The sports systems on this site....

[Mr J]

I'm pretty skeptical about these, esp the
%s they give. The fact that they also use the same text for each system, just change the sport name is also a bit dodgy.

Still, anyone know any programs I can buy so I can store info, get tables etc. Looking at getting started at AFL and the NRL, maybe the american sports when I'm better at handicapping.

[Chrome Prince]

Mr J,

I have been priviliged enough to get the tennis betting information, and I must say that Tony knows his facts and figures very well.

You cannot win every bet, that's a given, but I'm far better off for his advice.

As for the same text, I disagree, the basic principles are the same, but the approach is different.

[gattaca]

Hi Jimmy.

Thanks for your posting.

You should be skeptical, it's wise on the internet.

However, let me assure you and any other readers that our sports betting packages are a serious attempt to make sustainable long term profits by using mathematical modelling, statistical analysis and artificial intelligence techniques.

The reason there is an opening statement about sports betting which is identical for each package is that the same approach is used on each of these sports, although there are slight differences because of the different experts we employ.

Our tennis especially is a bit different to the others because our tennis expert is not an academic, he is a professional tennis bettor. He still uses a computer model to produce ratings and "fair odds" though.

To assuage your skepticism I suggest you follow the links to the home pages at the various universities of our experts and also type their names into seach engines to ascertain their credentials. Professor Stephen Clarke, Professor Ray Stefani and Alan McCabe will turn up hundreds of pages of material as they are all internationally recognised for their work on sports betting and are well published.

Also, a common denominator of all dodgy betting services is the lack of information about the people running it. You can read about the directors of OZmium Pty Ltd at http://www.ozmium.com.au

Furthermore, I'm happy to be phoned between midday and midnight Melbourne time on 03 9866 3654 to field any hard questions you want to fire at me. You can also speak with some of our current members about the quality of the information and the service we provide. (Thanks to the previous respondent for the kind words about the tennis by the way.)

It's not a get rich quick scheme but it is a serious attempt to get an edge over the bookies using mainly experts who have proved their mettle, often publicly in high profile media tipping competitions and in numerous published papers. OZmium pays these experts good money for their information, we are not using monkeys throwing darts.

Hope this is useful.

Regards,

Guy West.

Managing Director OZmium Pty Ltd.

[Mr J]

You cannot win every bet, that's a given, but I'm far better off for his advice.


Obviously :wink:, but that 65-70% sounds very high compared to the 55-60% I see for consistent handicappers (I'm totally new to handicapping & sports betting).


As for the same text, I disagree, the basic principles are the same, but the approach is different.


If you read the NRL, the Super 12's and Soccer links they all say the say text:


Rugby Union is an excellent sport on which to launch a serious
betting.............'smart money' and hard headed professionals make a very nice living finding value bets that exploit this factor.


They just swap the name of the sport in this, the soccer and league texts.

Still, I'd prefer to hear about experiences people have. These guy's could be very good, but I'm new to it all and would prefer not to get scammed.

[becareful]

Mr J.

I have also been receiving the Tennis information and would have to say that it is excellent. As with all betting there are ups and downs but so far there have been more ups than downs so I have doubled my starting bank since I started getting the package in January. As Chrome Prince indicated the information Tony provides is excellent and if you are interested in Tennis betting then it is well worth the money - he doesn't just give a "bet if this price" for selected matches but instead gives you an analysis of EVERY MATCH being played with his opinion on the fair price and recommendations for which matches you should bet on and which ones should be avoided.

I will also be getting the Rugby League info but obviously can't comment on this one yet as the season hasn't started - check back in a few weeks.

As a general comment all the information I have received from the guys at Ozmium has been as promised - I have definitely not been "scammed" in any way. They do not promise any "get rich quick" schemes but rather quality information to help you with your betting.

I do agree that the copy writing for the sports ads is a bit repetitive but the point is valid for all those sports - most punters are betting with their hearts instead of their heads when it comes to rugby, soccer or AFL so those with access to good quality unbiased information are more likely to be able to find the true value bets. I am not sure which ad mentions the 65-70% but I would say if you are not able to acheive this sort of percentage on a simple win/lose bet then you are not going to make any money. 55-60% will not get you anywhere when the average dividend for a "pick the winner" type sportsbet is under $2.00.

[Mr J]

As I said, I'm new to handicapping, sports betting etc...so, I only learn from what I read.

If it's been going well, then great. Still, it should be easy to understand my skepticism.

I have thought about the packages and think I might as well give one a go (at least to start with). It's not a lot of money, and could easily pay itself off.

Still, I need to form my own skills.

Do any of you bet on american sports? Do you need to, to make serious money (at least to maximise your opportunites). I have had quite a lot of success with counting and bonus hustling, and can dedicate a large BR to sports. All I need is the info and to build my skills (which following expert advice and analyizing it will surely do).

