The Old Chestnut LSW

[Barny]

I'm not so sure that LSW are overbet, as has been suggested at times, to a point where they're no longer 'value'. Maybe we need to target which LSW we look at? Those LSW that have a placing prior to their win have a very good strike rate. One publication suggests that a LSW that has won two on end is overbet by the public. Are we that dumb that we only look at the front of the form guide and see that the lst two starts are 11 ????? DOH !!!!! and we miss that the last two runs are 21 or 31 ..... and that results in outstanding value compared to the 11 form ????? Can't have that.

A couple of things I do perceive to be factual are;

LSW win more frequently over middle distances than any other and,
LSW with a win at it's previous start wins more than the combined form of running 2nd or 3rd at it's previous run over middle distances.

A LSW may not have reached it's peak.
A LSW may not have been feeling too good at it's previous run, yet it still wins?
A LSW will have put the horse in front of everyone's eyes and might indicate that the stable (should they be so inclined) cannot hide the horse's chance / ability as they might have prior to the win ..... ergo, it's a goer this time for sure ???? ..... arguable.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Barny,

The LSW puzzle is definitely worth a look case by case.

BePe's selection in the tipping competition, Over Quota on saturday started at very healthy odds, even though it had won its last two starts.

It is true though, that they are generally over bet.

A few questions to ask re last start winners:

Is the horse facing similar conditions today as LS?
Is it likely to get a similar run?
Has it been harshly penalised for the win LS?
Is the horse progressive, e.g. have more wins in it this prep, or was it just because it was fit after 5 or more starts this time in?

The Schmile

[Barny]

I would suggest they would be overbet if they were in a similar race, similar distance, not too harshly treated at the weights etc ..... However, those that are a LSW and maybe are rising in class and distance might be worthy of a look. I'm assuming that the experts would place great emphasis on the class of the race the LSW contested and dismiss it if it's going up in class too much. So, maybe that's true if the nag has had say 5 runs in this time, but what about the one's that have only had a couple.

Everyone 'knows' that those who've had two wins in a row are 'overbet' ..... don't they ????? Well, I'm not so sure !!!

[Barny]

From memory LSW win 18% of races and 13% of LSW starts. You'll find that the percentage of LSW winning races is far greater (muchos far greater !!!) than the standard 18% when you analyse the middle distance races.

Ergo ..... you can forget LSW in sprints, scrub 'em.

Source ..... HSFG 2006 onwards (with a few missing)

[TheSchmile]

Everyone 'knows' that those who've had two wins in a row are 'overbet' ..... don't they ????? Well, I'm not so sure !!!

I'd say many punters wouldn't look at the stat.

The Schmile

[Vortech]

Breakdown of LSW by Distance from 2008 if interested

[darkydog2002]

Hi Vortech,
Have you any fihures for Field Size.?
Cheers
darky

[Vortech]

attached darky

[Bhagwan]

Heres a LSW Plan that's made millions.

I dont mind sharing this because I know the rules will get changed, that's what Punters do and should be encouraged.

45% SR
39% POT

RULES
1200m+
1-7 runners
Price 2.60-4.50


There were 102 selections for the System
There were 46 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 45.1%
There were $141.75 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $39.75 or a percentage profit/loss of 38.97%

The Rules used were : WinPrice >= 2.6 and WinPrice <=4.5 and priceRank < 90 and priceRank = 1 and distance >= 1200 and lastStart = 1 and runners <= 7

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Vortech,
Well thats my theory out the window.
Cheers
darky

[bernie]

Bhagwan, To make it easier you should have mentioned that the LSW must be favourite.

1200m+
Below 7 runners
Price $2.60 - $4.50

[darkydog2002]

They may not be though.

[bernie]

Hi Darky. According to the workout given ( priceRank < 90 and priceRank = 1 ) it can only apply to the favourite.

[Bhagwan]

That's right .
Must be fav, it was supposed to be added.

[darkydog2002]

Ah.Thanks Bernie.
Cheers.

[Barny]

Vortech, I'm assuming your figures have been adjusted for multiple LSW in certain races.