Barrier Positions

[xanadu]

When doing our form study, one of the most important factors is barrier positions....right?
Well, tell that to the Hawkesbury Race Club. Today, I witnessed Race 1 at Hawkesbury which had seven starters.
Horses were duly loaded but from barrier 5 outwards! That is, the inside runner started from barrier 5. As I am a keen form student, this occurence has the potential to completely affect my final calculations detrimentally and is something I will have to be very observant about in future. The track was dead(later changed to good) but by manipulating the starting positions, the race club has intervened and may affect the whole pattern of racing. Some horses will be unfairly advantaged and some disadvantaged. However, my point is whether this practice should be allowed to continue.
What is the point of doing hours and hours of form study then to have all our efforts brought undone at the whim of the race club.
It's just another variable which makes picking winners all the more difficult...what do you think? Any comments welcome.

[Mark]

Well spotted Xanadu, but Hawkesbury are not the first or only club to do this. Have a look at the 2000m start at Randwick. The "rails" barrier is out in the middle of the track & has been for years. Won't even comment on the 1200m start at Flemington, inside, outside, middle! Having said that I believe it has little affect, but not everbody would agree, which is fair enough.

[becareful]

Personally I don't regard barrier position as that critical in most cases but I think that the important thing is the relative position anyway. Whether the horse drawn 1 starts from 1 or 5 it is still the closest horse to the rail and the one drawn 7 still has 6 other horses between it and the rail regardless of whether it is actually starting from 7 or 12. Except for the Flemington straight (which is a whole different issue) I can't see how offsetting the barriers can advantage or disadvantage any runners over the "correct" positions and therefore can't see how it would affect your form study. You should still treat the horse in 1 as being in 1 as there are no other horses between it and the rail.

[xanadu]

Thanks for the input fellas,

The point I make is that if an informed form student knows that the inside running at todays meeting is a quagmire then he will adjust his form calculations accordingly(it was posted as a dead track earlier in the day). That is unless the horse is able to handle this type of running, then, as I said, it can be an advantage.
There is potential there to affect our overall ratings/appraisals as in general terms a lot of programs provide an advantage of +.5kg for the first seven barrier positions. I am not saying that I adhere to this criterion but there is a perception that the inside barrier(s) offer some advantage which may assist a particular runner(ie.less distance covered in the run than wide runners, taking up a forward position, etc).
Anyway, I look forward to a wide range of views on this subject and value your opinions.

See ya later.

[woof43]

Sometimes its good to conduct a study on the effect of Barrier Position by doing an avg of the ground covered by each runner from each post, then you do an avg of distance covered by runner ridden by each jockey...

[xanadu]

Becareful,

You don't think this has the potential to be a defacto "cut-away" rail? A savvy rider could begin slowly from a wider barrier then hunt up on the inside thus saving several lengths. Fine, good riding, but an unexpected/unanticipated factor to be considered by we form students.
I believe that if they draw barrier 1 then they should start from that barrier notwithstanding the state of the track.
Isn't that what form study is all about? - by spending hours poring over every variable then hopefully coming up with an "edge" over the general betting public?
I just see this as an inappropriate practice by the racing club(s) and I will have to be more vigilant in respect of this aspect in future.

[becareful]

Xanadu,

I suspect that if anyone tried to do this the rider of the "Barrier 1" horse would be well within their rights to move over and cut the other one off - I would think the stewards would take a dim view of a rider trying to hunt up the inside before the first turn! Without knowing the exact circumstances it is hard to make any conclusions but there could have been a good reason for the starting arrangements - eg. given the rain affected track maybe there was a very soft patch near the inside rail that would have disadvantaged the inside runners if they started from their correct barriers? Surely in this case it is better to consult the riders and come up with an offset solution that gives each horse the best chance rather than just loading from Barrier 1 because that is what the punters expect? Just my opinion but I suspect you may be worrying too much about this - I doubt it was done to give anyone an advantage (as I said more likely to avoid a disadvantage to some runners and give everyone a fair start). I am sure the owners and jockeys would be kicking up a fuss if they felt it was a disadvantage to them (and they are no doubt in a better position than us to judge).

Just my 2c worth :smile:

[xanadu]

Becareful, I suppose you have a valid point. Although I don't like what is happening I can't let it have a detrimental influence on my form study. I'll adjust my calculations to take this into account.
Thanks for your opinion.

Cheers.

[Rain Lover]

Xanadu,
Another 2c worth.
Try leaving barrier positions entirely out of your calculations and see if it makes a long term difference to your selections/profit etc. I don't believe the "science" of race form analysis is accurate to that many decimal places.
Cheers.

[red]

On a different tangent I hope when the rail placement is out then they move the barriers accordingly to keep the same distance. Otherwise those relying on race times might be accurate one week, useless the next.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: red on 2003-03-03 03:33 ]</font>

[xanadu]

Very good point, "red"-this is what I was getting at...that there is a determinable effect on the horse's final performance/rating.
Thanks for the input.

[xanadu]

G'day Rain Lover,

Thanks for your opinion. However, do you not think that barrier positions at some courses can have an extremely detrimental effect on a horses performance, if drawn wid?. Especially in those courses that have chute starts and others where there is a turn about 200-400 metres after the start.
I invest every day, not only on city tracks but a lot of country and provincial tracks and many have such lay-outs, and I monitor this factor in my form study in an attempt to "get an edge" on the general betting public.
After rain, some tracks have quagmire conditions near the rails after a few races. If your selection was in the inside barriers later in the day wouldn't you reconsider your investment?