Days Since Last Start.

[michaelg]

I've been looking at days since last start in conjunction with Don Scott's prices. Unfortunately I've only been able to check the last three day's racing.

The two rules are:

1) Under $3.00 in Don Scott's market.
2) Last start less then 14 days.

Over the three days there have been 12 selections for 5 winners for a TAB return of $27.00, and 9 placegetters for a return of $14.10. At this very early stage it looks promising, and maybe also with some logic providing his prices are not too inaccurate.

Today's selections:

Ballarat
1/3
6/3

Ballina
5/3

Rocky
2/1


Let's see how they go...

[michaelg]

Not a bad result for the first day of the system.

From the four selections there was one winner of $7.00 and the other three selections finished second paying a total of $6.90.

[Bhagwan]

Well done Michael.

Thats a good result.

It also shows that the other selection were close to the mark which is encouraging.

[The Ocho]

Well done Michaelg. It looks good already. Maybe you can have them for the win but also have an all-up/parlay bet for the place. You only lose the 1 unit if the horse losers but keep going all up for the place for 3 or 4 races in a row and you never know.

[michaelg]

Yes, so far so good. If it continues I will consider all-ups/parlays.

Today's selections are:

Geelong
2/9
6/6

Ipswich
3/8

Dubbo
7/2

Taree
4/10

[The Ocho]

No worries michaelg. I'm in Victoria and only have a TAB account where I can't go all up or parlay unless the picks are at the same venue. Strange. Unless I'm doing something wrong?

[michaelg]

I'm not certain but I think here in NSW we also can't have all-ups with multiple venues.

Not a bad day today. From the 5 selections there were two winners paying a total of $7.60, and four placegetters (the losing selection ran third in a NTD race) paying a total of $7.70.

[The Ocho]

Well done again michaelg. You could definitely be onto something. I hope you don't mind but I placed 50c the win on each selection just for the heck of it. :)

I can't find out but I think BF may have paid 3rd dividend for Geelong race 6 no 6 as there were initially 9 horses in the race but I can't find out if they would have done that.

[OM SHARNTEE]

I can't find out but I think BF may have paid 3rd dividend for Geelong race 6 no 6 as there were initially 9 horses in the race but I can't find out if they would have done that.http://racingform.betfair.com.au/market.php?mi=100379923

Scroll downto the % -- & see 208%
So only 2 div

I think they have changed now ie: doing the same as the totes.

Nice one yetagain Michael !!!


<table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="825"><tbody><tr><td height="21" width="165">Betfair

</td><td class="tableheadertext" height="21" width="165">
</td><td class="tableheadertext" height="21" width="165">
</td><td class="tableheadertext" height="21" width="165">
</td></tr></tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="825"><tbody><tr><td class="tableheaderblacktext" height="21" width="165"> Win Market </td><td height="21" width="165"> $158,484.40 (101.3%)

</td><td height="21" width="165">
</td><td height="21" width="165">
</td><td height="21" width="165">
</td></tr></tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="825"><tbody><tr><td class="tableheaderblacktext" width="165"> Place Market </td><td height="21" width="165"> $6,057.31 (208.5%0

</td></tr></tbody></table>

[Merriguy]

I agree with Sharntee they only paid on two places.

Ocho, although you may not be able to obtain all ups on the tote, you can, of course, obtain the same on Betfair manually.

[The Ocho]

Ok thanks OM Sharntee. I looked there but I didn't see that 200%. I don't know why they just don't list the actual results.

[The Ocho]

I agree with Sharntee they only paid on two places.

Ocho, although you may not be able to obtain all ups on the tote, you can, of course, obtain the same on Betfair manually.
Yes thanks Merriguy. My bot can even do that but I'm using it to test it on something else.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Belmont
4/7

Kembla
1/2
2/4
6/9

Moonee Valley
1/6

Morphetville
3/7
5/2
6/8

Rosehill
8/10

Toowoomba
4/8


Here's hoping...

[michaelg]

Yesterday's 10 selections produced four winners for a return of $11.40 giving a profit of $1.40 which is a POT of 14%. However betting S.P. on Betfair the return including their 5% commission was $13.46 for a profit of $3.46 which is a POT of 34%.

Place betting lost $1.60.

Today's selections:

Gawler
2/3
8/10

Hobart
8/2

Kalgoorlie
6/7

Moruya
3/2
5/8
6/1

Scone
7/5
8/6

Sun Coast
3/2

Warracknabeal
5/5
6/6

[The Ocho]

As far as I can tell these would be the selections for today:

Warrnambool (VIC) R1 No5 GOTTA TAKE CARE
Warrnambool (VIC) R2 No6 WELLS
Warrnambool (VIC) R3 No8 OMBRA SIERRA

[michaelg]

Hi, The Ocho.

I agree with your selections for today.

Yesterday was a bad day. 12 selections for 2 winners paying a total of $7.40 ($8.54 with Betfair's S.P.) and 4 placegetters for a return of $7.10.

Hopefully today will recoup yesterday's losses.

