Interesting reading.

[Mark]

This is probably the only thing I have ever read on the BF forum that was in the slightest bit interesting. A lot is aimed at the USA market but all is relevant to punters anywhere.

http://www.sartinmethodology.com/pubs/PsychologyOfWinningPMTR.pdf

[lomaca]

This is probably the only thing I have ever read on the BF forum that was in the slightest bit interesting. A lot is aimed at the USA market but all is relevant to punters anywhere.

http://www.sartinmethodology.com/pubs/PsychologyOfWinningPMTR.pdfI read the book "A day at the races" and I agree with the one comment, "Buck the popular opinion"

I only started to win consistently when I turned my attention to the 75% of horses that are actually not favoureds.

I'm afraid I have to disagree with the popular belief that only 1 or 2 % of punters are consistent winners.

There are quite few more than that, the reason you don't often hear about them is because they don't advertise their success, and why should they?
Even on this forum there are a lot of steady winners.

Good luck to them all!
I always say, if someone can do it we all have a chance, start worrying when none can!

[Mark]

I've always figured on around 5%.
IMHO if someone's not winning regularly these days with all the competition available, then they never will.
Most punters will tell you that they "break even", except for those that keep records.

[Chrome Prince]

I have always been of the opinion that 5% actually make money, but about 1% to 2% make significant money. I mean really big money.
One only has to read some of the insane stuff posted on the Betfair forums by those claiming to pay premium charges, and one can conclude that many are telling porkies.

I agree Mark, the BF forums I've found quite useless and actually much nastier than other places.

[Shaun]

The betfair forums are a source of a amusement, i am still shocked i have not been banned from there with all the **** i go on about.

[Chrome Prince]

Some of the assertions from the pdf are extremely negligent coming from a psychologist.
You can't cure a problem gambler by handing them a winning method.
A problem gambler is a problem gambler, not because he loses, but because he can't stop chasing or can't stop having "other" bets.

Losing is not the problem and to suggest that truckies who have been convicted of fraud offences can be cured by showing them what works, is fantasy.

His other assertions about gamblers being let off, because they had a problem, may have been relevant in the early 90's but is not applicable today.
A magistrate recently told me (not in court, my neighbour) that gambling problems are no longer an excuse, and magistrates are totally fed up with that excuse. They tend to be tougher on anyone who tries this defence.

[norisk]

I had forgotten all about it but I came across that essay maybe 4-5 years ago, maybe longer, & I don't recall having a lot of time for it back then, doubt much has changed.

& Chrome Prince, it does appear from some of the recent sentencing I have seen that yes, the 'gambling addict' defence is not the way to go these days, looks likely to add a year or two to the sentence (not that thats a bad thing).

[Mark]

I think I was looking more at the difference between winners & losers.

[norisk]

There probably is some value to be found there somewhere but at the time I found the whole thing irritating tbh - maybe I was in the middle of a losing run;)

[Puntz]

Illustration:
Question:
A:Why would a judge send a "problem gambler" to prison if that judge has shares with the same TAB the gambler was betting at ?

OR

B:Why WON'T the judge send a "problem gambler" to prison if that judge has shares with the same TAB the gambler was betting at?

B: Because the judge then has to give it all back to pay for the gambler he put in prison!

Solution:
Remove the equation of shares in a TAB.
Pay the taxes to the gov, the TAB take, and give the rest to the winning gambler/s.
Problem solved.

All this malarkey about psychology has it's place for those with delusions, yes that is correct. Remove the delusion by "smashing" it, that means allowing a gambler's self imposed crisis to go on to the point where there is no money to buy bread = hunger = reality.
Gotta eat!

But mathematically speaking, if the pool has a 3-way split ( gov,TAB/Shares then the winning punter gets the crumbs, who really has CAUSED the problem in the first place?

The Judge! cos he is a share holder, he is just as guilty as those who are in party of that "share holders department", he has no real claim to that money cos he has put in no effort to have it in the fist place.
Plus the extra people employed to get the transfer of funds to the judge/shareholder.

