Please help

[Vortech]

Currently I'm using a variety of systems through Bet Selector, and did a lot of testing right through from 1st Jan 2008 to 31st Dec 2010 (3yrs). The system were producing around 35% SR and 40% POT.

From Jan 11 I starting putting my systems to use with real dollars and it continue for the next 11 months.

However Dec 11 to date has seen for me 27 selections for only 7 winners. Today (Saturday) I had 9 selections, 0 winners. I have a loss of 36.7% for the month.

Do I ride this out or investigate the systems letting me down? When Zippy broke his leg in Adelaide it was the icing on the cake.

Happy to share my rules through email for advice

Thanks

[domenic]

Vortech,

Could be just one of those runs, hard to tell without specifics. I can test a lot further back than 2008 with Bet Selector if you wish, let me know,
sema4rat at hotmail dot com.
A few minor changes to the ratings have also taken place.

Cheers, Domenic.

[Vortech]

Thanks for that. I'll send the rules through.

[Bhagwan]

I would halve my bets or paper bet only until you see 2 winners get up then start again.

All systems go through a tough patch sooner or later.

The question is what should one be doing while all this chaos is happening around us.

You do know that horse would have been alive today if your money was not on it, don't you.

I found stopping once 12 outs in a row bites me.

When one gets up , then start again.

So if there is a losing run of say 23 outs in a row , then we are on only 12 of them.

I have found that this works well for me.
Others may disagree.

[mattio]

I currently run about 20 different systems through Bet Selector, I'd be happy to have a look at your system if you like. mat at sportofkings dot com dot au.

[Vortech]

Thanks for the replies.
Mattio I'm just needing to test the systems back to 2001.
I use around 30 systems.

[norisk]

Dont know if others will agree, but I have often found December to be a real 'feral' month. By that I mean otherwise reliable methods can wildly fluctuate, or fail altogether.

How knows why, but I suspect it is to do with the winding down somewhat of the industry leading into Xmas Holidays resulting in an across the board drop in the quality of racing.

Not a bad idea to take a break early December to early January, punters need a spell now & then too;)

[domenic]

Vortech, will test and let you know. I do not bother with HK form so those systems won't be tested.

Cheers

[Vortech]

Thanks domenic.
Let me know of your thoughts. Eg. Too many rules, limited selections or too many systems. Am I aiming too high with POT?

[enjay]

Hi Vortech.

I can help with form back to 2000. I run a number of system that have their ups and downs. Can offer you some of mine if you wish. I can also test all venues except NZ and HK. Quite happy to help with advice. Contact sabu at northnet dot com dot au

Cheers
Norm

[aussielongboat]

I would reckon if you carefully went back through the test data back to 2000 you would find periods where the results were equally sour for a period.

You just notice it more in real time and with real money whereas in data test mode you can have a few bad months followed by some strong months and you think " oh well - ho hum - nothing to worry about".


cheers

aussie

[moeee]

i find you very real Aussie longboat.

I wish you all success you deserve and hope you don't lose your way by being distracted by those who know not what they do.

[Vortech]

I''ve just sent you an email Norm
Cheers

[Bhagwan]

Hi Vortech,

One thing I found when running multiple systems at once, was that much greater percentage POT was made by not doubling up on selections , picked 2 or more times by the various systems.

We dont want to make the assumption that just because a Horse is picked twice that it has twice the chance of winning.

[aussielongboat]

Hi Vortech,

One thing I found when running multiple systems at once, was that much greater percentage POT was made by not doubling up on selections , picked 2 or more times by the various systems.

We dont want to make the assumption that just because a Horse is picked twice that it has twice the chance of winning.
There 2 ways of looking at that final elimination method.
1. On the one had you could say that it seemed to work because your systems were inherently no good .
This is because the selection and systems are mutually exclusive- if they come up they should be backed no matter what. I mean – that’s how the system was generated - by its own individual performance. In real time by reducing that element of the outlay all you were doing was delaying the inevitable.

2. BUT on the other hand (in support )you could say that if your systems had picked the same selection(s) independently multiple times it was probably coming up on many other punters systems and thus would be over bet. By dropping it off you removed the so called “certainties” and thus increased your overall win price dividend because as we all know “certainties” sometimes don’t work out that way.


My conclusion as to which way was most reflective of the true situation would be determined by asking “where are the systems now.”
If they are in the trash can of broken dreams it would be “1” if they are somewhat alive it could be “2”
Cheers

Aussie

[Vortech]

Thanks for your comments.
A very nice gentleman has run some of the systems going back past my test period. During this test period we had the following

Of the 25 systems: 14 were making a good strike and POT for my liking. The others to the testing bin

On your question of duplicates, when testing I tick remove duplicates and only normally back level stakes.

