Using tipsters

[UselessBettor]

I am going to try something a little bit different here. I am going to assume that there are experts out there who know a lot more then me and I'm just going to hire them. Obviously the experts are other tipsters. I'll keep a running tally here on the results to see how it goes. This will be theorectical for the first month at least to see how it goes.

If anyone can recommend some tipsters please let me know who they are and where their tips are available. As this is theorectical I need to be able to see their results day by day.

I will start with quite a few tipsters which I have done a quick analysis on and should proive to be profitable. I'll update results after each days racing as some tip in the UK or Japan. I'll drop tipsters when they do not perform. I'll take into account costs of each tipster.

I'll update todays results later tonight or tomorrow.

[Chrome Prince]

This will be interesting given their lack of performance on the other thread.

[UselessBettor]

I'll update this for yesterdays selections to get the ball rolling:

190 Tips
42 winners
243.84 returned

So far so good. A profit of 53.84 units. At $10 per bet its up $530.84 for yesterday.

Interesting to see how this holds up.

[UselessBettor]

This will be interesting given their lack of performance on the other thread.
These are paid and free tipsters. So I assume those charging should do better then the free tipsters on sky/tatts/2ky/newspapers.

[norisk]

Have you subscribed to these tipsters UB?

If they were any good would they be flogging what would/should be their bread & butter?

[Travolta]

I'm actually testing a system that takes 5 tipsters that have a documented poor performance, which is greater than 15% LOT over 3 months or more - and there are PLENTY of these (stats from thegreattippoff dot com) and laying every one of their best bets that is under $5.

It is showing nice profit but early days..... I think as per other thread, identifying tipsters with a history of losing POT and laying their tips will turn out to be far more profitable than trying to follow "winning" tipsters, who are very few and far between.

I will provide a report after I get enough data to be credible, but it really does look promising. Given my own history of success as a punter I could probably just lay my own best bets for a similar result, but this is far easier on the old ego!!!

[Bhagwan]

Hi UB
I have found that the POT improves if one does not double up on our bet on any selections mentioned twice or more by 2 or more tipsters.

e.g. Horse picked 5 times by 5 tipsters.
Only bet it once , not 5 times , because it wont have 5 times the chance of winning.

Just like the Specials for the day dont have twice the chance of winning.
As we have seen on the other thread.

---------------------------------------------
Hi Travolta.
I like that idea of a running last 3 month data on tipsters .
That sounds very logical.
Because things do change as we have all seen, in racing

[UselessBettor]

I didn't update this for the 8th and 9th so here are those results:

61 tips (combined 2 days)
14 winners
67.10 returned.

I am jut checking results and not subsribed to any tipsters.

[UselessBettor]

I'm actually testing a system that takes 5 tipsters that have a documented poor performance, which is greater than 15% LOT over 3 months or more - and there are PLENTY of these (stats from thegreattippoff dot com) and laying every one of their best bets that is under $5.

It is showing nice profit but early days..... I think as per other thread, identifying tipsters with a history of losing POT and laying their tips will turn out to be far more profitable than trying to follow "winning" tipsters, who are very few and far between.

I will provide a report after I get enough data to be credible, but it really does look promising. Given my own history of success as a punter I could probably just lay my own best bets for a similar result, but this is far easier on the old ego!!!
I just checked that site and the tipster leaderboard only goes to 50 and all these are at worst 13% loss. How do you see the tipsters worse then this.

[Bhagwan]

That Australian Great Tip Off site is quite amazing in detail.

Yhere are a lot there doing better than I would have thought.

[Travolta]

yeah it is a bit difficult now because they only give you the top 50. I have had an account for quite some time, so have an idea of some tipsters that are down the bottom end... but having said that, if a tipster is making a 15% LOT over 3-12 months, you can lay him and win can't you?? or is this too easy?

[UselessBettor]

yeah it is a bit difficult now because they only give you the top 50. I have had an account for quite some time, so have an idea of some tipsters that are down the bottom end... but having said that, if a tipster is making a 15% LOT over 3-12 months, you can lay him and win can't you?? or is this too easy?
I would say it depends on the odds. I wish I could see those lower. 50 is just not enough to see on the ladder. I would love to see those at -20% or worse.

[Travolta]

I think you may have misunderstood UB, the odds (based on NSW TAB prices) are already considered/calculated which is how they come up with profit or loss data (see "performance" tab for any tipster). I was talking about 15% Loss on Turnover, not 15% win strike rate.

I assume that if a tipster is consistently tipping at a yearly LOT of 15% at NSW TAB odds, that you could lay his picks with a staking plan and make a profit???

...and if you could then add a couple of filters by looking at his last 5 months results and seeing where he is least successful (state of track, specific tracks, distance range etc..???).

[UselessBettor]

I think you may have misunderstood UB, the odds (based on NSW TAB prices) are already considered/calculated which is how they come up with profit or loss data (see "performance" tab for any tipster). I was talking about 15% Loss on Turnover, not 15% win strike rate.

I assume that if a tipster is consistently tipping at a yearly LOT of 15% at NSW TAB odds, that you could lay his picks with a staking plan and make a profit???

...and if you could then add a couple of filters by looking at his last 5 months results and seeing where he is least successful (state of track, specific tracks, distance range etc..???).
I mean the betfair odds. you can't assume betfair is less then 15% above the tipster selections. It all depends on what thos betfair odds are becuase if they are 20% higher then the tab for those selecitons then you will lose long term.

[Travolta]

yep, good point, does anyone have any info that compares TAB price to betfair SP? I would think that under $5 or so it would be pretty close, but reckon over that the betfair prices would have an advantage.

[UselessBettor]

yep, good point, does anyone have any info that compares TAB price to betfair SP? I would think that under $5 or so it would be pretty close, but reckon over that the betfair prices would have an advantage.My experience is that it varies. Sometimes you find over 20% or 30% on those under $5 and sometimes you find it a negative %. It really depends on the selections and there is no one size fits all. Even over $5 it can vary greatly.

My suggestion is to get the Betfair advantage tool and check the prices of the selections each day and check it real time and make sure you take into account commission prices of 5% properly. Do it on every selection not on the total. but thats been discussed here before.