B. Mayfield-Smith system

[xanadu]

A punter wishing to follow a mechanical plan with no form study required could do worse than following all Brian Mayfield-Smith's starters.
He currently has a "killer" strike -rate and he still has his real stable stars ready to come back to racing, which should provide excellent betting opportunities.
An investment plan of 1w 5pl should return good profits but it is up to the individual punter to decide which method suits them.
I suppose a similar approach in Sydney racing, following Gai Waterhouse, could be followed, but to avoid the unexpected form reversals perhaps a few filters could be applied. I have been monitoring this approach for some time and one filter to follow in respect of G. Waterhouse is to back the outsider when she has two or more starters in a race.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-02-05 13:57, xanadu wrote:
I have been monitoring this approach for some time and one filter to follow in respect of G. Waterhouse is to back the outsider when she has two or more starters in a race.


Agreed.
This does not only apply to G.W. but also to many other leading stables.

[dolly007]

We can do it for both the the jockey and trainers in top 10 inevery states.
However there is a criteria is that you cannot back the selection below certain odds e.g 3.50

[becareful]

I've never heard of a jockey riding two or more runners in a single race before :grin:

[dolly007]

I often hear some say about it
cause jockeys=money monkeys

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-02-05 16:29, becareful wrote:
I've never heard of a jockey riding two or more runners in a single race before :grin:



You must have missed the "great jockey switch."

:smile:

[Percentum]

Some time ago when Brian was training in Sydney his horses could generally be relied on to run good races first up often at good prices. The same was the case for the Freedman stable. Nice and simple - big price almost guaranteed. Wish I'd remembered this long forgotten method on Saturday (Dame de Noche is a Freedman horse). Anybody got the energy to check this one. Is that the sort of thing databases can do in seconds? I'm not all that savvy with computers. Maybe include Bart's horses. Gai's horses are usually boomed a bit by the media and so, probably won't be as good value.

[xanadu]

So far so good.
Melb Race 1 and Greek Adonis duly saluted, paying:
NSW $5.10w $1.70pl
Vic $5.40w $1.80pl
Qld $5.40w $1.90pl
Roll on the rest of the stable stars.

[xanadu]

As Brian Mayfield-Smith's strategy is aimed at winning black type and Group races, it may be wise to develop a betting plan to get maximum benefit from his runners.
So, initially we back all his runners in the ratio of 1 unit win, 5 units place.
This is for all provincial, mid-week and minor races.
In set weight, Group races and higher class races we double the stakes, ie 2 win, 10 place(or 1.5win, 7.5 place).
I 'd like to hear from angel614 to see if you have any opinion to offer as to a "winning" betting strategy.

Cheers.

Xanadu,just a suggestion,but consider this method.I know it is a progression method,but it is a good one.I am basing this on an average of 2/1 winner.Eight bets in each series as follows-
1-1-2-3-4-6-9-14.
When a winner is struck close the series and start again at 1 unit.Even with worst case scenario of 7 losers,a winner at 2/1 on the last bet would return 42 units,and a profit of 2 units on the series(40 units bet).Of course 8 losers is a wipeout.
I have always held Brian Mayfield Smith in high regard.He places his horses so well,I doubt that you would go 7 bets without a winner very often,if ever!I also suggest betting win only,I think it would be far more profitable long term,but of course that is entirely up to you and what you are comfortable with.Maybe you could run 2 series concurrently,one for the win and one for the place.Hope this helps,cheers angel

[Mark]

Come on Xanadu, you're allowed a little bragging after last Saturdays great results.

