Observation

[beton]

I admit that I am firing from the hip here but a simple setting me straight will shut me up. I am laying the field to <$30 if the fav is<$4. One thing I am noticing is the number of races that I don't get on because the fav is >$4.

My research is tote based not Betfair. 26.5% of races on the tote have the fav>$3.50. Their strike rate is from 26.2% at $3.60 in a straight progression to 11.7% at $5.50. In each case the strike rate times the return is poor. 80-90% of outlay.

What I am noticing is that there seems to be a higher rate of races >$4 than the tote figures. Today 13 from 41 races already run have been >$4 Far in excess of the tote. It gets worst in UK. A simple calc says that this is close to break even.

Has any one got a breakdown of the strike rate and return of +$4 betfair favs?
It may be prudent to trial. Beton

[4legs]

Beton - I have that info for the previous 3 months (Jul/Aug/Sep) - but I take the top rank and price at 10 seconds before start. I could also give you the final top rank and price but not sure if you could always get on at that price. I will provide it tomorrow.

Just arrived home and found Unitab have changed their website so will have to sort that out first #%#@#@ !! .. first Betfair now Unitab!!

[UselessBettor]

I don't have the stats but why not just check against the betfair historical data. You can get free at data.betfair.com.au

Make sure you use the .com.au site otherwise you need 100 betfair points in order to qualify to get the UK data.

4legs, Use the unitab XML feed. It hasn't changed.

[beton]

Thanks 4legs That would be appreciated. Of these 13 races >$4 run today 3 won (23% SR) paying $12 (92.3%) on WA TAB. I have not looked at Betfair yet but it should be a plus. Beton

[The Ocho]

Hi beton

I have been recording the first fav for nearly the last 3 months however in July I was recording backing so it may be a bit out. The win/losses are for laying the 1st favs but no commission is deducted which adds up to a fair bit. I'm also not sure if >4 means 4 and above or 4.1 and above so included both.

I hope it helps.

July 9-31
4.0+ 246 Bets, 197 favs lost, 20% Winning S/R, -$13.7
4.1+ 262, 211, 19.5% SR, -$21.7

August
4.0+ 377, 303, 19.7% SR, +$24.2
4.1+ 359, 290, 19.3% SR, +$26.2

September 1-22
4.0+ 265, 200, 24.6% SR, -$44.6
4.1+ 254, 191, 24.8% SR, -$47.6

I found it to be all over the place and when I thought backing was bad in July I changed to laying in August which was okay until September :rolleyes:

Fair dinkum, this betting games for mugs. :(

[beton]

Thanks Ocho.
The strike rate looks up a bit higher than the tote SR for the same price. 19% at $4.10 and sliding on the tote. Ultimately one would be losing or just shifting rocks around the paddock. If you are just shifting rocks , one may as well drive the local garbage truck. At least you get paid for effort. I downloaded some betfair history but it is beyond me (I must learn excel ) Less effort to trial it. On the Aus races I think it may be hard work to just break even. UK I have a hunch is better. The prices seem better from the glancing that I have done and there seems to be a substantial bias. I seem to be missing out on 50% of the races. If the average fav win accross the board is circa 33% then the UK + $4 market must be skewed to the mid 20ies%. I will see how I can keep tabs on it. Beton

[Bhagwan]

If you go to the Adrian Massey site for UK stats, they have an interactive web

site to test things like price range for Favs.

[4legs]

As at at the 10 sec before close (BSP). The return is closing SP with no commissions deducted. Period July/Aug/Sept.

