Looking for Opinions Or Statistics

[Dale]

Hi Guys,

Tyring to improve my understanding of some research and looking for opinions or statistics on a couple of things.

The first is in relation to the difference between your win return and place return.

Using these figures as an example we see the place return is better than the win return on all of the top 3 selections.


Sel. No races Win ret. Pl ret. W% Plc%
1 6330 -1135.4 -1064.04 - 17.93% -16.80%
2 6297 -1477.9 -1164.60 -23.46% -18.49%
3 6228 -1439.4 -1385.88 -23.11% -22.25%


I have not come across this situation before and would like to hear what you guys think, ie the difference in percentage you usualy expect or the type of system dictating outcome.

Every other system i have tested the win return has outperformed the place return?




Same lot of research different question.

If i am to filter race size and only concentrate on races with 11 starters or more i usualy find it improves my return,lowers the strike rates but improves the return more than enough to compensate.

Can anyone provide me with figures of their own and demonstrate what happens to thier returns if the above filter is applied,doesnt matter what the system or if in profit or loss just interested in the difference.

Cheers

[darkydog2002]

Its rare but does happen where the Place return is greater.
According to Tom Waterhouse expect the place price to be 1/5 of the win price these days.

Cheers
darky

[beton]

Dale
Hi
Everything comes back to price. This is the TAB price. The fav has a strike rate of >81% at $1.20 and > than 23% when over $5. This is the greatest variable. The next greatest variable is runners. There is an increase in the fav's strike rate as you go less than 8 runners. There is only a fractional decrease in the strike rate as more runner are added. As the track deteriates there is a fractional decrease in the fav's strike rate. There also is a steady increase in the fav's strike rate as the class increases. But this is only over 3-5%. Distance has only a fractional increase as the distance increases. All in the average fav strike rate is within 2-4% of mooted averages except for price. There is very little difference whether you have 9 runners or 14 runners. There is less than 1% difference in the fav's strike rate but a vast difference in number of possible races to bet on. Beton

[Dale]

Its rare but does happen where the Place return is greater.
According to Tom Waterhouse expect the place price to be 1/5 of the win price these days.

Cheers
darky


Hi Darky,

This question to you or anyone else who may be able to answer it.

If my average win price was $4.20 what would be the expected average place price?

Same question but using $5.00 would be helpfull too.

[Dale]

Dale
Hi
There is very little difference whether you have 9 runners or 14 runners. Beton


Hi Beton,

This might not ring true for the research im looking at as im dealing with horses of all price ranges,things would tend to be more exaggerated as the price gets higher?

Secondly i see what your saying about the strike rate,does that hold true for returns though?

[UselessBettor]

Hi Darky,

This question to you or anyone else who may be able to answer it.

If my average win price was $4.20 what would be the expected average place price?

Same question but using $5.00 would be helpfull too.
Dale,

The bookie place price would be 1/5 for a $4.20. So to work this out you do the following ($4.20-1)/5+$1.00 = $1.64

Of course this isn't the best way to estimate the palce price but its the approximation. If you were to do the Harville method you would assume it had the following (assuming 3 place prices).

It has a 23.8% chance of coming first. If you know the rest of the horse prices you could then work oiut its chance of runing second. I'll assume 8 other horses all priced at $10 which is a 93% bookie market. So if a horse at $10 ran first the horse has a chance of 26.45% of running second. If a $10 horse runs second it has a 29.7% chance of running third. Add all these up and it has a 50.50% chance of running a place. Based on this the price should be $2.00

I hope that makes sense.

[beton]

Dale
Hi
Strike rate at any price is still a negative return. I have a sample of 43000+ races that are correlated to price. The included fields are ranking, distance, number of runners, going and the weather. All related to the fav SP in 10 cent increments. The general averages hold for the averages that are bandied around. When you start being specific then you can increase the strike rate and the return. But you greatly reduce the available races. The short fav in a group 1 with 10 runners on a good track in fine weather at 1600+ has a better strike rate than average. It was interesting to see how many shorties fall in maidens. When you multiply the odds by the strike rate it is always a negative.
The areas that I saw an advantage was betting the shorts in top class races if you can get the best odds. Laying in the lower classes. Overall laying the lot. The latter I only see an advantage to the fav = or < $3 and only up to a max $30 and =/+ 9 runners.
One other anomaly was the third fav when the first fav was short. You still need $6+ to come out in front. It is an area that may bear looking at. Beton

[Bhagwan]

Hi Dale,
I have come across a similar stat

Based on 60,000 races.

For instance.
UniTAB 100 ptrs that are overlapped with the Radio TAB selections.

Percentage Return on Investment (RTO) of Radio TAB top 3 & 100pts
Example .91 means 91% ret on 100% = -9% Loss.

100pts and
RadioTAB-------------------W ----Plc ----Diff
1st. 66% Plc SR -----------.85--- .91 ----6pts
2nd. 59% Plc SR--------.-- .87 -- .92 ----5pts
3rd. 52% Plc SR----------- .83 -.- .87 ----4pts

Place staking plan that may work.

Black Box Staking Plan.
Increase bet by 1 unit after every 2nd successful bet, until in profit .
Then start again .
Example
1 1p 1 1 1p 2p 2p 3 3 3 3p 3 3p 4p 4 ect

[Dale]

Hi Dale,
I have come across a similar stat

Based on 60,000 races.

For instance.
UniTAB 100 ptrs that are overlapped with the Radio TAB selections.

Percentage Return on Investment (RTO) of Radio TAB top 3 & 100pts
Example .91 means 91% ret on 100% = -9% Loss.

100pts and
RadioTAB-------------------W ----Plc ----Diff
1st. 66% Plc SR -----------.85--- .91 ----6pts
2nd. 59% Plc SR--------.-- .87 -- .92 ----5pts
3rd. 52% Plc SR----------- .83 -.- .87 ----4pts

Place staking plan that may work.

Black Box Staking Plan.
Increase bet by 1 unit after every 2nd successful bet, until in profit .
Then start again .
Example
1 1p 1 1 1p 2p 2p 3 3 3 3p 3 3p 4p 4 ect


Thanks Bhagwan was looking for something like that,my concern is that the horses i have tested are at much larger prices where the difference between win and place price is greater.

[Dale]

Cheers Useless Better and Beton.

[Dale]

Starting to question the figures i have been provided.

An early running total with multiple decimal points in the win and place return throws the whole thing into question.

races win place
--------------------------------------------
5738 -962.6594 -839.9205

Thanks for your help,sorry for the time waste.