Best Bet Lay Bonanza

[Chrome Prince]

It seems our tipsters are either helping out the bookies or just absolutely hopeless.
Thanks to them, I have found lay gold.
Many are very short prices and get turned over.
I can't say that anything untoward is happening, but I sometimes have my suspicions, as many of these tipsters are exbookmakers.
So before I get into any trouble, let's see if there's any other explanation as to why the performance is simply dismal.
If I am wrong, then they are simply over paid hacks, and any forum anywhere could do a better job.
To be fair, I had a look at their best bets only, and the performance is simply woeful.
What seems to be going on, and even went on in the sixties and seventies according to someone I know who worked for a racing newspaper, is that the best bet is the lay of the day, the value bets and roughies are the actual tips!
There has been considerable "pressure" to be popular and make your best bet something "others" can make a buck from.
As the money streams in for this false best bet, it's a win win situation ;)
To make it look good the occasional "you can't leave it out" best bet sneaks in.
I mean you couldn't leave out a Northerly or a Black Caviar, that would be too obvious.

So let's see how one such harness tipster faired in his last twenty best bets of the day. Incidentally another exbookmaker ;)

20 selections
5 winners
25% win strike rate.

Of course that doesn't look to bad, but wait, the majority of them were odds on favourites :eek:

So the win return on these Best Bets was $10.10
That's a loss of $9.90
or a loss on turnover of a staggering 49.50% !!!!!

On even money to odds on Best Bets ( remember these are supposed to be the specials, the very best of the day, the one's earmarked out of all the tips to follow, the cream de la creme, the professional punters banker bet).

Oh dear has it come to this, the tipsters are shafting the little guy who has his $2.00 on the best bet to buy his formguide and coffee the next day.

There is more to this than meets the eye, or I'm totally wrong and they are simply getting paid to pull tips out of a hat.
No wait, that would be more accurate!

So in an effort to prove that I'm talking bollocks, lets follow the Best Of The Best and record the performances.

For recording purposes, I'll record the Herald Sun tipsters best bets on Gallops and Harness and report in that way.
Each tipster is allowed to have his own Best Bet even if a couple agree.
Can't be fairer than that.

The old excuse that the poor old fellas have to tip every race won't hold water here, as this is the fairest way to judge, Best Bet Bonanza.

And here common folk and gentry are the lays today :D

Kyneton R5 1 Doolam Lover
Kyneton R6 2 Lightenuff
Kyneton R7 5 Rainbow Queen

Terang R1 Keayang Delight
Terang R4 Devilish Smile
Terang R6 Scareed
Ternag R8 Vesper Lynd

[The Ocho]

LOL :D

Go get 'em Chrome! :mad:

Seriously, good luck. There is nothing like laying odds on faves and them falling over.

[Chrome Prince]

Well it all sprang out of looking at their performances from a backing perspective.
I couldn't believe how bad they were at picking shorties!

Then I remembered a couple of things.
Things people had told me about tipsters from working with them.
For example at the Age, they used to go to the races and the tipsters would tell them not to back the best bets. This is in the seventies and an account from a typesetter who worked there.
They were told to look at the roughies and value bets, not the best bets.
And it was understood that it was a warning of sorts.

Then we have a couple of exbookies tipping who went under, and it would behove them to tip for the bookies let's just say.

Tipsters don't win any accolades, they are on a meagre salary (most of them), it's like a freelance job. They are not held accountable for their results.
As long as they tip reasonably now and then, it's all good.
If you can put in a decent summary that sounds like you know what you are talking about, your position is fairly guaranteed.

So it would not be beyond the realms of possibility for a cash for comment scenario to appear attractive.
I'm not saying it happens, I'm saying it is possible to happen.
The tipping results stand alone.
49.50% Loss, on odds on favourites certainly makes one think in that direction.

[UselessBettor]

Chrome,

Its an interesting angle. Regardless of whether they do it deliberately or not their selections are likely to be overbet regardless.

I am guessing you have targetted certain tipsters by analysing their results. I would like to do the same but I am not sure where to get the tipsters from. For example I have no idea for the radio tab tips.