[moeee]

Simply marvellous Post and Summary and Conclusion AussieLongboat.

I get the impression that you are not quite as successful as you would wish.
But be knackered if I can work out why.
One thing I do know though.
I'll be reading all your posts.
I know you have winning approaches and guides in every single one of them.

May that GOD lift the veil on that final curtain for you AussieLongboat.

[aussielongboat]

Simply marvellous Post and Summary and Conclusion AussieLongboat.

I get the impression that you are not quite as successful as you would wish.
But be knackered if I can work out why.
One thing I do know though.
I'll be reading all your posts.
I know you have winning approaches and guides in every single one of them.

May that GOD lift the veil on that final curtain for you AussieLongboat.

thanks moeee.
I will do a profile on that other page.
I was out of punting for 10 years whilst i was concentrating on my business.
only restarted again December 2010.
yes - i would like to be more successful and am working on it,

cheers
Aussie

[KaiserSoze]

Dont know if others will agree, but I have often found December to be a real 'feral' month. By that I mean otherwise reliable methods can wildly fluctuate, or fail altogether.

How knows why, but I suspect it is to do with the winding down somewhat of the industry leading into Xmas Holidays resulting in an across the board drop in the quality of racing.

Not a bad idea to take a break early December to early January, punters need a spell now & then too;)
Are there any further subscribers to the above theory?

I've had about a dozen systems going since 3 October (not a long time, I know) showing consistent strong results until 8 December when it all fell in hole. Also, can someone elaborate more on the changes to ratings that were mentioned by domenic? Several of my systems draw on uniTAB and Neural ratings, so if these have been changed, then that might provide and explanation...

[lomaca]

Also, can someone elaborate more on the changes to ratings that were mentioned by domenic? Several of my systems draw on uniTAB and Neural ratings, so if these have been changed, then that might provide and explanation...This reference was made regarding the Betselector programme I believe?

[Chrome Prince]

It's a funny thing about those ratings, they seem to be systems rather than ratings.
They pick enough longshots to make it breakeven at TAB prices, yet bear absolutely no correlation to the variance of traditional ratings.
In other words BR ranks have wide variances.
Backing overlays and underlays has no degree of worth.
Top rated that are favourite are worse than favourites alone.

Not potting them, but I think the term "ratings" is a misnomer in this case.

[Vortech]

Is there also a direct relationship between unitab ratings and the Racing and Sports Website - Rating "EST" column

[Vortech]

If a system has limited selections (100-500) over a period of 11 years but still producing a positive POT, is a newbie looking at generating other systems better off looking at systems with 1000+ selections and a smaller POT even if over a period of 2-3 years.

Which would give you more confidence of a future profit?

A) Testing over 11 years with a positive POT but 100-500 bets (More variables in system)
B) 1000+ selections over 3-4 years with a positive POT. (3-5 Variables in a system)

Cheers

[KaiserSoze]

I've run this comparison exercise over all the data I've collected over the past few months. Maybe it can be useful to others who have developed mechanical systems that rely on such information...

Averages for winners only:
Category, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan thus far
UniTAB Rating, 94.74, 94.92, 94.77, 94.26
UniTAB Rank, 3.60, 3.58, 3.68, 3.93
Neural Rating, 133.16, 134.52, 132.74, 129.44
Neural Rank, 3.98, 3.99, 4.03, 4.10
DS Rating, 31.58, 31.33, 30.52, 29.44
DS Rank, 3.87, 3.82, 4.04, 4.05
Career Prize Money, $4.696k, $3.174k, $2.722k, $2.255k
Career PM Rank, 4.37, 4.45, 4.42, 4.58
Finish Win Div (Uni), $8.20, $7.80, $7.81, $7.52
Finish Place Div (Uni), $2.48, $2.41, $2.46, $2.42

Averages for fo all finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd:
Category, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
UniTAB Rating, 93.75, 94.05, 93.95, 93.67
UniTAB Rank, 4.02, 3.97, 4.12, 4.14
Neural Rating, 128.10, 127.52, 125.04, 124.92
Neural Rank, 4.23, 4.32, 4.49, 4.42
DS Rating, 30.78, 30.51, 29.94, 28.74
DS Rank, 4.18, 4.17, 4.30, 4.28
Career Prize Money, $3.632k, $2.848k, $2.435k, $2.147k
Career PM Rank, 4.63, 4.74, 4.99, 4.82

Obviously, the dropping average ratings and rising ranks of winners/placegetters show that December and January have been more inconsistent for these ratings due to the lower class of the fields.

It would be great if anyone can provide similar figures from before October last year. That might give an indication as to when things will "return to normal".