Systems Fear

[Barny]

A couple of posts here, including partypoopers, indicate to us all that good systems can run well for years then fall over. All the smarties on here say to develop a good system

it has to be logical,
have a few rules,
and probably include a rule out of the 'square' so to speak,
& there's no point doing what everyone else is doing for obvious reasons
Now I've got a decent system almost developed which incorporates the top two 'bullet' points, and one other rule that eliminates some contenders, but not others, if that makes any sense ..... race type based rules.

Am I wasting my time ?? The Rev. DD also said recently something along the lines of you're better off using systems for fun and putting you're money in the bank .....

Do systems have a 'life span' ..... Are we operating on a bed of 'shifting sands' (one poster might smile with that reference !!) ..... LSW 7 days with a couple of rule keeps popping up as a goodie, Ahjays systems was good, and many others using many years of data. Have these systems folded too ??

Would seriously love to hear comments.

Is this like the sharemarket in that once you've found the 'holy grail' so has everyone esle, and therefore, you lose again OR, do you find a logical method and continue with it in a discipined manner using a decent staking plan ??

Help ...................... please.

[darkydog2002]

Find a logical method based on good ratings ala r+S /Unitab/Good form last 3 - 4 races in current campaign/Senior Jockey aboard etc
Go with 1st race Favs in the main (theres plenty of these each day) and STOP AT A WINNER.(If your 1st selection loses STOP FOR THE DAY)

Cheers

[darkydog2002]

Another very good system ran 3rd in the "Best System In Australia " Competition run by PPM a few years ago.
A regular supply of winners - many at great prices.
I,ve already posted it in the forum some time ago.

Cheers

[Mark]

Am I wasting my time ??



In a word..............Yes.

[AngryPixie]

Barny

Anybody can come up with a system that at some point will make profits. The trick is knowing that all systems are disposable and all will eventually fail.

[Shaun]

I think the answer is all systems have a lifespan, you need to constantly monitor this and decide when the time is right to make changes.

Mark is a numbers man so systems with always get a negative review by him, but he will also agree even what he does still requires monitoring and not all angles will continue in to the future.

Mark, remember way back with the first risk free system put up by yourself and Allanby?

It was the bookies that put an end to that one.

No matter what path you follow you must also be researching the next path.

[norisk]

Agree purely mechanical systems probably all end up in the bin at some stage - imho one cannot make a go of this game without paying attention to what is right before our very nose - the market. Ignore that at your peril;)

[darkydog2002]

Agree with all the posts.
The reason why a system should be based around good ratings.
Even if you based a system around getting a better price than the lowest asessed price at r+s you,d have to do well in the longterm.

Unfortunately many punters go into this game undercapitalized.

Cheers
darky

[garyf]

The reason why a system should be based around good ratings.

Exactly Darky whether they be speed weight or class ratings.
Then the mechanical approach can start like,
Market position (odds)
Race type.
State.
Cntry metro prov
Track conditions.
Distance etc etc.

The problem starts when you use these factors,
And others to determine the selection criteria first,
Rather than second as profitable filters.

There is a company out there does actually have a couple,
That do make profits albeit it very small when last monitered,
By Punters Choice (Before they shutdown)

I believe this site still advertises them as being profitable.

Would love to list them but you know what will happen then.
T.O.U.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Boy oh boy!

Systems never work?
Systems can never have a long lifetime?

The problem is that most systems have too many rules, so you are relying on the results of exact filtered criteria to reproduce.
Added to this is that often the profit is gained from anomoly outsiders, so the chances of continued success are remote.

Systems do work, but they must be completely logical, there must be a specific reason for the parameters of the filter, not just "that's the band that's profitable".

Handicappers use systems, bookmakers use systems, they are ratings or market systems, they have to arrive at the ratings or prices via a set of rules.
The rules might be quite different to "forum rules", but they are a systematic approach.

Some of my systems have been going for twelve years and are still successful. Most of the systems I post on the forum are new ideas, or system tests, they are not the core systems I rely on day to day.
I'm always looking to value add to the systems in my toolbox.

I would say, I have developed the skill to be able to put most systems in the rubbish category just by looking at the rules and results.
Now and then I stumble onto a gem.

Possibly the most important skill is being able to identify the difference between a downward trend and a changing market.
But with each metamorphasis of the betting market comes new opportunities, that 5 years ago weren't there.

My advice is to find an approach that suits you, that's probably more important than the approach itself.
I've tried Mark's way and couldn't handle the sheer nature of it.
Tried The Ocho's trading and couldn't crack it.
That's not a criticism of them or their approaches, in fact I have great respect for anyone who can do it.
It just doesn't suit my style.

There are others who have one or two very large bets a week, again not me.

Find what you enjoy, what doesn't get you stressed, and do it as often as you can is my advice. These days with the odds advantages, unless you're undisciplined, you really can't do too much damage, unless you plough headlong into a losing system with staking plans ;)

[AngryPixie]

imho one cannot make a go of this game without paying attention to what is right before our very nose - the market. Ignore that at your peril

Indeed. Study the market for long enough and you can toss your formguides, rating and databases in the bin.


The rules might be quite different to "forum rules", but they are a systematic approach.


Having a system (in the context Barny was referring to) and using a systematic approach are two distinct things.

Possibly the most important skill is being able to identify the difference between a downward trend and a changing market.


Absolutely. There's profits to be made in both directions. The stock market punters have been doing it for ages.

[Chrome Prince]

Indeed. Study the market for long enough and you can toss your formguides, rating and databases in the bin.

I wouldn't exactly go that far.
You are quite correct, there are many market based approaches, that generate profit on their own.
Ratings and databases can add a lot of value to those approaches.

For example, not all $2.00 into $1.70 horses are the same.
Backing them all might be profitable at best tote or BFSP.
But really delving into race replays, trials, stewards reports, formguides, ratings and databases can really avoid many losing bets, which in turn generates greater profit.

If one can extract why a movement is happening and make a decision based on facts we have rather than facts we don't have, then at least we can rule out a percentage of furphy's.


Having a system (in the context Barny was referring to) and using a systematic approach are two distinct things.


I think it depends on your definition of a system.
A system does not necessarily have to select one two or three horses a race.
It doesn't necessarily have to rely on form filters.
In fact in my book any set of filters is a system.

Perhaps we each have our own interpretation of what a system actually is?

I do not for example think a system is based on staking, that's yet another distinct thing as you say.

[norisk]

Perhaps we each have our own interpretation of what a system actually is?


I suspect this is the case.

[AngryPixie]

A system does not necessarily have to select one two or three horses a race.
It doesn't necessarily have to rely on form filters.
In fact in my book any set of filters is a system.

Perhaps we each have our own interpretation of what a system actually is?

I do not for example think a system is based on staking, that's yet another distinct thing as you say.

Yes any set of filters would be part of a system in my book also. Not sure I agree about staking though. My interpretation of Wikipedia's definition of a system is that a system has STRUCTURE - we'd call them filters. INTERCONNECTIVITY - i.e. if filter 'a' is true then we move on to filter 'b' otherwise we move on to filter 'c', and BEHAVIOUR - i.e. what we do. Staking could arguably be placed here.

On the whole though I think racings systems are poorly or impatiently researched; as suggested above system users tend not to have a "business plan" i.e. what do I do if things turn against me; unrealistic user expectations as to how they'll profit from the system; and many a far too complex.

[Puntz]

I remember Mark's system, it was good to use cos frankly it needed no computer once you got some experience.
It was a good starting point, basic.

My "system", has not changed one bit for well over 10 years. I have not seen it posted anywhere on any racing forum yet, so I am not aware if anyone else uses it.
Does it work? Does it profit? and Does it lose?
Yes to all 3, it's HOW one plays their "system".

The point is, look for what is comfortable with you.

[Vortech]

The horse market is a little like the stock exchange. New information is always coming to hand and the times change.

