How much should I invest?

[moeee]

Here's a Race I handicapped.
The 1st lot of Odds are my assessment , and the 2nd set are what is available.

1 DEMOUCHI $110 $11
2 ROCKADORE $18 $21
3 SISCO SPICE $4.60 $7.50
4 WOT PRICE PINK $2.50 $2.00
10 LAST ONE IN $166 $26
6 PIPER PALMER $25 $5.50
7 MAJOR MONOGRAM $12 $9
8 MAGIC PENSKI $5.20 $5.50

3 animals are Overlays and are the only animals suitable to wager.
They are 2,3 and 8

Does anyone know a Formula that would work out how much I should invest on these 3 animals.

I don't want a Dutch Book - I know how to do that
What I want is something that will take advantage of the Bigger Overlays.

[lomaca]

Here's a Race I handicapped.
The 1st lot of Odds are my assessment , and the 2nd set are what is available.

1 DEMOUCHI $110 $11
2 ROCKADORE $18 $21
3 SISCO SPICE $4.60 $7.50
4 WOT PRICE PINK $2.50 $2.00
10 LAST ONE IN $166 $26
6 PIPER PALMER $25 $5.50
7 MAJOR MONOGRAM $12 $9
8 MAGIC PENSKI $5.20 $5.50

3 animals are Overlays and are the only animals suitable to wager.
They are 2,3 and 8

Does anyone know a Formula that would work out how much I should invest on these 3 animals.

I don't want a Dutch Book - I know how to do that
What I want is something that will take advantage of the Bigger Overlays.Simple, $20 on #3 that's the one to beat! #2 is a definite danger but I never bet on more than one horse or dog. (well hardly anyway)

[letsbet]

divide 100 by YOUR ASSESSED ODDS, not actual odds

[moeee]

divide 100 by YOUR ASSESSED ODDS, not actual odds

That's fine.
But it doesn't allow for the size of the overlay.

Try this!
We can all calculate the odds of events occurring in roulette.
And what do we find? - the casino pays out slightly less than those Odds.
So if we bet Underlays , we will lose in the long run.

So we must NEVER bet Underlays.
And it follows that the closer the animal is to being an underlay , the less we should have on it.
And the bigger the Overlay , the bigger the wager.

So in the example , the #8 is only just an Overlay , so it would noy be worth as much an investment as the #2 , which is a HUGE Overlay , yet both animals are rated at a very similar Price.

[moeee]

Simple, $20 on #3 that's the one to beat! #2 is a definite danger but I never bet on more than one horse or dog. (well hardly anyway)

Stiff Lomaca , but you can only win in the long run with handicapping like that.
Is good to see you have improved over the months to where your selections even have my selections a run for their money , and I been playing dogs for over 4 years or so :(

[lomaca]

Simple, $20 on #3 that's the one to beat! #2 is a definite danger but I never bet on more than one horse or dog. (well hardly anyway)Didn't quite make it so try the next one it should salute at a good price
race 8 #3 Croxton lass

#2 and #1 might be a danger but as I say, you have to make a decision, no point of betting them all!

[moeee]

I have the 4 inside Boxes running for a very small percentage in the Quaddies on Sandown.

Lomaca.
Thats why I do Markets.
Supposing you narrow the Field down , like you say in Race 8 , to 3 runners.
If you think the top selection is only slightly better chance of winning than the next 2 , and the Market available shows your top selection quite short , and your other 2 at good Odds, it would be wasteful to back Only the top selection.
But you not a fool and you knew that.
Every individual Race has its own peculiarities and they must be accounted for.

[The Elk]

One method would be to calculate the outlay as per dutch betting, then increase the bet size as a percentage of the overlay e.g.

Step1 (calculate Bets to $100)

Hse 2: $5.56 @ $18
Hse 3: $21.74 @ $4.60
Hse 8: $19.23 @ $5.20
profit $53.47 if one wins

Step2
Hse 2: 5.56 * 21 / 18 = $6.48 @ $18
Hse 3: 21.74 * 7.5 / 4.6 = $35.44 @ $4.60
Hse 8: 19.23 * 5.5 / 5.2 = $20.34 @ $5.20

2 wins: profit $54.40
3 Wins: profit $$100.78
8 wins: profit $43.50
Loss if none salute = $62.27

I'm sure someone can improve on that for ya

cheers

edit:
Okay so I may have used your assessed odds instead of what is available (slight error on my part) - juust follow the principle of the example

[lomaca]

Didn't quite make it so try the next one it should salute at a good price
race 8 #3 Croxton lass

#2 and #1 might be a danger but as I say, you have to make a decision, no point of betting them all!Better give it away for the day I think, need more time to do it justice and the missus is coming home soon.

Good luck

[moeee]

I messed up in Post #4

#3 was the animal that is a Huge Overlay , not the #2 as I posted.

[moeee]

Better give it away for the day I think, need more time to do it justice

I have found half hearted study usually returns what it deserves.

[jose]

Lay the 1, 10 & 6.
At least that is what I'd do.

[moeee]

Step2
Hse 2: 5.56 * 21 / 18 = $6.48 @ $18
Hse 3: 21.74 * 7.5 / 4.6 = $35.44 @ $4.60
Hse 8: 19.23 * 5.5 / 5.2 = $20.34 @ $5.20

2 wins: profit $54.40
3 Wins: profit $$100.78
8 wins: profit $43.50
Loss if none salute = $62.27


edit:
Okay so I may have used your assessed odds instead of what is available (slight error on my part) - juust follow the principle of the example


Well the Edit explains why there wasn't quite as much bias in favour of the return for the HUGE Overlay #3.
I'll go have a little play with this , but I'ma likin' it alot!

Cheers Elk.
I'll remember you when I hit my first million , and if I don't , don't be ashamed to remind me.

