BetFair operating on our races!

[becareful]

Not sure if this is old news to everyone but Betfair is now taking bets on the major metro meetings in Australia. You can even operate your account in Aussie dollars so there are no currency conversion issues to worry about.

I had a bit of a play on a couple of races last night - in one of them the worst I could have done was a 5% profit (backing a horse and then laying it back a minute later) - as it turned out I made 10% profit with practically no risk at all.

There is a link on the tipping competition website http://www.tlcbc.com.au/tipping.htm to a page I am doing which will have tips on using Betfair.



_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-02-21 17:39 ]</font>

[Tony]

It's a revolution alright, becareful.
Interesting to know how its going to develop, wrt both attempted Goverment intervention and the behaviour of the exchange as more and more amateur bookies start getting in on the action.
Very interesting indeed.

[Chrome Prince]

Very interesting to see how this all pans out.
TwoFlys has also emerged as a lesser contender and I think that Betfair has a much better reputation.
Also anyone using twoflys, be very sure you read the fine print about money withdrawal and turnover of deposits etc.
It is important to know exactly what you' re allowed and not allowed to do.

The downside of these organisations is that a trainer, jockey, stablehand, owner etc - can invoke the services of a friend or relative to substantially "lay" a runner, which they know it has no chance of winning or is in poor condition etc.

The extremely positive upside however, is the scenario that becareful has just described, where you bet a selection either on betfair or IAS and lay it back giving you absolutley no risk.
These indeed may be more common than not and an opportunity to make some serious money, similar to takeover bids on the stockmarket when he stock trades at below the takeover bid for one reason or another.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-02-21 18:34 ]</font>

[Debug]

To anyone who has used Betfair.
Is the 5% commission based on your profit or the amount of return?

eg. If you bet $10 on a $5 runner the return is $50. Is the 5% commission on the $50 return or the $40 profit.

The Betfair help talks about returns and profits and commisions on winnings.

Thanks.

[becareful]

Debug,

The commission (5% initially but you can qualify for lower rates based on your weekly turnover) is charged on your NET PROFIT for each race only. So if you won $40 on one runner but lost $10 on another IN THE SAME RACE (ie. you backed 2 at $10/each) then you pay 5% of your $30 net profit. On that race last night where I bet on a runner and then layed it off I only paid the commission on the profit I made (so for every $10 I originally bet I made a $1 profit so ended up with $0.95 after comission).

[Mark]

Becareful
I haven't looked at the Betfair site yet, but from what you are saying we can now lay horses as well as back them, is this right??, if so....you ****** beauty.. Did you back something and then lay it shorter?, good for you if you did !!

:grin: :grin: :grin:

[becareful]

Mark,

Yes I backed a horse and then layed it back at a shorter price. I did it again this morning on Race 2 Randwick - Ears Ronny backed at $3.55 and layed at $3.40, also Hollow backed at $6 and layed at $5. Also layed a runner on Betfair and backed it on IAS for guaranteed profit (only problem here is you pay more commission than if you can back and lay both bets on Betfair).

Nothing like the feeling of winning regardless of which runner is first over the line :smile: Now I know how you feel with your system!

[Debug]

becareful,
Thanks for that info.

I guess the trick with betting and laying off is to know which runners are going to drop in price.

I have been trying dutching with Betfair prices. It has a greater potetial and opens up more options than using the starting price odds of TAB's.

[Mark]

Just thought I'd take a look at Betfair re English football. Current odds for West Ham v West Brom are quite incredible. WBA $2.80, WH $2.80 & Draw $3.45. for those who don't know their % I suggest you learn them quickly. This event is currently at 100.4%, whereas the TABs and other betting outlets you could probably juggle & get on at 110%. This is amazing & how long before the Govt tries to ban it or puts their own tax on it.

[Reenster]

Hi all,

Can someone explain how laying works (no birds and bees lessons please)? If you back a horse for say $100 at 5/1 and it wins, you win $600 (including stake). How is the risk offset by laying it at 4/1? I guess I just don't understand the concept of laying (no birds and bees lessons please) and need it explained in layman's terms, so to speak.

By the way, I noticed Northerly was available to back at $2.04 on Betfair. Even with the 5% commission that equates to $1.94, much better than the $1.80 official top fluc. Bookies be warned and TABs don't stand a chance.

Cheers

[becareful]

Reinster,

When you "lay" the horse you are accepting someone else's bet at the given odds (so if it loses you keep their money - if it wins you have to pay them out at the specified odds). Using your example lets say you put $100 on a horse at $6.00 (5/1) - as you say if it wins you will collect $600 for a profit of $500 - but if it loses you lose your $100. If the odds then shorten in to $5.00 (4/1) you could lay it at that price and accept $120 in bets - if the horse wins you have to pay out $120 x $5 = $600 so you have broken even - if it loses then you have made $20 (the $120 you accepted less the $100 you bet).