The only tipsters I can find are on the 2ky site (same as sky site). Do you have any other sources ? If you don't want to put it here publicly could you email me the tipsters who you think are worthwhile watching at betfinder @ exemail dot com dot au . I understand posting the data is fairly sensitive.

[Bhagwan]

I did a post on this very subject on this forum some time ago.

Chrome is right.

They truly are miserable results.

Their SR over 150 bets that I checked was approx 22%
They were usually favs.
The average Fav wins 30%.
So how can they be that bad, one wonders.
One would assume their SR to be 30%+

Best bets can be found on the UniTAB site by looking for the tipsters selections which have an asterisk on top of the selection numbers Top selection.
I call them Star Bets due to the *asterisk resembling a star.
Sometimes its a +plus sign.

Example.
Todays selections Tue 20th Dec
Tam 5/3 2.90 L
Kyn 2/7 2.30 W
3/4 5.90 L
7/5 3.20 L

Loss -1.70
40% POT if laying at these prices.
25% SR

This is a fairly typical result


I found if one targeted any of these star bets by either tipster , priced...
3.50-4.90
Win SR was 19%
A level stakes profit of +36% POT was made by Laying them.

Go figure.

And these people work around the Horse industry 8 hours a day.

I am at a total loss as to why it is so.

[Chrome Prince]

You can use any tipsters you like.
I use heraldsun formguide online.
You can basically use any tipster anywhere, as they are all the same, as long as they aren't a guest tipster.
Looking at the results I also like to avoid those best bets that are top tips by others.

Point to note is that they can't help but tip some short priced winners, it's going to happen, but long term they are as Bhagwan suggested....hopeless.

[norisk]

Nice work Chrome Prince - as a daily watcher of TVN, when a bit bored I lay any & everything Richy Callender sprouts as a 'good thing', cant go wrong:)

[Chrome Prince]

http://www.propun.com.au/archived_advice/betting_advice141006_2.html

I just found this pre Betfair in OZ, so I guess Neil had noticed the same thing.

[Chrome Prince]

Kyneton R5 1 Doolam Lover Lost
Kyneton R6 2 Lightenuff Lost
Kyneton R7 5 Rainbow Queen Lost

Terang R1 Keayang Delight Lost
Terang R4 Devilish Smile $1.65 (betfair weighted price)
Terang R6 Scareed $2.81 (betfair weighted price)
Terang R8 Vesper Lynd Lost (betfair weighted price $1.40)

Daily wrap:

Loss Backing @ Betfair prices 2.54 units
36.29% Loss on turnover.

Perhaps they should be renamed after a tea, aka tynee tips!

P.S. there were 4 tippers at Terang, guess who picked Vesper Lynd - our friendly exbookie, aka Mr. Consistent.
More cash in the bag :D :D :D :D

[The Ocho]

Nice Lay results CP. :)

[UselessBettor]

I took the sky tipsters today (thoroughbred only) and the results where the tipster selection was favourite was a total of 14 tips for 3 winners with the amount being paid back to punters being 9.43.

This means you made a profit of 11*0.95 - 9.43 = 1.02 units

Roughly a 7% profit.

[Chrome Prince]

Well it could well workout, but tread with caution, I like to lay their best bets only.
In fact their other tips do quite well, especially longshots or value bets.
The whole thing about this is, their Best Bets have a woeful record.
So if laying all their tips were breakeven on Betfair, laying the Best Bets should be a honeypot, as they are well down on strike rate.

Like in the UK, the Pricewise selection is enormously overbet by punters.

A lot of recreational punters like to either get out on the best bets or back them on their lunchbreak etc.

[UselessBettor]

Chrome,

I am only looking at those tips which started favourite. So if its 2nd favourite then I don't record it. My thinking is that if its favourite and its been tipped by a tipster then it might be overbet and therefore a good lay.

I went through the last 2 days and one of the tipsters has tipped 12 favs for only 2 winners returning 5.33

Overall in 2 days there was a combined 55 tips on favs (some double up obviously) for 18 winners which is 32% but only returned 46.93 so with a 5% commission this returned $6.22 profit for laying.

I'll monitor this for the next few days and see what happens.