The effort/energy came from all those that make up the final event, the winner of the race. What real biziness has a share holder got to with it while they can't even be at the races because they are at their work sending people to prison? None/Zilch.

This illustration is not personal, it's to show a principle, if I had the actual figures it be simple to prove mathematically this is probably correct.

[Bhagwan]

The latest take I have read about problem gamblers is...

Problem gamblers, generally, have low self esteem & have the psychological need to be punished.
Winning or losing does not really come in to it.

Punished?---go figure.

[Puntz]

Yes Bhagwan, "punished", by way of their own making, it will turn back on them, loss of loved ones, etc etc ( I am not including here the one's that go out and rob a bank or those extremes, I'm not educated on those things so I'm out of that debate).
But the one's who owe a credit company, bank etc where it is just a number, more towards the negative as in -$10,000 in dept and with a house mort. or whatever.
That then is a "think" problem that can be solved cos like that write up says, it is not cell based, it's thought based.

The self imposed "punishment" will go down further way past low esteems and whatever other analysis the head shrinks will label it. Way way past all that, to the bottom and then a look in the mirror may say, WAKE UP!
THEN a change may occur, and only then. The only way is up OR rest in the shade of self pity.

On the up cos the "victim" has "seen a light" and passes the old labels of low self esteem, depressive and what ever else, waves at hose labels, say's "Hi there, byeee!" and keeps going.
When they out of that pit, it's a fresh start. I am very sure they will not do what they did that got them down that pit ever again.
( never sell ya marbles, just sit it out and wait, the right time will come and ya roll of the dice will get ya home.)

GA ? well I dunno, they suggest total no gambling. But if it works for some, well and good.
My passion is numbers, not math but numbers on the punt,( even before I discovered a race track, it was marbles at school, cards at home and a few dice games, those types of numbers.)
what makes those numbers "light up" is to intriguing to just let go and decided not to.

However I do agree with the right attitude and discipline the punting game
( horses and trotts for me) is a good win.

Oh BTW, thanks Mark, that was a interesting read.

By all means, if gambling is a problem, get some help, some advice at least from those that have been through a bad time and got back up and even if they got a regular job, that is ok to, nothing wrong with a bit of yakka, nothing wrong with that at all.

[partypooper]

MMmmm, well, I feel a need to respond here, personally, I haven't been in "that place" of being totally out of control, but as a young bloke I was what you would call an "avid" gambler only horses my absolute passion, and dare I say it I seemed to have an "unnatural" gift (sometimes) don't want to bore anyone but just to iterate, I recall one day that I went to the local "betting shop" and placed my only shilling (colloquially called a bob) on the first 6 furlong race on a horse called "Bobsbest" it won at 20-1,

I walked out of that venue with more that 500 QUID+, I'm talking about approx. 47 years ago, so I hope you can imagine the value of that amount of money? well I can tell you that would have bought a nice house.

Well I didn't buy a house (unfortunately) I had great time but in the end it (mostly) went back over the counter, me trying to make 5000 QUID!!

I repeated this kind of idiocy many times, only rarely making the win count, one particular time I bought a Mercedes 280 outright cash, boy did I live it up,
but eventually sold it after a bad run for about half of what it was worth, that's how it goes!

What I'm getting at is that "buzz" is better than ANY drug and I can understand how it could be totally addictive, BUT the message should be that
if that's what you feel you definitely need help!

i.e when that machine tells you that it pays 85% minimum out , what it really means that it takes 15% of every $ that goes in relentlessly! funny thats about the take from the Tote AND the bookies!

[Chrome Prince]

The latest take I have read about problem gamblers is...

Problem gamblers, generally, have low self esteem & have the psychological need to be punished.
Winning or losing does not really come in to it.

Punished?---go figure.

