Concensus System

[Percentum]

OK, those of you watching my own and other punters tips on here know that the hardest thing to do is to come up with something that is consistent. I wonder what the result would be if a few or many of us posted our ratings comparing every horse in a race and then allocated points i.e. 1 for top pick, 2 for 2nd etc. The end result of however many people posted there ratings would be the horse with the lowest total being the concensus top pick etc. This would be a huge undertaking on every race but perhaps we could target a few races on a Saturday (I'd prefer large fields and open betting races rather than a small field with an odds on favourite in it). Although we may not necessarily come up with the winner, if we all have valid methods (on their day) we might be able to couple a reasonable number of exotics in say, the top 6 or 7 or perhaps top 2 to win with top 9 to run 2/3 etc.
In the Oakleigh plate for example, my ratings were 14-8-5-12-11-4-13-7-2-3-15-10-9-6. Thus my ratings came home in the order 4th-10th-9th-11th. First 4 in NSW paid $64,000 with flexibetting allowing someone to take their top 4 to win into their top 12 to run 2/3/4 for an outlay of $40 for a 1% collect of $640. Hope all these words are making sense as it's all just flowing out. I think a concensus ranking would certainly have had Choisir and North Boy closer than I had them. Anyway, food for thought if anyone would like to participate on ,say, the Newmarket Handicap.

[Percentum]

Toughest race today (there are many) appears to me to be Bris R8.
I've rated them in this order:
4-12-8-19-11-16-6-14-5-7-13-9-10-18-1-3
Anyone care to put their rated order up so we can see what our combined thoughts come up with?
Will do the same for WA R6 and 8 later in the day if anyone cares to contribute.
For the purposes of comparison using my rankings 4 scores 1 point, 12 2points, 8 3points right down to 3 which scores 16points.
If anyone else contributes use this same method to allocate points.
The lowest total becomes the concensus 'top pick', 2nd lowest = 2nd pick etc.
May come up with something interesting in the exotics as I anticipate a good divvy in such an open race.
Good luck all !

[Pre-Post]

Eagle Farm Race 8

6-16-8-4-5-1-3-12-11-7-9-14-18-19-10-13

Good luck,

Pre-Post

[TESTAROSSA]

Well Done Pre Post ,

(6) Rautai's Warrior - 1st @20/1.

& (8) finished 3rd at nice odds as well.

Sorry Percentum would have posted my ratings but i don't rate 3yo races , maybe next week.

Cheers.

[Percentum]

Good Tip Pre Post! How'd you do that?
Anyway, by combining the ratings we ended up getting the 3 placegetters in the field of 16 in the order of Eq 3rd/ Eq 7th/ 2nd.
A 3/8/8 trifecta would have covered this. Outlay $126 return $2000 +.
In the case of equals I usually plump for the one drawn closest to the fence.

[Percentum]

Using the barrier rule to separate horses that finish with the same final ranking the top 4 positions in concensus rated order were 3rd/7th/2nd/1st.
The pick 4 in NSW paid $7900.
Work out the various combinations that could have got you a collect.

[Percentum]

Here are my ratings for the Newmarket tomorrow. Will do an update of the concensus selections about midday tomorrow if there are further contributors:
10-14-13-5-9-21-1-17-20-8-3-7-2-4-16-6-19-15-18-22-12-11

[Pre-Post]

My Newmarket ratings, after scratching of No.7

3-2-16-6-10-1-18-12-4-5-8-14-15-9-11-22-17-19-20-13-21

Good luck to you Percentum
Good luck to all,

Pre-Post

[Paddy]

My Newmarket ratings:

1-16-6-12-2-3-10-4-5-11-13-20-8-15-17-18-21-9-14-19-22

[TESTAROSSA]

My Newmarket Ratings:

3-9-1-2-5-14-10-4-8-15-18-20-21-16-6-17-13-11-22-12-19.

Cheers.

[Percentum]

Final Ratings:
1-3-10-2-5-16-4-6-9-14-8-13-12-18-20-15-17-21-11-22-19
Last week we'd have struck the NSW pick 4 taking top 3 to win into top 8 to run 2/3/4.
Paid $8000 for an outlay of $630 (or $80 for $6.50 taking a 1% flexibet on NSW TAB).
Now let's see what happens this week.

[Percentum]

My rated order from 1st to last in the Railway is:
3-14-5-4-12-16-6-18-20-9-11-7-2-1-8-19-15-17-10-13
Anybody care to add these and see what concensus we can come up with.
A flexi pick 4 nominating top 4 into top 12-12-12 to run the minors will be my default bet.
Good luck.

[Percentum]

A losing result backing 4-12-12-12 according to rated order. Ratings for me came in at 12-9-7-8 so nowhere near it really.
I think there is an optimum field size for first fours. The bigger fields (18+ or so) often don't have sufficient in the pool to cover paying on all combinations. Hence you could back the field in a field of 18 (118 440 combinations), the absolute outsiders could get up and you'd be paid out at the approximate pool size (30-40K) which would be gross unders.
I think that a 'working' size for first 4s is around 12 to 14 starters. Next step is to find such a race which promises to throw up an above average priced set of placegetters (maybe a race with 5+ [or so] horses 1st and 2nd up in it). Anyway, food for thought. Anyone interested in contributing, I'll nominate a race on Friday and allow until midday for your thoughts. That way I should be able to work out the concensus ratings by approx. 1pm.

[Percentum]

My ratings for WA race 8. (Fruit & Veg)
Will be interested to see concensus on this race.
20-14-15-11-10-6-8-17-13-16-4-1-7-5-12-9-19-18-2-3

[wesmip1]

Percentum,

I did these more quickly then I like but my ratings are :

15-13-14-9-11-16-17-4-6-10-7-1-19-8-5-12-20-3-2-18

[Percentum]

Combined ratings give this rating order:

15 - 14 - 11 - 17 - 10 - 6 - 4 - 9 - 8 - 1 - 5 - 12

[Percentum]

Concensus ratings order was 7th, 2nd, 12th, 3rd.
Notice that barriers 1, 2 and 3 filled the placings for a $4000+ trifecta.
I think there is a viable system somewhere around these criteria: big field (14+) and open race [maybe group or listed] and inside 7 barriers at Doomben or Ascot.
Logic - big field + 'grand final' type race = genuine pace; horses have to work really hard outside; bulk of runners in this type of race have ability so can take advantage of a sweet run.
I can recall 3 barrier 1 horses winning the Doomben 10 000 from in the last decade (Sunavail at 25/1; Count de Beers and Red Oog at 20/1). I think barriers 1-7 filled the placings this year. Takeover Target won the big race today from barrier 1.
I think Ascot favours inside horses as well.
Anyway, food for thought.

[Percentum]

The Villiers is my concensus race this weekend.
My rated order:

7 - 3 - 21 - 13 - 11 - 1 - 16 - 2 - 15 - 17 - 19 - 18 - 8 - 12 - 4 - 5 - 9 - 14 - 6 - 20 - 10