[Chrome Prince]

Interesting approach, we'll see how it pans out.
I'm avoiding best bets when they are best bets with more than one tipster.
But maybe you have something there.

[UselessBettor]

Looking at it of the 12 tipsters that are recorded only 3 made a profit in the last 2 days.

So will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

[michaelg]

There are six tipsters in the Saturday Telegraph, each giving their best selection for the day.

Out of interest, I often see see how they fared. I've never bet them nor kept records so I don't know if they've been successful or not, but my general impression is that they are not too bad.

I checked the last three Saturdays for their bets tips. There were eighteen of them for seven winners paying exactly $24.00.

Of course it might just have been a good period, but as previously stated, my general impression is that the tips haven't been too bad. But I must admit I haven't been checking them on a regular basis.

[thorns]

Often wondered if the same thing would apply to the market mover that they announce befoer the start of most races. Surely any value has long sice gone, and as people load up.

In thinking along these lines, what about the horse who is well supported in the market for a start, then shortens on BF dramatically, surely again, any value about that horse has since gone as the masses load up on it follwing the market movement thinking its a sure thing?

[Chrome Prince]

Sandown R3 Wookah
Sandown R5 Valedictorian
Sandown R6 Straveen
Sandown R6 Louisville Dancer
(Query over Del Palio in R5, as more than one has it as his best bet.
Not including it).

Eagle Farm R6 Pear Tart
Eagle Farm R7 Sons Of God

Wyong R5 Lucy Louise
Wyong R7 Urgent Bells

Gawler R7 Lottalago

Trots:
Mildura R2 Caulonia Babe
Kilmore R8 Just Wal

[Travolta]

you may want to have a look at googling for "the great tip off dot com" which is a site that tracks performance of media and pro tipsters best bets (you may need to register/join to see leaderboard)....

you are spot on - there are a couple who generate a small POT but most media tipsters are losers.

[norisk]

so Richy's special today at Wyong is R6 No1 Above All - apparently "It will win" despite the awkward gate...we will see;)

I should add it is a selection in a place system I follow, although I usually pass when they are this short (<$3.00), so will tip it to get pipped at the post.

[norisk]

good ol' Richy, rarely lets me down:)

[Bhagwan]

Using UniTAB tipsters today Wed 21 Dec

There were 6 Start Bets
* on top of their first selection

Only 1 won at 1.60
The rest fell over

Their prices were 1.60 - 3.00 - 3.20 - 8.50 - 3.50 - 2.70

Thats a win SR of 16.6%
These are great for Laying.
Who needs to buy expensive Lay tipping services.

Laying all at level stakes.
Got back 5.00
Paid out .60
Profit 4.40
88% POT for the day.

If laying these at level stakes.
Its a strong idea to halve ones bet on any greater that $5.50

[Bhagwan]

Hi UB
You may wish to double check those figures.

Unless I did something different.

I figured
14 sel= O/L 14.00
Ret divs 9.43 (including stake)
Lay profit +4.57
Less 5% Com .22
Total $4.34
POT 31%

[Chrome Prince]

Sandown R3 Wookah Lost
Sandown R5 Valedictorian Lost
Sandown R6 Straveen Lost
Sandown R6 Louisville Dancer Lost
(Query over Del Palio in R5, as more than one has it as his best bet.
Not including it). It won @ $6.37, so my methodology turned out to be correct today

Eagle Farm R6 Pear Tart $1.68
Eagle Farm R7 Sons Of God Lost

Wyong R5 Lucy Louise Lost
Wyong R7 Urgent Bells Lost

Gawler R7 Lottalago Lost

Trots:
Mildura R2 Caulonia Babe $1.23
Kilmore R8 Just Wal Lost

Another cracking day.
Outlay $11.00
Return $2.91
Loss Backing -$8.09
73.50% LOT

[norisk]

Methinks the grail has been unearthed;)

[UselessBettor]

Hi UB
You may wish to double check those figures.

Unless I did something different.

I figured
14 sel= O/L 14.00
Ret divs 9.43 (including stake)
Lay profit +4.57
Less 5% Com .22
Total $4.34
POT 31%
You are right I forgot to add the 3 winners back in. the calc should have been

((14-3)*0.95)+3-9.43 = $4.02

You need to take into commission only on the winning bets so commisson is actually 55c not 22c.


