following the ratings

[oldtimers]

i have been trialling the unitab ratings where the favourite is well down in the ratings,then backing the 100% plus the next closest. either dutch or level stakes. check brisbane races sat.20/8/11 in particular r2.... does anyone have records for this over a longer period? cheers

[Try Try Again]

Hi Oldtimers,

What do you consider "well down in the ratings"?

The favourite in race 2 at Doomben was rated 99 where the winner was rated 95 and the second placed horse rated 100. These were the 3rd and top rated horses. I can't see how you would back the winner based on your "rules".

[place2win]

i have been trialling the unitab ratings where the favourite is well down in the ratings,then backing the 100% plus the next closest. either dutch or level stakes. check brisbane races sat.20/8/11 in particular r2.... does anyone have records for this over a longer period? cheers
I Believe, Oldtimers meant the Fav was well down in the field (ie lower half) and was not the 100rater.

[The Ocho]

I thought I'd continue this thread rather than start a new one.

Does anyone know/have records of the Unitab 100 rater? Basically the strike rate but more importantly the profit/loss for an extended period of time whether it be backing or laying. Thanks in advance.

[Bhagwan]

The 100ptrs
If also one of RadioTAB selections

1st 33%SR -15% LOT

2nd 25%SR -13% LOT

3rd 20%SR -17% LOT

Average if in top 3 selections 25%SR -15% LOT

UniTAB prices.

So if using Betfair prices, for an approx 15% greater, which is accounting for commission.
One should approx break even if using Betfair.

That's not a bad starting point, just eliminate 1 selection from 8 races & your in profit by approx +12.5% POT.
Using Betfair prices.
Or
Successfully lay 1 in 8 races & your miles in front.

Apparently I was reading somewhere that Backing all the 100ptr $20+ shots, shows a profit.

[Bhagwan]

That sample is based on 50,000 races.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Oldtimers,

When you say Dutch the selection, I am assuming you are targeting 2+ runners.

Is that right?

If so which 2 do you take.

[The Ocho]

Thanks very much Bhagwan. Those strike rates are virtually like the 1st, 2nd and 3rd favs straight out selections or have I got those wrong?

You (or someone else) don't happen to have just the 100 rater stats and profit/loss by themselves (without the radiotab picks) by any chance?

[ixlat0]

UNITab Top 100

random sample (oct 2010 - sept 2011) each month represented (min 10 races/mth) -- did not include race if 100 scratched (ie didn't take the next best) or more than 1 in race -- used UNITab prices

N = 151
SR 22.5% (expect long term ~SR23.5%)
AR $3.6 (expect long term ~AR$3.82)
POT -19% (expect long term POT~ -10.2%)

variance -- for every 150 races -- 95% of the time i would expect a SR between 17% - 30%

with an AR of ~$3.8 you would need SR26.5% to break even

have the best day!

[beton]

UNITab Top 100

random sample (oct 2010 - sept 2011) each month represented (min 10 races/mth) -- did not include race if 100 scratched (ie didn't take the next best) or more than 1 in race -- used UNITab prices

N = 151
SR 22.5% (expect long term ~SR23.5%)
AR $3.6 (expect long term ~AR$3.82)
POT -19% (expect long term POT~ -10.2%)

variance -- for every 150 races -- 95% of the time i would expect a SR between 17% - 30%

with an AR of ~$3.8 you would need SR26.5% to break even


have the best day!


At $3.60 the SR for the top fav is 26.17% on a 43000 sample. Beton

[The Ocho]

Thanks very much ixlat0 and beton.

I've noticed over the last 4 days that the 100 rater has gone terribly and was wondering if that is normal or not. Obviously, with those stats, it isn't normal then. DAM!!! I thought I had found something.

Over the last 4 days and taking Unitab prices without anything higher than $15 there would have been 89 bets losing -$31.8. Now while the Betfair prices will most probably be higher, if those selections were laid then I think there still would've been quite a large positive POT (35.7% POT if prices were reversed - which I know wouldn't quite work out with Betfair lay prices).