Of course you can also lay it for slightly less - if you accept $117 at $5.00 then if it loses you make $17 and if it wins you make $15 (as you only have to pay out $585 but you have won $600). This is what I was doing on Saturday and generally making 5%-15% profit whichever horse won.

If you place both bets on Betfair then you only pay the commission on your profit - in the above example you would pay the 5% on the $15 or $17 profit, not on the $117 or $500 amounts.

When I get a chance (probably tomorrow or Wednesday) I will put some more details on this topic up on my website, including examples of the bets I placed on the weekend.
_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-02-24 10:29 ]</font>

[becareful]

Another good thing about Betfair is it gives new life to all those old systems that worked well for a few weeks and then fell in a bottomless pit! Any system that shows a huge loss could suddenly become a goldmine as you can "lay" the system selections and as long as they lose you will win :smile:

Luckly Lil's "Lay of the Day" tip could be of much greater interest to me now!

Anyone got any systems out there making a 50% loss or more (particularly those that select shorter priced horses that lose)?

_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-02-24 10:27 ]</font>

[Reenster]

Great explanation BC, thanks. Right, so the Betfair website is set out with a line of prices, eg. (and I hope this formats okay).

Back Back Back Lay Lay Lay.

$4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9.

$245 $576 $388 $122 $23 $15.

I back the horse at $6 and I want to have $100 on it but does that mean I can't because there's only $388 in the pool?

Similarly if I want to lay the horse at $7 does it mean I can only lay it for $122 divided by $7 (about $17) because if it wins, I have to pay out $122, or do I lay it for the full $122 knowing if the horse wins, I have to pay $122 x $7?

[becareful]

Reenster,

The dollar figures shown below the prices are the amount that is currently on offer (or being requested) at the given price. In the example you gave the $388 @ $6 means that someone is willing to accept up to $388 at that $6.00 price so you can bet up to that amount (so the figure given is the amount you can bet - not how much will be won). The good thing about Betfair is you can place a bet for a lesser or greater amount than what is on offer (I think Twoflys limits you to accepting specific bets - eg. if someone offers $50 on TwoFlys you either bet the full $50 or nothing - you cant take just $10 of it - I could be wrong however as I have not actually used TwoFlys). If you bet less than the amount on offer then your bet is "fully matched" and the amount on offer is decreased by that amount. If you want to bet more then the system will match what is available and then place an "order" for the remainder.

In your example if you bet $100 @ 6.00 then you would get your bet and the system would update to show $288 still available at $6.00. If you bet $500 @ $6.00 then the system would match the $388 currently available and the remining $112 would appear on the "lay" side at $6.00 showing that you are willing to accept up to $112 in bets at that $6.00 price.

The Lay side of things works the same way - the dollar value is the amount that people are wanting to bet at the specified price and you can match some, all or more than the specified amount (so to answer your question if you accepted the $122 at $7 lay then you would be liable to pay $122 x $7 if the horse won). If you are willing to accept more than the $122 again you can enter that and the system will match the $122 amount and display the remainder on the "bet" side showing that you are willing to take bets at the $7 price.

It can be a bit confusing at first so I suggest you start with a few small bets to get the hang of it. I made one mistake when I started and accidentally "layed" a selection at $7 instead of backing it - fortuately I was able to back it at the same price so I didn't lose any money. Once you get the hang of it though it is quite easy.

[Tony]

The arb. win either way method is great if you can manage it but you still have to guess which way a horses odds are going to go before your initial move. Can get an idea from IAS odds for eg. but if things don't go as expected you may be forced to close out the "trade" with a potential loss on one side. Also requires a large account dt marginal, albeit certain return if things do pan out.
The big attraction for most I think is just the ability to lay horses, this being obviously a heck of a lot easier than backing them.
As backing all favourites at SP gives an 18% lot, and as bookies have long proven, there is a fair bit going for laying favs.
The interesting thing is how far the stampede to the sell side is going to erode this losing margin creating other opportunities. It is hard to predict, for my dull mind anyway, how such a seismic shift in betting arrangements is going to eventually impact on markets and betting behaviour overall.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Tony on 2003-02-25 12:40 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Tony on 2003-02-25 12:43 ]</font>

[Rogan Josh]

As much as I like the idea of BETFAIR, isn’t our money going oversees?

Money traded on BETFAIR is money (percentage) not being fed back into the racing, pacing & chasing industry.

In the long run won't BETFAIR have a detrimental effect on the state of racing in Australia?

[Chrome Prince]

Very good point Rogan Josh!

All money that is won or lost or traded on Betfair does nothing to support racing in Australia as far as I am aware.