In order to make money betting on horses, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public

In reality long-term if you put many hours into the horses you can make 5-10% POT. Its the fun element that keeps us coming back otherwise you might as well buy an investment property.

The difference between success and failure is small. Therefore you need to continually work to maintain your edge and continually work to improve your performance.

Successful punters think in terms of chances., not fancies and certainties. They try to assess the true chance of a horse in a race and bet on the basis of their evaluations.

Good luck

[Chrome Prince]

In order to make money betting on horses, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public

That's an extremely good summary of it.


In reality long-term if you put many hours into the horses you can make 5-10% POT. Its the fun element that keeps us coming back otherwise you might as well buy an investment property.

Not entirely agreeing here. You can't buy an investment property with $1,000.
Make that into turnover of $500,000.
If POT was only 5% = $25,000 profit.
$1,000 becomes $26,000, the following year, etc etc etc.
No investment property is going to reap those kind of rewards with such small capital.
This is what brings me to this game......and of course the love of the spectacle that is racing. ;)

[Mark]

Me too.
Pretty sure I've told this before. I started my Betfair a/c with $3000, promptly lost most of it, was down to $500, and haven't looked back since. Have copped a weekly wage for roughly 7 years ever since from $500.

[TWOBETS]

This is a top question you pose Barny. Here's my thoughts.......

I was thinking that maybe we could group these systems and this is what I came up with. ( You've got to do something when there's ************ all races )

I've been down all three of the following roads and I can only make one work. Not knocking the other two, just that I can't make them work.

The three system roads.....

1) Purely mathematics and divvies....maybe Marks' forte? This method is unlikely to suffer over time because dividends by their very nature take all things into account.

2) The approach that maximizes form analysis and then seeks to find best odds to make a profit. This method is subject to the availability of odds and may suffer from competition as punters become better informed.

3) Grail territory. These are the systems that have such an advantage (usually strike rate, less often a repeatable high price concept) that an impressive profit is gleaned whatever the odds available. These little beauties have so much leeway built in that you can look at years of profit with no tweaking.

Time to cook the evening meal now so I'll toddle off. love to hear from those making this game work as to where they fit into the scheme.

[Puntz]

the three system roads.....

1) Purely mathematics and divvies....maybe Marks' forte? This method is unlikely to suffer over time because dividends by their very nature take all things into account.


sort of,
I would add strategy with mathematics and divvies.

[pjr]

Pure mathematics is what works for me. No form analysis, just statistics and probability. Take the emotion and decision making out by using an automated bot.

[Chrome Prince]

There are so many derivations within those three, but I reckon I'm in the first category.
It is very hard to make this game pay from a punting angle, those that do are yards ahead of the field.
Crunching numbers is my thing, I like the challenge of finding viable methods using strike rate and average odds.
It's actually a much more complicated matrix than it appears.
Added to that, unless you're standing next to the horse, one has to realise that there will always be someone else who knows more about it than you do.
Sometimes, one will see value, snap it up, only to see the price blow like a north wind.
Vice versa.
It's the overall picture that counts.

[TWOBETS]

What a cracker thread Barny. Here's another little separation that has had me up at nights.

There are those that believe you MUST look for value or you simply cannot make it work and there are those that believe the dividend is the most accurate representation of a horses chances.

At the end of the day those of us lucky enough to have a winning system in their pockets are in essence beating the general opinion of the masses because that is the nature of dividends.

BUT.....here I am using a clever little collection of simple rules that has a strike rate that few would believe and yet it doesn't work if I ignore the popular opinion of the masses. In some people's eyes I would be looking for poor value.

Personally, I feel this simply underlines the fact that this must be the most sophisticated, complicated and wonderful way to make a cracker.

[pjr]

Twobets

It sounds like everyone in this thread are using a very similar system/strategy. Now wouldn't that be funny.

[Puntz]

The underlying fear, that is fear of losing the tools we use because let's say a day of a electrical storm blots out the ability to have the computers working, the race venue running on just enough emergency power to keep the pies warm and the beer cold, (it happened one day at Cheltenham) and the bookies were still taking bets, they were "blind" to cos there was no tote screen.

If that was a scenario this Saturday, what are the options, what trump card would a punter have up their sleeve to get out in front and take advantage of the situation?

If one has a "trump card system", what would it be?

I was there at Cheltenham when the power blackout happened.
It was a day at the races that was rare in a sense, a rawness, no electricity, yet the races still went on and the bookies still took bets and the prices seemed to have a aura of good Value that day.
No one had a tote screen to look at.

Does anyone remember the days with no tote screen in the betting ring because the technology was not there at the time?

What "system" did the punter of that era have then?

[gunny72]

I recently read a newspaper article about a punter who bets millions each week at several Australian TABs, mainly with the Tasmanian TAB, or at least this is where the information for the article came from (and it was I believe originally his home state). He also punts with overseas totes. This punter has staff working for him. He says that he uses probabilities based on form methods that are well known and freely available. He makes a massive income and is quite wealthy from his punting. I assume he bets according to the Woolworth's principle and has high turnover with small profit margins. Someone else employed an actuary to try to replicate his approach but without success. He makes a point of being discreet about his wealth, rather than being a traditional flamboyant punter.

The point relevant to this thread is that he has a successful system which is based on sound form analysis (ratings), and calculation of the chances of horses (odds). He has obviously worked out a good algorithm to decide where to make his cut off point in the ratings so as to make an edge in his favour.

He says he has made errors, some bad. For example, he bet against Makybe Diva to loose her last Melbourne Cup. His excuse was that he laid his bet before they watered the track!

I have two issues with his punting. Firstly, he has a direct computer connection with the TAB and he bets at the last minute, which makes it very difficult for ordinary punters to assess the market for value. Secondly, because he is a big bettor he gets incentives which amount to a reduced percentage of the take out, which ordinary punters do not.

Anyway, for this thread it seems a successful system in the long haul needs good analysis of each horse's chances plus a willingness to take a small POT, and of course a little help from the TAB.

[Chrome Prince]

He says that he uses probabilities based on form methods that are well known and freely available. He makes a massive income and is quite wealthy from his punting. I assume he bets according to the Woolworth's principle and has high turnover with small profit margins. Someone else employed an actuary to try to replicate his approach but without success.

A very good point gunny, but if you had his money and attracted the rebates he does, and could manipulate the markets as he does, you couldn't help but make a low POT but huge profit.

It is well documented in the press how he manages to profit by his rebates and short priced horses for the place.
It is not about the system, it is about the prices he achieves.
The system identifies what he will have a go at, but without rebates and manipulation, he'd be struggling just as much as the next punter to make a profit.

Put this up against Mr Read who used his own ratings to make a profit because the actual ratings defied the market and it's no contest.

[Bhagwan]

Yes , I agree there Chrome.

With a number of these guys , including the ones in the US , they say if it was not for the rebates they receive, then their punting exercise would not be nearly as profitable.

In some instances, they would only have to break even at average, before rebate results, to show a profit.
Because once the rebate kicks in .
Bingo!
They are now in profit.

[norisk]

Combination of mostly 1) & a little of 2)

But I often wonder if I have taken the more difficult route, as I can honestly say I do not recall the last time I went to the races with just a pen & a bit of cash, paid $5 for a racebook & came home with less in my pocket than I went with.

If I could find a way to get myself to the races most days of the week I reckon I would have this game down cold...loan of a helicopter anyone;)

[AngryPixie]

The underlying fear, that is fear of losing the tools we use because let's say a day of a electrical storm blots out the ability to have the computers working ...

Puntz makes a good point here. Part of a systems structure are the non-racing elements such as power, availability of data, access to tools, etc. How many systems are based on being able to access data from one source? If Racing and Sports shutdown tomorrow many here are probably out of business. This is a system failure. I drive to my cousins wedding in the country and don't have time to put my bet's on therefore missing a winner that will turn my profit around for the month. This is a system failure. Similarly the power fails at home or the Betfair API has troubles and I miss that important winner. This is a system failure.