[The Ocho]

Well done michaelg. Another very impressive result with 2 firsts and a second :)

[michaelg]

It's still in front, in fact it's never been in the red (until tomorrow?)

Since listing the selections from last Thursday there have been 33 bets for 10 winners giving a profit of $6.50 (would be even better with S.P.) but a loss of $0.10 with Place betting.

So far so good.

[darkydog2002]

Good one Michaelg,
As usual logic ,simplicity and good ratings.
Will add this to my Spot Play methods.
Cheers
darky

[Bhagwan]

Would Warrnambool R6/7 have been a selection?

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, you're right. It ran third paying $1.60, ($1.90 on Unitab).

However, if The Ocho and I both missed it I would not be surprised if its price was $3.00-plus before the race and only changed afterwards to $2.10.

[Bhagwan]

You could be right there .

They do tend to have a habit of changing stuff after the event mainly due ,
I believe, to late scratchings.

[michaelg]

One selection today:

Townsville
1/3

[darkydog2002]

Are you noting the TC that they are rated for ?

[michaelg]

Darky, I don't look at the track conditions. I'm hoping D.S. is more or less accurate even though his market is framed a few days prior without knowing the eventual t. condition.

Hope you didn't back yesterday's selection because it was unplaced.

Today's selections:

Murray bridge
5/2
6/2

[The Ocho]

Darky, I don't look at the track conditions. I'm hoping D.S. is more or less accurate even though his market is framed a few days prior without knowing the eventual t. condition.

Hope you didn't back yesterday's selection because it was unplaced.

Today's selections:

Murray bridge
5/2
6/2
Hi michaelg

As far as I can make out the picks today are:
Murray Bridge
5/2 only

Newcastle
6/2
7/3
8/6

Although I did do them earlier and Newcastle race 7 was not a pick then but is now.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Ocho. You're selections are correct.

I was mistaking N'cle with/and M. Bridge. On my records I knew I had made a mistake but thought I had corrected it. You will notice on no.25 on this thread that I edited it - unfortunately it was not corrected. Last time this happened it proved to be a profitable day - hopefully this will also happen again today.

[darkydog2002]

Gees Michaelg,
How did I miss that race 6 H 2 Darci Be Good (A moral to get ya on the winning path.)

[michaelg]

Yes, it was a good winner, can't lose today on Win betting. Sorry you missed it. From tomorrow I'll show the names of the selections.

[michaelg]

Only one winner from yesterday's four selections, paying $4.40, and two placegetters paying $2.80.

Today's selections:

Newcastle
2/13 - Price Of China
5/3 - Midnight At Ascot
6/2 - Sweetest Melody

Northam
1/3 - Spirit Of Sandra

[The Ocho]

Only one winner from yesterday's four selections, paying $4.40, and two placegetters paying $2.80.

Today's selections:

Newcastle
2/13 - Price Of China
5/3 - Midnight At Ascot
6/2 - Sweetest Melody

Northam
1/3 - Spirit Of Sandra

Northam should be 1/13 Spirit of Sandra :)

[michaelg]

Thanks, Ocho.

I think I need glasses or should check more carefully. Will do so from tomorrow.

Let's hope the selections perform as hoped.

[The Ocho]

Made a little again today michaelg. It's keeping it's head above water (I think).

How are the outgoings and ingoings going? :D

[michaelg]

The method's now been going for 8 days.

There's been 12 winners from 42 selections for a NSW TAB POT of 15.9% (not bad) but a LOT of 3.4% on Place betting.

It's shown a profit in 6 of the 8 days.

Hopefully its not just going through an unusually good but a normal (or particularly bad) period.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Geelong
2/7 - Miss Brilliance
6/6 - Miss Noverre

Ipswich
2/3 - Raffles Miss
5/4 - Gran Torino
7/5 - Tizzy Lizzie

Taree
4/2 - Analie's Daughter

Interestingly, five of the six selections have a "female" theme. I wonder if this means anything?

[4legs]

It appears the time you look at the R&S site has a fair bit to do with the selections.
This morning out of interest - probably 8:30ish I had a look and neither Taree 4/2 or Geelong 2/7 was a selection (the others were) - but I just looked now and they are!

[The Ocho]

That is probably due to scratchings as I have seen the same thing happen.

[michaelg]

4legs,

the two races you mention had scratchings in them. As they would not have been shown at 8.30a.m. they would have affected Don Scott's market.

I will have keep this mind because it's not unusual for the R & S website to be tardy in loading scratchings. I've seen some meetings that at 1.p.m the scratchings still haven't been recorded. Yet they've been shown on the TAB for a few hours.

[4legs]

Thanks for that - it now makes sense.

So in reality you would have to make sure all scratchings are in before you used the DS ratings.

It will be interesting to see what time the scratchings go up on a Saturday as there are about 12 meetings tomorrow.

[TWOBETS]

4legs, you can always apply the scratchings yourself on the R&S site. Just click the ticks and press 'submit'. michaelg is right about their tardiness. Some days they don't get applied at all!