[Stix]

The 100ptrs
If also one of RadioTAB selections

1st 33%SR -15% LOT

2nd 25%SR -13% LOT

3rd 20%SR -17% LOT

Average if in top 3 selections 25%SR -15% LOT

UniTAB prices.

So if using Betfair prices, for an approx 15% greater, which is accounting for commission.
One should approx break even if using Betfair.

That's not a bad starting point, just eliminate 1 selection from 8 races & your in profit by approx +12.5% POT.
Using Betfair prices.
Or
Successfully lay 1 in 8 races & your miles in front.

Apparently I was reading somewhere that Backing all the 100ptr $20+ shots, shows a profit.Hi Bhags

If I can be so bold as to ask....what is the S/R and av div of 100ptrs when not a Top 3 radio selection and is it the same for Metro and Country(&Provincial)?

Thanks, can you pls email me at stix _ hotcopper at aanet dot com dot au, might have another query or two, if you'd be so kind :rolleyes:

Thanks In Advance
Stix

[Stix]

Thanks very much ixlat0 and beton.

I've noticed over the last 4 days that the 100 rater has gone terribly and was wondering if that is normal or not. Obviously, with those stats, it isn't normal then. DAM!!! I thought I had found something.

Over the last 4 days and taking Unitab prices without anything higher than $15 there would have been 89 bets losing -$31.8. Now while the Betfair prices will most probably be higher, if those selections were laid then I think there still would've been quite a large positive POT (35.7% POT if prices were reversed - which I know wouldn't quite work out with Betfair lay prices).
My long term average for neural and 100ptr rater method is 29%
Since 16 September it has been 24.5%

Why...damn wish I knew....(swings and round abouts??)...its been very consistent over the past 15mths I've kept records

[The Ocho]

Okay thanks for that Stix.

[Stix]

Okay thanks for that Stix.Dividends down from long term average of $3.1 to $2.8 as well....so lower S/R & lower div's...from my records during last 6 weeks...

[The Ocho]

Counting the last 6 out of 7 days (from last Saturday - I haven't done Sunday yet) the stats I came up with are 132 races with 20 winners. That's a 15.15% SR. These were 100 ratings under $15. I'm not sure if the stats are exactly right but, still, that's pretty bad going or good for laying until they turn around again (although who knows when that will be :rolleyes: ).

[AngryPixie]

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=15915

[The Ocho]

Thanks AngryPixie. Those stats are just what I was looking for. :)

It also goes to show that the current run of 100 raters is obviously well below par.

On a side note, when wesmip1 was around I exchanged a few emails with him and the like but haven't heard from him for months (maybe a year) until I got a spam email with malware the other day from his email address.

I wonder whatever happened to wesmip1?

[UselessBettor]

I've got some stats for 100 raters from my website.

If you were to Back on betfair :

There were 21320 horse form lines in the database at this point in time.
There were 2153 selections for the System
There were 487 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.62%
There were $1906.81 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-246.19 or a percentage profit/loss of -11.43%

If you were to lay on betfair :

There were 21320 horse form lines in the database at this point in time.
There were 2153 selections for the System
There were 1666 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 77.38%
You had to pay out $2036.86 but brought in $2045.35 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $8.49 or a percentage profit/loss of 0.39%

This covered all price ranges.




Same query but Top neural rater and top Unitab Rating (100) :

If you were to Back on betfair :

There were 21320 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. There were 645 selections for the System
There were 189 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 29.3%
There were $545.24 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-99.76 or a percentage profit/loss of -15.47%

If you were to Lay on betfair :

There were 21320 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. There were 645 selections for the System
There were 456 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 70.7%
You had to pay out $575.65 but brought in $612.75 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $37.1 or a percentage profit/loss of 5.75%


It should be noted that Backing a selection uses the lower of the available prices. Laying a selection uses the Higher of the available prices.

[The Ocho]

Thanks very much UselessBettor. Very nice stats. :)

[petstep]

I think you have to consider the top 3 in Unitab ratings. I looked at just over 200 saturday races back in July and found that 58% of the winners were in the top 3 ranked. Yesterday caufield cup winner was 2nd rated at 95. Also, far from being an outsider. (It was 3rd in the betting.)

[Stix]

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=15915
Thanks angrypixie, much appreciated.