It's really the regulation of the TAB's and bookies which is at fault here. If the market percentages weren't so excessive (greedy) then many punters would not flock to more viable markets so readily.

TABCORP et al - pull your socks up!

[becareful]

Rogan Josh,

You sound like an advertisement on Sky :smile:

Seriously though the problem, as Chrome Prince points out, is that the TAB take is so high that it makes it quite hard to make a long term profit betting on the TAB (and the bookies aren't much better - in fact sometimes they take an even higher %). Also despite what the ads on Sky imply the TAB take is not all going to support the industry! For every dollar you bet on the TAB between 15 and 20 cents is retained - that is then split into 3 roughly equal portions. One third goes to government in tax, one third to TAB and the last third to the "industry". My desire to support the industry is outweighed by my desire not to pay any more tax than I have to!

As to the overseas thing if the Australian government hadn't been so stupid as to completly stop all development of Australian based internet gambling a few years ago it is quite likely that we would have had several Australian based competitors to Betfair by now.

Of course if you can make a profit on Betfair then a reasonable portion of that money you are winning is probably coming from punters in other countries - so you are helping the trade deficit :smile:

As much as I like to support Australian industries, etc, I am afraid I have to look after my money first - if I can make a lot more money by betting with Betfair then I am going to go with that. When I make my first million I will donate 10% to the "industry"!

_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-02-25 11:18 ]</font>

[becareful]

Tony,

There were several situations on the weekend when it was extremely obvious which way the odds would move. For example that $6 one I mentioned - when I backed it at $6 it was showing around $3 on all TABs and on IAS. Although it did drift out on the TAB there was no way it was ever going to drift to $6 so the Betfair price inevitably came down and I had no trouble laying it at $5 (I was being super-cautious, if I had waited until just prior to the jump I could have layed it at $4.50 or so). However I agree that you would probably not be able to make enough doing this alone as the margins are fairly slim (although you may if they start covering more meetings and as the turnover increases) - but if you are going to be online placing your normal bets anyway then it is just icing on the cake.

The bigger opportunites are probably in laying certain horses and in taking the far better than TAB/Bookie odds on others. For example you could easily get around the $2.00 mark for Northerly on Saturday which is way better than the TAB and Top Fluct. prices.

[Mark]

Becareful
A couple of questions. Have you tried to withdraw any of your winnings, & what do they mean by "your total withdrawal on each registered card must be equal to or greater than your total deposits before you can withdraw additional winnings"? Does this mean if you deposit $1000, that you cannot withdraw any $ until your a/c hits at least $2000, or you must withdraw at least $1000, or to make a withdrawal you must empty your a/c & make another deposit before betting again?
I used to work in a govt dept & know that they have to cover themselves by quoting gobbledegook, it just seems a little ambiguous to me.
Thanks
Mark

[becareful]

Mark,

No I haven't made a withdrawal yet - maybe after this weekend :smile:

The way I interpreted that statement is that if you have deposited $1000 on your VISA card then any withdrawals up to the first $1000 will be paid back to your VISA card before they will send you cheque/direct deposit - this is a common requirement (as it reduces the commission they have to pay the credit card company). So if you withdrew $500 that would all go back to your VISA card, if you then wanted to withdraw another $700 then the first $500 would go back to the credit card (so that the $1000 deposit has been completely "refunded") and the remaining $200 would be sent by cheque/direct deposit.

[Rogan Josh]

On 2003-02-25 11:16, becareful wrote:
Rogan Josh,

You sound like an advertisement on Sky


Interesting comment becareful, coming from someone with a link to Betfair on his website :wink:

I’ve actually been avoiding Sky of late, what with all that V Bet crap.

[red]

Mark,
had the same bit of confusion so I emailed them, the response was clear.....

my question...........

"Hello,
about withdrawing funds. If I deposit via Bank Transfer from my bank account
to yours for say $1000 AUD. If in 1 month my account is say $5000 AUD can
I organise the withdrawal and transfer back to my bank account of the whole
$5000?
Your explanation of withdrawal is too brief for an important transaction."


and the response............


"Thank you for your e-mail

You are totally correct in the presumption that if you deposited $1000 AUD you can withdraw $5000 AUD. There is no limit on how much you want to deposit and withdrawal with Bank Transfers. Problems would only occur if you use a VISA or Mastercard to make withdrawals as they do not allow you to withdraw more than you deposit.

If you need a further explanation please do not hesitate to contact us.

Kind regards,

Taf Pilgrim

Betfair Helpdesk
info@betfair.com"

[Mark]

Thanks guys. One more question, what's the timeframe between depositing & receiving notice that your a/c is up & running?. Sorry 2 questions. If the back column shows $3 & the lay column shows $3.50, & you choose to lay, who is getting the $3.50?