You can protect yourself to some degree by having multiple data sources; run your operations from multiple sites; and, maybe even have a partner to place your bets when you are unavailable (bots make good partners ;) ). These things would all be in the business plan.

The most vulnerable element of your system is you, and more specifically what's going on between your ears. I suspect this is where most fail - operator error.

[AngryPixie]

I can honestly say I do not recall the last time I went to the races with just a pen & a bit of cash, paid $5 for a racebook & came home with less in my pocket than I went with.

Who goes to the races? That's wierd, crazy talk :eek: :D

[AngryPixie]

Here are a couple of books that have made me think more broadly on the subject of system failure

"Why Things Bite Back" (http://www.amazon.com/Why-Things-Bite-Back-Consequences/dp/0679747567/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1330468164&sr=8-1)

"Inviting Disaster ..." (http://www.amazon.com/Inviting-Disaster-ebook/dp/B0018ND83Y/ref=tmm_kin_title_0?ie=UTF8&m=A24IB90LPZJ0****&qid=1330468296&sr=1-1)

Enjoy. There's some really good non-racing "racing" books available :)

[norisk]

Who goes to the races? That's wierd, crazy talk :eek: :D


I know AngryPixie:eek: & probably one of the main reasons 95% (or whatever it is) do their dough each & every week

I mean, I haven't been in a TAB for better part of a 15 years or so (a few pub tabs don't count), but when I did I just used to lose day after day, & as soon as I started going back to the races on a regular basis, the opposite happened, go figure.

Now, about that chopper;)

[darkydog2002]

Yep.Nothing like paying through the nose for every little thing including 2 day old cold pies and flat beer ta get the old brain cells working not ta mention blxxdy old Catholic Priests trampling on ya footsies ta get a bet on.
Ah.The Race track.

[Chrome Prince]

No Risk, as long as you don't mind a pink chopper, I hear Geoffrey Edelsten has one going very cheap ;)

And you made remember the late Reg Ansett, who used to fly from his property in Mount Eliza to his helipad in Melbourne.
He used to wave hello to the people below every single day.
Some years after he passed away they subdivided his property into a housing estate. Originally I was lucky enough to visit it, and it was one of the most beautiful estates I'd ever seen.

[norisk]

darkydog, things have improved marginally over the years but we probably would agree that the Racing Industry really needs to be grabbed by the scruff of the neck & dragged into the 21st century. It seems this is beginning to happen, whether its all too late time will tell, but I do worry that the powers that be have missed the boat big time. That said I still love the 'track':)



chrome, I remember that chopper well, probably would have to change my wardrobe to suit;)

[TheSchmile]

Hi Norisk,

I completely agree with you!

For instance, in the Moonee Valley Members area, the decor is hideous to say the least. Off cream walls meet speckled carpet that was seemingly purchased at a closing down sale in the late 80's. A fresh lick of paint and some cutting edge design would make it attractive for a Friday night outing for the 18-35 year old category of next generation punters. Right now, it's more like a bad RSL experience (and this is being a little harsh on your average Razzle Dazzle)

Sex it up a little will you!!! There are plenty of options for a Friday night knees up and I believe racing is a fantastic night out. Agreed, the 'powers that be' need to wake up and look around the place.

The Schmile

[xanadu]

Yeah and ensure they have a disco after the last race where the PYT's("pretty young things") can display their "wares"......!
It is a truism....where the PYT's go invariably young "bucks(men) will follow!

Cheers.

[stugots]

.....

[TheSchmile]

Hi fellas,

I'm not talking rock bands, dj's and all that b*****ks.

I merely think a more modern atmosphere to enjoy the racing would be great.

Less RSL, more 'Melbourne chic'....:)

Save the concerts for the Domain.

The Schmile

[xanadu]

u r a "dinosaur" mate......u r stuck in the 50-60's.
Who are the big spenders today...."Gen Y" or are you so out of touch that you haven't grasped this reality?
Also, I believe the 21st century facilities of some of our race-clubs are under-utilised. Their marketing dept should be targeting weddings, conferences which provide turnover for otherwise "quiet" periods.
In other words these facilities should be active every day of the week.

Cheers.

[Puntz]

I merely think a more modern atmosphere to enjoy the racing would be great.

No more long black in a paper cup take-away?

[The Ocho]

Many race clubs utilize their facilities as often as they can.

I've been to both my daughters graduation nights at Caulfield race course, many exhibitions at a number of race courses including Caulfield, Sandown and Mornington here in Melbourne to name a few.

[AngryPixie]

Race track attendance has certainly become very seasonal. I know Caulfield (perhaps due to it's location and easy public transport) manages to attract quite a few non-racing events. They are big buildings and big spaces though and you wonder how much need there is for this type of space given the better equiped purpose built event spaces that are available.

You wonder how Moonee Valley hangs on. If one was to go that would surely be it.

[xanadu]

u r right mate, I, personally have had many enjoyable days at that track and likewise M.V. so I have no complaints.
There are so many options for the big spending "Gen Y," rather arrogant(imo) "highflyers" that I personally don't want to be a part of it.

Cheers.

[The Ocho]

Combination of mostly 1) & a little of 2)

But I often wonder if I have taken the more difficult route, as I can honestly say I do not recall the last time I went to the races with just a pen & a bit of cash, paid $5 for a racebook & came home with less in my pocket than I went with.

If I could find a way to get myself to the races most days of the week I reckon I would have this game down cold...loan of a helicopter anyone;)
I reckon you should take a couple of weeks off (I assume you're working) and follow the roadshow around the state. I'm not sure where you're from but in Victoria you would have a race meeting to go to every day (except maybe Mondays).

You could clean up. :)

[Chrome Prince]

Yes I have been to a number of functions at Caulfield as well, like graduations etc.
In fact their facilities are excellent.
I think the problem lies all in the marketing.
Their marketing vision is quite confused and is not hitting the spot.

For example: the free day that Black Caviar had at Caulfield was well known amongst racing circles, some others knew of it, but they certainly didn't market it well enough nor capitalize enough on it.

I also think they need to separate the events audience from the racing audience.
At present they are attracting a majority of audiences that are binge drinking party animals who will be there until they have responsibilities and mortgages.
They are also not regular racegoers.

It seems they've given up on regular crowds and are looking to make the dough in one week a year with sponsorships and over priced entry and booze.

They forget that the binge goers will never go more than once a year and have it set in the back of their minds that going to the races is very expensive before they even have a bet, if they ever do.

I agree, get that generation into the venues for concerts, parties, weddings, other functions.
The whole racing concept is something entirely different.

But then again with all the anti gambling ads, and all the anti gambling warnings between every single race, is it any wonder people turn off.
Maybe it helps some people, but it destroys my enjoyment of the races.

A bit like going to the drag races and having a loud announcement ad of Speed Kills between every race for 30 seconds.
Or every lap of Bathurst.

Anyway, I think they need to market racing, ownership, apprenticeships, offer more on racedays. Allow marquees of stud farms, TAFE courses, syndications, etc etc.

Or pretty soon except for Carnival week, we will have Moonee Valley slots, like the USA.

[norisk]

I reckon you should take a couple of weeks off (I assume you're working) and follow the roadshow around the state. I'm not sure where you're from but in Victoria you would have a race meeting to go to every day (except maybe Mondays).

You could clean up. :)


Read my mind The Ocho, planning to spend my next holidays roaming around Victoria as with a little planning one can usually get from one track to the next within a reasonable amount of time.

& had a laugh at the comments about Mooney Valley as it was the first Melbourne track I went to maybe 20 years ago & yeh I am sure that is the same carpet - Its a great little track but needs a major face-lift.