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="348"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3145;width:65pt" width="86"> <col style="width:48pt" span="3" width="64"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2560;width:53pt" width="70"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:12.0pt" height="16"> <td class="xl66" style="height:12.0pt;width:65pt" height="16" width="86">Range</td> <td class="xl66" style="width:48pt" width="64">Number</td> <td class="xl66" style="width:48pt" width="64">Wins</td> <td class="xl66" style="width:48pt" width="64">S/Rate</td> <td class="xl66" style="width:53pt" width="70">Return</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.0pt" height="16"> <td class="xl66" style="height:12.0pt" height="16">$0.00 - $2.00</td> <td class="xl67"> 371 </td> <td class="xl67"> 204 </td> <td class="xl68">55%</td> <td class="xl71"> $ 353.48 </td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.0pt" height="16"> <td class="xl66" style="height:12.0pt" height="16">$2.01 - $3.00</td> <td class="xl67"> 1,004 </td> <td class="xl67"> 400 </td> <td class="xl68">40%</td> <td class="xl71"> $ 1,031.80 </td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.0pt" height="16"> <td class="xl66" style="height:12.0pt" height="16">$3.01 - $4.00</td> <td class="xl67"> 1,144 </td> <td class="xl67"> 340 </td> <td class="xl68">30%</td> <td class="xl71"> $ 1,219.78 </td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.0pt" height="16"> <td class="xl66" style="height:12.0pt" height="16">$4.01 - $5.00</td> <td class="xl67"> 671 </td> <td class="xl67"> 131 </td> <td class="xl68">20%</td> <td class="xl71"> $ 590.12 </td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.0pt" height="16"> <td class="xl66" style="height:12.0pt" height="16">$5.01 - $6.00</td> <td class="xl67"> 222 </td> <td class="xl67"> 42 </td> <td class="xl68">19%</td> <td class="xl71"> $ 230.12 </td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.0pt" height="16"> <td class="xl66" style="height:12.0pt" height="16">$6.01 - $7.00</td> <td class="xl67"> 43 </td> <td class="xl67"> 7 </td> <td class="xl68">16%</td> <td class="xl71"> $ 43.42 </td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.0pt" height="16"> <td class="xl66" style="height:12.0pt" height="16">>$7</td> <td class="xl67"> 6 </td> <td class="xl67"> 1 </td> <td class="xl68">17%</td> <td class="xl71"> $ 5.69 </td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.0pt" height="16"> <td class="xl66" style="height:12.0pt" height="16">
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td class="xl68">
</td> <td class="xl66">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl66" style="height:12.75pt" height="17">
</td> <td class="xl69"> 3,461 </td> <td class="xl69"> 1,125 </td> <td class="xl70">33%</td> <td class="xl72"> $ 3,474.41 </td> </tr> </tbody></table>

[AngryPixie]

If you go to the Adrian Massey site for UK stats, they have an interactive web

site to test things like price range for Favs.

Historic data only though. No longer updated :(

[beton]

4Legs Thanks
I have added the tote strike rate for the same price range. The conclusion that I draw is that it confirms that the Betfair prices are higher. I only went to $5.70 as that was as much as I had printed on my reference sheet. Still you take off commissions and you are behind the 8 ball.

Range -------Number -Wins -S/Rate ---Return ----Tote SR
$0.00 - $2.00 --371 -- 204 --- 55% --$ 353.48 ---50.34%
$2.01 - $3.00 -1,004 -400 --- 40% --$ 1,031.80--33.67%
$3.01 - $4.00 -1,144 - 340--- 30% --$ 1,219.78--25.40%
$4.01 - $5.00 ---671- 131--- 20% ---$ 590.12 --17.06%
$5.01 - $6.00 ---222-- 42 --- 19% ---$ 230.12 --15.60%
$6.01 - $7.00 ---43 ----7 ----16% ---$ 43.42 --
>$7------------- 6 -----1 ----17% ----$ 5.69
--------------3,461 1,125 --- 33% ---$ 3,474.41

The observation that I am making is that my tote analysis has 15% of races occur with the fav at over $4. Your results show on Betfair 27%. On the UK races this seems higher. 13 races out of 31 last night. Thats 42%. One can read into that higher average prices which should mean turning a commission loss into positive territory. Beton

[beton]

Bhagwan
Thanks
I have just looked at Adrian's site.
20 years data confirms that UK racing is similar to Aus results - Fav wins 34% overall. Returns 92% which is more than Aus. Fav's greater than $4 occur in only 10% of races with a 16% strike rate and a 90% return.

But these are tote returns (I assume ) which brings the old question "What is the difference between the tote return and the betfair return.
So using the following assumptions.
Betfair reflects the fav on the tote
Therefore Betfair favs win 34% approx
Betfair will have strike rates for each price at a inversely proportional sliding scale similar to the tote. (shorter the price the higher the strike rate)
The 16% SR is only based on 10% of UK races
15% of Aus races are + $4
Betfair Aus has 27% races at + $4
Betfair prices are higher than tote prices
My observation is that considerably more than 10% UK races are starting at >$4 (8+ runners) considerably more than 15% or even 27% are starting at >$4. This leads to a possibiliy of a positive return in this area by backing the fav.
Hence we have several courses of action
(1) Can somebody extract the historical data from UK Betfair and /or
(2) I will have to trial it
Beton

[beton]

Sim mode test overnight was very positive but one fine day does not make a summer. I did pick up a laying system which was basically lay the fav between $4.50 and $6.90. That had some saying great (the system was sold ) and some saying run. Mind you there seemed to be confecture in the rules all of which were not revealed. Beton

[Bhagwan]

The reason why Adrians site says 34% Win SR is because that includes duel Favs.

