 on Betfair. Not much better but percentage-wise it was huge.

[lomaca]

Just the one today probably be too short and will do nothing.

IPS Race 1 Open #1 Chew The Fat $2.7

Here is an other to look at, maybe of some value
CAB Race 5 BM65 #3 Old Mystique $ 2.6

[Chrome Prince]

However while looking at the printout I noticed that there is sometimes a huge difference between the actual starting price and the rated price.
Completely the reverse at times by as much as a factor of 3.
Like rated @$10, starting and winning @$3.00 or the other way around.


This is an interesting point.
When considering the old chestnut of the rated price plus so much percent is overs, I have found the direct opposite to be true.
The above statement assumes that the ratings are accurate and take into account the money that "goes on" is no smarter than the ratings.
I've found this not to be the case.

A quick and dirty review of the last 102 horses that opened on track at less than $2.05 demonstrates.

Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 1.45 units.

Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 8.92 units.

Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 7.47 units.

If I expand the opening price to $3.00 or less, it becomes more interesting.

Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 22.09 units.

Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 12.21 units.

Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 9.88 units.

So based on the above information, backing the firmers at $2.00 or less opening price and all at $2.05 to $3.00 we get this...
$ 7.47
$23.54

$31.01 units profit from 398 bets, or 7.79% POT based simply on price.

This is from the last 7 Saturday meetings only.

[AngryPixie]

I played around with the UniTAB ratings quite some time ago. Used a quick and dirty method to convert them to prices, and used the resulting price as the maximum I'd accept. So if rated price was 2.5, I'd back the horse if it was under that price, but not if it was over. Backing only the favourite it was actually quite profitable on the single day I tried it out. Ages ago now but I think I was up 10 or so units on the Saturday.

Makes you wonder where the value really lays.

[AngryPixie]

I played around with the UniTAB ratings quite some time ago.

The logic behind this was that any ratings I did or had access to would not be as accurate as the market. So if the money was on, somebody must know something I don't. Where there's smoke...

I've said here before that in my opinion ratings tell us what we know, whereas the market tells us what we don't know.

[Chrome Prince]

I've said here before that in my opinion ratings tell us what we know, whereas the market tells us what we don't know.

Spot On!

[lomaca]

Here is an other to look at, maybe of some value
CAB Race 5 BM65 #3 Old Mystique $ 2.6I don't believe it, every time I nominate some horse on this forum, that is not a fav pick by the tipsters it becomes a late mail. AND fail!

Now I'm fully aware of my limitations and don't for a moment suggest that the late mail tipper is following my selections but it gets creepy!

Still I hope it wins, I have 50*150 riding on it.

Good luck

[OM SHARNTEE]

Here is an other to look at, maybe of some value
CAB Race 5 BM65 #3 Old Mystique $ 2.6Hi lomaca

Thats a very interesting "system" youve got there !

An 11 year old brother to a Melbourne Cup winner ,

going for a Hat Trick.

--Whithin 19 days--

Good luck

[The Ocho]

This is an interesting point.
When considering the old chestnut of the rated price plus so much percent is overs, I have found the direct opposite to be true.
The above statement assumes that the ratings are accurate and take into account the money that "goes on" is no smarter than the ratings.
I've found this not to be the case.

A quick and dirty review of the last 102 horses that opened on track at less than $2.05 demonstrates.

Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 1.45 units.

Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 8.92 units.

Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 7.47 units.

If I expand the opening price to $3.00 or less, it becomes more interesting.

Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 22.09 units.

Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 12.21 units.

Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 9.88 units.

So based on the above information, backing the firmers at $2.00 or less opening price and all at $2.05 to $3.00 we get this...
$ 7.47
$23.54

$31.01 units profit from 398 bets, or 7.79% POT based simply on price.

This is from the last 7 Saturday meetings only.

I've noticed this month that the fav is winning more than it's share of races and maybe why those results are a bit squew-if.

[michaelg]

The Ocho, I hope you're right about the faves winning more than their share of races.

If the fave wins then there's a good chance I might lose in both my Lay the Field methods. However both of them are currently doing extremely well. Last night in England I layed 5 races. The fave won 2 of them (40% strike rate) yet I was able to show a profit.

