The 3333 System

[UselessBettor]

Something I was playing with and thought I would share from my website for testing your systems:

There were 24142 horse form lines in the database at this point in time.
There were 160 selections for the System
There were 100 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 62.5%
You had to pay out $129.81 but brought in $152 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $22.19 or a percentage profit/loss of 13.87%

I called this the 3333 system because the rules are as follows:

Win Price <= 3
TAB Number <= 3
Barrier <= 3
Place Strike Rate Rank <= 3
Bet Type = LAY

I encourage others to share the systems they find. If you post it as above then its easy to run a future test in a week, month, year when there is more data in the database and compare the results. You can then see if the system held up over time.

[partypooper]

I encourage others to share the systems they find. If you post it as above then its easy to run a future test in a week, month, year when there is more data in the database and compare the results. You can then see if the system held up over time. [QUOTE]

G'Day UB, I agree it would be great to share ideas to this extent, but the problem is there are some charlatans, i.e the dregs of society who also peruse these pages for any idea that MAY hold water, then package them with glitter advertise it in THEIR so called magazines, and sell the blue dy things to the mugs, sorry to use the word but mugs it is!

It has happened more than a few times.

[Bhagwan]

Heres a couple of Backing plans.

Don Scott = 1
TAB No. <= 2
Dist => 1800m

Result
35% SR
32% POT

-----------------------------------

Don Scott = 1
Barrier => 10

Result
25% SR
28% POT

[Bhagwan]

This will need more testing.
It looks too good.

Backing Plan

RULES
Price <= 5.00
TAB No. = 3 exactly .
Last Start = 5th exactly
Career wins => 1

Result
77% SR
30% POT

[Bhagwan]

This one looks very promising

RULES
Don Scott = 1
Place SR Ranking <= 2

Result
49% SR (839 winners from 1700 races)
41% POT

[aussielongboat]

This one looks very promising

RULES
Don Scott = 1
Place SR Ranking <= 2

Result
49% SR (839 winners from 1700 races)
41% POT

are they the only 2 filters??

[Bhagwan]

Yes they are.

The art to system creation, is to show a profit with as few rules as possible.

That's the hard bit.

That way they have a greater chance of repeating themselves down the line.


The more complicated the rules , the less likely it will repeat itself .
And that's the main reason why most systems fail.

[aussielongboat]

the reson i asked you is that these are then results i got from
http://testyoursystem.000space.com/TestSystem.php

and I quote:
Test your Horse Racing System - Results

Below are the results of your system. If you were testing Laying it is against the higher price available. if you test betting its agaisnt the lower available value on betfair.

There were 26286 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 964 selections for the System
There were 298 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 30.91%
There were $925.87 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-38.13 or a percentage profit/loss of -3.96%

Test Another System

---------
that why i asked.
they are much different to what you have said.

cheers

aussie.

[bernie]

aussielongboat, I have found similar results from Bhagwan's system test results. I followed the system you were enquiring about throughout the day on paper. I got nothing like the results Bhagwan presented. In fact the result was well into the negative.

Bernie

[aussielongboat]

This will need more testing.
It looks too good.

Backing Plan

RULES
Price <= 5.00
TAB No. = 3 exactly .
Last Start = 5th exactly
Career wins => 1

Result
77% SR
30% POT

when you start saying things like "tab = 3" and "last start =5" - IMHO you are just back fitting a lucky set of numbers which may never be repeated.
you may as well say
and " only barrier = 7, 10 and 11" or
"Richard Callender has 4 smokes between races 3 and 4"

as I read somewhere-
"The more complicated the rules , the less likely it will repeat itself ."
LOL

just my opinion.
good luck

Aussie.

[lomaca]

when you start saying things like "tab = 3" and "last start =5" - IMHO you are just back fitting a lucky set of numbers which may never be repeated.
you may as well say
and " only barrier = 7, 10 and 11" or
"Richard Callender has 4 smokes between races 3 and 4"
just my opinion.
good luck

Aussie.Too right mate, here is a simple "system", bet on No 7 when between $4 and $8 and it's a winner!

Well it was in the backfitted world, but in the future and real world?
Your guess is as good as mine, I wouldn't follow it.

Class horse in a rubbish race is the go! And they don't have to be Black caviar class either, it's all relative!

Good luck

[Bhagwan]

Yes, they are all good points .

I must have stuffed something up there.

Revised RULES
Win Prc <= 9.80
Last start <= 3rd
Don Scott = 1
Place Ranking <= 2
Days Last start <= 7

46.5% SR
33.60 % POT

[aussielongboat]

Yes, they are all good points .

I must have stuffed something up there.

Revised RULES
Win Prc <= 9.80
Last start <= 3rd
Don Scott = 1
Place Ranking <= 2
Days Last start <= 7

46.5% SR
33.60 % POT

actually you can drop the SP filter and get this:
Test your Horse Racing System - Results

Below are the results of your system. If you were testing Laying it is against the higher price available. if you test betting its agaisnt the lower available value on betfair.

There were 26612 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 45 selections for the System
There were 20 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 44.44%
There were $57.45 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $12.45 or a percentage profit/loss of 27.67%
-------
i dislike price filters because in the real world they can be a real pain - what i mean is who wants to sit there all day waiting for something to go from 9.9 to 9.80 for example and then the other question is what tote do you take etc.
i find life much easier when i leave them out.

[Stix]

Sorry, if it's been asked before....What is the length of time the database covers UB? years, year, 6mths, less?

Thanks!

[aussielongboat]

Sorry, if it's been asked before....What is the length of time the database covers UB? years, year, 6mths, less?

Thanks!
i think i read from august 2011.

one of the very early posts

[UselessBettor]

i think i read from august 2011.

one of the very early posts
Yep Its early August (6th August) 2011. Doesn't cover enough I know but that is when I started collecting the data so a few months results are better then nothing.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks once again UB for starting that data base.

It definitely adds interest to this site.

[Bhagwan]

This is a Backing plan

RULES
Days Last start <=7
UniTAB Ranking <=5
Field Size <=10

Result
21% SR
26% POT

[UselessBettor]

Something I was playing with and thought I would share from my website for testing your systems:

There were 24142 horse form lines in the database at this point in time.
There were 160 selections for the System
There were 100 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 62.5%
You had to pay out $129.81 but brought in $152 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $22.19 or a percentage profit/loss of 13.87%

I called this the 3333 system because the rules are as follows:

Win Price <= 3
TAB Number <= 3
Barrier <= 3
Place Strike Rate Rank <= 3
Bet Type = LAY

I encourage others to share the systems they find. If you post it as above then its easy to run a future test in a week, month, year when there is more data in the database and compare the results. You can then see if the system held up over time.
This system continues to show promise. 46 selections with a 5% profit.

There were 206 selections for the System
There were 126 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 61.17%
You had to pay out $171.63 but brought in $195.7 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $24.07 or a percentage profit/loss of 11.68%