[becareful]

Mark,

I deposited by Credit Card and the account was open instantly. Not sure about other deposit methods.

If the lay column showed $3.50 and you chose to accept that then you are giving the other person those odds and accepting their money - eg. if you accepted $100 at $3.50 then you get $100 (less the relevant commission) if the horse loses but you have to pay them $250 if the horse wins (this will show as your liability).

[michaelg]

Hi, becareful.
I'm not too familiar with Betting Exchanges, so could you be kind enough to answer my questions?

From reading your postings I am under the impression that if someone backs a horse at a certain price and then lays it at 6% below the "backing" price, then you are guaranteed a 1% profit after Betfair takes their 5%? If so, should this be a guideline for those of us with no Betting Exchange knowledge?

One can currently back New Zealand to win the Cricket World Cup on Betfair at $13 while on Twoflys they are at $8.10. I assume N.Z could be backed to win on Betfair and then laid on Twoflys (even at $12)for a guaranteed profit?

Thanks.
Michael

[Mark]

Yes, I understand that but if you want to back the same horse, if on the back side it's showing $3.00, how do you get the $3.50, obviously somebody is getting it. Apart from that I'm back in the bookie business from Saturday. Did you notice if they listed Brisbane or Adelaide races last week?

:smile:

[becareful]

Mark,

If the highest price showing on the bet side is $3.00 then you can request a higher value by clicking on the bet side and entering the price and volume you want. Eg If you wanted to try to get say $3.40 for $100 then you would enter those values - your bet would appear as an unmatched bet on the Lay side of the screen (indicating you want someone to lay the horse at $3.40 to match your bet).

They only covered Sydney and Melbourne last Saturday so dont know when or if they will be expanding to the other states.


MichaelG,

If you are backing and laying both bets on Betfair then the commission is only charged on your profit - so if you back for a given price and lay it at even 1% less you will make a small profit. If you are backing with another bookie/exchange and laying on Betfair (or vice-versa) then you will need at least a 5% difference to make a profit. In your example yes you could make a profit by backing on Betfair and laying on Twoflys (provided you can get both bets on before the prices change - this is your only risk).

As an example last night I was checking some tennis prices and happened to notice that one market was only 99.6% with around $500 available to back on one player and several thousand on the other. In one minute with no risk I had made around $10 regardless of which player won the match.

[Tony]

Confused me too, Mark, it seems a-about the way they put the odds up. Must be a pommie thing, like Ritchie saying it's 222/2 at Lord's.
Reiterating becareful, there is no 3.50 on offer in your example, that is just the current low price a bettor is prepared to accept and 3.00 is the highest price a layer is prepared to lay.
There is a standoff till one meets the other at one end or somewhere in-between.
Once you get on and start pressing the buttons you soon get their drift.

[Mark]

Becareful
Thanks mate, a gentleman as always.

[Paddy]

Ah! I see the light becareful :wink:

Betfair are running a promotion that whoever can get the most Aussie referals to Betfair win a prize of AUS$1300, so by joining up thru a link from a particular website it puts that website in the running for the prize. :cool:

[becareful]

Paddy,

Yes I do get a commission if people join betfair through my website - but I don't think I would ever be in the running for the prize you mention - my website isn't that popular! Given the amount of time I have put into running the tipping competition with no compensation I didn't think it was unreasonable to try to get a little bit back through referrals - I doubt whether it will ever amount to more than a few dollars per hour for the time I have spent :smile:

I only put banners on my website if it is a product I use myself and think is worth recommending to others - having used Betfair I believe that it offers a huge advantage to punters over the traditional TAB and Bookie offerings we currently have here - I would say at least 50% of my Saturday turnover will be through them from now on with the TAB/IAS used for the meetings they don't cover or when the price is better.

[Rogan Josh]

becareful,

You sound like an advertisement on BETFAIR :smile:

[Mark]

Becareful
If you don't mind me asking, which credit card did you use to open your a/c. I tried with a Citibank Visa, it was declined. When I rang the bank they said that they were not allowed to trasfer funds to merchants that appear to be pornographic or gambling sites. Sounds like the govt is wielding the big stick already. After all it is my money!

[becareful]

Mark,

It was an ANZ Visa card. Actually ANZ called me about 15 minutes after I put the transaction through to confirm that I had authorised it but it was approved with no problems.

It seems very "big brotherish" for the bank to tell you who you can and cannot do business with! Fair enough to give people the option to block their card being used for gambling transactions if they want to protect themselves but to apply a ban to all cardholders without exception seems ridiculous.

[Mark]

I rang Betfair just now, they suggested Electronic Bank Transfer & said that should be in my a/c within 24 hours. Really pushing it to be ready for Saturday.