Just as an update I have checked yesterdays results and overall now the system has had 90 selections for 29 winners (32%) and a payout of 76.74 meaning a profit of $10.21 units after 5% commission. In the trial so far there have been 15 tipsters with 4 of them tipping more then 1 meeting.

If you removed the top tipsters from the results (who has tipped in 6 meetings) the results are 67 selections for 19 winners (28%) and a profit of $15.60 units after 5% commission.

[Chrome Prince]

Toowoomba R4 Funhouse
Toowoomba R6 Outback Legend
Wyong R4 Hidden Warrior
Wyong R5 Bella Rossi
Wyong R6 My Man Of War
Seymour R1 Just Hustled
Seymour R3 Harry's Magic
Seymour R4 Hex
Seymour R5 Tiger Stripe (no bet multiple tipsters)
Mt Gambier R5 Mr Farinelli

Charlton R7 Mathias
Cranbourne R2 Renaissance Franco

[Chrome Prince]

I don't think the lack of performance comes from people lumping on, the strike rate is also very low.
You'd be better off backing blindfolded yourself.
If we take out the multiple picks, it looks much worse for them.
One would think that they have access to ratings, and as journos other info we don't have.
Could it be that they are really that bad?

I don't think so!

[Chrome Prince]

Well it's been another cracker of a day if the last two don't salute.
Renaissance Franco is 1.00 on the tote right now, and I would have picked it to win, but not at those odds.
Highlight of the day was Mathias getting rolled @ $1.43

I'll post a full workout from the start, after Cranny R2.

I wish my brother George were here :D

[Stix]

Toowoomba R4 Funhouse
Toowoomba R6 Outback Legend
Wyong R4 Hidden Warrior
Wyong R5 Bella Rossi
Wyong R6 My Man Of War
Seymour R1 Just Hustled
Seymour R3 Harry's Magic
Seymour R4 Hex
Seymour R5 Tiger Stripe (no bet multiple tipsters)
Mt Gambier R5 Mr Farinelli

Charlton R7 Mathias
Cranbourne R2 Renaissance FrancoWish I saw this earlier...would of saved some cassssshhhhhhhh :D

[Bhagwan]

Star Lay bet results for

Thur 22 Dec.
As tipped by UniTAB tipsters with an * on top of their first selection.

7 selections under 11.00
1 won their race ar 2.10
14% win SR (Horrible)

Incoming amount 6.00
Payout --------1.10
Profit +4.90
70% POT

They performed as expected.

[Chrome Prince]

Sorry Stix, but it has been a bumper day!

Toowoomba R4 Funhouse Lost
Toowoomba R6 Outback Legend Lost Rolled @ $2.12
Wyong R4 Hidden Warrior Lost
Wyong R5 Bella Rossi Lost
Wyong R6 My Man Of War Lost
Seymour R1 Just Hustled $2.51 Winner
Seymour R3 Harry's Magic Lost
Seymour R4 Hex Lost
Seymour R5 Tiger Stripe (no bet multiple tipsters) not included, but lost
Mt Gambier R5 Mr Farinelli Lost

Charlton R7 Mathias Lost Rolled @1.43
Cranbourne R2 Renaissance Franco Lost Rolled @ $1.29 :eek:

Outlay 11
Return Backing $2.51
Loss $8.49
LOT 77.18%

Surely this can't go on at this level?

[Chrome Prince]

Running Tally

29 Selections
Return 9.88
Loss 19.12
LOT 65.93%

Many favourites and odds on favourites within that.
Safe to say, even the worse tipster couldn't do as bad as this, so draw your own conclusions. ;)

On the other hand, there are areas where they are profitable, their suggested longshots and value bets are doing well, and where there is more than one tipster best bet on the same horse is ahead.
Therefore it cements the fact that they can tip, but.....

[Chrome Prince]

Incidentally, Renaissance Franco burned himself out in the third quarter of the last mile, he sizzled along at the fastest quarter of the day, so there was no petrol left in the tank at the end.

Was this a tactic, was this known, was this a coup for the bookies?