Well, I'm not a psychologist, but I have extensive history in dealing with all types of addicts as part of my job.
There are two types of addicts only.
First type must get their fix everyday by any means possible.
Second type can go days weeks or even months without a fix, but as soon as they start, they cannot stop. (a bender if you will).
There are also combinations of the above, but they usually lean one way or another.
This applies to drugs, alcohol, gambling.
The addiction leads to low self esteem, it doesn't start with low self esteem.
In fact I would suggest that the greatest number of addicts I have dealt with have a common theme, they usually fell from a great height. (in other words, originally they had an increased feeling of self worth.)
That is why addicts become so terribly depressed, they fell from a great height.
The punishment issue is more to do with being stuck in a cycle unable to break free, learned behaviour that is like Groundhog Day.
They become addicted not only to the problem, but to the behaviour.
They are usually well aware of the addiction to the problem, but unaware they are addicted to the behaviour (thinking) as well.

So it's not all doom and gloom, I must say that all of the people who have been through this and come out the other side positively are quite remarkable people who are down to earth and very humble. They are quite exceptional to the average joe without an addiction. They have learned a valuable lesson and realise just how important other aspects of life are.

As I say, this has been only my experience working with hundreds of addicts in recovery centres.

[Dale]

I must say that all of the people who have been through this and come out the other side positively are quite remarkable people who are down to earth and very humble. They are quite exceptional to the average joe without an addiction. They have learned a valuable lesson and realise just how important other aspects of life are.


Agreed, full marks and much respect to those who have taken control of their addiction and turned their lives around.

Im really hard with this and have very little sympathy for gambling addicts but all strength to those that can learn from their mistakes and continue to enjoy the punt.

[TheSchmile]

I like the talk about the 3 r's and the fact that your average system lasts 2.8 days.

The Schmile

[Barny]

Assuming 95% of punters lose
Assuming the TAB / Bookie takeout is 15%

Lat's take a person who's got plenty of money and takes 10K to the races each week, or to the TAB, or wherever. That's $500k turnover p/a, with a return of $425k (85% of his $500k). Yeah ..... really?

There's a lot of punters who contribute much, much more than the 15% takeout week in week out, and even tho' the figures show an 85% return it just doesn't tell the true story, does it. There's an abundance of money out there for the smarties to help themselves to, and I believe they do, and it's these punters who help balance the books to 85%.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Barny,

Going on these figures, 95% of the 85% remaining in the pool is mug money.

The Schmile

[Chrome Prince]

I don't think any gambling addict can enjoy the punt without returning to addiction.
Just like an alcoholic or drug addict.
One should consider that these people are not necessarily stupid, nor are they weak. They have a mental illness which they cannot control, just like people who suffer from bipolar and go on spending sprees.
They cannot control their addiction.

But there is a distinct line between an addict and someone who is just losing on the punt and can turn his fortunes around with a little more effort or discipline.

Chronic problems are very difficult to overcome and a large majority are never able to overcome them.
But a very wise person once told me, everybody has something to deal with or overcome in their lives, even if it isn't quite as visible as the problems of an addict.

[Dale]

I was addicted to smoking but gave up after 25 years, 3 years down now.

That was an addiction in the true sense of the word.

Very fine line between someone claiming their irresponsible gambling that is destroying their family and causing no end of grief to those around them is an addiction to those members of society that have no moral compass.

[peter m]

..... I recall one day that I went to the local "betting shop" and placed my only shilling (colloquially called a bob) on the first 6 furlong race on a horse called "Bobsbest" it won at 20-1,
What part of the Old Dart are you from partypooper? I'm from up North originally myself, where men are men and the sheep... etc etc. Been many years since I was back there though.

[moeee]

Very fine line between someone claiming their irresponsible gambling that is destroying their family and causing no end of grief to those around them is an addiction to those members of society that have no moral compass.

Walking past a TAB on your way to pay the rent and some bills , and choosing to enter the TAB and gamble and try to double the rent money is NOT irresponsible.
I would call that an Addiction.
Irresponsible might be purchasing a New Flat Screen with the money.

[Chrome Prince]

We are all going to have different ideas on this subject, because it's somewhat touchy.
Either we know of someone who has caused problems for others, or maybe someone feels it hits home. I'm not casting judgements, but you'll find that the general public's perception of gamblers as "losers" is that they know or have experienced the fallout from someone with an addiction.