Today's selections for the Place method (nos. 1 to 4) are:

Bairnsdale
2/1

Dombeen
8/1

Gold Coast
2/2
3/1
4/3

Moonee Valley
1/1
8/1

Morphetville
3/1

Toowoomba
4/4
5/2

Warwick Farm
2/3

[Chrome Prince]

The last 7 weeks, odds on favourites that were well supported won infinitely more races than normal for Metro races.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day today for the Place system.

There were 11 selections for 3 winners paying $23.40 on Unitab, and 9 placegetters paying $17.40.

[Chrome Prince]

Again the hot pots that there was money for did well....

Date TRACK RACE Tab HORSE OPEN FLUC1 FLUC2 CLOSE MOVEMENTTOP FLUCSP NSWTAB UNiTAB STAB BEST TOTEBSPBFMINUSCOM
20/08/2011 Doomben 2 7 Transporter $1.75 $1.75 $1.65 $1.70 FIRM
20/08/2011 Moonee Valley 7 8 Kulgrinda $1.90 $1.95 $1.75 $1.70 FIRM $1.95 $1.70 $1.70 $1.70 $1.70 $1.70 $1.75 $1.66
20/08/2011 Toowoomba 3 4 Somnambulist $1.65 $1.65 $1.50 $1.26 FIRM $1.65 $1.26 $1.40 $1.20 $1.30 $1.40 $1.33 $1.26

[partypooper]

That's always done my head in, on one hand you have the "experts" telling you that the only way to win is to get VALUE, i.e obtain a price that is greater than the horses true chance of winning, and on the other hand being told that backing firmers is the way to go? which means that you are accepting the opposite (in most cases)

[michaelg]

Let's see how the system goes today:

Kalgoorlie
4/3

Launceston
3/1

[michaelg]

Yesterday there was one winner of $2.30 and $1.30, the second selection ran fourth.

Unfortunately I missed a third selection. It was Alice Springs R4 no.1 - it ran third paying $1.60, which I can't record because I failed to list it.

One selection today:

Echuca
3/6

[michaelg]

Correction - there are no selections today because the "selection" quoted is not numbered between TAB nos. 1 to 4.

It lost - might be a good Lay system?

[AngryPixie]

That's always done my head in, on one hand you have the "experts" telling you that the only way to win is to get VALUE, i.e obtain a price that is greater than the horses true chance of winning, and on the other hand being told that backing firmers is the way to go? which means that you are accepting the opposite (in most cases)

Poop

What I don't hear from people who do there own ratings is how accurate they are? Do the $3 shots hit 33.34% of the time? What about the even's chances? Do they win 50% of the time? You get my drift.

Would be interested to hear from anybody who has a large ratings data set.

Sorry Michael going a bit off track here.

[Chrome Prince]

I've never seen any ratings that can beat the bookies final prices.
That is however, all races, all starters.
I await eagerly the day someone, anyone, can offer something which challenges this.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Townsville
1/4
5/4
6/2

[Vortech]

I've never seen any ratings that can beat the bookies final prices.
That is however, all races, all starters.
I await eagerly the day someone, anyone, can offer something which challenges this.
Chrome you have enlighted me so much with your approach. The difficult assessment although is how to pre-select your bets in the fixed market or alike. Where do you gather your opening prices from? And do you use betfair for fluctulations?

Any stats you have on market movements I would love to here

[michaelg]

From yesterday's three selections there were two winners paying a total of $11.90 for the Win and $3.60 for the Place. The third selection ran fourth.

Two selections today:

Eagle farm
3/2
6/1

[Bhagwan]

Impressive results with some good win divs Michael.

Well done,

[michaelg]

From yesterday's two selections there was one winner paying $2.60, and both placed paying $2.70.

Today's selections:

Morphetville
2/4
7/3

Rocky
4/2

[MrFugly]

Excellent results Michaelg, has the max distance requirement of 1400 metres been dropped?

Yesterday, Eagle Farm R3-2, 1840 metres?

Thanks for another great system idea.

Cheers, MrFugly.

[michaelg]

MrFugly, I think only a handsome person would give himself such a name as yours.

I don't apply any restrictions with the distance. Checking the results since 20/8, Win and Place betting are showing a profit for distances both under and over 1,400 metres. However, in my records I do identify the distance to see if there's an advantage.