[becareful]

Mark,

Betfair is covering Eagle Farm tomorrow as well as Caulfield and Rosehill. I suspect Adelaide may not be too far away! They also covered Mooney Valley tonight but given the general quality of the fields I gave that a miss! Good luck if you have a go at being the bookie for a change!


Paddy,
Just checked that $1300 prize you mentioned and I am not eligible to win it - that only applies if you personally refer people via email not if you have an advertisement on your website.

[Paddy]

Thanks for the update becareful. I think you might be referring to the 'refer a friend' program.

But hey, go for it :wink: let's hope we can help build up on those $20 introductory kickbacks. Better in your pocket than theirs.

[Chrome Prince]

Betfair is the greatest thing to happen to Australian punters in the last millenium.

Why?

Because I have just had a large number of bets that I simply cannot lose on.

I have laid some favourites at short prices and backed them for subsanially longer prices.

Get in while you can because the odds will surely come into line as more people get wind of this and start using the service regularly.

When could you ever have a bet and be assured of making money win lose or draw!!!

:smile:

[Mark]

Alas, my a/c was not up & running for today. I have been a regular racegoer for around 25 years (showing my age there) but I fear I may have been to my last race meeting. I sat in front of the computer today, back & forth between IAS & Betfair, recording dummy bets, (laying of course)& have never seen better value. You could have easily layed Northerly today at $1.25 & within 5 minutes freely backed it back at $1.33, that sort of value is too good to pass up. About 20 years ago I read an article in Racetrack Magazine about racing in the future. It stated that not only would there be night racing, but, there would be nobody at the track, as all the punters would be at their personal computers betting between each other. At the time I scoffed at the thought of not being at the track, however the future is now here. My real concern now is what measures our mealy mouthed politicians will take to ruin this betting revolution.
:???:

[becareful]

Mark,

Shame you weren't able to get the account ready for yesterday - but there is always next week! :wink:

Even for those just wanting to back horses Betfair provides some enormous value - yesterday I was only home for the first few races but I managed to get some great prices:

MR1 Tarcoola Diamond - backed at ave $3.16 (2.20 on TAB, 2.70 Top Fluct)
SR1 Grand City - backed at $4.43 (3.00 TAB, 3.30 TF)

For those wondering how I got 4.43 for Grand City I backed it for significantly more than I wanted at 3.85 then layed the unwanted portion of the bet 10 minutes later for $3.50 which means that my effective return on the portion I kept was $4.43.

I also layed a couple of losers - it is kind of fun watching a race and knowing 9 out of the 10 runners will be winners for you - particularly when the one you have layed is running near last!

Also had a couple of "surebets" where I backed and layed the same runner so I won no matter what the outcome.

I think the future has definitely arrived for the serious punters - although I am sure the mugs will keep the TAB profits flowing for a long time yet! No doubt the TABS/bookies will be trying to force the government to act on this but I really don't see how they can stop it. The sensible thing would be to embrace the new technology and for the TABs to join together to set up a true Australian exchange to tap into the huge potential overseas market - but I cant see that happening - it would require them to move with the times and be competitive!

[Hammers]

Mark,

Say you offer to lay Northerly at $1.25 around 20 minutes before jump time as was his price yesterday. How can you guarantee the following;

a) someone will back it. It blew from $1.12 to $1.35 on track and was a similar drifter with Betfair. The $1.25 on the bet side of the screen that you saw was very quickly replaced with $1.28 then $1.30 then $1.32. The $1.25 soon slid off the end of the screen not covered. Just because its there doesn't mean someone covers it.

b) what if it firms? Once you have layed at $1.25 you can't bet at less than that obviously.

Becareful said he backed Grand City for substantially more than he wanted to on the basis that he would lay it back at a shorter price. He made a huge assumption that the horse would firm. I assume the $4.43 was achieved by betting say $1000 @ 3.85, laying $800 @3.50. It wins you win 850, it loses you lose 200, less commission = around $4.43. Your bet in this example is that of a $200 punter as that was your loss risk. If Grand City blew you placed a $1000 bet. If your answer is that you knew it would firm, then you have an ability that few share. Putting 5 times your stake on a horse at under its best price (which is what you have done if Grand City - like 80% of runners do, blows) then you have broken every money management rule in the book.

Looking forward to being told I'm wrong.

[becareful]

Hammers,

Personally I avoided Northerly as I was not sure what was going to happen - I thought it would drift a bit but wasn't sure so left it alone (I didn't want to back it at that price but thought it would probably win so didn't feel confident laying it either).

With the Grand City example I was 95% sure it would firm. The reasoning behind this is simple - on TABCORP it was sitting firmly on around $2.60-$2.70, similarly on IAS it was showing $3.00 (slightly firmer than the opening IAS price). I was therefore very confident that the 3.85 on offer on Betfair would not drift and would almost certainly shorten to the $3.50-$3.70 price range, possibly even shorter. Therefore I put the large bet on and waited for it to firm and then layed off the excess to get the bet size I actually wanted at a substantial premium.

