Meadows Saturday Night

[woof43]

Interesting race. no doubt the #6 has a lot of ability, but it finds a lot of trouble. but with the #4 squashing the inside dogs at the start, it should create some good space for the outside dogs.
#2 has been suffered a lot of interference last two starts and has managed some very good 2nd sectionals just needs clear space early.
#5 form looks poor but has had no luck in running, looks likely to improve.
#8 form is poor, tailed off last start, only given 5 days vet cert. doesn't add up, but loves the #8 box will provide some real value in the exotics
#6,2,5,8
would love the #5 or #8 to get up, as the 2,3,6 will tie up a lot of $'s in the markets
Race 4
1 5.267
2 5.171
3 5.189
4 5.173
5 5.259
6 5.180
7 5.286
8 5.270
1st splits
split probabilities
Box 1st Split Rating Rank
1 $22.96 5
2 $3.99 2
3 $4.78 3
4 $3.66 1
5 $44.54 6
6 $5.22 4
7 $108.11 7
8 $200.00 8

[moeee]

RACE 8

7 ASTON ELLE $1.9
6 KREUZER ON FIRE $6.2
8 ARVO'S JOSIE $10
3 SOOKIE $14
2 SPECIAL DUTIES $16
5 GRANT BALE $30
1 DAYS OF STEAM $40
4 ARVO'S GOTCHA $50

[moeee]

In Race 10 there is an animal named BELKIN BALE.

What is your conclusion regarding the animals TRUE ODDS.
Obviously it is the best animal in the Race , but it can't be 10's on.
What decides what Odds it should be tonight?
Do you think its Starting Price will be an accurate assessment of its TRUE ODDS?

[moeee]

THE MEADOWS

RACE 3

5 DYNA KATE $3.3
7 AUTOAMERICAN $3.4
2 KARANJI $8.2
1 PROVEN MEAD $12.8
4 ALLEGRA'S SUNSET $13.6
9 LASTING EFFECT $15.6
3 RATTLING RUBIE $33.6
8 STENWICK $34.2



RACE 4

6 BLACK DODGE $3.7
3 SHAMUS O'JAR $3.8
7 MYSTERIOUS LOLA $8.0
2 MOLLY MOLLOY $8.8
8 WILD ARMS $11.5
4 SPIRITUAL ONE $17.3
5 PROVEN PUZZLE $17.6
1 ZLATAN $46.7



RACE 5

4 DYNA ERINA $3.1
1 EURICO BALE $3.9
5 DYNA DARA $4.7
6 FLIP BALE $16.8
8 DYNA DEARY $16.8
7 LAURIE VALENTINE $17.8
3 PROVEN CUE $66.2
2 BACK PAGE LEAD $80.4



RACE 6

1 EASY PEASY $2.4
8 STACK 'EM FLAT $3.4
7 PREMIER BOLONEY $11.5
4 KIALDU ANNA $15.6
2 BARRIQUE $17.1
5 STETSON LILY $36.9
6 BLACK VIKING $37.6
3 INDEED I DO $45.0



RACE 7

4 DAINTREE ROCKET $3.6
6 HAFREN BALE $5.8
7 TANIA TWO SHOES $6.8
8 RICH SHIRAZ $8.0
1 LE PIPPY $10.3
5 BOGGY SPITFIRE $10.6
3 GREYWINDS DAN $16.7
2 SMOKIN' GONZALES $36.0



RACE 8

2 REWIND $2.5
3 HUTMAKER $3.9
1 DYNA LOWELL $11.1
8 UP AND AWAY $11.1
4 SHINTARO SAMURAI $12.7
6 WARNING LABEL $27.5
7 AMERICAN MCGEE $35.5
5 RYKER BALE $50.7



RACE 9

7 BULLICOURT DYLAN $4.0
1 PILLOW TORQUE $4.6
2 SELECT BREAKER $6.5
5 BEES KNEES $8.4
4 SHOW ME HOW $10.4
3 PENSKI ILLUSION $13.8
6 TIMBO $17.9
8 MAGIC PENSKI $28.8



RACE 10

6 BEKIM BALE $1.3
3 BLACK HOMBRE $9.3
4 NUMERO UNO BALE $16.9
7 MARTILI BALE $34.3
5 WALTER BALE $125.0
1 AMADO $150.0
10 WHERE'S LUKE $800.0
2 DOC'S DISCIPLE $1,000.0



RACE 11

4 PROVEN MADDY $3.9
2 ENTICE ME JULIET $4.6
7 LEKTRA JOHNSON $6.0
5 KON TIKI $7.5
8 CHICAGO $9.8
3 LEKTRA BILLY $16.3
6 ALL INN BRADY $22.5
1 AUNTY CHOPPER $50.5

[woof43]

1 5.118
2 5.255
3 5.377
4 5.240
5 5.261
6 5.336
7 5.239
8 5.226
Split Probabilities
Box 1st Split Rating Rank
1 $3.52 1
2 $7.42 3
3 $4.97 2
4 $17.38 7
5 $10.71 5
6 $29.28 8
7 $13.16 6
8 $8.41 4
#1 looks to lead clearly, except it heads for the outside at box rise, then you have the #2,3,5,6,8 all wanting to head to the rails. So it needs to lead clearly to win, it's not an overly strong dog so any interference will take it's toll. #7 is drawn where it wants to be is a plus for it..
Back the #1 to win if you secure a nice price, then have a lot of dogs in flexi Tris' and F4 incase of interference and a longshot gets home

[woof43]

In Race 10 there is an animal named BELKIN BALE.