[Try Try Again]

Isn't Moonee Valley being pulled down and rebuilt after the Cox Plate this year?

Surely they won't re-use the same old carpet!

Hopefully the new amenities will cater for all needs.

[garyf]

Interesting we haven't heard yet from MR RUBBLE,
The original author of this thread.

Hope your ok Barny and what do you think of some,
Of the interesting ideas thrown around by the members.

Cheers.

[darkydog2002]

Blimey.Stone the crows.
Weddings ,Banquets, Deb Balls etc.on Australian Race Tracks.
Enough ta make a old punter roll over in his grave.

[Mark]

If you want to step way back in time go to Aqueduct in New York. Stuck somewhere in the 70's but without the crowds.

But back to the topic, besides those already winning consistently, do any of the others really want to win?, and are prepared to work for it?, and not just dream of a set and forget robot?. I'll see what the response is like before handing over a (what I think is) very simple method that will make consistent profits, but the catch is you have to work at it, you have to think, you have to get over the "boredom". Guaranteed. It's not for those who give up after one losing race, or one losing day, or possibly one losing week.

Watch this space.

[The Ocho]

:eek:

I'm watching Mark

[Merriguy]

Me too!!

Mark, many years ago you put on this forum a suggestion that you could do well laying horses that (for weekdays) had a strike rate of one in ten or worse; and for Sats 1 in 6 or worse. and some special other requirements for maidens.

I have often used it with success; but was scared off by the fact that many of the selections were quite high to lay --- yet to get full value from the idea you had to lay them too. Have you developed that idea at all?

[norisk]

Well I know I am not alone when it comes to fighting the boredom of a day at the pc battling away at the horses (& is probably why I enjoy being at the track as it's much less work;)) & as I work to one extent or another pretty much every race in QLD/NSW/VIC 5-6 days of the week, while it can become a chore I am always looking to add more strings to my bow, so bring it on Mark:)

[darkydog2002]

I spend a bit of time on the races myself.
10 minutes getting the scratchings and selections and another 10 minutes getting the best price - Sometimes if I feel lazy I might stretch it to a half hour.
One doesnt want to stretch the brain too much.

Cheers
darky

[AngryPixie]

I'm always looking for something to add to the portfolio Mark. Sounds good.

This thread certainly has gone all over the place.

[Mark]

Me too!!

Mark, many years ago you put on this forum a suggestion that you could do well laying horses that (for weekdays) had a strike rate of one in ten or worse; and for Sats 1 in 6 or worse. and some special other requirements for maidens.

I have often used it with success; but was scared off by the fact that many of the selections were quite high to lay --- yet to get full value from the idea you had to lay them too. Have you developed that idea at all?

There's a bit more to it than that merriguy, but yes they are part of what I do.

[TheSchmile]

If you want to step way back in time go to Aqueduct in New York. Stuck somewhere in the 70's but without the crowds.

But back to the topic, besides those already winning consistently, do any of the others really want to win?, and are prepared to work for it?, and not just dream of a set and forget robot?. I'll see what the response is like before handing over a (what I think is) very simple method that will make consistent profits, but the catch is you have to work at it, you have to think, you have to get over the "boredom". Guaranteed. It's not for those who give up after one losing race, or one losing day, or possibly one losing week.

Watch this space.

Hi Mark,

Not taking the Michael, however from your previous posts you seem to win almost every day. You are of course, operating from the Death Star :) on the 'dark side' of the equation as it were, being a layer/bookie.

In regards to Merriguy's post, I believe your comments regarding midweek lay rules (haven't won in the last year, or last 10 runs etc.) were that they were too unpredictable to lay.

I'd appreciate any thoughts/rebuttle and while I have my tongue slightly in cheek with this post, I do greatly respect your punting knowledge from reading your countless previous posts!

The Schmile

[Mark]

This is for layers.
Someone mentioned using the markets, and that's pretty much what I do, with a little of my own input on Saturday's & Holiday's.

I'll stick to the basis of laying for $100.

Lay the fav to pay $110
2nd fav to pay $105
3rd fav to pay $102
Rest to pay $100

For beginners it's that simple.

[Mark]

For the more experienced or adventurous use some discretion.

Lay the fav to pay $110.
You like the 2nd fav so only lay to pay $100.
You think the 3rd fav is unders so lay to pay $105 or even $110.
You don't like the fav, lay to pay $120.
There's a 20/1 shot you think is overs so lay to pay $90 or $95.
etc..... the permutations are endless, but always have the first couple in the market right up there.

The more % you have on your side, the less you risk and the more you win.
Doing this even on a bad day you can't do much damage.

[Mark]

I do this on US races in the morning, AUS races during the day, and UK races into the night. I usually (but not always) have Friday and Sunday off, due to preparing and then getting over Saturday.

No form study required unless you want to.
Have the bulfk of the field, and sometimes the whole field running for you.
Treat it as a job or a business.
Keep records.

[Mark]

Another variation is to lay everthing except the first few in the market to lose $100. Then lay the first few in the market to gradually pay out more than the previous in the market.
eg 4th pick is $10 so bet is $100/11, pay out is $111.
Lay 3rd pick to pay $113.
Lay 2nd pick to pay $115.
Lay fav to pay $120.
Or thereabouts.

Either method you can turn a profit when something that is at long odds that you give no chance to wins.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Mark,

Thanks for going so in depth.

I'll have a peruse in between win bets.

I vaguely recall you said in a previous post you play 15-20 races per day/country. Do you try to ascertain weak fav's to gain an advantage, or simply play the percentages?

The Schmile

[Mark]

Here are my bets from the US this morning, rounded up/down.
2.28..........97
6.4............32
130...........1.50
36.............5.50
4.8............44
100............2
14.5...........14
12.5...........16

hold $207, lost $4 when 4.80 won.

6.2..........82
2.45........225
21...........24
29...........17
50...........10
3.05........172

hold $530, won $5 when 3.05 won.

3.65.......91
48..........6.25
15.5.......19
24..........12.5
6.6.........47
5.6.........57
17..........17.5
21..........14.25
5.7.........56

Hold $321, won $23 when 17 won.

I usually stop when ahead on the US.
+$24 for 15 minutes work after I got out of bed, not knowing anything about the runners.

[Mark]

I will add that midweek I don't even look at our races until R5, don't bet omn maidens, and don't bet unless at least 30% of favs have won in the races run before the first R5 is run. If few have won I have the day off, if 30% or more have won I get stuck in. That's just me.

Saturday's I get stuck in from R1, but limit myself to Syd, Melb & Bris, and "big" races from anywhere else.

[Mark]

Feel free to ask questions, even rubbish this (I don't care, my BF account tells me otherwise). I will even put up my results on requested races from the last few weeks if you like (if I did bet on them).

I'll add that this is not the only way to win but it's more or less what I do.

How many will take note?, very few. How many will be doing this and still doing it in a year from now, probably nobody.

[Mark]

Hi Mark,

Thanks for going so in depth.

I'll have a peruse in between win bets.

I vaguely recall you said in a previous post you play 15-20 races per day/country. Do you try to ascertain weak fav's to gain an advantage, or simply play the percentages?

The Schmile

Every race is different, every day is different, which makes what I do very hard to mechanise. I approach every race differently to the previous race.
An average is hard to gauge but if pressed I would say I average 5-6 US (6-7 days per week) 6-10 AUS races (4-5 days per week) Saturday is usually 20+, and 6-8 UK races (6-7 days per week).

[norisk]

Cheers for the insight Mark

Wonder if you traded the Oakleigh Plate last Sat & if so would mind sharing your approach to that race.

[jose]

Top stuff Mark.
Hope this doesn't wreck the prices for you, as I see by the amount of views that there is quite a lot of interest in your method.
Cheers.

[Mark]

norisk, a big result as I liked the winner, plus the % was good.

