Winning Weights

[gunny72]

I am looking at weight carried by winners for trends. I found the following data somewhere in this forum.

wt carried % of winners in this wt range
60-61.5 13
58-59.5 12
56-57.5 10
54-55.5 8
52-53.5 6

I was wondering if anyone with a good database could provide more detailed data, say, a % for each kg or better still each half kg.
gunny

[darkydog2002]

Try Malcolm Knowles booklet "Weight".(www.inracing.com.au)

Great stats and invaluable information.

i.e 55 KG + account for 36.5 % of runners but win 50.6 % of races

Much much more about weight.

[Vortech]

See attached

[gunny72]

Thank you guys. Excellent info. Now I will spend another day playing with the data. I am looking at the possible advantage of higher weighted horses as a measure of class.
gunny

[TheSchmile]

Interesting weights runner today:

Doomben 3 - 1 Found the One

Won its last two starts with 53kg's.

Goes up to 58kg's today, though ends up with 56.5 after the claim.

Currently $1.70 with the Bookies.

The Schmile

[darkydog2002]

That was the purpose of Malcolms research.

[TheSchmile]

Doomben 3 - 1 Found the One

Ended up a nice lay.

The Schmile

[Barny]

gunny72, your percentages add up to 49%

[gunny72]

I agree barny, but these percents are the strike rates for a given weight range and perhaps do not have to add to 100%. They do indicate that higher weighted horses seem to have an advantage and I believe this is because of their class.

gunny

[The Ocho]

I agree barny, but these percents are the strike rates for a given weight range and perhaps do not have to add to 100%. They do indicate that higher weighted horses seem to have an advantage and I believe this is because of their class.

gunny
But if you back the top weight(s) (which would be TAB no 1 or 2 or 3) then that also doesn't work on its own.

[TheSchmile]

From memory no.1 wins around 20% of all races.

It's not a bad place to start your form analysis.

If you don't like the top weight, move to the next race.

At the very least you'll be backing the horse that the official handicapper rates the highest, so it's as good as any a place to focus one's efforts.

I would definitely then ask:

Has it won at the distance in the last 12 months?
Has it carried weight before?

Look at Belmont today, the toppies have been on fire.

The Schmile

[gunny72]

I agree that weight on its own is insufficient but for the last three weeks in Brisbane Sat I have been supplementing my consistency ratings with a class rating based apparent weight advantage and the results have been more than encouraging, hence my interest in getting more accurate data.
gunny