A good result so far today. One selection has been run (M'ville 2/4). It won paying $4.00 and $1.40

[jose]

Smashed 'em!

[michaelg]

Yes, Jose.

It was a good day - three wins from 3 selections for a return of $11.30 and $5.00.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Albury
4/1
6/1
8/2

Ipswich
6/1

Alice Springs
3/3

[michaelg]

A losing day yesterday. There was one winner from the five selections paying $4.50, and two placegetters paying $3.50

I began the method last Saturday so it's now been one week.

There have been 26 selections for 11 winners for a profit of $30.30, and 19 placegetters for a profit of $7.90.

Today's selections:

Armidale
3/1
6/1

Belmont
4/2
6/1
7/1
8/1

Caulfield
7/1

Darwin
2/1
4/1

Morphetville
3/1
5/4

Newcastle
8/1

Rosehill
1/1
2/2

Towwomba
2/4

[michaelg]

A losing day yesterday. From the 11 selections there were 3 winners for a loss of $1.90, and 6 placegetters for a loss of $2.00.

Today's selections:

Ballina
2/1

Hobart
4/1
5/4

Pakenham
3/2

Sandown
1/1

[michaelg]

Corrections.

The selection for Hobart R4 is no.4, Clan Mcleod.

Ballina has been abandoned.

The Pakenham selection has been scratched.

[Job123]

The tips I got with your rules are top nuerals default top dist numbers 1 2 3 or 4 only ( I assume outright top on points no equal top on points these are made after scracthings )Hobart race 4 no 4--- Hobart race 5 no 4 ---sunshine coast race 7 no 1 --pakenham race 6 number 1 sandown race 1 no 1---- so 2 winners paying 1.80 and 1.10 The point is there may be more selections to it if scracthings are known . Have you done any study in say top rated nuerals with top rated time nuerals or top cp nuerals ? I the saw the winner of the steeple at sandown race 4 no 9 pay $90 this was top rated bt the carear ratings have you or anyone else have data on the top carear tip ?

[Job123]

Just looked at the carear for yesterday and says race 4 no 9 for sandown was 2nd rated so again if anyone has data on the top 3 of the racing and sports ratings this would be a great help thanks .

[michaelg]

We have to be very careful with the R & S site because the figures can change after the race or after the end of the day's races. I always compile my selections before the running of the first race.

I believe it was someone on this forum who a few years ago did an analysis on the neurals. He said the CP algorithym had the best strike rate but was not the best category because the price of some of the winners were very skinny. Sadly none of the categories showed a profit.

Yesterday there were two winners from the three selections for a loss of $0.10 and a loss of $0.70 for the Place.

Three selections today:

Queanbeyan
6/1

Swan Hill
1/6
8/2

[michaelg]

Correction - The Swan Hill selection is obviously not 1/6 but race 6 no.1.

[Job123]

The carear ratings are in another part of the rs site there are not the nuerals and 93 dollars is value . To make a point in your system tab nunbers 1 to 4 might cut out most long price winners as nearly all are down in the weights lower numbers .

[michaelg]

I know of the career ratings, but because the neurals and D.S. market changes maybe it might be worthwhile to check if it also changes.

I have sometimes looked at the career ratings but they too can seem puzzling.

[Job123]

Todays career top pick macthed with the top nurals distance found a winner at 17.10 on nsw tote in race 5 number 14 musslebrooke--- a total of 8 bets using this system means a profit of $9.10 on 1 DOLLAR WIN BETS . IF there is anyone thats has a program to test this system or maybe the top 2 of the career ratings betting only if 10 dollars tote price is given that would be a great help to me thanks .

[Job123]

I had a re look of the horses that matched the top nuarals distance and top career there where just 3 so at ONE DOLLAR = 3 dollars and a profit of $14.10 on nsw tote A even higher profit is given at the top 2 career tips today there where 24 that run a $10 or higher on the vic tote before the jump there where 2 winners paying a combined $47.30 so a profit of $23.30 was made. that is after the $ 93 DOLLAR WINNER YESTERDAY !!!! I recall the career ratings in the past have given some long price winners any one else been betting on them ?