One can only speculate and wonder, but it has really set off alarm bells, even the caller called the third quarter time as if "what's he doing?"

All conjecture, but at the end of the day, the dollars are in the bag, and for mine speaks volumes.

(especially when it's tipped as the bet of the day at silly odds by an exsatchel swinger).

I may be wrong of course, but the evidence is really building up.

[norisk]

She's a tough game Chrome Prince, a tough game:)

Unless of course, one can 'unleash the beast'...

[Chrome Prince]

I'm actually laying these, so anything that they want to do is all good ;)

[UselessBettor]

My stats for the day were also good. 34 selections for 8 winners and a return of 24.05. The profit for the day for laying was 8.65 units.

I have noticed a large number of favs going done the last few days so it may just be a short term result for now.

Overall 124 selections for 37 winners and a profit after 5% commission of 18.86

Of the days I have tested it has had 3 days in profit and 1 losing day.

[Bhagwan]

Interesting stats guys.

Especially those realy, realy short commodities falling over.
That's funny.

Imagine what the profit return on those odds on shots would be if one was cheeky enough to lay them to fixed Liability.
e.g. 1.29 bet to liability say $30 = O/L $103

Pay out if it wins $30 Loss
Profit if it falls over minus com +$98 profit
You would be laughing like a Hyena

This is funny.
It all fits in to stats I did 2 years ago.

Those hot tips fall over big time.
Their win results on the specials are simple horrible.
And one would assume those guys are smart.
They do have the odd day where all the shorts get up on the day , but they barely break even when that happens.

If one wishes for a Laying Plan that's successful at targeting short priced runners .
Then its hard to go past this idea.

And you don't just get one or two on the day like those expensive racing services offer.
You get heaps of them , 7 days a week.
Just set a cut off price of $4.90 & you will be laughing.
Betting level stakes is the more profitable in this price range.

[The Ocho]

But where can you find the tips the night before instead of looking at the paper in the morning before work (for us plebs) when we don't have time to look at the tips and place the bets? Does anyone know of this place?

[Bhagwan]

Hi Ocho,
With this valuable information why on earth does a man have to go to work.

I ask this question of you .
Rather than looking for these specials to appear before scratchings are known, at the time you want them to.
Why not appear at work at a time you want to.

It's as simple as that.

Why is it all left to me to do all the thinking around here?

[UselessBettor]

But where can you find the tips the night before instead of looking at the paper in the morning before work (for us plebs) when we don't have time to look at the tips and place the bets? Does anyone know of this place?
As Bhagwan said. Unfortunately it is not possible.

I am trying to code it and its not straight forward either so at the moment I m just checking them manually.

[thorns]

Is there anywhere online that has a good tipsters poll with a variety of tippers?

[Chrome Prince]

Cranbourne R3 Donovans
Cranbourne R4 Miss Muja
Cranbourne R6 Rock Of Ages
Ipswich R4 All That
Ipswich R6 Ticket To Dream
Sunshine Coast R5 Psychodelic
Wagga R1 Sipaan
Wagga R3 Sand Dune
Dubbo R5 Craig'n'ian
Dubbo R7 Hewentwhoosh

Melton (Night) R4 Blucolla Tigerpie
Melton (Night) R6 Arber
Menangle R7 The Big Mach

I've left out all duplicate best bets.

[UselessBettor]

Is there anywhere online that has a good tipsters poll with a variety of tippers?
no idea

[Chrome Prince]

I don't know of any central resource for tipsters or even how to get them the day before.

I'm using the herald sun online formguide and the tattsbet.
If one wanted to go all out, I would get together all the tab sites and all online rags, but I think there's more than enough action just doing it this way, and Saturdays should be twice as busy.

In an interesting contrast, the racing post in the UK has a nap table, I believe the nap table is best bets from various tipsters, because they also have a seperate poll table.
There are about 20 showing a profit for the month at bookie SP.

[UselessBettor]

Tipsters are hitting back today with my records currently showing 22 tips for 12 winners and a lay loss of 14.93

[Chrome Prince]

Two out of three best bets have landed so far, could it be that this is the day.

Nah, Hutchy surely won't let me down ;)

[UselessBettor]

My results are showing 36 tips for 19 winners showing a loss of 24.37 units for the day.

