Fractured Favourites - LAY

[TheSchmile]

Hi all,

Here's a LAY system I'm dabbling with. I'm not betting selections at present, however I will post them and monitor from there.

Rules:
1/ Must be pre-post fav (I'm using way2bet)
2/ Must not have won at the track, the distance or in today's track conditions.
3/ No Maidens

Note: Regarding Good and Dead track, I differentiate between the both, so if the selection has won on Dead but not Good such as Lord Wimble today, it is a selection. I am also using racingandsports form to gage whether they have won in today's track conditions.

For now I'm not putting any price parameters on the selections and will record profit/loss figures using flat 1 unit stakes according to Betfair SP.

Today's selections:
Hamilton
6 - 3 Honour Jacko
7 - 1 Wells
8 - 3 Lord Wimble



Cheers,

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Apologies,

8 - 3 Lord Wimble has been scratched

[TheSchmile]

Nice start to proceedings with both horses unplaced.

6 - 3 Honour Jacko - $4.39 SP
7 - 1 Wells - $5.07 SP

Out: 2 In: 2
P/L: +2

[TheSchmile]

Just the one lay today based on current slow conditions at Kembla Grange.

Kembla Grange
6 - 2 Rampart



Cheers,

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Not a good Lay today.

Rampart$3.07 SP killed them by 2 lengths and had previous form at 1200m behind Testarhythm.

I was worried before the race, however for the purpose of testing the system decided to keep it as a selection.

Might introduce a rule:

Cannot be coming down in class.

New rules:
1/ Must be pre-post fav (I'm using way2bet)
2/ Must not have won at the track, the distance or in today's track conditions.
3/ No Maidens
4/ Cannot be coming down in class

Out: 1 In: - 2.07
Running P/L: -0.07

[TheSchmile]

Today's selections:

Balaclava
8 - 5 Always Focus

Belmont
3 - 6 Box'ochocolates

Canterbury
1 - 1 Many Stars
3 - 3 Moravany


The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Bitten by Many Stars.

Me thinks this is a system for the country/provincials.

[TheSchmile]

Bounced Back after the initial loss today:

Balaclava
8 - 5 Always Focus - unpl $3.35

Belmont
3 - 6 Box'ochocolates - 2nd $4.53

Canterbury
1 - 1 Many Stars - 1st $3.24
3 - 3 Moravany - unpl (4 horse field)

Out: 4 In: 4.61
P/L: .61

Running P/L: + 0.44

[TheSchmile]

Showers scheduled for Grafton and the Gold Coast so conditions could change rapidly:

Today's selelctions (with conditions they have won in next to them in bold):

Gold Coast
7 - 5 Top of the Rock D
Grafton
9 - 3 Now who's cautious G, S
Launceston
1 - 2 Jacorijim G



The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Just the one selection after track conditions settled for a collect:

7 - 5 Top of the Rock 3rd $3

Out: 1 In: .95
P/L: .95
Running P/L: +1.56

[TheSchmile]

Canberra
7- 6 Gladiator AW, G

Wyong
4 - 3 Klaatu

The Scmile

[TheSchmile]

Two successes today.

Canberra
7- 6 Gladiator AW, G unpl $10.5

Wyong
4 - 3 Klaatu 3rd $3.95

Out: 2 In: 1.90
P/L: 1.90
Running P/L: +3.46


The Schmile

[The Ocho]

Well done TheSchmile.

It looks like it's starting to come together. Is it enough action for you? I know I can't just stop at 1 or 2 bets a day. I'm not wired that way.

That's probably why I'm no good at systems and love trading the horses. :D

[TheSchmile]

Cheers The Ocho,

This one's more of a set and forget system around race 3 when track conditions have generally settled.

If you're betting throughout the day, you will get a lot more action as the way2bet fav often doesn't start as the actual fav. I was just looking for a free online resource to find the selections.

I'm interested just to follow this for a while to see if a profit can be made, I'm not putting any money down at the moment.

Thanks for your comments and have a fine Saturday, should be a great weekend with quality racing today and tomorrow!!

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Toowoomba (AW)
2 - 1 Modern Al D, S

Wagga
5 - 1 Little Jo G, D

Strathalbyn
4 - 4 Academy Belle S

Mornington
2 - 10 Beckon D

[TheSchmile]

3/4 yesterday with the only hiccup Beckon at $1.38.

Results:
Toowoomba (AW)
2 - 1 Modern Al D, S 2nd $4.40

Wagga
5 - 1 Little Jo G, D unpl $5.4

Strathalbyn
4 - 4 Academy Belle S unpl $11.65

Mornington
2 - 10 Beckon D WON $1.38

Out:4 In: 6.47
P/L: 2.47

Running P/L: 5.93


Today's selections:
Cootamundra
1 - 2 Winning Tiger G, AW
6 - 1 Bee Stinger G, D, AW

Morphettville
2 - 3 Societal AW


The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Gave a bit back on Sunday with 2/3 saluting.

Results:

Cootamundra
1 - 2 Winning Tiger G, AW 2nd $4.38
6 - 1 Bee Stinger G, D, AW WON $3.48

Morphettville
2 - 3 Societal AW WON $2.18

Out: 3 In: 0.29
P/L: - 2.71

Running P/L: + 3.22

[TheSchmile]

Today's selection:

Goulbourn
2 - 3 I'm Mary Too

Apologies for yesterday my family was in town so I didn't get a chance to post.

Looking over results for the past week excluding yesterday, we've hit 10/14 successful lays. Of those all the hiccups were priced at $3.48 or under with a WIN strike rate of 80% for the shorter priced selections.

Lay strike rate: 10/14 or 71.4%
Profit: +3.22
P.O.T: 23%

Might be worth running a BOT to exclude runners below $3.50 to drag up strike rate and profitability. I stress the word MIGHT, as obviously this is a tiny sample and things can change dramatically.

Have a good Tuesday.

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Another shortie gets up. Interesting to note that there were no distance winners in the race. Might be something to look at.

Result:
Goulburn
2 - 3 I'm Mary Too WON $2.91

Out: 1 In: - 1.91
P/L: -1.91
Running P/L: +1.31

Lay strike rate: 10/15 or 66%
P.O.T: 8.7%

Cheers,

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Gawler
6 - 2 Divine Being G, D

Canterbury
6 - 3 Rain Drum G

Belmont
2 - 3 Cat Five

Cheers,

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Even day yesterday with 2/3 successful lays.

I'm taking this idea offline to tweak it as it is plateauing out.

I hope you've enjoyed the concept.

Cheers,

The Schmile