[woof43]

Box Total Natural Tote Odds
1 $14.14
2 $24.99
3 $8.92
4 $2.38
5 $30.93
6 $6.54
7 $10.71
8 $6.54
Moee, you need to convert the tote odds to 100% or Natural odds. The above set of figures is the Natural odds, based on what you posted. When you convert to Natural odds it makes you see how much $'s is actually on each runner. You then would need to know how much is in the Win Pool, as this will impact on how much you can invest, whilst still maintaining a + return, especially in greyhound racing.
Box Natural Tote % Mine%
1 FALSE FALSE
2 0.04 0.06
3 0.11 0.22
4 FALSE FALSE
5 FALSE FALSE
6 FALSE FALSE
7 FALSE FALSE
8 0.15 0.19
0.30 0.47
Convert each set of odds to a %. as above. Based on your figures I would get an alert if "Mine %'s" were less then 65% (reassess your handicapping)
Box Edge
1 FALSE
2 0.222222222
3 0.847826087
4 FALSE
5 FALSE
6 FALSE
7 FALSE
8 0.25
Then work out your edge, in reality you should be using 3 sets of figures here the 3rd set of figures is your Win efficiency figure based on past results, but for ease of calculating use "mine% X (tote payoff))-(1-Mine%)) will give the edge as above
Box Optimum %
1 FALSE
2 0.01
3 0.13
4 FALSE
5 FALSE
6 FALSE
7 FALSE
8 0.06
Now you need to calculate the opt% to invest which is "edge % /(tote payoff-1))Then just average the above figures to give .0657. So if your betting series Bank is $1,000 your going to invest .0657 of that amount $65.70. Now you'd just a portion this amount to your runners.
Box Bet size * Opt %
1 FALSE
2 9.00
3 25.00
4 FALSE
5 FALSE
6 FALSE
7 FALSE
8 33.00
With rounding up, you'd end up with the following investments.

[moeee]

I been playing around with what The Elk posted and I came up with this.

(Available Odds/Rated Odds)-1
Multiply that by 100 * Rated Odds

The 100 figure can be replaced with any suitable number that allows the Bank to withstand a losing run , and to keep the Punter within his comfort zone.

In the example the wagers would have been like this.

2 ROCKADORE 80 cents
3 SISCO SPICE $13
8 MAGIC PENSKI $1

All Other runners have negative results in the Formula so don't qualify.
It would have been a loss of $15

But the available Odds posted were from the Form Guide , and the actual Market Odds available were such that the actual wagers would have been $6.50 on the Winner #4 @ $2.90 and a couple of 50 cent wager losses.

[moeee]

1 FALSE
2 9.00
3 25.00
4 FALSE
5 FALSE
6 FALSE
7 FALSE
8 33.00
With rounding up, you'd end up with the following investments.

Something is wrong with these figures Woof43.
I assessed #3 as having a better Chance at winning the Race than #8
And the #3 is available at Larger Odds than #8

It makes sense that the Wager on #3 MUST be LARGER than on #8

[woof43]

Something is wrong with these figures Woof43.
I assessed #3 as having a better Chance at winning the Race than #8
And the #3 is available at Larger Odds than #8

It makes sense that the Wager on #3 MUST be LARGER than on #8

As I had previously said , not knowing your win efficiency from past results, fall back is Joe Public, who overall is a better handicapper than you.

[moeee]

If Joe Public is a better Punter than me , then I should be broke by now.
As I'm not I figure me and him are about par.
But I'll catch him , don't you worry about that.

[ixlat0]

moeee Does anyone know a Formula that would work out how much I should invest on these
3 animals.
i do -- if you give me an email address i'll send you a spreadsheet

based on your original figures (and setting total outlay at $10) the bets would be...
#2 $0.50
#3 $8.00
#8 $1.00

have the best day!

[moeee]

Thanks for the offer Ixlato , but I have it sorted as you will notice in my post about 5 posts above this one.

Do you use your Formula in your wagering Ixlato , or is it just something that turned up in your Punting travels?

[ixlat0]

moeee -- i wrote the spreadsheet just to answer your initial query -- the formula is very similiar to your approach but the amount/bet is based on a predetermined outlay (like dutching)

would i use it? -- NO
why not? -- i would not be confident that my rating-price could produce overlays in a ~120% market nor would i be confident in the magnitude of any overlay -- the penalty for getting it wrong (big overlay) is severe and would quickly lead to the poor house
what would i suggest? -- if i was going down this track i would use my ratings-prices to "identify" any potential overlay bets then just dutch them

good luck :)

[moeee]

Ixlato - Again , thanks for concerning yourself with going out of your way to help me about the spreadsheet.
Hopefully you at least enjoyed the experience or at least sharpened up your skills so as it wasn't time wasted.

I figure it this way Ixlato.
If you can't get it more right than Joe Public most of the time , then perhaps Rating Runners isn't the way to go for that Punter.

I'll be betting today using this method and I'll see how it goes.
The Problem is that I am involved with Greyhound Markets and the nature of the small Pools is that it is extremely volatile , especially at the hectic , 1 minute to go mark.

I'll try anyway using estimated Markets based on Supertab and Betfair Markets.

[ixlat0]

Moeee – the Q you asked has broader application and i adapted the spreadsheet accordingly – so the effort wasn’t wasted

How much should i invest? – this could be asked by those who run multiple systems – how much should i invest in each system? – (given a finite bank)

each system has its own edge and therefore to maximise profit and minimise loss it would be wise to allocate/apportion the bank using similar methodology

those systems with the greater potential for bank growth should have a greater proportion of the bank and hence bigger bets relative to the other systems

thx for your Q – it has stimulated thought and discussion

take care!