Effective Filters for Selections (Any Ideas?)

[Twodogs]

I use many filters for my selections but one I have found quite effective is down in weight down in distance no bet.It knocks out the deadwood most of the time.Does anyone use jockey or trainer strike rates?

Cheers
Twodogs

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Twodogs on 2003-02-12 20:07 ]</font>

[darkydog2002]

how about leaders and on pace runners only.

[darkydog2002]

how about leaders and on pace runners only.

[Twodogs]

Darkydog with you with close up horses, hate having a bet on a horse that has to be ridden for luck. You never can tell how much trouble it will get into. A chap I know only backs horses that have 1/1 for the 800/400m last start.

Cheers
Twodogs

[Tony]

I use a 5 - 25 career starts filter on all mine. Cuts down your bets a lot of course but has improved the bottom line of anything I have tried.
Only get horses with enough form to mean something and haven't yet won their races.

[Chrome Prince]

G'day Tony,

As a suggestion, on of the most effective filters I have found is average prizemoney ranking.
This is one of the strongest filters in relation to a horses performance against the opposition.
I would set a rule that it must at least be in the top three.
Of course, you have to take into consideration the gap in average prizemoney as well.
You can have three or four horses with a gap of only $5,000 which doesn't help much, or you can have two horses which are $20,000 above the rest of the field. This is where it is most effective.
Good Luck.

[Twodogs]

Tony and Chrome Prince thanks for your input. I have a general rule of 3-35 career runs and generally prefer 2-5 year olds. I will take lighty raced 6 year olds. There is merit for prizemoney as long as you avoid horses that won a big race and has gone off the boil.

Cheers
Twodogs

[Bhagwan]

Try this ,

18% up or down in distance

[Luckyboy]

Hi Twodogs,

As a first up filter, I have yet to come across a better one than Friday paper pre-post prices.

I use a filter that looks for the Top 6 priced horses in a race that are priced under $12.00. I have found this rule produces a selection of horses wherein 80% of all winners come from.

Obviously I use other filters to further qualify my selection.


Rgds,
Luckyboy

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Luckyboy on 2003-02-25 15:06 ]</font>

[Twodogs]

Thanks for your input Luckyboy. Your filter is a good start. You will cull quite a percentage of the field before you get started and this in itself will save wasting time on likely non-performers.

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

Interesting filter Bhagwan. Would you care to expand on the idea at all and how you came up with the 18%?

Cheers
Twodogs

[Bhagwan]

Trial & error over thousands of races

[Gerry]

G'day twodogs,guarantee you will improve your strike rate if you restrict your bets to races with 12 starters or less.

[Mr. Logic]

Twodogs, high strike rates are not the main aim. What is important is your strike rate in comparison to the odds of your winners.
You will improve your strike rate even further if you restrict yourself to races with 8 runners and so on.
But a 50% strike rate with winners at $1.50 is no good. A 10% strike rate with winners at $20.00 is brilliant.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Mr. Logic on 2003-02-27 11:25 ]</font>

[sentabool]

Some of the filters I use for my selection methods include :-

1) Must not be carrying any more than 58kg.

2) Must be ranked in the top 60 % of runners when ranked by average prize money. (ie in Top 6 if 10 runners)

3) Ridden by a top jockey - for mine a top jockey is one with a strike rate on the jockey tables of 6.0 or less. I also accept jockeys that have won on the selection before as a top jockey regardless of their strike rate.

4)Won on track condition - if slow or heavy track is involved.

5)Last run within 30 days unless good fresh record.

6)Win % > 20%.

I don't necessarily use all of these filters for all methods - it's a bit of trial and error but generally they have served me well.

Also what I tend to do is if a selection fails on the filters I don't discard it as a bet - just throw it into a "speculative" category with a largely reduced bet - sometimes only $1. Over time this allows you to continue to monitor the base selection method and the impact of the filters. I have trashed many selection methods using this approach (and saved lots in the process).

Cheers.

[Twodogs]

Thanks for the input guys. Mr Logic your right about strikerate what I think the logic of most filters is to weed out the unlikely horses before you settle down and do your own form study and isolate what you think is the most likely winner.

Watch out for horses that ran last start on a rain effected track. You can never be sure whether it's last run may have taken something out of the horse without a suitable break to recover.

Cheers
Twodogs

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Twodogs on 2003-03-04 22:31 ]</font>

Twodogs,the most effective filter of all,NEVER BET ON HEAVY TRACKS.Cheers,angel

[noel]

angel,
i don't know where everyone gets this idea about not betting on wet tracks .....from my study of reults favourites win just as often on heavy tracks as fast tracks....so the majority must be getting the form right most of the time....
cheers, noel

[Twodogs]

I suppose each to their own. Depends on your comfort levels and how well you know your selection methods whether you take on wet tracks.

Cheers
Twodogs

[GettingItRight]

I have found starting price to be a very good filter. If the price is over say 12/1 then this will eliminate many duds. If starting price is under 3/1 then often this group of selections will not be profitable – don’t throw them away as you might be able to be super selective and turn a profit by treating this group separately.

[partypooper]

my 2 penny worth is, never bet on 2nd up IF won 1st up.

and selection must have ran within 3.5lenghts of winner last start, and also be within 3.5kgs of set weight last start (IGNORE CLAIMS) this means up or down.

[Chrome Prince]

I made mention earlier in this topic of one of the most critical things being Average Prizemoney ranking.

Provided the horse is fit and has a decent strike rate, and is in the market, this is the best guide.

Tonight at Moonee Valley had two bets - one win, one loss.

Not bad, but 50% strike rate is not to be sneezed at.

[partypooper]

Looks like I'd better qualify my previous input,..... presumably everyone contributes a filter based on the statistical evidence?????well that is so with my suggestions also, in more than 40,000 horse races on Metro tracks, the winner was much more likely to come from the contenders that fit the criteria offered, so I guess thats the same sort of statistical data as say....prizemoney etc????