:smile:

[xanadu]

G'day angel614,

Thanks for the response and advice.
However, I think I will continue to bet 1w 5pl and monitor your approach.
The reason for this is as follows:
Sat 22.2.03:-
MR2 No5 Lord Volksrad 3rd $1.40pl
MR7 No13 Galapagos Girl 1st $11.70w $3.80pl
MR7 No 9 Ella Fire 2nd $4.20pl
Q.$55.70; E. $114.70
Wed 26.2.03:-
MR3 No3 Palla Strozzi 2nd $1.30pl
MR5 No5 Diamond Jake 1st $4.70w $1.80pl
So, as you can see, since I posted this method( I won't call it a system), it has performed gang-busters! I have backed all runners but I did not invest on the quinella and exacta, so returns have been very rewarding. I believe there is no reason why similar results cannot be achieved in the future considering the quality of B. Mayfield-Smith's stable and his exceptional skill in placing his runners to perfection.
I hope our fellow forum contributors have had something on these runners.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Thanks Mark,

Let's hope that Saturday's runners perform up to expectations:
MR1 No 6 French Elle*
MR3 No 3 Gussy Godiva*
MR5 No12 Innovation Girl*
MR6 No 3 Prince Rubiton*
MR8 No 2 White Mist
* Remember, in black type, listed and group races, we invest at the ratio of 2w 10pl(or 1.5w 7.5pl) to maximise the returns on the higher class runners.
Good luck.

[xanadu]

Unfortunately it's not always beer and skittles....
On Thursday 27.2.03 we did not fair too well but I believe there were excuses and this may give an option to apply filters to this method:
MR2 No 13 Sweetness 'N Light unp
MR3 No 13 Uffizzi unp
I watched these races and Sweetness ' Light was never a chance(first starter). The other runner ran wide most of the way from the extreme outside barrier) and understandably, folded when the pressure was applied.
So, in summary, we may filter first starter 3YO fillies and any runner which starts outside barrier 10, but we will wait and see.
These two started in maiden races so that could be another filter, to desist from backing such runners until they have shown whether they have the class to progress to better class races.
I will work on this and welcome any contributions.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

After a shaky start to the day we came home well and finished the day in front:
MR1 No6 French Elle unp
MR3 No 3 Gussy Godiva(outclassed) unp
MR5 No12 Innovation Girl 2nd $1.80
MR6 No 3 Prince Rubiton 2nd $1.80
MR8 No 2 White Mist 1st $6.60$2.30
Another winning day and it proves that if you stick with the class you have a better chance of winning over a lengthy period of time.
I am still working on filters to eliminate runners which appear to have no realistic chance(such as MR3 Gussy Godiva), also some of those provincial runners which have no race experience. I think that will be the first filter: do not back any first starters(unless there are very strong reasons for doing so).

[xanadu]

Things are running along quite satisfactorily with good priced winners and regular place-getters.
A comment I made in my original post that when Gai waterhouse has numerous runners in a race then back the longest priced runner.
Look at SR4 Rosehill 1.3.03, the stable had four runners and guess what?......the longest priced runner duly won, Laguna Lake, paying $24.60w $5.70pl. There must be a system there somewhere.
I welcome all contributions.

Cheers.

[Dirk Gently]

I was wondering if others had noted B. Mayfield-Smiths incredible form, according to Saturdays Sportsman, level stakes for a win on his last 94 runners has returned a profit of 67 percent. Alas, my oldest Sportsman on hand is September, what was his figures for the last horse calander year ( a july 2002 sportsman should have this.

Xanadu......Just a thought...If you had used the progression method I suggested on Saturday(I did)
French Elle 1 unit $10 unpl.
Gussy Godiva 1 unit $10 unpl.
Innovation Girl 2 units $20 2nd
Prince Rubiton 3 units $30 2nd
White Prince 4 units $40 1st 6.60x40=$264
Outlay $110
Return $264
Profit $154
Not a bad day's work by any means!Pleas consider both methos,yours and the progression concurrently,I think you will be quite happy with the results from both!Cheers,angel

[xanadu]

Angel,

I appreciate what you are saying but inevitably, luck will go against Brian Mayfield-smith and he will have a run of losing races by small margins - look at past occurences to verify this. Therefore, I will bet with a bit of insurance and still play the place tote.
This doesn't mean that your method does not have merit as confirmed by those excellent results. Perhaps I am being too pessimistic but racing can sometimes do that to us. So, in order to survive the rough times a conservative approach is recommended and we will build profits gradually by increasing the value of our units by regular long-term profits.

Cheers.