I'll list as numbers only.
1.....$1682 @ 3.58
2.....$246 @ 24
3.....$90 @ 66
4.....$212 @ 28
5.....$225 @ 26
6.....$1863 @ 3.21
7.....$163 @ 36
8.....$34 @ 177
9.....$226 @ 26
10....$158 @ 38
11....$393 @ 15
13....$203 @ 29
14....$94 @ 64
15....$62 @ 97
16....$96 @ 62
17....$317 @ 19
18....$64 @ 92

Hold $6128
4 wins pay out $5936

[Mark]

Top stuff Mark.
Hope this doesn't wreck the prices for you, as I see by the amount of views that there is quite a lot of interest in your method.
Cheers.

As I said, very few will actually give it a go, and competition is good.

[jose]

Fair enough, but thanks again for sharing anyhow.

[Dale]

Hi Mark,


Very insightful, loving it.

[TheSchmile]

Every race is different, every day is different, which makes what I do very hard to mechanise. I approach every race differently to the previous race.
An average is hard to gauge but if pressed I would say I average 5-6 US (6-7 days per week) 6-10 AUS races (4-5 days per week) Saturday is usually 20+, and 6-8 UK races (6-7 days per week).
Hi Mark,

Completely agree!!

Each race is its own unique puzzle, that's why I love doing the form so much. When you can isolate a good thing at a decent price that the market has totally ignored there's no better feeling for mine.

Yesterday I had the most bizarre/awesome day 16 bets for 5 winners:

I started with 6 losers in a row, followed by 4 winners in a row, at $3, $9, $6 and $36 (magnetosphere). A 4 leg all-up would have netted $5831/1. WOWSERS. I only backed them straight out however I was extremely happy at the end of the day!!

So forgive me if my post was a little strange last night, I was celebrating long into the night. I still haven't quite come down....

I admit I do love the thrill of a win, as well as a little financial kick so at present I stick to backing winners.

I'd wish you best of luck with your methods Mark, however it appears you have this game well and truly SUSSED!!

Today I only have 5 bets. 2 have run and 1 has saluted at over $4. So I'll lose a little or break even at worst.

The Schmile

[Merriguy]

Yes thanks Mark. Appreciated.

Whenever people speak of spoiling dividends I always think of Crash (of happy memory) who used to say that you could chalk a winning system on the footpath outside Randwick on a Saturday, and it would make no difference to the outcome in money terms --- probably right too!!

Thanks sincerely.

[Chrome Prince]

Interesting stuff Mark.

I'd like to play Devil's Advocate if you don't mind.
I'd also like to preface it with the statement that I know what you do works and has done for many years.

a) isn't this similar to laying to liability rather than payout because of the staking?
b) I notice that the staking is only a sideline, the actual knack is getting the market percentage to 102.68% in the Oakleigh Plate example.
This is not an easy task for most people, because the odds are always floating.
c) Have you noticed the chances of getting good market percentages shrinking over the last 6 months?
d) What do you do with odds on favourites, do you lay them all, lay them selectively or ignore them completely?

As you know I have been laying the field for a few years, and the penalty is the rollercoaster when using Betfair SP liability.
I think I have solved that portion of it.
I'll expand on this later, but this is your spotlight ;)

Well done.

[Chrome Prince]

Yes thanks Mark. Appreciated.

Whenever people speak of spoiling dividends I always think of Crash (of happy memory) who used to say that you could chalk a winning system on the footpath outside Randwick on a Saturday, and it would make no difference to the outcome in money terms --- probably right too!!

Thanks sincerely.

I would say this is spot on, except in the circumstance where it can be automated. In Mark's case it cannot, but be vewy vewy carefuw, Elmer Fudd is hunting systems.
I have seen this happen.

[michaelg]

Yes, thanks Mark.

Doesn't laying races with small liquidity i.e. USA create problems? If you are going to lay the field how can you guarantee that you will obtain the desired prices, especially as the prices are continually changing? And how can you be sure every horse will be layed before they jump? Do you hit the Place Bets button once or several times (if trying to get the best Lay price)?

Mark, I've always been intrigued how you can get an "all green" field, especially on sporting/special events where the start-time is days in the future.

I presume you do not touch S.P. laying because there can be no trading except somehow combining it with the Exchange?

Thanks again for your input.

[lomaca]

Yes thanks Mark. Appreciated.

Whenever people speak of spoiling dividends I always think of Crash (of happy memory) who used to say that you could chalk a winning system on the footpath outside Randwick on a Saturday, and it would make no difference to the outcome in money terms --- probably right too!!

Thanks sincerely.Merriguy
I'm not sure now and have no time to hunt for the exact quote but I think he referred to the behavior of an average punter and in that he was absolutely right.
Nothing will shake the beliefs and change the habits of an average punter.

Thank God for that!

On the other hand if you have a good idea keep it to yourself.
Sorry to say, revealing it to all and sundry WILL change odds. May not matter much on a metro race but it certainly matters weekdays.

[AngryPixie]

Yesterday I had the most bizarre/awesome day 16 bets for 5 winners:


Schmile

It has been a good couple of days hasn't it. Cleared 23.6 units on 48 lays since start of Aus racing yesterday which is pretty good for the bot. In saying that though I have just guarenteed at least 4 losing lays in a row :eek:

Mark I'll have a close look at what you've put up. I've often wondered ;)

[Mark]

CP, every race is different but I'm usually somewhere between liability and payout.
Not the last 6 months no, UK early markets have all but disappeared but that started several years ago. My turnover on Aus races has actually greatly increased over time.
Odds on, if I'm working it's just another race to me. I prefer it when there's a shorty because you've got good % in just one runner, makes making a book that much easier. Black Caviar is a case in point, I held more on each of her last 2 races than I did on all of last Saturday. They also give you a chance at a bigger win with a lower risk.
I'd like to know how you've smoothed the roller coaster if you don't mind emailing me.
As for system hunters (************ts) the last to steal one of my ideas is now out of business....wonder why.

michaelg, yes USA I tread lightly and usually get out when in front.
I do use SP where I can, some races are really good. Rocky R5 just run was 104%, not that I was on. Rightly or wrongly I'm having the afternoon off.

lomaca, appreciate your opinion but I bet it won't change a thing.

[moeee]

I guess that means I am just an AVERAGE PUNTER , as I have seen zero posted that will make me believe that someone here has something that is worth more than what I have.

Once I get my $7.6k up to $10k , I'll post some stuff.
Prolly take a couple months though , because I'm only making $1k a month - often less.

[TheSchmile]

I disagree Moeee,

On those figures, you're much better than average!!

The 'average' punter hits the TAB after 3-5 minutes of form 'study' and watches their ill informed selection fail time and again, or gets a small win and doubles it up, only to lose, again.

If you're in profit, well done!

The Schmile

[lomaca]

lomaca, appreciate your opinion but I bet it won't change a thing.That's OK Mark, what you do and what I do are worlds apart.
Lay betting horses is more foreign to me than speaking chinese.
At least I speak a couple of words in chinese.

[moeee]

I disagree Moeee,

On those figures, you're much better than average!!
If you're in profit, well done!

The Schmile

Thanks Shmile - I believe I'm doing better than many , if not most.

But my AVERAGE PUNTER was in response to Lomacas usage.

[Chrome Prince]

Seeing as you asked, I don't mind putting it up here.
I just didn't want to hijack the thread.

Market percentages at SP have tightened up quite significantly over recent months.
I think a few sharp minds cottoned on and now the margins at the shortest and longest ends of the market are much closer to zero.
It's the middle ground where the odds are still very very good (for laying).
So SP is still profitable but tightened up for me.

As an example average SP market percentage is now 100.58% a far cry from the 103% two years ago :(
This includes the variances of 104% or better and 96% and worse.

This is why I'm somewhat amazed at the results you got, although I realise you are creating your own markets rather than betting into an SP market.

