A Staking plan for place betting - Trial

[UselessBettor]

I have been following a couple of place betting systems which I came up with for betting the place on betfair. Unfortunately I can not put the selections upo here before the race as the price movement of the win odds as well as the price available for the place odds are part of the selection technique.

I will though put the results of following a staking plan that might work with this. The idea is simple. You place all up bets until you make 20 times the starting amount. So if you start with $1 bets then you place all ups till you get to a return of $20. Once you hit $20 you pocket it all and start the whole thing again but with 10% of the winning amount. So in this case it would be $2 for the starting bet with an aim to make $40. If we hit that then we pocket $40 and start betting with $4 with an aim to make $80. The bet sizes and amounts to make are below:

$1 = $20
$2 = $40
$4 = $80
$8 = $160
$16 = $320
$32 = $640

So far (in theory as no bets were placed) my systems have returned the following odds in order:

1.41
1.63
1.18
1.61
1.09
1.53
1.57
1.44
1.52 <-- $1 became $21.54 here. So pocket $1.54 as profit and start betting with $2.00 per bet.
1.5
1.3
1.15
1.11
1.15
1.12
1.17
1.29
1.51
1.32

The current result for the sequence is up to $17.42

The idea is you have have 10 attempts to get the run required. If you don't hit it in that you have only lost your inital $10. The idea is risk little money for big rewards.

I have stopped the progression at $32 because the highest bet there would be around $550 - $600 and I just don't think we will get the liquidity on betfair to cover bets which go much higher then that in the place market. Just out of interest $200 on each selection would have yeilded $1254 return after commission, but this method is to get from the $10 you start with in order to increase your bank so that you can start a flat stake of at least $100 or $200.

I have no idea if this will work but I'll give it a go and see what happens.

[Bhagwan]

I hope you have plenty of patience because it can be a very frustrating way to punt .

Here's another place staking approach to play around with.

3 Block staking plan

Bet
111
222
333
444
ect.

We bet all 3 bets for each block of 3 .

Repeat that block that shows a profit for that block but is still has not recovered all losses.

Start again once all losses are recovered & new bank high has been reached.

[Bhagwan]

I forgot to add...

Works best on 1.80+ shots

[UselessBettor]

Thanks bhagwan. the set of bets looks interesting.

[norisk]

Bhagwan I see the plan you suggested above works best at $1.80&>, has anyone got any suggestions for a place staking plan with an average dividend of $1.70?

[norisk]

Digging back through old threads & came across an interesting 4 bank staking plan by a member named Testarossa - anyone tried/using it?

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=1032

[Shaun]

If anyone wants to follow a staking plan like this there is a simple maths formula that works well and would return similar results if you were doing it manually.

Using a standard parlay bet of 4 selections there are a total of 11 bets involved.
6 Doubles
3 Trebles
1 4 horse all up

For $10 units this would be $110

If you selections are in different races you justs need to place 60% of the total on each selection.
EG

$110 = $66 remainder is $44

After the race you add all returns plus the remainder to give you a new parley amount.

Using the above figures if we had a place runner paying $1.50 x $66 return = $99

$99 + $44 = 143

The next bet would be 60% of this amount $86 adjusted with remainder $57

If you have a loss then the new bet would be 60% of the remainder.

Try this out using a 4 horse parlay with both methods and see how close they are.

[Bhagwan]

Heres another approach

Target say 5 -7 successes in a row.

Only all up 80-85% of total returned amount onto the next bet.

That we if we come unstuck , we will at last have some returns for the effort.

[enjay]

Hi Shaun.

I have something that may interest you. Have been meaning to get in touch for some time. Give me a bell if you are interested.
sabu at northnet dot com dot au

Cheers

Norm

[norisk]

Thanks for the suggestions

[norisk]

Bhagwan, I have had success with your 111,222,333,444 over the last 2 days, securing me an extra $90+ profit in comparison to level stakes with only a $225 increase in turnover. Impressed so far:)

I am considering capping the level increase at 4 & if & when it comes to it, sitting at that level until back in profit or the bank is reduced to 60%, when I will draw a line under the loss & restart.

Bank is calculated at 60 units - being 1+1+1+2+2+2+3+3+3+4+4+4 = 30 * 2 = 60units

Thoughts?

Ps a few juicy overs in the Betfair place markets today didnt hurt either

[The Ocho]

If anyone wants to follow a staking plan like this there is a simple maths formula that works well and would return similar results if you were doing it manually.