Xanadu,mate,please don't get me wrong.I am not for one minute bagging your approach,and I wholeheartedly agree with the principle of insurance and protetcion of capital.Steady steady wins the race.I am merely suggesting that you run 2 banks,one conservative,and one adventurous!Cheers,angel.
P.S.
It is an infinite pleasure swapping ideas with you!!!

[xanadu]

Thanks angel,

That's what this forum is all about- open, constructive discussion and I welcome any input from youself and other forum contributors.
Only one runner today:
MR1 No7 Pink Fit
This horse disappointed me last start so I will wager with a bit of trepidation. It is in a maiden and I am still contemplating applying filters, one of which will be "do not bet in maiden races". Another may be "do not invest on first-starters" but we will wait and see. That is the only problem with mechanical type selection methods - they do not provide the flexibility which normal form study does. Then if you don't back a runner, it gets up at succulent odds.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well, Pink Fit was narrowly beaten but paid $1.70 a place in NSW thereby returning 41.67% POT. It also gives credence to the strategy of betting on the place tote as an insurance bet.

[xanadu]

Not a bad line-up tomorrow:
MR2 No2 Lord Volksraad
MR6 No1 Rubitano

Best of luck.

[xanadu]

Unfortunately, a losing day today.
However, I am not disappointed because Lord Volksraad finished brilliantly for third(paid $1.30). Make sure you watch the film of this race as this horse definitely has a win in store in the very near future.
Rubitano tried hard but it was a big ask!
He won this race last year - with 7 kg less!
He'll come back so stick with him!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Angel,

Today's results illustrated why it is advisable to invest on this type of plan in the ratio of 1w 5pl. Brian Mayfield-Smith is an excellent trainer and places his horses expertly. However, as he may have starters at two or three meetings a week, even he can experience a run of outs of say 7-10.
This could wipe out a win only investment plan so a more conservative option may be advisable to offset these inevitable occurences.
I was thinking though, that as your investment method has a lot of merit, maybe we could utilise it for the place.
My suggestion is to follow your increments if losers are struck but to move backwards one step every time you strike a place-getter in excess of $2.00 place. If they pay <$2.00 a place then the last bet is repeated. Also, as a safe-guard, perhaps every time a series returns a profit(no matter how small), we revert to the commencement of your betting sequence.
As we know, Brian has an excellent place strike rate so this staking plan should prove profitable. Even though, those win figures quoted by another of our fellow forum contributors is very impressive and hard to ignore.
Anyway, it is just an idea and I welcome your feedback and also any from other readers.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Another reason why it is advantage to bet on the place tote is outlined in an excellent post submitted by our regular contributor Bhagwan on 1.11.2002. In this article Bhagwan succinctly outlined the maximum expected run of outs applicable to different strike-rates. I have found this very useful when assessing the prospects of some selection/betting methods. I recommendyou have a look at this post.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Bets today are as follows:

MR1 No 2 Gussy Godiva
MR7 No 2 Diamond Jake
MR8 No 6 Reactive
MR8 No 7 Galapagos Girl

Good Luck.

[xanadu]

According to latest stats, Brian Mayfield-Smith currently has a 25.4% strike-rate for the current 2003 racing season. In 2002 his ratio was 27.8% and for 2001 he achieved 20.5%.
Therefore his strike-rate falls in the 1 winner in every 4 or 5 starters(an excellent ratio). Refer to Bhagwan's ready reckoner and we see that with a strike-rate of 20% you can anticipate an expected run of outs of 31. For a strike-rate of 25% you can expect a potential run of outs of 24-pretty sobering stats I'm sure you would agree. Therefore we must employ a relatively conservative staking plan to help us survive the inevitable horror sequence.
I hope this has been of some value.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well, what can you say!
Today's results were excellent and justifies sticking with B. Mayfield-Smith and this plan.
Statistics were:
MR1 No 2 Gussy Godiva 3rd $1.60pl
MR7 No 2 Diamond Jake unp
MR8 No 6 Reactive unp
MR8 No 7 Galapagos Girl Won $20.80w$5.00pl
POT was 124.16%, very impressive, wouldn't you agree?
Although, if you had followed the staking plan suggested by angel416 you would have won a motza! Did you get it buddy?