What is your conclusion regarding the animals TRUE ODDS.
Obviously it is the best animal in the Race , but it can't be 10's on.
What decides what Odds it should be tonight?
Do you think its Starting Price will be an accurate assessment of its TRUE ODDS?
yep I'll give you some figures later on in the night.

[woof43]

1 30.693
2 30.945
3 30.475
4 30.305
5 30.634
6 29.824
7 30.565
8 30.964
The #6 is a centre/wide runner which is normally the case for the best of the best. #7 wants the rails, but it doesn't really push hard to the rails.
Their not a fast beginning group in this race so the #6 lack of real early dash shouldn't be a worry.
Its price well just looking at it's win efficency, it's been an overlay up to date at the prices it's paid on the tote, just about say's it all

[moeee]

I'm having a very good run since I mentioned to you Woof43 about the Anomaly Nick thing you sent me.

Do you think my good fortune is due to the roller coaster ride of the way wins and losses occur , or do you think I have improved the accuracy of My Markets?

I really don't recall doing so well in the previous couple of years or so.
I'm still backing Losers , but The Voucher seems to be climbing steadily in the last week.

I have noticed a strange thing about Anomaly Nick , maybe the one what you suggested.
I could have an animal that is assessed at say $30 , but if one of its runs was just a tenth of a second slower , it can become no possible Chance of winning.

[moeee]

OUCH!!! :(

Need a good result in the last to repair Major Damage.

[woof43]

OUCH!!! :(

Need a good result in the last to repair Major Damage.

Never seen it so far out the back door, even past the 700 boxes I was thinking this dog is ********** and not showing anything.
Got home ok

[woof43]

I'm having a very good run since I mentioned to you Woof43 about the Anomaly Nick thing you sent me.

Do you think my good fortune is due to the roller coaster ride of the way wins and losses occur , or do you think I have improved the accuracy of My Markets?

I really don't recall doing so well in the previous couple of years or so.
I'm still backing Losers , but The Voucher seems to be climbing steadily in the last week.

I have noticed a strange thing about Anomaly Nick , maybe the one what you suggested.
I could have an animal that is assessed at say $30 , but if one of its runs was just a tenth of a second slower , it can become no possible Chance of winning.
I'd have to see how you have it set up, to have a good understanding.

Your wagering may have changed or you have them ranked better.
Good work anyway

[woof43]

OUCH!!! :(

Need a good result in the last to repair Major Damage.

The #4 has some really really good 2nd sectionals, but unknown on this track.

If you increased your wager for the win tsk tsk Moeee , you do need to compound your profits, but instead of more vertical wagers (win betting), go to a horizontal wagering (exotics) setup

[moeee]

Need a good result in the last to repair Major Damage.

Was fortunate the photo for second went my way allowing a good percentage of Trifecta to return most of the previous damage.

Hopefully I learnt something when handicapping Races with only one possible Winner.

I'm almost out of Internet download limit with still 2 more days to go , so I may not play the Forum for couple of days.

Goodnight Woof43.

[woof43]

Moeee
This is a very interesting race you should study this one could be a good result.
With a Fav #2 who fades when it raced the extra 10 metres at Geel. runs a bit wide too, now its over this longer distance.
#8 looks like it will pull back to get to the rails is the best dog in race but poorly drawn.
Leaves the #1 no form in vic over the sprints but plenty in QLD, loves the rails box. I think it will get a clean run and should figure at the finish

[moeee]

Good Luck with your assessment Woof43 , but I'm glad I done the Form before I read your summary
Or maybe not - depends on the result of course.

2 WHY NOT ROBBIE $2.6
8 ******** RIDER $4.9
5 YOU BEE $8.3
4 WHAT AN EFFORT $12
7 SIMPLY KIDDO $14
3 JEANIE'S WISH $16
6 LITTLE MR. DEANO $20
1 CELLAR DOOR $25

Just can't have your RED selection.
I really can't look at Form a hundred starts ago Woof43.
About that long ago , I used to parade around in nappies - things change.
Current Form is the BEST indicator , but I'll take a $2 saver just in case.

I don't know the animals at all so I'll reconsider My Market , bearing in mind your thoughts on the Bookends.

[moeee]

I'm having a very good run since I mentioned to you Woof43 about the Anomaly Nick thing you sent me.

Do you think my good fortune is due to the roller coaster ride of the way wins and losses occur , or do you think I have improved the accuracy of My Markets?


Well a Huge Crash all day Sunday pretty much answers the question.

Oh Well - It was fun while it lasted!