Mind you over 4 days it is only down 5.5 units overall from 160 selections.

Its an interesting starting point. I'll keep watching it to see how it goes after 300 or even 500 selections.

Chrome,

I count 3 from 4 of them winning now.

[norisk]

Yeh, a lot of favoured runners getting up today, had to be an even out day sooner or later

[Chrome Prince]

Cranbourne R3 Donovans Won $7.48
Cranbourne R4 Miss Muja Lost
Cranbourne R6 Rock Of Ages Won $2.99
Ipswich R4 All That Won $2.80
Ipswich R6 Ticket To Dream Won $2.01
Sunshine Coast R5 Psychodelic Won $1.73
Wagga R1 Sipaan Lost
Wagga R3 Sand Dune Won $1.74
Dubbo R5 Craig'n'ian Lost
Dubbo R7 Hewentwhoosh Lost

Melton (Night) R4 Blucolla Tigerpie Won $5.27
Melton (Night) R6 Arber Lost
Menangle R7 The Big Mach Lost

Outlay 13
Return Backing 24.02
Profit 11.02

[Chrome Prince]

Running Tally

42 Selections
Return 33.90
Loss 8.10
LOT 19.28%

Was a horror day for the lays, and I'd imagine that this was probably one of the best days backing ever.
Will be interesting to see how it fares after the weekend.
Still ahead nearly 20%.
In reality, still way ahead as have been laying to liability and a few very short horses lost this week.

[UselessBettor]

"All tipsters lay the fav" tally for yesterday was 56 selections for 29 winners (and at good odds $4+) with a lay loss of 36.78

Overall it is now showing a loss. A lot of the damage was done by one tipster who tipped multiple meetings. He had 18 tips for 10 winners and contributed 18.15 of the loss. Prior to today he had only gone 5 winners from 22 selections and had been profitable laying.

[The Ocho]

Just set a cut off price of $4.90 & you will be laughing.
Betting level stakes is the more profitable in this price range.
What would have happened yesterday if Bhagwan's advice of only laying under $4.90 was followed?

For one the $7.48 winner would not have been picked.

I looked at the Herald Sun yesterday and noted that all 3 tipsters picked Donovan to win but only one was the best bet. What if you delete the ones where all tipsters pick the same horse (or maybe where the majority pick the same horse)? What would happen then?

[Travolta]

laying to liability looks to be a good option here as it appears that the price of these hot tips that fall over is less relevant to the strike rate than normal? By that I mean it appears that as many short and odds on pops fall over as the $3-4 priced ones..

if that is true (is it??) then a % of bank fixed liability approach would work well....wouldn't it?

[UselessBettor]

I have to admit I have not been recording each selection and whether it was a multiple pick or anything. So I really should go back and see what I can come up with.

This looks half promising as at least a starting point for a method of laying.

Lucky I am sick and have time to do this ..

BTW MErry Christmas everybody.

[UselessBettor]

Just did a quick test on the selections and I havbe only loaded a few days so far but laying to liability of $1 showed a loss of $1.68 but just putting $1 on it with variable liabiliuty showed a profit of $11.94

Very early as its only on 86 selections but that is a bit of a huge difference already. I haven't loaded yesterday results yet though.

[Chrome Prince]

I'll not be posting selections, as I really don't have the time at the moment.
I will post the summary tonight.

Rules are: Best Bets from Herald Sun and Tattsbett where it is best bet by only one tipster.

We are still showing a 20% POT laying at Betfair prices.

[Chrome Prince]

Sand R4 H3 Won @ $3.10
Sand R4 H4 Lost
Sand R5 H8 Won @ $3.05
Sand R8 H5 Lost
Gold R3 H2 Lost
Morp R4 H1 Won @ 3.14
Morp R6 H9 Lost
Morp R7 H2 Lost
Asc R4 H4 Lost
Too R2 H9 Won @ $1.99
Too R3 H4 Lost
Doo R3 H3 Lost
Doo R4 H1 Won @ $2.18
Doo R5 H8 Lost

Running Tally

56 Selections
Return 47.36
Loss 8.64
LOT 15.43%