[4legs]

Thanks twobets - that changes things. I must spend more time on that site.

[michaelg]

Not a good day yesterday. From the 6 selections there was 1 winner of $3.20, and 4 pacegetters for a return of $5.80.

Today's selections:

Caulfield
4/7 - Zubbaya

Echuca
3/8 - Odd Socks
7/3 - Gold Energy

Gold Coast
1/6 - Maisonblanc
7/1 - Big Chance

Grafton
2/5 - Zedrowe
4/5 - Wind Of Dubai
6/6 - Arakoon

Kalgoorlie
4/2 - Amelia Storm

Kembla
3/15 - Haayil The Prince

Morphetville
3/5 - Marsh Harbour

Tamworth
4/7 - Pickhandle Mary

[4legs]

The bad day was probably because I looked at it !!

Late Morning 12ish? I had a look (without looking at yours) and got these 4 extra selections: (Not sure if this site like me!)

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="256"><col style="width:48pt" span="4" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height:15.0pt;width:48pt" height="20" width="64">MORPHETTVILLE</td> <td class="xl65" style="width:48pt" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl65" style="width:48pt" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl64" style="width:48pt" width="64">Iguazu</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">KEMBLA GRANGE</td> <td class="xl65">5</td> <td class="xl65">7</td> <td class="xl64">Cheerful Dane</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">KALGOORLIE</td> <td class="xl67">3</td> <td class="xl67">1</td> <td class="xl66">Sonny Biscay</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">KALGOORLIE</td> <td class="xl67">7</td> <td class="xl67">3</td> <td class="xl66">Kincaple</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

[michaelg]

Thanks, 4legs. The scratchings were not shown for these races when I identified the selections because I was rushed for time and did not know if I could be able to do them later, so I settled for what was available at the time.

Your four selections are genuine ones, and they are to be included in the method.

So there are a total of 16 selections today.

Let'd hope...

[michaelg]

Another losing day yesterday. From the 16 selections there were 3 winners for a return of $11.10, and 7 placegetters for a return of $14.90.

Today's selections:

Dubbo
1/11 - Lost In Space
5/1 - Dodge Tide
8/2 - Jellybean jack

Halidon
1/5 - Probihiton Lad

Ballarat
1/7 - Romantic Miss

Belmont
3/3 & 4 - Wild Charger & Our Larrikin
5/8 - Megem's Boy
6/8 Lunar Image

Sun Coast
4/9 - Aljareeza

Swan Hill
1/10 - Liquid Sunshine
4/1 - Happyendo

Warwick Farm
4/5 - Western Symbol

[michaelg]

Correction. The selection is Ballarat R1 no.8, not no.7.

[ubetido]

Hi Michaelg

When you look at the odds market order do you use default or set at 100%.

At a glance it seems some additional filters may tighten things.

Cheers
ubetido

[michaelg]

Ubetido, I have his market at 90%.

I have looked at applying some filters but unfortunately cannot at this time find anything worthwhile.

It's disappointing that the method is going backwards. I would have expected his short priced selections to have done better.

[ubetido]

Michaelg

It may just be a bad patch as most systems seem to encounter. Time will tell.

If deemed necessary perhaps a starting point may be to look at the ones that won out of the selections and see if there is a pattern of indicators that may sift them out from the others.

Regards
Ubetido

[convert]

Hello Michaelg,
Just out of interest, where do you get the Don Scott ratings from? Is there a web site? Thanks.

[michaelg]

Convert, it is on the Racing and Sports website.

On their front page there is a menu on the left - click on to Free Daily stats which will take you to a page that lists the venues of today's racing.

On the right-hand side there are four symbols against each venue. The third symbol looks like an open page with a blue strip at the top.

When you click this symbol it will take you to a worksheet which shows Don Scott's market at the right under the heading of DIV.

There's a lot of info in this area.

[convert]

Thanks Michaelg, Racing and Sports eh, I'll check it out.
Ta
convert

[Bhagwan]

One method of controlling the outs .

Is to stop if we hit 12 outs in a row .(Optional to set your own level of outs)

Then recommence once a winner gets up for us.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Convert,

Welcome, another way to get to the stats and many other interesting information is:-

When you enter the Racing and Sports website put your curser on Racing (just under the banner at the top), a drop down menu will appear, just click on Racing and Sports Ratings and then click on Race Meeting and it will open up all you need.

Enjoy!

[darkydog2002]

Hi Michealg,
Are your best results from this method on Races 1 - 4?

Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Hi Convert,
As a user of ratings for many years I,ve found r+s (Don Scott Ratings) ,Wizard online,and Unitab the most reliable.

Cheers
darky

[convert]

Thanks for the friendly suggestions guys, much appreciated. I may even have a few contributions of my own I can share once I get accustomed to the workings of the forum. Good luck!

[michaelg]

Darky, the results for races 1 to 4 are not too bad.

The outlay was $34 for a return on Win betting of $27.30, and $34.70 for the Place. Still not too encouraging even though betfair prices would probably have shown a profit.