heavy tracks

[gunny72]

I am having to deal with a spate of heavy tracks again. My method has been to eliminate all horses from my ratings where the handicapper's weight is greater than 55.5 kg as I have found this useful in the past, especially for Heavy 6+. It worked well for me in Brisbane last Sat (heavy 8). What do you think?

I feel that my approach is a bit heavy handed (sorry about the pun) and I would like to find stats that show the % of horses that win carrying greater than 55.5 kg on heavy tracks compared with good tracks.

gunny

[ixlat0]

gunny72 -- comparison of horses carrying > 55.5 kg on good and heavy tracks

the results don't look exciting

G -- N = 31513 SR 11.3% AR $7.27 POT -17.9%
H -- N = 5659 SR 12% AR $7.44 POT -10.6%

source: BetSelector Platinum Professional
filters: weight to carry -- min [56kg+] track condition [GH]
period: 1 jan 2011 - 30 sept 2011

there is NO potential to make a long term profit from either so your elimination rule has merit

[Vortech]

I use a system similar to this but use horses under a certain weight of the top weighted horse

[gunny72]

Great data ixlat0. Thanks.

I just think my ratings overrate horses with higher weights on heavy tracks and the higher rated with less weight seem to provide better value.
gunny

[gunny72]

Considering 55.5kg and under worked again today for my ratings in Brisbane (heavy 8) with Rundle at $17 but I did miss Pretty Pins $3.20. I also missed Eight Pieces $4.80 when the track was changed to a Slow7 and Jungle Heat became the selection and came second. I will take a look at kgs below the top weight.