Cheers.

Xanadu,you little ripper!!!Thanks for coming up with this plan in the first place!! In an absolute hurry,gotta take my son to tennis,will hopefully get a chance to post later,want to talk to you,cheers,angel

[xanadu]

Thanks angel,

Today we have several runners:

MR1 No 7 Octama unp
MR2 No14 Sweetness 'N Light unp
MR2 No15 Uffizi Won$8.20w$1.90pl
MR6 No 4 Physical Graffiti*
MR8 No 2 Lord Of Lords
I hope you got on Uffizi.
*Physical Graffiti also won at Pakenham on 25.2.03 at odds of 7/4.
Let's keep the Brian Mayfield-Smith juggernaut rolling!
Good luck and good punting!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

MR6 No 4 Physical Graffiti unp
MR8 No 2 Lord Of Lords Won $1.30w$1.04pl
A pretty satisfying day all round, so we move on to future profits(hopefully).

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Only one starter today:
MR6 No 14 White Mist
should be a bit of value in a very tough race.

Good luck.

[xanadu]

Unfortunately, no luck here with White Mist being narrowly beaten into fourth place at very succulent odds of 13.00. Did you see it's run from the back of the field to just miss a place!
It's typical of how your luck can be out sometimes. I'm just sick of being beaten in freakin' photo finishes all the time lately!
To rub salt in, I was on Sir Chuckle in the next race and again narrowly beaten in a photo-finish for third place at good odds!
These cost me a fair amount so I went to see the doctor-Dr Tooheys that is!
When we are going through a bad spell like this, all you can do is study the form harder, keep looking for value and stick to your well-researched form analysis and hope that a good payday is just around the corner. The important thing is not to recklessly chase losses.

Have to take more medicine, see ya later.

[xanadu]

Only one runner for our plan today:
MR5 No 16 Pink Fit
again, should be good odds in a pretty tough race.

Good luck.

[xanadu]

Pink Fit was scratched,so no runners. We will wait for later in the week.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

We had an interesting day on Wed 19.3.03:
MR4 No 4 Lord Of Lords 2nd $1.10pl
MR4 No16 Pink Fit unp
MR6 No 9 Uffizi 2nd $5.00pl
MR6 No17 Sweetness 'N Light unp*
* I was very impressed with this run as it only weakened in the last bit, so watch out for it next start as it should win or place at good odds(NB. it is still a maiden).
Also, the results today emphasised the advantages of covering your bets by investing in the ratio of 1w 5pl. We did not get a winner yet by investing in the above ratio we returned a POT of 27.08% - a very pleasing result I think you would agree. It gives us more funds to invest on the following runners on Sat 22.3.03(day meeting):
MR 2 No 7 Reactive
MR 5 No 5 Lord Volksraad(top run last start)*
MR 6 No 3 Rubitano
MR 7 No 3 Galapagos Girl
MR 7 No10 White Mist(top run last start-backing up within 7 days)
On paper we appear to have excellent prospects of returning a healthy profit as some are class runners but we will have to wait and see.
* the panel on Racing Retro classed this horse as a "gunner" but we will see.


Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well the plan is rolloing along quite satisfactorily, with a winning day(just) last saturday week. Then we had a loser during the week(however, it was a first starter)and I am thinking about eliminating these from my bets.
Yesterday, we had Physical Graffiti which ran 3rd at Yarra Glen(paid $1.30pl) so we made a small profit.
Today we have only one starter at Sandown:
MR6 No 7 Uffizi
So good luck and good punting.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

On Saturday 29.3.03 we had three runners:
MR3 No 2 Diamond Jake unp
MR4 No 6 Gussy Godiva failed to finish
SR6 No 7 Galapagos Girl 3rd 2.90
we were very unlucky and returned a very small loss. Better prospects for a profit at Sandown today and later in the week.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Uffizi didn't run a place testerday so we will back up on Saturday.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