Addicts are not by nature irresponsible, because for the most part they are devasted by what has happened in the cold light of day, they feel remorse and chastise themselves vowing never to do it again.
Unfortunately they have no control.

Even the greatest experts are only starting to unveil some of the intricasies of addiction and new evidence is coming to light about signals to the brain and seratonin.

Why is it that some alcoholics aren't addicted to drugs?
Why is it that some gambler's aren't addicted to alcohol?

Of course there are some unfortunate people who are addicted to all three and addicted to eating and addicted to shopping and addicted to sex.

But the above questions have experts baffled at this point.

It is a very grey area and unfortunately the public has little understanding or time for addicts, because all they see are the actions and not the disease.

In the example of irresponsibility, I know of a woman who is addicted to shopping and will come home with a widescreen tv and not pay her rent.
That is her addiction.
I couldn't class her as irresponsible, she feels great remorse.
She thinks about shopping constantly, it consumes her day.
As soon as money comes in, it's like she won lotto, not got wages she worked for.
There is something malfunctioning in her brain making her view money in a different way.
And she cannot control it.

Years ago I was a sales rep on the road using my own car, we had just rented a house and had a new baby.
My exwife would rush to the bank on pay day and buy up big, leaving us no money for two weeks and no petrol for the car.
She would borrow off her parents and the cycle would continue every month.
We are no longer together for other reasons, but I see her regularly and in 20 years, she hasn't changed a bit.
In fact her new husband rang me up distraught, and I tried to give him some advice.

Drugs alcohol and gambling are just a few of the more renowned addictions, there are a great deal many more that people manage to hide better.

Irresponsible, are those that do things and just don't care.

[Dale]

As soon as money comes in, it's like she won lotto, not got wages she worked for.
There is something malfunctioning in her brain making her view money in a different way.
And she cannot control it.



Think I might suffer from this myself, every time I look around my money seems to be gone lol.

Seriously though this whole thing is not something everyone is ever going to see eye to eye on, as many as there are that think people dont have a full understanding of addiction there would be as many who think the powers that be are too soft and quick to excuse bad social behaviour as addiction.

End of the day there should be a campaign to promote the healthy use of horse racing as a past time and a hobby that doesnt neccessarily mean the player is addicted or is someone to question, i bet every single one of us here has had the looks or the silence when they reveal they like horse racing.

Cheers

[Shaun]

If you asked 100 people whats the difference between these 3 professions and what one would be the safest option, i know what over 50% would say.

Professional Punter (horse racing)
Professional Sports Handicapper
Professional Stock Market Trader

[Barny]

Far too easy to judge isn't it Chrome Prince. We all do it unfortunately, some to a lesser degree than others ..... great posts.

As to the difference between stock market trader, sports handicapper and professional horse punter

I would categorically say the SAFEST IN ORDER;

Pro Horse Punter
Sports Handicapper
Stock Market Trader

....... my reason for having the stock market trader at the bottom of the list is that the enormous sums of money involved bring about the most elaborate ways of thieving money and involve the "smartest" minds in the world.

The difference is simply the amount of money involved and horse racing doesn't start Global WARS !!! Stock markets do !!!!! Stock market manipulation, oil shortages - WARS ...... Did you know that ALL THE GOLD EVER MINED IN HISTORY WOULD FIT IN AN AVERAGE 3 BEDROOM HOUSE !!!!!

[Chrome Prince]

Seriously though this whole thing is not something everyone is ever going to see eye to eye on, as many as there are that think people dont have a full understanding of addiction there would be as many who think the powers that be are too soft and quick to excuse bad social behaviour as addiction.


Believe it or not, I think both points are valid.
The Justice system is flawed at it's very foundation.
Why are drug baron's getting light sentences when they are pushing the problem?
Accused are making it very difficult for genuine addicts, because they are using the addict defence and it has worn thin with magistrates.
Addicts who refuse help, should be jailed.