Near and Far

[AngryPixie]

Is anybody doing anything imaginative with the Betfair SP Near and Far prices?

Sometime in the past I'd used these as in-running trading points but I haven't had a look at this of late.

[AngryPixie]

Those were the days.

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=16985

[Raven]

I find it cute how you and Chrome got excited over the prospect of SP & In-play in Aus markets, expecting UK style liquidity I suppose :p

[AngryPixie]

Raven, for a few weeks there it was like a money tree. May be worth having another look at and refining.

SP on Aus races was *VERY* exciting. I still get tingles thinking about it :D

[The Ocho]

Haha. I just tried that near/far price thing on Ipswich race 5 and the horse won me $26 backing it at $8.8 and laying it at 4.5 in running for $5 each. :D

I really should have hedged it at the 4.5 but a good first up result.

[Chrome Prince]

I find it cute how you and Chrome got excited over the prospect of SP & In-play in Aus markets, expecting UK style liquidity I suppose :p

I'm like the late Big Kev - still excited.
SP has been the only product I use since.
It's also the only product that I can bot and earns me profit every month.

[The Ocho]

4 out of 4 races backed before start and layed in running at the FAR price. Not bad for me (only minimum $5 stakes though).

A bit early yet and probably was one of those things but I might try it out early on in tomorrows racing instead of trading to see what happens for the first half hour or hour.

[Raven]

I'm like the late Big Kev - still excited.
SP has been the only product I use since.
It's also the only product that I can bot and earns me profit every month.
No complaints from me. My SP lays this year are showing a profit of around 30% so far. It seems to me that some of the value is gone (especially at the fave end).

Second King BFSP $1.49. :) Top fluc would have been a lot more than that surely.

[mattio]

This Near and Far betting is something I haven't seen before, how do you choose which horse to back and lay? Do you choose the favourite or all horses?

[AngryPixie]

Mattio

I'd set the market refresh on your bot to a second or shorter and watch quite a few races before you had much of a go. That will give you a feel for the horses that are best.

Don't do this in markets with low liquidity. In fact these days I don't do market based selections on any races unless there has been at least $30,000 traded on the market. It's one of the Pixie Axioms.

Also don't assume the in-running market has any correlation with the pre-race market. That's a big mistake. They are two completely different markets.

[Bhagwan]

Please, stop calling me Surley

[mattio]

Cheers AP, I think I'll look a little further into it.

[Chrome Prince]

It seems to me that some of the value is gone (especially at the fave end).


g'day Raven.
Your observations are quite correct.
Whether this is the result of crossmatching or just smarter markets I'm not sure.
What I do know, is that the markets have matured and much value has gone from favourites and longshots.
This is the general trend, not taking into account individual mispriced horses of course.
It depends on the pricing of the market, but there is definite value still in certain circumstances at certain prices.
It's just that favourite value has all but disappeared when taking them as a group.

[AngryPixie]

So let's have a play.

NEWC01 Fern Hill Went in at 1.96 and out at 1.76

CAUL02 Hot Spin (in 3.05 out at 1.1 :eek: )

[The Ocho]

Hi AngryPixie

What do you mean by went in at 3.05 out at 1.1? Also, are you hedging or just having a free bet?

I'm giving this a go today and notice the far prices are moving all over the place. No sooner do I get myself set on a horse that the far price moves above the near price on occasions.

I've only done 4 races so far and all have been matched in running (a couple of races with 2 runners) but I'm needing to shift the lay bet up to try and match the far price.

[AngryPixie]

So I'm using what I mentioned in that post of a few years ago.

Im backing (going in) the only horse in the field that has a far price below 2 at the 5 minutes before start point, and placing a keep hedge (going out) at that far price. If the total traded on the market is below $30,000 I'll wait till it reachs that amount and use the near far figure then as mentioned above. Added that bit today.

I don't care if the price jumps around after. I don't change anything.

My lay wasn't matched on Hot Spin so it was a nice win bet for me.

This is very speculative and I suspect it will work better early in the day. You could possibly forget the hedging bit and just use the numbers to back.

[AngryPixie]

WODG01 no bet as two runners with a far price below 2 at the $30,000 point.

[AngryPixie]

NEWC02 no bet as no runners below 2 at $30,000 point

[AngryPixie]

CAUL03 Hoylonny is looking like a possibility.

Yes in at 6.4 out at 1.48 (bit dicey)

[AngryPixie]

I'll jump ship while I'm still ahead but you get the idea. If you look at the numbers and have a think about what they represent there's some interesting ways to profit from them.

Have fun

[The Ocho]

Bad race for me on that horse and another -10 :(

[AngryPixie]

Maybe you could look at it the other way. Is a fav with a far price higher than the second and third favs near or actual price a bit iffy?

[Bhagwan]

This seems to jag a number of winners.

Target at all runners <=$10

Ignore Fav

Target those runners where the FAR price is half of NEAR price.

Back at current price
Lay at $1.00 -1.50 of Back price & keep in-running.

Betting same amount on each.

There can be 1-3 qualifiers , bet them all.


4 min or less till jump.

Example
Back 10.00 at 6.00
Lay 10.00 at 5.00 or less. Keep in-running.
Diff 1.00
1.00 x 10.00 = Prof +10.00 if it wins.
If it loses - Break even, free bet

What often happens is that they shorten in running & a number get up & win.
If they get matched & fall over , we break even, thus a free bet.

[AngryPixie]

Thanks Bhag's. That far price tickles my fancy a bit.