Wonder how this would go.

[darkydog2002]

Distance 2400+

LS = Win

LS @Syd/Melb

[Bhagwan]

It appears Laying all LSW 2400m+ has a very high success rate of falling over.

No Price range indicated.

Lay Result
89%
53% POT


There were 128 selections for the System
There were 114 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 89.06%
You had to pay out $54.25 but brought in $121.6 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $67.35 or a percentage profit/loss of 52.62%

The Rules used were : distance >= 2400 and lastStart = 1

-----------------------------------------------------
Make big money with this
LAY PLAN
Bet to Liability 1/15th of bank.
Lay Bet all LSW
2200m+
Prc 6.00+

Result
97% SR
65% POT

There were 151 selections for the System
There were 146 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 96.69%
You had to pay out $44.80 but brought in $143.45 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $98.65 or a percentage profit/loss of 65.33%

The Rules used were : WinPriceLay >= 6 and distance >= 2200 and lastStart = 1+

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Bgahwan.
There you go.
The perfect Laying system.

Read it and weep Maria.

[The Ocho]

This looks good DD & Bhagwan but how many 2200m+ races are there a day/week?

[Chrome Prince]

How many of them were jumps races?
All last start winners, or those with at least one run from a spell?

[darkydog2002]

Good point OCHO.
And how many were LS Syd /Melb ?

Cheers

[norisk]

Interesting as one of my filters for a win system I run is to exclude last start winners where todays race distance is >=2100m.

[norisk]

Just my roughish figures - in 2011 there were 105 2400&> non jumps races all states excluding South Australia & TAsmania

Sydney & Melbourne accounted for 65 of them.

No wonder we cant win the Melbourne Cup anymore;)

[Chrome Prince]

The secret ingredient, send your horse out over the jumps.
Then we will have Cup winners.

[darkydog2002]

Thanks fellers.
Wish I knew how to lay bet.

[Bhagwan]

The data shows that only 3 winners out of every 100 getting up, betting everything that moves in that $6.00+ price range.

So just Lay bet the lot, that qualify.

Even if your lucky enough to find a resumer in a distance race in Aust. that had won previously. (Double the bet)

No need to complicate things.


How many of them were jumps races? --- Not many.

All last start winners, or those with at least one run from a spell? --- Either

How many 2200m+ races are there a day/week?--- A few

And how many were LS Syd /Melb--- quite a few.

[norisk]

The secret ingredient, send your horse out over the jumps.
Then we will have Cup winners.


Names allude me at the moment but there has been a few trainers having success with freshening up their horses this way.

Will run Bhagwans system through my somewhat limited database tomorrow & report back, reckon it's a winner.

[darkydog2002]

I reckon its a goer too.
Thanks Bgahwan.
Much appreciated.

[The Ocho]

Maybe if someone good be good enough to list any selections here for the next week or so to see what happens rather than everyone trawling though all the race fields? I'm not volunteering though. :oops:

[darkydog2002]

Hey Ocho,
Baghwans NEW system is still making 48.2 % on TO.

20/12/2011 - 10/1/2012

Outlay $3000 Nett $1447.

[darkydog2002]

Sandown
Race 6 H 4 = Derisive.- LAY

[Bhagwan]

Hi Darky
"Wish I knew how to lay bet."
What did you mean by this?

[darkydog2002]

Hi Baghwan,
I have absolutely no idea how to LAY bet, and I,m not the brightest bulb in the lighthouse.
Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

11/1 Lost

[Mark]

Darky, does the last start have to be @2400+, or just today's?
I noted 4 last start winners in the race.....they ran 1-2-3 & unp.
Only one was 2400 or more but it was not in Syd/Melb. Have I missed something?

[darkydog2002]

Just todays Race Distance Mark.
Cheers
darky

[Mark]

Which leaves us with 4 selections/lays.....

[norisk]

Expanded the criteria a bit & came up with this for the last 18 months or so -

Races 2100 &>
Last Start Winner - if more than one in field selection is shortest SP
Field Size - any
All states except SA & TAS
Filters
- exclude all rising 4.5kg or more - (nice win system there if you like 1 bet a month;))
- exclude all 3yo fillies - Oaks & the like
- maximum SP $20 (there were no winners over $20 but as a layer I just don't go there)

Selections - 399
Return less 5% comm $562
POT 41%
Winner s/r 14.3%

Not too shabby, someone with a more exhaustive db might want to chip in as I did record a couple of bad losing periods within the 18 months.

[The Ocho]

It depends which "system" you're using but if following Bhagwans first system results then all 4 LSW horses should have been layed which would have resulted in a loss as the winner was $6.08 on Betfair SP.

OR, using the second system

Numbers 2 & 4 were over $6 on Betfair so should both have been layed however number 6 (the winner of the race) was also over $6 on Betfair SP ($6.08). This would also have resulted in a loss in this race for an extra unit than the first system.

Why have you listed only one horse DD?

[Bhagwan]

Hi Darky.
This technique of laying is probably the safest to use.

Divide the runners price into a payout figure.

Example.
Payout fig. say $30
Price say 6.00
30/6 = O/L $5.00

If we get bit = we lose 5.00 x 5/1 (6.00) = 25.00
If it falls over for us - we win $5.00

[Bhagwan]

I will expand betting to price further.

If 1.50 / 30.00 = O/L 20
Liability if it wins 20 x .50 (1.50) = -10.00
$20 profit if it falls over for us.

If 20.0 / 30.00 = O/L 1.50
Liability if it wins 1.50 x 19/1 (20.00) = -19.00
$1.50 profit if it falls over for us.


Its the same technique Bookies use to frame their market when laying the field to their book percentage.

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Bgahwan.
Cheers
darky

[norisk]

Selection today using the criteria I outlined above -

Gosford R6 No2 Straight Albert - there are 2 other ls winners, No's 4&12, however No2 look like will start the shortest.

[norisk]

ouch, got smacked first up;)

[darkydog2002]

Ocho.
"why did I have ONLY 1 horse."
It was a mistake on my part.I was thinking in terms of the other system.
Cheers
darky

[norisk]

Sat 14th

Rosehill R2 - shortest SP of 1,4,7 - likely to be No1. Permit

[Bhagwan]

Results
Fri 13th Jan

Bank $1,000

Bet to 1/10th of bank
Ratchet staking.

MV 3/7
Layed at $8.30 Successful

$100 / 8.30 = O/L 12.00

We win money.

+1.2% Increase on bank.

New Bank 1,012

[Bhagwan]

Using this Lay Plan
LAY PLAN
Lay Bet Price into 1/10th of bank
Lay Bet all LSW
2200m+
Must be priced 6.00+

Sat 14th Jan
Races to target.
Morn R5
Bairn R5
Morph R1
Rose R2

One could try using TAB prices & hope they get matched up in-running with Betfair.

[Bhagwan]

Results
Sat 14th

Bank $1,012

Only bets that qualifier was
Rose R2
No.4 @ 15.30 / 100 = $6.50
No.7 @ 7.60 / 100 = $13.20

Both fell over for us.

Profit $19.70
2% increase on bank.

New Bank $1031.70