Unbelievable

[collingwood]

Can't believe some of the results tonight following a system using the Sportsman:

Use horse's actual weight and compare it to the Sportsman weight ratings. Top 3 horses with the best difference in their favour(more than 3 horses if share a numerical difference) seem to have a good strike rate. Tonights results include -

M2 Selections 2&10-8 (winner 10 $5.60)
M3 -4-1-11 (winner 11 $12.80)
M4 - 7-8-3 ( winner 3 $3.70)
M6 - 1-14-13&3 (winner 13 $61.30!!!)
M7 -7-4-3 (winner $8.80)

S1 - 4-1-9 (winner 1 $2.20)
S2- 2-9-11-12 (winner 2 $15.40!!)
S4- 9-8-6-5 (winner 9 $7.00)
S6- 9-6-2 (winner 9 $12.70)
S7 - 5-7-10 (winner 10 $21.30!!)

Has anyone noticed this before. What do people think? Is tonight just a fluke? If you have a Sportsman handy have a look - unbelievable.

cheers
Collingwood

[collingwood]

Am i the only one that thinks this was amazing. The system found $60, $20 $15, 2x$12 and $7 winners.

For those that have a lot more experience than me is this not a good result? Its seems a simple system. Would love some feedback on whether people think this may have some legs or too simple to make a profit long term.

cheers

[shy]

Don't worry Collingwood... everyone is out checking their Sportsman :smile:. Perhaps you could post selections here and see what the dreaded jinx will do to it.

[becareful]

Collingwood,

I agree those results are great - my main concern is that Thursday night racing often throws up some very weird results. Would be very interested in seeing the results for the Saturday metro meetings. Do you have back copies of the sportsman to see how it would have gone the last few weeks? I don't normally buy Sportsman so can't check myself.

[collingwood]

Thanks Shy and Becareful.
Unfortunately i haven't kept copies of the Sportsman to investigate results of last few weeks. Maybe someone out there has. Thought with some time to myself last night (wife out with the girls) i would follow the system a little closer. Will follow Shy's lead and purchase a Sportsman after work and post the qualifiers for Sat later this evening.

cheers

[Luckyboy]

Hi Collingwood,

I have been using a system involving Sportsman's Zipform and allocated weights for about the past six months. Results to date have been overall good, but there have been some dramatic win/loss days.

In essence, it's a bit 'spikey'.

Over this time I have fine-tuned the system around races where:

1. The top weight is carrying 57kg or above;
2. Only looking at horses within 3kg of the top weight;
3. Selecting horses with a Zipform rating 55 and above;
4. Selecting horses running 1st or 2nd or within 1.5 lengths last start.

I have a couple of other filters involving barrier and pace. But to date they have not given me any real direction.

Hope this gives you some further thinking material.

All the Best.
Luckyboy

[collingwood]

Luckyboy thanks for the filters. Will keep them in mind. I have noticed that the Sat races seem to have horses that are closer in rating value than on Thursday night - especially in Melb.

Ratings for Sat(in case of scratchings i have put the next rater in brackets):

M1 - 2&5-1 (4&7 equal)
M2 - 3-2&5 (6)
M3 - 2-1-3&6
M4 - 1-3
M5 - 5&6-12(10&11&13 equal)
M6 - 7-6-8&10
M7 - 13-10-4&9&11
M8 - 10-2-8(4&5 equal)
M9 - 8-3-6 (2&7 equal)

S1 - 10-3-5 (4)
S2 - 8-4-3 (5)
S3 - 10-11-4 (2&7 equal)
S4 - 11-3-5 (6)
S5 - 8-3-9 (1)
S6 - 11-2-13&14
S7 - 3-2-10 (4)
S8 - 5-7&13 (1)
S9 - 11-5&6 (7)
cheers

[Twodogs]

Interesting filters Luckboy. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.Would you mind me adding them to a thread I started on filters?