As you point out you can never be sure that a horse is going to firm - you are at the mercy of the market - but as a general observation if Betfair price is way above TAB/Bookies then it is more likely that it will firm than drift - if you can get it right more often than you get it wrong you will make money. As to holding $1000 bet I would not have done that - if it had started to drift I would have sold the excess at say $4.00 and just taken the loss. I must admit the backing/laying equation is a lot more like the stock market than the horse racing game we are used to - you have to try to anticipate market movement but I don't think it is as hard as the stock market - you can get some great indications from the prices on TAB/IAS before making your move.

[Hammers]

Becareful,

Fair enough reasoning although not fool proof but you do acknowledge that.

I wonder how the timing of the flucs on Betfair compares to the "real thing" on course. Would an on course spotter have time to relay the firmers to someone off course linked to Betfair and back them before they firm and then layoff. Takes the risk out of your actions becareful.

If the flucs are almost simultaneous then it clearly wouldn't work.

[Tony]

These arbitrage setups are easier to achieve in the in-running betting on the sports events.
Tonight for instance it was possible to back Australia out to about 1.80 while England were going OK in the first 10 overs and now at the change of innings can lay them back at 1.13.
Backing Australia early still required the accurate assumption that they were going to get back into it at some stage, which is a far better bet for mine than hanging for the Betfair odds to follow the IAS odds in the much thinner markets at the races.
This seems to be where the big players are arbitraging, about 100,00 was bet on Australia in this period at better then 1.70 and more than 2.5 million has been matched total, huge.

[Mark]

Hammers

Of course, you can't guarantee anything in racing. If you look at my past postings you will see that I make a living out of trying to back everything at the best price I can, & after many years experience you get a feel for which horses will blow, which will come in & when the price is just about at it's limit. Still, you can't be right all the time, just so long as you're more right than not. Re Northerly I would have been happy to lay it at $1.25, $1.3, $1.33 because I believed he was a genuine risk at that price. The $1.25 was there for a few minutes for an amount of $5000.
There is money for every horse in a race, I have never seen a runner going around at say 20,000/1 on the TAB, every runner on a Saturday has some support, it's just a matter of how much at what price. What Becareful is doing is just using the markets for good business, & no he/I won't be right all the time, but if you can pick up some $$$ with no risk then you can't beat it. I would rather take the risk on getting the prices right on 1 or 2 runners a couple of times a day than going the punt, as you can see from how badly I am doing on the tipping comp.

[Paddy]

The latest international gambling craze – betting exchanges – are posing a real threat to the integrity of horse racing, according to Hong Kong Jockey Club senior consultant and former Sydney-based chief stipendiary steward John Schreck.

“It is a cancer that threatens to ruin the horse-racing industry. They are already beginning to have an effect on the integrity of racing and have the potential to do enormous harm to the industry in general,” Schreck said during a business session on wagering at the Asian Racing Conference today.

“They have only just begun to spring up but already are proliferating across the world as more and more consciousless people grab at the chance to get rich quick at the expense of world racing,” he said.

Betting exchanges are run by organizations such as London-based Betfair and the recently established Australian-based TwoFlys.

These exchanges manage the transaction of a person who deposits with it an amount of money. This in turn is made available at attractive betting odds on the Internet for accredited punters to bet against each other.

The betting exchange operator brings together these people via the Internet and makes a profit from deducting a management fee of about five per cent from net winnings by either the layer or the bettor.

Schreck said that exchange betting raised a number of factors which could impact on the integrity of horse racing. These include:

· Neither the exchange operator nor the layer or bettor are bound by the Rules Of Racing.
· The exchange operator is not subject to any probity check by either racing or civil authorities.
· The operator of the betting exchange is not subject to any criminal record check.
· Presently the betting exchange operator is unwilling to disclose to racing authorities the names of bettors.
· Licensed trainers or jockeys could, under the cloak of anonymity, may be inclined to assist their horse to lose.
· The bettor could have a close connection with a trainer, rider or stablehand.

Schreck said that already rumours were rife that many jockeys and trainers had been earning plenty from laying odds on their horses to lose or getting someone close to them to lay odds. “This is easily arranged given the anonymity of betting exchanges"

“My view is that the only way horse racing can survive this threat to its integrity is for it to be made illegal for anybody to have transactions with betting exchanges. If this is not possible then a second solution is that perhaps there may be grounds for establishing a structure that will enable racing supervisors to follow the money trail and thereby making the covert modus operandi of today an overt operation. This would require a club to establish its own legal betting exchange, creaming off a set percentage of the turnover that would benefit racing control and the supervision of the racing contests and hopefully ensure that participants were reputable and subject to the Rules Of Racing,” Schreck said.