Without the duel favs & it becomes 30%

UK Favs often pay more because they often have large fields especially the Irish races where the Fav could be as high as 11.00 & they sometimes still win.
This can throw the averages out somewhat.


Generally Betfair pays 20% more.
One has to allow for the 5% commission
Which makes its net price 15% more than the TAB.

Its funny how certain punters wine about the 5% Betfair com,
but say nothing about the TAB's 18.5% loading which includes their rounding down of of divs paid e.g. Calculated div 3.09 TAB rounds down to 3.00
That's a 4.5% take for nothing
One has to use fractional odds to work out the calculation.

[beton]

Bhagwan Thanks.
Shooting from memory in all price ranges the fav is good on Aus racing. IE if a $4 horse was multiplied by its strike rate the return would be even of slightly better then less the TAB commission. Actual odds make it $4.56 horse ($1 bet + $3 gain + $0.555 commission) Backing at BF the same horse would be $4.60 less $0.18 which still creates a slight loss. The only ways to win is increase the price you get or cut out the losers.
The observation that I am making is that the prices for the favs are getting longer in the UK. I cannot see the winning fav ratio changing nor the public getting it wrong. I suspect the public are demanding better odds. Last night 31 races 7 of which qualified at >8 runners and <$4 fav. I did not confirm but about 17 were <8 runners and 7 were >8 runners and >$4 fav. Thats 50%. 4 lost and 3 won giving a very good result.

That 50% is greater than the 10-15% of tote at >$4 and greater than 4Legs summary at 27%. Why I don't but it could be maturing market.

It bears looking and thus I will look. All assistance is welcome. Beton
If the above sounds fuzzy it because the elephant is a bit hard to kickstart this morning.

[beton]

I have had this on sim mode the past 4 nights. 3 winning nights followed by a one unit loss last night. There is definately a bias here. Beton

[beton]

10 Days in for 7 winning nights and 3 losers. I'am a believer and went live last night.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Beton,
Did you say you are Back betting the 4.00+ Favs.

[beton]

Yes Bhagwan.
Hope you did not try last night. Last night took back Sunday nights gain. 1 winner for 11 losses. But still way in front. Last night was an example of what I am seeing, 12 races in a 21 race card were starting with a $4+ fav. That is better than 50% Most nights it is between 33% and 50% are $4+.
A $4 Betfair horse is a $3.50 Tote horse. At the end of the day they are still going to win at the same ratio. The shift we are seeing is a money shift.
I downloaded from BBP 3000+ race results from $3.25. I don't know what I can do with them (zero excell skills) but they come out with a slight profit which would disappear with commissions. I would like to sort out the $4+ and see.
Beton

[partypooper]

Beton, taking nothing away from your idea it may well work. But just have to say something about that 20% better on BF, er, that should be ****. i.e. the greater the price range the larger % difference, conversly as you go down in price so the advantage disappears to a negative.

I have done extensive comparisons, and backing Bob, TF, best tote/sp all beat BF HANDS DOWN, by as much as 10% (backing favs that is)

[beton]

Party
That is what I want to hear. It is something that I have no experience nor the means to find out short of doing it. I have ancedotal evidence of 20% but I have also seen numerous occassions of the tote beating Betfair. The two are totally different. The tote is directly proportional to the money placed. Betfair is market based and is a can of worms. I want and need to get a comparsion between the two.

You are saying that to your experience the difference is a sliding scale from -10% to a say +50% at 100:1 This I can live with but I would live better if you could tell me approximately when they cross over i.e. at $4.50 a tote horse finishes with the same strike rate as a $4.50 betfair horse. We are talking average here. And a gut feeling is better than nothing. The crossover must be close.
Thanks Beton

[Bhagwan]

I have found those $4.00+ favs, they seem to get up more in races 4 5 6 7 8
for what ever reason.

With this info , you can cull a percentage to maybe drive it into profit.

[partypooper]

Beton, yeah, I wish I could answer your question definitively but the truth is I don't know where that "cut off" point is; as I usually back favs (or close to)

All I can say for sure is that so called AVERAGE is accumulated with the 100-1 shots + that's for sure, when it comes down to the nags that most of us are backing the so-called 20% better odds are a total "PIPE DREAM" it doesn't exist!

And then take the 5%, well, where are you? you can take it from me....... bet at BOB/Top Fluc/ Best Tote/SP/ Best tote,..... as available, you will be at least 10% in front of BF and that's no bool sheet!