Cheers
Twodogs

Hi, some conditions I've used for this selection method. only work on melbourne.
zip value - horses wgt
1) only note horses with a positive value
2) circle the highest value for each race. If more than one circle them all
3) highlite the horse if it has won/placed on the current track conditions or up and down. eg slow then dead/slow/heavy. for heavy only consider slow/heavy.
4) select the horses which are circled and highlited.

today in melbourne
MR2 #3 -
MR3 #2 3rd
MR4 #1 1st $1.60
MR6 #7 3rd
MR7 #13 1st $10.80
MR8 #10 -

bets = $6 for a return $12.40 = $6.40 profit

You can go for the top 3 if all qualify for each race.
today $15 bet return $28.40 profit $13.40
on wet tracks the returns are often much better so the top 3 could be used. On good tracks the winning odds do not support more than one qualifying selection per race.

Check it out for yourself if eachway betting would be as profitable.

on another topic, Northerly and Lonhro look set to dominate the autumn feature races. And "Roedean" beat the Sportsman front cover jink to win the Blue diamond.

Good punting, Horse cents

[collingwood]

Hi all.
A lot to think about with the suggested filters. Horse cents your filters in Melb turned a profit whereas a 'filterless' approach showed a small loss for the day in Melb but a small profit in Sydney.
Lazyboy did not have time to apply your filters prior to the races and left my Sportsman at the races so can't do it retrospectively. Hope you can shed some light on your results.

For the sake of investigation i have analysed todays results by backing 3 qualified horses per race (on average)without taking into account value - so results are a worst case senario.

With no filters and backing top 3 selections per race (scratchings replaced by reserves)came up with the following results today:

M3/ #3 win $4.00
M4/ #1 win $1.50
M5/ #12 win $5.90
M7/ #13 win $10.80

Outlay $27
Collect $22.20
POT -$4.8

S1/ #4 win $11.30
S4/ #6 win $4.20
S6/ #14 win $10.60
S7/ #2 win $1.40
S9/ #5 win $3.60

Outlay $28 (S6/#14 was equal 3rd qualifier)
Collect $31.10
POT $3.10

I personally think there is something there- just need to apply the appropriate filters (are any required??)without missing out on the longer priced winners. Not sure whether rain affected tracks helped the system or not. Will follow tomorrow at Canterbury (have to buy another Sportsman!!!)

Cheers

[collingwood]

Once again a profit on the Sportsman system tonight.
M1/3 - $2.30
M2/5 - $19.80
M4/2 - $2.50
M5/7 - $4.40
M6/ - $6.80

By taking the top 3 qualifiers in each race no filters - outlay 21 units
collect 35.8 units
POT 14.8 units

Becareful, i know this was another night meeting but that makes it 4 meetings assessed(2 metro, 2 night)for 3 profitable meetings and a small loss.

I'll post tomorrows results if people are interested.

cheers

hi collingwood,

for today at caulfield we had another good day. For my preference for top positive value only (zip - wgt) and track conditions we had.
MR1 6 FRENCH ELLE -
MR2 6 SUBSCRIBE $8.80
MR3 1 NORTHERLY 2nd to the BOTTOM RATER
MR4 3 NATURAL BLITZ $7.00
MR5 12 INNOVATION GIRL 2nd to 2nd rater YELL
MR6 4 SUPER ELEGANT $12.30
MR7 12 OLD MAN 3rd
MR8 12 VIOLENT TINTS deadheat for 2nd

all up bets $8 for a return $28.10 = $20.10 profit. (QLDTAB)

Edit

MR6 5 PURPLE GROOVE - I made a mistake on my notes and selected Super Elegant, thankfully it won. But the correct figures for today is a profit of $7.80

end of edit

For the top 3 raters only Yell would of been picked in addition so profit would of been around the $5 mark


Good punting,
Horse Cents

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: horse cents on 2003-03-01 21:52 ]</font>

[collingwood]

Hi Horse Cents

Today i followed both your method as well as the top 3 method. Super Elegant ($12.20) & Yell($4.20) were picked up in addition to your method by taking the top 3.

Sydney wasn't good with only 2 winners. That makes 5 meetings assessed for 3 profits. Melbourne = 3 meetings assessed for two profitable meetings

cheers