My strategy would be more profitable laying those under $3.00 to payout $100 and those over $11.00 to payout $100 and anything between to payout say $120 or perhaps more.

If I were to simply lay the field to fixed liability of say $30.00 (the minimum)
I have turned over close to $730,000 for a profit of $3,550 or 0.49% before commission :eek:
This is vastly different to the previous years.

But again, when things like this happen, something else has to give, and give it does, better than laying the entire field ever was (for me).
That's about as much as I can say about the actual strategy.

The rollercoaster has been something that has concerned me for quite some time, it's not the results, it's the inability to utilise a bigger percentage of the bank afraid of those dreaded runs where every fancied or second fancied horse gets up in Aus, then UK, then USA for a day.
It happens often enough, that I cannot risk higher liability than my set percentage of bank.
The greatest damage comes from those odds on favourites that get on a run of success. They are still profitable to lay, but can really do some damage when they're hot.
So I simply bet back @ SP anything odds on for a fixed amount.
This only reduces the liability, but if it gets rolled I still make money.
If it wins I lose less money.

[midas]

Hey I've only now had a look at these posts and back to square one. Of course all systems have BAD losing runs.
Backing favourites at 30% (?) strike rate alone you can back Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and still possibly not get a winner.
I suggest that no matter what selection system you are following be prepared for the dreaded outs but if you have figures to show that over a long period it has a reasonable average ( not an impracticable figure) plan to survive.
I have a staking system ( not rocket science ) which increases bets after a winner only. How many plans are chasing losses - 8 losers winner at $2.50, another 6 losers. How is your increasing bets after losers going now? Also after a winner at a certain sequence I return to GO and start again. All because I know that my averages will kick back in and I have learnt to, sometimes, cut losses ( I am very wimpy, not a gambler).
It all depends on your selection process. As wiser heads have said Keep It Simple, then if it proves itself over a period stick with it through good and bad because they are very hard to find.
This wisdom after a few sherberts.
Good Luck
Midas

[lomaca]

I disagree Moeee,

On those figures, you're much better than average!!

The 'average' punter hits the TAB after 3-5 minutes of form 'study' and watches their ill informed selection fail time and again, or gets a small win and doubles it up, only to lose, again.

If you're in profit, well done!

The SchmileWell said TheSchmile.

Some people here think that every post is somehow directed at them personally.
Nothing could be further from the truth, my comments were just a general observation about punters, you so eloquently described.

Good luck

[TheSchmile]

No worries Iomaca,

We have plenty of time to refine our systems, check this out!! :)

Humans to live forever through Robots (http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/13061486/humans-to-live-in-robots/)

The Schmile

[norisk]

hmm, 'forever' to chase the grail...nah, pass;)

[Puntz]

The agency is already researching ways for its troops to use their minds to remotely control androids who will take human soldiers' place on the battlefield.

TheSchmile,

That's where I think the smarties have all up side down, " to the battle field",
blimey, won't they EVER "get it", take it to the racetrack instead! geez,
A "Androind Punter , "live betting bot clones" at Randwick!
Ha !

[AngryPixie]

In saying that though I have just guarenteed at least 4 losing lays in a row :eek:


Well not quite four in a row. The rest of the Aus day looked like this. Never pays to get too ahead of (up) ones self. :)


15:45 Rock (AUS) 1st Mar/R4 1050m CL1/7. Her Diamonds 3.55 W +1.00
16:03 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R3 1600m 3yo/12. Evolve 6.8 W +1.00
16:03 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R3 1600m 3yo/14. La Reilly 7.2 W +1.00
16:14 Wyng (AUS) 1st Mar/R6 1350m CL2/1. Honor Net 3.75 W +1.00
16:14 Wyng (AUS) 1st Mar/R6 1350m CL2/3. Hot Millie 6.4 W +1.00
16:25 Rock (AUS) 1st Mar/R5 1300m CL1/13. Navillus Grandiva 6.8 W +1.00
16:25 Rock (AUS) 1st Mar/R5 1300m CL1/5. Callan Park 6.8 W +1.00
16:38 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R4 1400m Mdn/10. Polish Knight 4.1 L -3.10
16:38 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R4 1400m Mdn/14. Bendigo Belle 7 W +1.00
16:38 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R4 1400m Mdn/6. Carronade 3.85 W +1.00
16:47 Pinj (AUS) 1st Mar/R3 1200m 3yo/2. Fonzarelli 7.2 W +1.00
16:54 Wyng (AUS) 1st Mar/R7 1350m CL2/2. Road To Summer 6.2 L -5.20
16:54 Wyng (AUS) 1st Mar/R7 1350m CL2/3. Als Pride 7.8 W +1.00
17:34 Wyng (AUS) 1st Mar/R8 1100m Hcap/10. Drop Of Magic 6 W 1.00
17:45 Rock (AUS) 1st Mar/R7 1100m CL4/2. Down Another Track 7.2 L -6.20
17:48 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R6 1000m Hcap/8. Dashing Miss 7.8 L -6.80
18:07 Pinj (AUS) 1st Mar/R5 1000m Mdn/3. Husslehoff 9.4 W +1.00
18:23 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R7 1600m Hcap/2. Hygeld 7.6 L -6.60
18:23 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R7 1600m Hcap/8. Somebodys Image 6.8 W +1.00
18:47 Pinj (AUS) 1st Mar/R6 2013m Hcap/6. Neige 7.4 W +1.00
18:58 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R8 1400m Hcap/5. Dont Tell Trish 2.75 W +1.00
18:58 Ball (AUS) 1st Mar/R8 1400m Hcap/12. Good Reception 3.6 W +1.00
20:36 Pinj (AUS) 1st Mar/R9 1200m CL1/9. Empress Of Ireland 4.3 W +1.00

[TheSchmile]

TheSchmile,
That's where I think the smarties have all up side down, " to the battle field",
blimey, won't they EVER "get it", take it to the racetrack instead! geez,
A "Androind Punter , "live betting bot clones" at Randwick!
Ha !

Ooooo,

I LIKE that idea Puntz!!

No need to stay sober while putting on your investments at the track, 'got my android onto it!!' :)

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Well not quite four in a row. The rest of the Aus day looked like this. Never pays to get too ahead of (up) ones self. :)

Wise advice Angry Pixie,

I'll probably not have a freakish run like Wednesday's for another year, maybe more. I get the very occasional $20+ horse but my bread and butter is in the $3-7 range.

5 bets again today, looks like there's some goodies at the Valley tonight. A few nice ones tomorrow, then a break till Wednesday as I need to recharge.

The Schmile

[Puntz]

more reason to stay sober, drunken clone bots at the races, geez, then there will be a squeaky mess, but hang on, the bookies will want to get in on act to,
android bookies, "Water-Droid", as in you know who...!
<smirk>

[TheSchmile]

more reason to stay sober, drunken clone bots at the races, geez, then there will be a squeaky mess, but hang on, the bookies will want to get in on act to,
android bookies, "Water-Droid", as in you know who...!
<smirk>

I think the Android bookies thing has already happened, the betting ring at most meetings has the collective personality of a block of wood.

The Schmile

[AngryPixie]

I get the very occasional $20+ horse but my bread and butter is in the $3-7 range.


That's pretty much my bread and butter laying price range. This current bot is laying down to a floor price of 3.55 (although there looks to be a shorter one in the prices above) and up to 9.6, which is a pretty consistant ceiling price with me. Earlier iterations of this has seen the bot using 5.3 as the floor price. Anything below this was either breakeven or a slight loss.

Funny isn't it. There's no correct method, just winning or losing methods.

[AngryPixie]

I think the Android bookies thing has already happened, the betting ring at most meetings has the collective personality of a block of wood.


