First-up from a spell

[michaelg]

I've been checking horses that are resuming from a spell. The rules I've tested for a system are:

1) Resuming from a spell. I've used the Telegraph to identify these.
2) Must be in the top three in Don Scott's market.

I've only looked at yesterday and Saturday's racing.

The results with NSW TAB divvies for both days are:

Saturday
6 selections.
2 winners paying $5.90
5 placegetters paying $8.50

Sunday
5 selections
2 winners paying $6.30
5 placegetters paying $10.60


There was a total of 11 selections for 4 winners for a return of $12.20, and 10 placegetters for a return of $19.10.

It's too early to tell if the method has any merit, but it looks promising especially with the Place strike rate.

If there's any selections today I'll list them later.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

W'bool
2/3
6/14

Wagga
1/9 & 11
5/8

Fingers crossed...

[darkydog2002]

Thanks for that Michaelg.i
I will keep a eye on them on good tracks as I feel they would perform better on those conditions 1st up.
Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Michaelg,
This might interest you.
1000- 1200 (Bsed on Barry Blakemores research)
1st up

Top 3 lowest asessed price on Don Scotts market

Warnambool

Race 3 H 3

Wagga

Race 4 H 3

Cheers
darky

[Travolta]

yeah I have been looking at the R&S Don Scott markets for a while and have always been interested/confused in how to treat resumers. The default Don Scott market penalises them all 6Kg for being first up - which I struggle to get my head around as we all know plenty of nags run well first up.

I like the sound of this system because if a horse is still in the Don Scott market top 3 after a 6kg penalty it must have a "higher" base run rating which suggests that if it can run reasonably well fresh and close to its base rating it must be hard to beat.

Will watch with interest - thanks for sharing.

[michaelg]

Not a good day yesterday.

There were five selections for no winners, two placegetters for a return of $4.20.

Today's selections:

Mornington
1/11
3/13

Goulburn
1/2
8/9

Let's hope today is a better day.

[Bhagwan]

Strong profit again for the place.

Which is usually, not easy to do.

[CosMos]

I have found the following helpful in NZ... four year olds fresh up to 1400m, 25%+ win or place freshup record.

[michaelg]

Thanks, CosMos, but I've never looked at N.Z racing because of the very small pools/liquidity here and also on Betfair.


Today's selections are:

Canterbury
1/1
3/2

Eagle Farm
2/1

[CosMos]

oh well...just thought it might be a worth looking at in Oz.