MichealG/Ocho Hybrid System Test

[UselessBettor]

I am going to run a quick test for today to see how this goes. These are a hybrid of michaelg's/Ochos system with a few tweaks and new rules (and some rules missing). Both systems are laying systems.

The only rules to be applied at race time for these selections are that

System 1:
Must start Favourite on both lay and bet side of betfair.
Must be 9 runners after scratchings.

System 2:
Must start Favourite on both lay and bet side of betfair.

I'll use my program to record the prices at 10 secs from jump.
No money will be harmed during this test period.

Selections Attached in txt format.

I also noted that Black caviar is a lay for System 2. It is included for completness of records. I do not recommend laying black caviar as the only way it will lose is if it breaks a leg while running and still even if it does that it will probably win. I noted one big punter had 100K on it at $1.07. Its already traded 554,075 on betfair at 10:20am. If there was ever a dead set certainity to win a race it is this one. 99% chance in my opinion meaning anything $1.02 or higher is value.

[The Ocho]

Hi UB. I'm not sure I understand how it is a hybrid system of michaelg's (and I have nothing much to do with it anyway except trying to find something that may actually work consistently).

It appears you are just laying every fave and when I look at the attachment there are more than one selection per race. So I'm not sure what's going on. But I hope it works. :)

[michaelg]

Good luck, U.B.

Aren't there any filters?

Do you have any results from past races?

[UselessBettor]

Ocho,

It needs to be a seleciton and also the fav. The rules are loosly based on the rules for Michaelgs lay the fav system.

Michaelg,

Overall profit is around 25% ona 26% strike rate.

[Mark]

I also noted that Black caviar is a lay for System 2. It is included for completness of records. I do not recommend laying black caviar as the only way it will lose is if it breaks a leg while running and still even if it does that it will probably win. I noted one big punter had 100K on it at $1.07. Its already traded 554,075 on betfair at 10:20am. If there was ever a dead set certainity to win a race it is this one. 99% chance in my opinion meaning anything $1.02 or higher is value.

Whilst I don't believe that anything is ever "over the line", the $1.04 to back for the place compared to $1.06 for the win I thought was over the odds. I had $10000 on and have laid $10100 @ 1.03.......an easy $95 jumps in.

[UselessBettor]

Whilst I don't believe that anything is ever "over the line", the $1.04 to back for the place compared to $1.06 for the win I thought was over the odds. I had $10000 on and have laid $10100 @ 1.03.......an easy $95 jumps in.
Very nice arb.

[Chrome Prince]

It's a funny thing, I've actually been looking at how under the true odds the horse has been regardless of it winning or losing.

Is a certainty really a $1.04 chance?
A certainty should be a $1.01 chance.
But seeing as nothing is certain, surely in this case $1.10 should be the minimum fair price, especially when you pay commission on winnings.

If she runs to her best she wins as she has today.
But what if something happened just prior to being loaded into the barriers, or in the barriers, or upon release, or another horse breaks down running sideways.

These things happen more often than 1 in a thousand.

What if she gets a stitch, throws a plate, the girth snaps, she shys at seagulls, my point is anything can happen to the horse or the environment and I think $1.04 is ridiculous.

But then again I've seen UK horses trade at $1.04 with a hurdle to jump.

It's fantastic for racing to see her win today, but she's totally unbackable unless you do what Mark did which is the only way to get value out of her.