Fast well connected bots are sucking the value out of the UK markets. If you want to really go up against it try trading the FTSE up's and downs on Betfair. Think most of the activity has moved off to Tradefair (think that's what its called) now but unless you were sitting infront of a Bloomberg terminal with a 10Gb link straight into Betfair you had no hope at all.

[Puntz]

These days I prefer mortality, no where near where some here may be at, but appreciate the collective experience that's being read. Whether it's true or true hope, it done not really matter. It's there for the taking.

What Mark has posted is where I understand that type of number's "game", for lack of better terms, and true what is stated, many will not even have a 2nd look, or even a go at it. I'm the latter, but it's just interesting to watch.

Today, my betting?, well this is what is happening.
I bet, "peanut butter bets", but I don't lose. As long as 50 units is bet and get back Min 60 units in the scope of things, on the day, wonderful.
If I get a return of 150 units in the course of the day, that's ok to.
If I get that elusive big pay out Trifecta, well, fil'eagh mignon day.
Ya know, whether big is better or small is greater, so what.
Good luck to you all.

As far as the Android market is concerned?, well the Ancient Greeks had a idea, They said, "we have all the theory to make machines, but if we make the machines, we become slaves to the machines, the machines require constant service and looking after".
So it's arms length for me and all these never ending Gig thirsty computers.
Peanut Butter will do.

[norisk]

As far as the Android market is concerned?, well the Ancient Greeks had a idea, They said, "we have all the theory to make machines, but if we make the machines, we become slaves to the machines, the machines require constant service and looking after".
So it's arms length for me and all these never ending Gig thirsty computers.
Peanut Butter will do.


Lots of truth there Puntz - got my new Android 4G phone the other day only because my well used ancient Nokia finally bit the dust, RIP :( & think I have spent more time looking after it than my dogs of late!;)

it does have some pretty cool stuff tho...

[Chrome Prince]

Let's hope if your brain is imported or replicated into a computer, that computer is not runned nor maintained by BF.
May as well be dead!

[lomaca]

Let's hope if your brain is imported or replicated into a computer, that computer is not runned nor maintained by BF.
May as well be dead!more and more posts are confirming my own thoughts.
maybe not on allowed to mention on this forum but luxbet looks promising so far.
not every day and on every race but if one is only betting selectively it may of value.

Cheers

[moeee]

I didn't find Betfair as being rubbish.

The constant closures for website maintenance without appropriate warning are annoying and frustrating though.

[Chrome Prince]

Yes not criticising the betting medium, just the IT infrastructure.
It's more offline than the Terminator these days.

[TheSchmile]

That's pretty much my bread and butter laying price range. This current bot is laying down to a floor price of 3.55 (although there looks to be a shorter one in the prices above) and up to 9.6, which is a pretty consistant ceiling price with me. Earlier iterations of this has seen the bot using 5.3 as the floor price. Anything below this was either breakeven or a slight loss.

Funny isn't it. There's no correct method, just winning or losing methods.
Hi AngryPixie,

Apologies for the late reply, I've literally been in the thick of it, sat between two Sri Lankans, going through a veritable roller coaster of emotions at the MCG. I'm glad I don't bet on sports matches because I don't think my heart could've taken it! What a match!!!

I agree wholeheartedly with your last sentence in the quotation. One can probably play any price bracket with success, be it backing or laying, so long as you can accurately evaluate overlays vs underlays to your advantage.

My rule of thumb is to find a horse that I believe is 1-2 lengths better then the opposition in the chosen race. I then wait for the right price. On an average Saturday there will be 10-15 selections, of which I will bet between 4-8 of these selections depending on the price on offer. Watch enough races and you get a feel for the obvious factors that will make this horse favourite and that horse 2nd favourite etc. Sometimes the market will confuse you no end, in this instance, take a paracetamol (or 3 deep breaths), step away, then back your instincts.

I don't for a second pretend to know it all, however I know that what I do works, I assume it's the same with your lay selections. You understand the ups and downs, ins and outs.

My downfall for the best part of my early punting career was threefold; lacking direction, impatience and not demanding value.

Reverse these three things and you're in business. :)

The Schmile

[AngryPixie]

The rollercoaster has been something that has concerned me for quite some time, it's not the results, it's the inability to utilise a bigger percentage of the bank afraid of those dreaded runs where every fancied or second fancied horse gets up in Aus, then UK, then USA for a day.

Chrome, this is pretty much why I gave this away. Just became too frustrating to have finished virtually in the same place you'd started at when the end of the week came around. The journey during that week was one of incredible ups and downs, and over time it seemed to me that the ups where smaller and the downs bigger. Just doesn't fit with where I'm at. The margin's not big enough for me. Much prefer the destination to have been worth the journey.

[woof43]

THE UPS AND DOWN OF US RACING CHECK AQUEDUCT FOR FEB or ABOUT 20 RACING DAYS
IT'S AN ANALYSIS OF HOW THE FAVORITES HAVE PERFORMED IN FEBRUARY 2012.

* HERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS:

1. OUT OF 147 RACES THE FAVORITE HAS BEEN AT EVEN MONEY OR LESS 48 TIMES.

2. THESE ODDS-ON FAVORITES HAVE WON 70.8 % OF THEIR RACES.

3. ALL FAVORITES HAVE WON 44.9 % OF THEIR
RACES.

4. NOTE THAT FAVORITES GOING OFF AT ODDS GREATER THAN EVEN MONEY BUT = TO OR LESS THAN 2.20 WON EXACTLY 33.3 % OF THEIR RACES.



HERE IS SOME INTERESTING INFO CONCERNING ODDS-ON FAVORITES AT AQUEDUCT FOR FEBRUARY.

* WITH 70.8 % WINNERS YOU WOULD NEED A BREAK-EVEN PAYOFF FOR $1 OF $1.41 (1/ 70.8 % = $1.41).

* THE ACTUAL AVERAGE P.O. FOR $1 HAS BEEN $1.58.

* THAT REPRESENTS A RETURN OF $1.12 FOR EVERY $1 INVESTED:

1. $1.58 (AVERAGE P.O. FOR $1) X 34 WINS = $53.65.

2. $1.12 (RETURN PER $1 INVESTED) X $48 INVESTED = $53.65.

3. $1.41 (BREAK-EVEN P.O. FOR $1) X 34 WINS = $48 INVESTMENT.

[Mark]

I'm reasonably sure that nobody took my advice but there you go.
My results?
Friday, 22 markets, won on 21.
Today, 33 markets, won on 25.
Just over 3% POT for very little risk.
Most races were no risk.

[jose]

Didn't follow your advice to the letter, but tidied up my own strategy around the edges with a few of your tips,so a big thank-you for that Mark.
Last night at MV was a wipe-out for me though, how did you go there?
Favs galore, sad but true.

[AngryPixie]

I'm reasonably sure that nobody took my advice but there you go.
My results?
Friday, 22 markets, won on 21.
Today, 33 markets, won on 25.
Just over 3% POT for very little risk.
Most races were no risk.

Nice well done, though you make it sound as if risk is a bad thing ;) :)

I simmed up four UK races last night using your beginners method. Won on the first then lost the next three straight. :D

[Mark]

I didn't really get involved. Traded a few place markets, but was too busy building a book on the Interdominion.

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome, this is pretty much why I gave this away. Just became too frustrating to have finished virtually in the same place you'd started at when the end of the week came around. The journey during that week was one of incredible ups and downs, and over time it seemed to me that the ups where smaller and the downs bigger. Just doesn't fit with where I'm at. The margin's not big enough for me. Much prefer the destination to have been worth the journey.

I understand completely, no other band of winners does as much damage as a run of short favourites when laying the field to fixed liability. Added to that the market percentages have tightened up significantly.
You can limit this as outlined previously.