England’s Racing Post news editor Tony Smurthwaite said Betfair.com was launched in London in June, 2000.

“From the outset it was more popular with existing sports fans with odds tending to be higher than those offered by traditional bookmakers as the profit margin was effectively stripped out. It was a maverick cool way of betting and people liked the fact they were not feathering the nests of the major bookmakers in betting through exchanges,” Smurthwaite said.

“Within nine months of its lauch Betfair broke through 1 million pounds a week in turnover,” he said.

“From 1 million pounds in April 2001 the figure grew to 5 million pounds a week by December 2001. By February 2002, after a merger of two exchanges, the turnover per week reached 10 million pounds and by the start of January this year the figure had exceeded 50 million pounds,” Smurthwaite said.

Betfair chief executive Edward Wray said the organization handled 600,000 bets last Saturday alone.

He said there was a lot of hysteria among traditional betting outlets about betting exchanges but this was totally unwarranted.

“We are helping to grow the racing industry and reputable organizations such as ours are putting something back to racing in the United Kingdom by way of a product fee which is currently 10 per cent on commissions (gross profit) which is paid to British Racing. We are also prepared to do so in other overseas countries by talking to the racing clubs concerned,” Wray said.

He said Betfair was operating globally and had taken bets on races in Australia and New Zealand in recent months.

“Betting exchanges are here to stay. There is no turning the technology clock back and the betting public want them,” said Wray.

[becareful]

[quote]
“They have only just begun to spring up but already are proliferating across the world as more and more consciousless people grab at the chance to get rich quick at the expense of world racing,” he said.

So now I am a consciousless person trying to get rich at the expense of world racing! :evil:

Why is it that is is perfectly OK for the owners, trainers, jockeys, bookmakers, TABs, and especially the big racing clubs to get rich from racing but if the poor punters start to have a winning chance then that is wrong?

Certainly there need to be some rules and controls to prohibit jockeys/trainers, etc betting on the exchanges but this needs to be done in co-operation with the exchanges - trying to ban them will just force them to move to a country that welcomes gambling operators (eg. Carribean islands) and you will have no control at all. It is no different from any other sport where gambling is common - you just have to make it clear to all the "players" that any betting by them is banned and if any of them get caught then they are automatically banned for life.

I find the whole "this will ruin the integrity of racing" argument a bit of a joke - maybe someone can explain to me how having a leading trainer and a bookmaker in the same family is not a breach of this high integrity standard or are we supposed to believe that they never discuss the winning chances of the various horses running the next day?

[shy]

Is there any reason Australian TABs have not and could not offer a similar service... so that money is still being directed into the Aussie racing industry and current strict controls are enabled? To me it is such a great product and could really grow racing interest. I say good on any company that gives the punters a bit of a go!

By the way... I loved that movie Shrek :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: shy on 2003-03-04 13:34 ]</font>

[Mark]

Jockeys, trainers, stablehands etc have & always will bet on & against their runners, no matter what the rules.

[becareful]

Shy,

Of course they could offer a similar service (although the online gambling legislation could pose a few problems to true Australian companies - but TABs could get that modified easily!). The problem is that would require them to be forward thinking instead of desperatly trying to protect their large margins so it probably won't happen.

To me the logical solution would be for the three major TABs to join forces to create a single exchange which they could then "sell" under their own brands - so you would access it from the individual TAB websites (and possibly branches) but it would be a single exchange behind the scenes. This would give them the advantage of keeping costs down (by sharing them) and the punters the advantage of bigger pools. The 5% commission could then be directed to the appropriate TAB depending on where the bet was sourced from and then split with the government & racing industry.

The benefits to the racing industry could potentially be enormous with the extra turnover from overseas customers.

Of course what will probably happen is they will try to fight the exchanges instead and by the time they realise it is an inevitable evolution it will be too late and they will have missed the boat.

[xanadu]

Fellas,

I don't wish to be the bearer of bad news but Please correct me if I am wrong butI think it is illegal for we punters in NSW to bet with this agency.
Each day we are bombarded by an official announcement stating in it's best draconian tone: "it is an offence to bet with overseas operators not registered in NSW." Does this apply to Betfair?
Sorry about the negativity.

Cheers.