You must really feel for B. Mayfield-Smith with the loss of two of his stable stars in such a short time(Innovation Girl & Rubitano), but that's the way it goes I suppose.
Luckily, he has great stable strength so I am certain he will bounce back very quickly.
I haven't seen Sweetness 'N Light for a while so when it next starts make sure you are on it!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

On paper today,we seem to have excellent prospects of returning a profit so get on:
MR3 No 9 Lord Of Lords
MR6 No 3 Reactive
MR7 No13 White Mist
MR8 No12 Storming Bai

Good luck and good punting!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Unfortunately, we had an ordinary day:
MR3 Lord Of Lords 4th
MR6 Reactive 2nd $1.90pl NSW
MR7 White Mist unp*
MR8 Storming Bai 4th
I am totally sick of our qualifiers running fourth in this plan as it has cost us plenty.
*I believe White Mist ran like a horse which has had enough but we will leave it to the expert trainer to make the necessary decision about her immediate future.

Let's hope for better luck next time.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Today we have two selections:
MR2 No6 Dash On Ruby unp
MR2 No9 Is You Is 3rd $4.40pl*
so, another winning day.
Hope you got on-I couldn't post earlier (server problems).
*this was a first starter(remember, I had reservations about these). I'm glad I did not eliminate these first starters from our investments as we have had a good result.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Two runners tomorrow:
MR6 No 3 Diamond Jake
SR8 No 6 Galapagos Girl

Good Luck,

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well, no luck today,
MR6 Diamond Jake unp
SR8 Galapagos Girl 5th*
*top run, wasn't disgraced, just overhauled in the last 100m.
Better luck next time.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Only one runner today but it appears to have good prospects:
MR9 No 3 Chief Jabula
it is an NZer and has good credentials.

Good luck,
Cheers.

[Fryingpan]

Nice win there xanadu! It got my money too although from a different punting angle. Reading your post added weight to punting on it or not. Thanks. This is an interesting post. Are you still seeing 25% strike rate in the short sample run?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fryingpan on 2003-04-15 19:38 ]</font>

[xanadu]

Thanks Fryingpan,
Yesterday's result was:
MR9 No 3 Chief Jabula WON $3.00win $1.50pl
Today we again have only one runner:
MR4 No 8 Lord Of Lords
this should run well, my only concern is the state of the track. However, this is the beauty of this plan-we have an expert trainer who knows best how to place his starters and what they are capable of. Therefore, we will allow him to make all the decisions while we armchair punters follow his advice and hopefully prosper.
In relation to your question regarding Brian's strike-rate, the stats according to an excellent site provided by aapracingandsports.com.au is as follows:
strike-rate last three months 16.3%(1win per 6.1 runners)
strike-rate last 12 months 23.6% (1 win per 4.2 runners)
Interesting stats I'm sure you would agree? It would appear that we are due for a good run in the near future to bring Brian's strike-rate up to normal levels. Conversely, because he has recently lost two of his stable stars, Innovation Girl and Rubitano, can the rest of the stable maintain the average. It remains to be seen but I have faith in Brian's judgment and ability so I will stick with him and I hope our other forum readers will do likewise.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Result was:
MR4 No 8 Lord Of Lords 2nd $1.60pl(NSW)-paid $1.70 in other states. However, investing in the ratio of 1w5pl we had a good little earner. It was a good run and was well ridden but the winner was too good.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

One runner tomorrow:
MR7 No17 Steel King*
*it is an emergency but hopefully it should get a run.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Unfortunately, Steel King(MR7) was scratched, meaning no runners today. It just makes us more keen for our next qualifier.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

A big day today so let's hope for a bit of luck:
MR1 No19 Transact
MR4 No11 Storming Bai
MR5 No 8 Reactive

Good Luck
Cheers.

[xanadu]

MR1 No19 Transact late scr
MR4 No11 Storming Bai unp(just fell in a hole)
MR5 No 8 Reactive unp
What can you say? We just have to back up next time.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

We seem to have bright prospects today:
MR3 No11 Is You Is
MR4 No 6 Pride Of Archway
Good Luck,

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well no luck today:
MR3 No11 Is You Is unp
MR4 No 6 Pride Of Archway 4th,what else!
Better luck later in the week.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

We are going through one of those slumps at the moment. Hopefully we can turn it around today:
MR8 No 1 Penny Opera

Cheers.