[The Ocho]

I'm reasonably sure that nobody took my advice but there you go.
My results?
Friday, 22 markets, won on 21.
Today, 33 markets, won on 25.
Just over 3% POT for very little risk.
Most races were no risk.
I tried your beginner method Mark but I just couldn't get it happening. As they say, each to their own. ;)

[Mark]

Nice well done, though you make it sound as if risk is a bad thing ;) :)



As Maxwell Smart said (or maybe not) "If only he'd used his risk for niceness instead of evil".

I'm not completely against risk I just prefer the steady income without the ups & downs.

[AngryPixie]

Mark I can absolutely see the value of this type of method if it's income you're after. At my current stage in life I'm after growth so am willing to accept the risk that goes along with that.

As I suggested to Chrome earlier I gave the lay the field method away as I'd regularly see weekly bank balance swings of +/- 2 or 3k only to end up with $70-$80 for my troubles. That's not enough margin for me Chief.

[AngryPixie]

At my current stage in life I'm after growth so am willing to accept the risk that goes along with that.


I've been running a simulation since Sunday, playing around with banded staking (Maria). I'll wait till I get next Saturdays results and will post these up. Thought it might be of some small interest to show what I'm up to these days.

[Chrome Prince]

As I suggested to Chrome earlier I gave the lay the field method away as I'd regularly see weekly bank balance swings of +/- 2 or 3k only to end up with $70-$80 for my troubles. That's not enough margin for me Chief.

Hi Angry Pixie,

(lowers the cone of silence, and brings in Heimy).
KAOS has changed the SP market.
Heimi has been laying the field for me Chief, but KAOS has the claw (not the craw) to skim off the margins, hence Agent 13 (Angry Pixie) was only making $70 - $80 for his troubles.

So Max did a little investigation and asked K9 to sniff out the problem.
It seems Larrabee has been laying outsiders pushing the SP out on those horses.
K9 also reports that the massive swings comes from runs of favourites getting up.
They are profitable though, you just need to distribute the liability better.
Something along the lines of Mark's staggered staking.

For example, if there is an odds on favourite in the race and normally you'd lay the field to $30 liability. I lay every other horse to $60 liability, but only those in single figures, if there are any.

Siegfried has been doing this for a while and the rollercoaster smooths out considerably.

*TRIVIA: Don Adams father appeared in the episode "The not so great escape" as the oldtimer.

[The Ocho]

Hahaha. :D

Missed it by that much.

I hope I wasn't out of line with that crack about missing it.

[Chrome Prince]

Would you believe....?

:D

[Mark]

I will add that midweek I don't even look at our races until R5, don't bet omn maidens, and don't bet unless at least 30% of favs have won in the races run before the first R5 is run.

4 races run at wyong & sandown, 2 at Bris......I make it 9 favs from 10.
Get stuck in !!!!!

And yes I would believe.

[Mark]

Wyong R5....a bolter......who would have thought.
Love it when a plan comes together.

[Mark]

To circumvent any misunderstanding, I won't be on Bris until R5.

[jose]

Mumble mumble....something about horses and water..........mumble mumble.

[Chrome Prince]

I must admit, I never go on what happened in previous races, only previous days, and then only if it was a massive deviation from the average expectation.
However, the trouble comes when it goes on for days at a time, not so common here, but quite frequent in the UK.

[Vortech]

Another note or debate on the side of this topic is in relation to confidence levels.

If you have a system with 50 selections and you manage to get 30 winners (60% SR) with an average return of $3.00 you have a profit of $40.00

Now using any interval calculator http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm you have an interval of 17.87. Meaning the Strike rate can range from 42.13% to 77.87% with a 99% confidence.

Based on this, at worst you have 42.13% strike rate @ $3.00 average winner is still a 26.39% profit.

Is this logical in racing terms?

[Chrome Prince]

However, the trouble comes when it goes on for days at a time, not so common here, but quite frequent in the UK.

I should have added the USA!!!
Been making very good money on both UK and AUS the last week, but USA has hit hard :(

[Mark]

Agreed, the US was very hard going this morning.
I worked 10 races for 5 favs, 3 2nd favs, a 3rd fav and 1 result.

[norisk]

If you have a system with 50 selections and you manage to get 30 winners (60% SR) with an average return of $3.00 you have a profit of $40.00




Reckon you need a much bigger sample Vortech, to go forward with any confidence.

[Chrome Prince]

Agreed, the US was very hard going this morning.
I worked 10 races for 5 favs, 3 2nd favs, a 3rd fav and 1 result.

Today was not extraordinary for the USA, this has been going on steady for the last week. I wonder if it's the average small field size.
At this stage I'm praying for rain, as that's when we get the nice results in the mud there ;)

To give you some yardstick:
AUS profit 25.32 units after commission
USA loss of 14 units after commission

Head above water, but USA is definitely on a sustained run of short winners.

[AngryPixie]

Chrome

What's the US liquidity like these days? Last time I looked it was pretty poor - similar to the NZ markets.

Can you make a decent buck there?

[Vortech]

Reckon you need a much bigger sample Vortech, to go forward with any confidence.
Isn't this why we use a confidence intervals.
The larger the sample the less the interval (+/-)

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome

What's the US liquidity like these days? Last time I looked it was pretty poor - similar to the NZ markets.

Can you make a decent buck there?

Liquidity is fine except for the outsiders, or those outside the top few prices.

[norisk]

Isn't this why we use a confidence intervals.
The larger the sample the less the interval (+/-)

Not too sure about any of that Vortech, never really looked at it - personally I don't proceed with any method/system until I have a substantial result set that passes a chi-test & plots a positive bell curve.

[Vortech]

Do you have an example of how the chi-test works?

[AngryPixie]

Do you have an example of how the chi-test works?

Here ...

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showpost.php?p=162274&postcount=30

[Vortech]

Using my test sample

You have 30 winners from 50 selections

30 winners, 20 losers. Avg Dividend $4.00
Expected number of winners is 1/4 = 0.25
Normalise the market to from 115% is 0.25/1.15 = 0.21739

50 Selections so multiply by 0.21739 to get the expected winners

Gives 10.87 winners expected

Expected losers is 50 - 10.87 = 39.13

Observed winners = 30 A1
Observed losers = 20 B1
Expected winners = 10.87 A2
Expected losers = 39.13 B2

Put this into excel as CHITEST =CHITEST(A1:B1,A2:B2) on get something like 0.0000005%

Are these the chances of the system continuing? :) I'm very interested in hearing others thoughts

Even making the Avg Dividend like $3.00 more realistic is still giving a very very low %

[AngryPixie]

Are these the chances of the system continuing? :) I'm very interested in hearing others thoughts

No it's the chance that the observed results where not due to luck. Frankly though you don't need a Chi-Test to tell you that 60% winners at ave div of $4.00 isn't due to luck ;)

[Vortech]

So what is a punter trying to achieve from these results. More confidence in a system long term with a higher % from the Chi-Test?

[AngryPixie]

More confidence with a low %. The lower the % the less chance the results were due to luck.

[norisk]

All looks good Vortech...but I still think your sample size is way too small as imho you need at least 500 events to get any sense out of a chi-test.

[AngryPixie]

Vortech, the Chi-Test is just a tool and shows you "what was". There's no promise of "what will be".

Norisk, you should read some Nassim Nicholas Taleb (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb) on the subject of normal distribution. He's reputed to have made a fortune from the GFC by pretty much throwing the Bell Curve in the bin.

[norisk]

cheers AngryPixie, will give it a look

Would add that I view all these tests etc just as a guide to get me going in the right direction, they certainly do not offer any sort of guarantee that one has nailed the holy grail or the like, as isnt the golden rule 'rubbish in, rubbish out'.

[thorns]

Use this link here, much quicker and easier.

Binomial Confidence Interval
http://statpages.org/confint.html

Will tell you your worst and best case expected SR from your current sample size.

[Vortech]

Thanks Thorns.
Basically set to 99.9% confidence.
Take the min Strike rate and multiple by avg. dividend.