[Every Topic]

Xanadu, I think you are referring to this from the Racetab site...
http://www.racetab.com.au/illegal/index.html

of course many things are illegal and we still do them, but obviously there is a risk involved, especially in blabbing about it on an open forum or advertising it.

those who are in favour of this sort of thing are better off spending their energies writing to the TAB's, racing industry heads and other vested interests.

see ya
Every Topic

[becareful]

The law only applies to NSW punters so the rest of us can take advantage of Betfair legally (at the moment!). Obviously for NSW residents there is a risk involved but to date I have not heard of a single person being prosecuted under this law and I would think it would be next to impossible for them to prove it as there is currently no way for the NSW Govt to force Betfair to hand over customer lists or their betting records. If you are concerned about the law then either stick to the TAB or Australian bookies or move to a better state/territory :grin:

PS. ET - you weren't aiming that blabbing/advertising comment at me were you? Surely you would know that Canberra is not part of NSW!
_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-03-05 12:21 ]</font>

[xanadu]

We are supposed to live in a free society and one of the cornerstones is supposed to be freedom of choice.
I say good luck to you fellas as what do we punter get from govts? - the dreaded rounding-down of divs which cost you and me over a hundred million dollars annually. No wonder people look elsewhere!

[Every Topic]

no BC,
I wasnt aiming the comments at you in Canberra.

I was just making the point generally that with everyone talking about it so much and talking about how great it is compared to the TAB's is perhaps not the wisest move.

Governments are happy to ignore things that you do quietly.
They only feel inclined to take action when people flaunt it in their faces :smile:

So IF this stuff is wonderful, eg Betfair etc, then maybe its the kind of thing one should quietly enjoy before there is a rush away from the TAB's and every State DOES legislate against it.

By the way, are you sure that its legal in every State to bet on local races via an overseas agency???

keep up the good work,
see ya
Every Topic

[Every Topic]

by the way...
it does open up ones mind as to how incredible lazy and incompetent the local TAB's are -
but I cant for the life of me imagine they would want to run Betfair style operations - they would be taking 5% commission on money that they normally get triple the commission on.

cant see it

Every Topic

[becareful]

ET,

Fair enough - although I doubt this forum reaches enough people to generate a "rush away from the TABs" :smile:

With regards to the 5% vs 15% commission point the main reason I would see is that it would probably generate a huge increase in turnover. For example last Saturday I only had one "normal" bet (placed with IAS) but 5 bets on Betfair - none of those would have occured on the normal TAB as I was either laying, taking advantage of the huge overs or doing a "surebet". Had I not had other commitments in the afternoon it would have been much higher still. Therefore my turnover was more than 5 times higher than it would have been without a betting exchange - 5 lots of 5% is certainly better than one lot of 15%.

Even for punters just using the exchange to place their normal bets I am pretty sure over time they would be investing significantly higher turnover on an exchange - most people do not say "I will bet $500 turnover this month" - they say "I will put $100 in the account and bet until that is gone" - if they are losing less due to the lower takeout then they will compensate by increasing their turnover.

Add to that the potential international market which makes the Aussie turnover look insignificant and maybe there is a reason to set one up? They could even brand it with a different name so that the regular TAB punters did not know it was a TAB offering and still keep their 15% from the mugs money.

[becareful]

For those who are interested Betfair will be covering races from Adelaide tomorrow (as well as Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney metro). Also they have been covering quite a few of the midweek meetings although the turnover on these has been pretty low as you would expect.

[becareful]

Also just found out they will be covering all NRL and AFL games - with "In Match" betting on those games.

[partypooper]

I am humbled by the knowledge of you blokes, but have I got it right that if like most us you are a loser, then all you need do is LAY the horses we "would" have backed and we're IN????

[shy]

Partypooper.... if only it were that simple :smile: If you can lay them for very close to the price you would have paid for a win you more than likely would be ahead. The problem is the price you pay to lay. For example paying just .30 more for a short priced fav will kill any profit over the long run.

[becareful]

Partypooper,

As Shy has indicated the price on Betfair is usually over the TAB/Bookie price so simply laying what you used to back will generally not work to well (of course it depends on how much of a loss you are making to start with - if you are loosing 30% on turnover then you probably could make a decent profit simply laying your selections). I have been working on a system for laying and here are the selections for today.

The rules are simple - if the horse is over $4 on Supertab (but less than say $12 - don't want the risk to be too high) then lay it on Betfair provided the price is not too much higher than the TAB price (10-20% should be OK). If it is under $4 on TAB AND the price on Betfair is higher than TAB then back the selection instead. I have given 2 selections for each race - only use the 2nd one if first selection is scratched.

SR1 1,5
SR3 1,4
MR3 1,3
SR4 5,7
SR5 1,11
MR5 2,6
SR6 6,1
MR6 2,15
SR7 2,3
SR8 2,5
SR9 7,3
MR9 1,2

[partypooper]

Shy & becareful, thanks for that. What has me interested, is a lot of reseach I have done on pre-post favs. i.e. back em all and you lose consistently 10-15% on T/O, the higher the pre-post price the greater the loss on T/O up to 30%.(overall it doesn't seem to matter which publication is used as long as you stick to the same one) You see where I'm heading here?