[xanadu]

A late scratching:
MR8 No 1 Penny Opera*
there will more chances on the weekend.
*watch this horse-a change of stables into the Mayfield-Smith yard, which is very unusual as he doesn't accept "slackers."

Cheers.

[Luckyboy]

Xanadu,

Not sure if you are aware but Practical Punting Monthly (May Issue) has picked up on your 'trainer' system.

You've made the pros (sic) take notice... Well Done!


LB

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Luckyboy on 2003-04-30 08:52 ]</font>

[Chrome Prince]

There is a certain "journalist" (unprofessional) who makes his columns by pinching postings and ideas from people like yourself who have put in all the hard work.

ignoring for a minute the tactics of this person desperate to earn a buck from PPM, I commend you on your research of this system.

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-08-22 13:56 ]</font>

[xanadu]

Thanks very much for the information fellas,

Don't they say that the best form of flattery is copying or duplicating what you are doing? I'll give a thought to that email idea but for the time being, I suppose this is a public forum and we are all trying to help each other out. Today, only on runner:
MR8 No 5 Lord Of Lords
should run well so good luck.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Saturday 26.4.03, one runner:
MR3 No 4 Steel King
scratched recently when it was an emergency and unluckily didn't get a run-it is primed for a first-up effort and should run well especially with K McEvoy in the saddle.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well.......I won't say it......,
MR8 No 5 Lord Of Lords, ran fourth. I thought it was pretty average ride by the jockey....too far back!
We'll back up tomorrow with Steel King.

Cheers.

[Ian Pikawinna]

Hi Xanadu
What about Dual Spark tomorrow ??

[xanadu]

G'day Ian,

It's scratched mate, but watch for it later in the week.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Puntz,Chrome Prince,Luckyboy,
Well, the plan recovered well:
MR3 No4 Steel King WON $2.60w $1.30pl
You'd think that plagiarizer would at least give me an acknowledgment for this plan by naming it after me wouldn't you?
Come on mate!....show me the money......!!!

Cheers fellas.

[xanadu]

A pretty busy day today and we should anticipate a profit:
MR2 No 3 Celestina
MR4 No 2 Bird Dancer
MR5 No 2 Chief Jabula*
*won well last start.
Good luck.
Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well people, I hope the "real" people benefited from today's results:
MR2 No 3 Celestina WON $2.40w $1.10pl
MR4 No 2 Bird Dancer WON $1.70w $1.20pl
MR5 No 2 Chief Jabula WON $2.00w $1.10pl
Remember in a recent post I indicated that we were due for a recovery in Brian's strike-rate to bring it up to usual levels-well he has delivered. Last four bets, four winners-you can't do much better than that!
One thing to keep in mind, it's only just started as I believe there are lucrative times ahead so watch this space for updates. I hope fellow forum contributors have done well.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

One runner for us today:
MR4 No 1 Dual Spark
*scratched the other day. Ian Pikawinna, this one's for you-I told you it would run within the next week or so.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well, no luck,

The apprentice worries me. She appears too hesitant(let's face it, 16 years old) and always goes for the inside run when in my opinion she should go wide to avoid the traffic. Then again, the shortest trip to the winning post is the inside, but every race?
I think the mentor should just point out that the "openings" on the inside rarely happen in high-pressure finishes.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

G'day everyone, we have an interesting day today:
MR4 No12 Is You Is WON $5.80w$1.80pl
MR7 No 1 Penny Opera
MR9 No 4 Pride Of Archway
we are already in front with an excellent winner as above, let's hope we can keep it going.

Cheers.

[xanadu]

Well, we are just powering along!
MR4 No12 Is You Is WON $5.80w $1.80pl
MR7 No 1 Penny Opera *scr
MR9 No 4 Pride Of Archway WON $4.40w $1.80pl
*watch for this horse in the upcoming week.
What about our strike-rate over the last 10 bets!

Cheers.