Test Lay Method

[michaelg]

Here's a Lay method that could be promising.

1) $2.50 or less in Don Scott's market.
2) Not top selection in his BRR rankings.

I've looked at the past two days' results. There were 20 selections for 17 successes, the total liability was $6.30 using TAB divvies. There have also been 2 selections that had equal points in the BRR rankings but I did not include them in the results - they both lost their races.

If anyone's interested today's selections are:

Coonamble
5/3
6/3
9/10

Devenport
5/7

Geraldton
2/8
3/2
4/11

Hawkesbury
2/9

Penola
1/2
4/6

Tatura
3/6

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. From the 10 selections (one was scratched) layed on S.P. for the minimum liability of $30 there were 8 smiles for a profit of $71.84.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Cessnock
1/2
7/3

Donald
8/5

Leeton
7/3

[michaelg]

A loss today. There was 1 accident from the 4 selections for a loss of $5.17.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for sharing your findings Michael , it looks promising.

I see it picked some real hot Favs that fell over big time.

My experience in the past when targeting this price range is one will enjoy many successes then , BAM up comes a day where 70% decide to get up .

The rule I find that seems to work well is ...
Cease betting on the day with any Lay system that gets hit with 3 wins in a row, because pattern tends to get worse on the day.
There always tomorrow.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Bhagwan.

However, I lay the bets early because I'm often not at my computer during most of the day so that I don't record any daily sequence. It's quite possible there may be successive accidents because of most of the selections are high in the market. In the testing period there were a few Unitab odds-on selections, and they were all beaten. Fingers crossed...

One selection today:

Townsville 5/9 ($2.80 fave in the pre-post market.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole selection won for a loss of $30. After 3 days the method is $36.67 in profit.

Today's selections are:

Murray Bridge
5/6

Northam
1/7

Randwick
1/2
2/1

[michaelg]

There were 2 accidents today, luckily I did not lay them. However I layed a few horses by using a different method, which shows both promise and logic if D.Scott's market is accurate.

The rules are simple.

1) To qualify as a race, all horses must have at least 2 starts.
2) Identify all single priced horses in Don Scott's market.
3) Lay them on S.P. providing they are under D.Scott's prices.

I have not recorded Northam because there have not yet been any qualifying races.

There was only one accident today but 21 smiles, 2 even at odds-on.

The loss was $30, but according to my figures about $155 was won, giving a profit of about $125.

[michaelg]

I've used the above-mentioned Lay system with the last three races at Northam for a profit of $62.33.

The method might have promise.

[Bhagwan]

Well done Michael.

That's jolly impressive.

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, yes, yesterday was impressive, but its much too early to tell. Especially D.S.'s market can often be quite puzzling.

Today's first qualifying race (Wyong R1) has now been run. I made a profit of $17.07 using the method. He rated the $4.50 (TAB divvy) winner at $2.50.

Hoping it continues.

[michaelg]

Yesterday the method produced a profit of $84.29. After two days the profit is $146.62.

I'll now end this thread. The rules have been listed so if anyone likes this form of laying they can continue, or even apply their own variations.

If the success continues I might give updates.

[The Ocho]

That looks very promising michaelg, well done! :)

When you say "Lay them on S.P. providing they are under D.Scott's prices" do you mean above the DS price?. You gave an example where the TAB DIV was $4.50 and the DS price was $2.50. Wouldn't that not be a selection?

Also your laying at SP so that is the minimum liability of $30?

[michaelg]

The Ocho,

No, I'm laying them only if they are below D.S's price.

In the example we quoted where the TAB price was $4.50 and D.S's was $2.50 - it was not a lay bet. It would only have been if its S.P price was $2.50 or less. I won the $17.07 on No.2 because D.S's price was $4.40 yet its S.P price was $2.66 which is lower than D.S's price of $4.40 - fortunately it lost the race. I only mentioned the winner out of interest because it was an overlay with betting.

Looking at both days' results, there would have been a huge loss if the overlays were bet, but the opposite is true for laying the underlays which I did.

Yes, I have been laying them for the minimum of $30 on S.P.

[michaelg]

I should've realised that not everyone here is familiar with Laying, and mentioning what I did about the winner would be confusing.

Apologies - hope it is somewhat clearer now.

[Bhagwan]

Well done again Michael,

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, it still looks promising. Yesterday was another good day - a profit of $63.22.