Using a standard parlay bet of 4 selections there are a total of 11 bets involved.
6 Doubles
3 Trebles
1 4 horse all up

For $10 units this would be $110

Hi Shaun. I don't suppose you have an excel sheet (for Excel 2000)where you can work out the next bets based on the previous bet winning or losing?

I'm not exactly savvy on the old excel but I was thinking of giving this a try over a few results that I've had recently with the place markets that didn't quite work out. Running it your way may be better.

By the way, shouldn't the above be 10 bets and not 11.

[Shaun]

Sure will put something together for you and no 11 bets is correct for a parlay.

[The Ocho]

No worries, thanks Shaun.

I always thought 6+3+1 = 10 but I stand corrected....lol.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Norisk,
Well done on those results.

I guess there are a number of options one could entertain with that staking plan.
and that option you suggested is a a sound as any.

Usually that option only works if the plan shows a level stakes profit.

The 3 Block staking does not rely on the plan showing a level stakes profit.

With your selection plan , its an idea to know what its percentage SR is over approx 150 bets.
Or several batches of 150 bets.

Then you will be able to work out the theoretical run of outs will be by referring to that run of outs chart we posted.

Then you will know what size bank you will need if the worst case scenario happens.

I have used the 3 Block staking plan for a long time & it continues to show profits where at level stakes , one is struggling to break even.

Can you say what your min price is?
Can I ask what selection approach is being used?
or if you prefer email at b.brian at optusnet dot com dot au

[Shaun]

6 doubles
4 trebles
1 4 horse all up = 11

My mistake.

[norisk]

Thanks Bhagwan,

The current strike rate is around 72% & price range is between $1.50 & $9.0 Betfair SP. It is showing a healthy profit at level stakes with tab odds & I consistently obtain over 20% extra profit after commission using the Betfair place market with stakes up to $100.

Checking past results using your 111,222etc showed increased profit without a huge increase in stakes, which has proved out so far.

The selection process is a bit convoluted, basically I create ratings for each race, convert those to prices & my selection is that horse under $9.0 which shows the greatest overs & passes a few basic filters.

[The Ocho]

If anyone wants to follow a staking plan like this there is a simple maths formula that works well and would return similar results if you were doing it manually.

Using a standard parlay bet of 4 selections there are a total of 11 bets involved.
6 Doubles
3 Trebles
1 4 horse all up

For $10 units this would be $110

If you selections are in different races you justs need to place 60% of the total on each selection.
EG

$110 = $66 remainder is $44

After the race you add all returns plus the remainder to give you a new parley amount.

Using the above figures if we had a place runner paying $1.50 x $66 return = $99

$99 + $44 = 143

The next bet would be 60% of this amount $86 adjusted with remainder $57

If you have a loss then the new bet would be 60% of the remainder.

Try this out using a 4 horse parlay with both methods and see how close they are.
Hi Shaun, I'm finding it difficult to follow your 60% method if you have a loss.

Are you saying that if the 1st bet losers (-$66) then you would continue the 4 bet parlay (another 3 bets) using 60% of the remaining $44 (which works out to be $26.40)? The remaining 3 bets in the sequence wouldn't get that much back.

Or do you just start a new sequence if you have a loss with $66 again?

I'm confused. :confused:

[Shaun]

The maths i used are something Bhagwan posted years ago that i remember.

The idea was to use the maths to place a 4 horse parlay on different races as most tabs only let you do it on the one venue.

Testarosa used a similar idea but placed his bets manually but using the 4 horse parlay or similar.

So what we have is a rolling set of bets that never ends, because this is not a strict 4 horse parlay you can decide on the amount you would bet for your parlay lets say 110 and because each new bet starts a new set of 4 races you would put 60% of your new bet plus all accumulated winnings on the next bet.

Now because this is continuous we need some points where we collect winnings, i should be able to make an excel sheet to do this all you would need to do is put in a starting amount and winning prices.

[Bhagwan]

Does every one remember that Fortune on Four that was advertised for 30 something years.

They would claim that $10 could be leveraged to $100.00 by just all upping the place market on 4 Favs .
Yeah right.

The average div would have to be $1.80 to make that happen.

It sounds easy doesnt it.
Now try doing it for real .

If one wants plenty of high paying place divs , for the Fav & 2nd Fav then the UK Dogs would have to be the best value I have ever seen.

They have only 6 runners paying 2 divs for the place
The fav nearly always pays $1.80-$2.00+ on Betfair
And a number of the others in the race paying $3.00-5.00
Amazing.