[becareful]

Mr J,

I don't bet on American sports (not yet anyway) and don't really see any need to unless you are particularly interested in them. The turnover on other international sports is big enough now and there are so many bookmakers around that you should have no trouble betting on just about any sport you like - for example Betfair alone has over $2.5 million dollars bet on the Aust v NZ match tonight.

If you want consistant year-round action then I would say Tennis is hard to beat - it carries on pretty much year round instead of having 6 month seasons.

For those who may be interested Tony recommended 12 bets for Round 1 at Indian Wells - of these 6 have played so far. These 6 were:
Stepanek – 0.75 unit if over 1.76 - LOST @ 2.30
Safin – 1.5 units if over 1.46 - WON @ 1.20
Costa – 0.5 unit if over 1.91 - WON @ 2.25
Vahaly - 0.5 unit if over 1.73 - WON @ 2.30
Spadea - 1.5 units if over 1.41 - WON @ 2.59
Kratochvil - 0.5 unit if over 1.85 - LOST @ 1.64
So there have been 4 bets (Safin and Kratchovil were not available at the recommended price) for a total of 3.25 units invested with a return of 6.16 units.

As I said previously there have been bad weeks and good weeks but overall Tonys recommended bets seem to be producing good results overall - with a sizeable bank you should be able to make quite a nice profit.

[Mr J]

Thanks for the advice, I might as well them a go, they don't cost that much...

Going by the comments I've heard on this board, they sound pretty good...

I was interested in the tennis, due to the all-year round season...

Maybe some golf too....

[maxhugen]

In my humble opinion:

1. 70% is not difficult to achieve.
2. You can still lose bags of your hard-earned even with 70% winners, kiss your stake goodbye.
3. Predictions are just one stage of three to earn consistent profits. Without the other two, kiss your stake goodbye.
4. Single person sports such as tennis, golf etc are unsustainable - profit wise - for all but the most dedicated punter, kiss your stake goodbye.
5. Low scoring games like soccer etc have high margins of error, kiss your stake goodbye.
6. Pyramid &/or doubling-up type schemes, kiss your stake goodbye.
7. Pay close attention to the gossip, or 'noise', kiss your stake goodbye.
8. Split your stake amongst several systems, because you didn't do the homework, kiss your stake goodbye.
9. Remain optimistic no matter what, kiss your stake goodbye.
10. Dwell on what I - and others - say.... kiss your stake goodbye.

Score: one positive (no.1), nine negatives.

Figure the odds.

But a very few do profit. Listen more than speak, keep an open mind but a tight wallet, and trust your own research not other's hot air.

Good Luck

Captain Max

[gattaca]

Hello Max.

Thanks for posting. It's good to have the bearish point of view so eloquently put, it reminds us all that sports betting is not easy to win at.

I think it's only fair to mention that you have paid for one of our team sport packages again this year, so you must have felt you got pretty reasonable value last year and that your returns were acceptable.

I know you haven't tried any of our individual sports like tennis yet and fair enough, if you're skeptical about the chance of making long term profits I wouldn't expect you to be interested.

However, we have plenty of clients who have given us good feedback about such sports and I don't agree it's as simple as writing down 9 points and then adding up how many are positive and negative. Too subjective.

I could just as easily write

1. Most fans bet on emotion. (Smart bettor gets overs and cleans up.)

2. At some sites you can not only get a big bonus when you join but 5% cash bonus every week. (Smart bettor only needs to break even to cream 5% on turnover.)

3. Due to internet competition on head to head sports, by hunting around you can usually get books down to under 104%, sometimes you even get arbitrages, especially at betting exchanges. Tony has 9/10 on "Super Specials" since the package started. (Smart bettor with good information waits for such opportunities and cleans up.)

Okay, I'm not seriously trying to argue that it's that easy to "clean up", but it is certainly possible to make a living from sports betting because people do it (and some of them are clients of ours.)

I just think it's too simplistic to list a whole lot of errors you can make and and only one positive and deduce that by comparing 9 with 1 you have shown that sports betting is too hard.

Your purchase of a package for two years running shows that you are not quite as pessimistic as you sound either :smile:

Anyway, appreciate your thoughts. At OZmium we do like to stress that, as you point out, it's no walk in the park to make money from betting. It requires discipline and skill. Otherwise everyone would become a professional punter instead of working a boring desk job.

But it can be done, and it's what we're all about at OZmium. Many people are going to gamble anyway even if they're net losers, so if we can ensure that they get substantially better returns than they otherwise would have, we've still been of benefit to them.

Guy West.
Managing Director OZmium Pty Ltd.

