New System

[stoney]

I am new to this forum and I am hoping that someone will be able to test this system for me. It is base around Sat Metro meeting in Bris, Syd and Melb. The rules are
No 2 or 3 yr old races
Must have finished 1st- 5th at their last start in a non sat metro race
Must have a winning strike rate of 32% or more
Uni Tab rating of 91 or better
Must have $11.00 of shorter in the betting last start
Must $21.00 or shorter pre post for current race

Many Thanks

[jimmyz]

Hey stoney :) No Adelaide or Perth, system no work there?

[Barny]

stoney, I can't run this thru any data base for you but I'll give you my thoughts based on my research here.


No 2 or 3 yr old races
stock standard rule, mainly 'coz they're unpredictable


Must have finished 1st- 5th at their last start in a non sat metro race
Yup, that should add value, I like it, it's different. The strike rate will be low however.


Must have a winning strike rate of 32% or more
This is a worry ..... why exactly 32%? sound slike backfitting to suit past results.


Uni Tab rating of 91 or better
Not qualified to offer an opinion as I haven't studied ratings at all.


Must have $11.00 of shorter in the betting last start
Fair enough, but it was in a non-metro based race, so it might not indicate too much, but again, it's different and will add value.


Must $21.00 or shorter pre post for current race
The $21 is going to show a low strike rate. I think 80% ??? of winners are pre-post up to $11.00 ..... not too sure tho'

All in all, I like what you've put up 'coz it's different. I reckon the S/R would be really, really low and the DOWNER would be that if your system selects a horse with ability "the market" won't give you the price you need to go close to winning on level stakes. It's worthy of following and / or tweaking.

This advice is worth exactly what you paid for it ..... DYOR.

[TheSchmile]

Nice comments Barny, :)

Can someone with a database help out Stoney?

The Schmile

[jose]

Stoney, check out this site, it may not have all the stuff you require but it is quite informative anyhow.

http://testyoursystem.000space.com/TestSystem.php

Cheers.

[stoney]

Hi Barny

Thanks for the comments. Just with the winning strike rate it is 32% or greater ( not 32% exactly )

Jose I will check out that link thanks

[partypooper]

Re: last start, it non SATURDAY Metro, or non metro as barny took it?

i.e. it could be Metro,as long as it was not SATURDAY?

my 2 cents worth, LSFP, I would say within 3.5 lengths of winner last start, regardless of finishing position. i.e. a 10 length second, to me is far worse than a 2 length 10th.

[Dale]

I dont know that the last start finishing position rule actualy adds anything to the system.

Its one of those feel good rules, doesnt always mean it helps.

[partypooper]

Dale, you could be right but purely on a statistical basis, 80% of all winners ran within 3.5 lengths of the winner last start (or won of course)

[Dale]

Thats a different kettle of fish and a strong statistic, would be good to see the %'s and return on those within that margin who finished in the top 5 last start compared to those who didnt.

[partypooper]

One that I've been meaning to investigate, is the number of races won and any Profit with a last start winner in races where,

there was only 1 LSW
" 2 LSW
" 3 LSW

etc etc. i.e. is there a point where it is profitable to back em all?

Sorry, stoney, off on a tangent,but this is what happens with discussion eh?