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Barny
16th January 2012, 11:53 AM
From stats posted on here the evidence is irrefutable that there's no credibility to applying a blanket number of days between runs that will improve / or should be part of a system. It seems to be one of those myths that continually get busted.

Now having said that, let me say this ..... there are wise people who state that the days between runs should be taken into account, but ONLY when referenced to the individual horse. Some horses like a certain break, so it seems logical to look at when a horse performed well previously, and how many days break it had. Sounds good. eh?

Now having said that, let me say this ..... A wise poster has stated that a horse running in the wet, or a horse that's been flogged by the jockey takes longer to recover than normal. So that puts paid to the scenario above doesn't it?

Now having said that, let me say this ..... wise people, especially one certain poster on this subject, suggests that we avoid entirely all fillies and mares backing up in 7 days, 'coz they're just not physically capable of doing so (they're potential champions if they can this poster suggests).

Now having said all of the above ..... I do know that there are many times a trainer gets frustrated because he simply could not get his / her horse racing within two weeks, and that extra weeks delay has really given the horse no chance at all. I'll give you an example, the racehorse Blackie's last run during the Sporing Carnival. There are many other examples.

So where do we stand?

1) No use taking a blanket approach and applying a fixed number of days between runs.
2) Fraught with danger with far too many variables trying to work out what the best break is for individual horses.

The only thing certain here, is the uncertainty of it all.

I'll find the post and table that provides (supposed) proof about the myth of certain days between runs being better than others.

Comments. BTW, I did love Malcolm Fraser (for those oldies here who've picked that up !! Haha) only 'coz he was the No. 1 Blue Baggers ticket holder and I got his autograph on a limited edition poster in the change rooms after we beat Richmond in '82 GF.

Chrome Prince
16th January 2012, 11:59 AM
Rumour has it, his underwear has been sold on Ebay :D

My thoughts on days between runs, there is a definite advantage with those backing up within 7 days.
Take out the 2YO's and very old horses, make sure they are highly fancied in the market, and there's profit to be had.
The gold lies in the trial winners within 7 days. ;)

Barny
16th January 2012, 12:03 PM
Rumour has it, his underwear has been sold on Ebay :D


How much did you pay for them Chrome Prince? .... and were they already dry cleaned or were they in mint condition?

Chrome Prince
16th January 2012, 12:19 PM
I didn't buy them, I think he did!
No, they weren't dry cleaned, so they certainly weren't in mint condition. :eek:

(Just having a bit of a joke).

TheSchmile
16th January 2012, 01:40 PM
Agreed Barny,

Days since last start can be an excellent filter especially for finding lay opportunities when a horse has shown a distinct disliking for a certain backup period.

The way you've approached this idea is the same way you should approach each different angle, average prize money, course and distance winners etc.
Just about every conceivable angle will show a level stakes loss if every selection is bet, however with a tweak here and there to filter the wheat from the chaff, a profit can be made.

The Schmile

darkydog2002
16th January 2012, 02:19 PM
The Schmile,
The benefits of profiling and the beauty of the Don Scott ratings is all the profiling has been done for you by the experts.
All one really has to work out is do the TC suit and are the ratings for todays TC.
If not find a meeting that is.

Cheers
darky

TheSchmile
16th January 2012, 02:47 PM
All one really has to work out is do the TC suit and are the ratings for todays TC.
s.


Nice one Darky,

There's your tweak to the DS ratings.

Stay disciplined and bet only when TC match the ratings to keep your edge.

The Schmile

darkydog2002
16th January 2012, 03:34 PM
Yes.I keep it that simple.
Cheers
darky