[Mr J]

I'm very disciplined, and have very good money&risk management skills.

I know it's not easy, but I have the $$$, management skills, and believe I can develop my capping/sports skills to able to make a living off it.

I have alot of experience in gambling (mainly BJ), which are an advantage.

If I can get a good level of capping skill, and have good judgement on who to trust woth picks, I'll have all I need to be successful with this.

With a large BR, and having a good strike rate (with my own or other ppls picks), even a conservative bet size would net me nice profits.

[Mr J]

So getting decent lines, picking winners and managing money&risk is the name of the game???

[becareful]

Max,

I was just wondering why you believe single person sports like Tennis are unsustainable profit wise (point 4)? Whilst I wouldn't try to do it all myself (too much work tracking all the individual performances) with Tonys ratings I have found it very profitable so far. He seems to be able to find consistant good value bets.

[becareful]

For those who are interested in the results of the Tennis Package I have added a page to the tipping website with the results for this year for the Propunter Tennis Package.

You can have a look here:
http://www.tlcbc.com.au/PropunTennis.htm

My current POT for this year is around 16%.

Please note that the bets listed were all recommended bets from the package but that it is not a complete list of the recommended bets as I have only listed the ones I actually put money on. I missed quite a few, particularly in the last few weeks, as I was too busy some evenings to read my emails (by the next morning it is usually too late to get the bets on!).

[Mr J]

I missed quite a few, particularly in the last few weeks, as I was too busy some evenings to read my emails (by the next morning it is usually too late to get the bets on!).


Do you have any idea how those picks went? Do you feel that if you had managed to place all bets you would profit more?

That said, 14 units ain't too bad. I'd be placing larger bets, and they'd be a % of my BR, so generally would grow expontentially. Ahhh SB will be a nice change. Could live off it (live off BJ atm).

[Mr J]

Just think, if you had used a %unit instead of a flat rate unit, and started with 100k BR.....and had wagered on ALL of the bets provided :wink:

[becareful]

Mr J,

I do have a list of all the recommended bets but I don't know how many of them would have made Tony's recommended price as I don't have the actual prices bet by the bookies for each match. I think the bets I have made have been fairly representative of the overall performance so if I had made all the bets the POT would probably still be around the 15 - 20% level (but, of course, I would have had more turnover so would have been better off in actual profit).

I have been increasing my bet size as the bank has grown and my confidence in the information has increased. From now on I am going to make more of an effort to get on every bet so hopefully the bank will continue growing exponentially!

Another thing to note is that Tony does provide a price for every match played so you do not have to stick only to his recommended bets. Several of the other guys using the service picked up a great bet last week when one of the players that Tony priced at about $1.80 was offered by the bookies at over double that price.

[becareful]

For those who are interested I have just updated the website for the bets from the first round of the Miami tournament. There have been some more good results with 6 wins from 8 bets lifting the total profit to almost 20 "units" and the POT to 19%. The update is at:

http://www.tlcbc.com.au/PropunTennis.htm

The strike rate for the bets I have placed is currently 64% (48 winners from 75 bets) and the average dividend has been $1.80. However if you look at the bets of 2 units or more (these are the ones that Tony is very confident will win) then the strike rate is an amazing 95% (22 wins from 23 bets) with an average price of $1.43 and a POT of 36%

_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-03-21 12:56 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Well, I wasn't going to start SBing until the end of this year.

A much larger profit can be made than in BJ (part of how I make my money at the moment) and has a much longer lifespan than BH (making alot of this right now).

I'm only 20 and CC opportunites are limited in Aus (can't go to the US, I just turned 20). Be much better off forgetting BJ
and putting my whole BR off into SBing. Still, I need to get a feel for it first.

I guess I'm just cautious and want to learn more about SBing etc. I guess experience probally quickens the learning curve. Should probally start of with a small amount (like $100 a bet). Still, I want to maximise my opportunities, and will feel stupid for not betting larger. The eternal and internal conflict for months to come.

It's not as if I have to make alot of money at it at first. I've got 2 years expenses saved, a large BR and a nice self financed german car.

Ha, all that in 2 years...who says gambling is bad.

[TheDuck]

Those who don't know how to do it, Mr. J, those who don't know how to do it.

[Mr J]

On 2003-03-31 14:03, TheDuck wrote:
Those who don't know how to do it, Mr. J, those who don't know how to do it.


Ha yeah. That'd be most people.

[Mr J]

Ah, Becareful, if only we all picked up that tennis package. I'm looking at starting it in July, and hope the good results continue. Hopefully it's not going to be a slow second half...

Would've made some good money so far..

[Mr J]

Becareful, looking at picking up the tennis package for the 2nd half of the year. I'd be very happy for it to get close to the first half's results.