Massive Plunge

[michael]

Dear All

I have a very good friend who works for a leading Melbourne rails bookmaker and I spoke to him today in an effort to get free tickets for the big race.

And I quote "Mate we won't be there Oaks Day if Big Pat wins the cup. I've never seen this much money change hands."

So if you like to follow the money there it is straight from the bookies mouth.

Good Luck

Michael

[Muybridge]

He had a strong finish in the MV cup and avoided the hard surface on Saturday. 6kg below WFA and easy win in the SA Derby in May.

[michael]

Muybridge

I just spoke to him again and the money is still coming for Big Pat. He is predicting huge amounts of back betting late on Big Pat.

I quote "all the big professionals want a piece of Big Pat. We are hoping like hell the general public and mug punters back something else."

Its going to be fun.

Michael

[Piggy]

I prefer to follow Lucky Lil.
She's a legend.
She gave five favourites as being no good on Saturday and got every one right.
She has made Big Pat one of the lays of the day.
I'm not an expert, but I did also notice that Big Pat has very low average prize earnings. That must mean something.

[michael]

Dear All

Here is a run down of the card according to a leading Melbourne bookies assistant and how it effects there pockets. I will only give the horse number and his comments.

1. No interest
2. High volume small bets. Public elect.
3. Scratched. Brilliant for us re doubles
4. No interest
5. No interest
6. Small spec bets, best backed overseas horse
7. Blowing in the wind.
8. Has been backed by a few in the know
9. No interest
10. No interest
11. No interest
12. No interest
13. Solid money and momentum growing
14. Money starting to come, solid
15. Will keep safe, huge tip around that this will be supported very very big late
16. By far our worst result so far. Huge big bets
17. No interest
18. Has been specd
19. Solid but nothing huge
20. No interest
21. Very small spec bets
22. Ok. Solid small bets
23. Money starting to come, nothing huge
24. No interest

Good luck and good punting

Michael

[Mr. Logic]

What a dud plunge. Lucky Lil was right making Big Pat a lay of the day.

[michael]

The moral to the story is

"The more you bet the more the bookmaker wins"

[michael]

Sorry forgot to mention

See you Oaks Day !!!!

Ha Ha Ha

[thomas]

you sure damn well cant win betting on the tote mate, I've tried for years. I'm with Mr Logic.

[michael]

Dear Thomas

By perchance you might be right you might be wrong !!!

Let me suggest there are three bet types that you should consider using in your armoury if you are a hardened tote punter.

1/ Quaddies
2/ Running Doubles
3/ Trifectas

As I've previously pointed out it is very hard to beat the bookies at there own game, so why not play in an enviroment where the punter is looking for a get rich quick bet. If you can take a systematic, logical approach, always trying to seek maximum value you may just have a chance.

I think Piggy is right and Lucky LiL is onto something. I will tell you how I use the free information this site provides to help me make a few dollars from the tote.

I've noticed Lucky LiL is a seeker of value and likes to lay certain favourites in certain races. I love those thoughts.

Lets start off with the Quaddie. Forecasting what a quaddie should pay is simple. All you have to do is take the final prices of the four legs, multiply them and you get what I call the "Theoretical Value"(TV). Now here is the key, the Quaddie never pays this amount of money. So we have what I call the "Actual Divy"(AD) that's what the Quaddie actually pays. So if the AD is consistently higher than the TV I have VALUE for my punting dollar.

Unfortunately, history tells me sometimes it is, sometimes it is not. So I looked for a common thread.

Bingo !!! The favourite is the common thread. Lay one in any leg and 99 times out of a hundred we will get value.

Now lets look at the free advice Lucky LiL gives me. Lets take Cox Plate Day.

"Here are my value bets at Moonee Valley: "
"R5 no9 Nova Clause "
"R7 no4 Referral "
"R9 no8 Weasel Will "

Race 7(2nd leg) and Race 9(4th leg) are two legs of the quaddie and Lucky LiL wants to lay the favourite in both. She only has to be right in one and I'm getting value for my punting dollar.

Cox Plate Day Quaddie
1/ $5.7
2/ $3.3
3/ $3.6
4/ $10.1

TV = $684 AD = $1109

In fact Lucky LIL was right twice and as an added bonus she gives me the winner of the last leg. However, I have some key rules you must follow.

1/ Don't lay all favourites
2/ Rule out all 25/1 and over chances
3/ You wont get every quaddie so don't let one miss deter you
4/ Keep your investment smallish ie $30-60


I'm not going to discuss the reasons in full. Lets say too much free advice could effect my pocket.

Hope this helps. I'm looking forward to the experts discussing this further. I'm always keen to learn from people smarter than me.

If the demand is high enough I will give my thoughts on the other bet types I mentioned.

Good luck and good punting

Michael

[mac]

very interesting thoughts michael. As I'm new to this game, I'm prone to silly questions, like this one...

Given what you have said above, lay *some* favs, and over 25/1, you still end up with 3-5 horses per leg. Over a quaddie this gives you 81 to 625 combinations (3*3*3*3 to 5*5*5*5).

What am I missing here?

I too am interested in thoughts from those smarter than me (which eliminates my goldfish).

I have tried Wins, Quins & Tris over the spring and I'm happy with the Quin & Win results so far. My trifectas havent quite cut it yet...So I'm tring to maximize the value. I work out my book for a race picking my top 2-5 horses. If the tote is paying better than the odds I have worked out I back it for a win as it is good value, if not, I back it in a quinella with my other bets to improve it's value. Not a great betting system but it's beating anything else I've tried.

cheers,

mac

[michael]

Yes Mac thats right.

Before you have done any form analysis you have each leg down to 3-5 chances. Sure does save time and energy. I never claimed you could get away with NO form analysis. Come on, winning can't be that easy.

Lets take Flemington today. Without saying to much there is a super obvious fav to lay in one of the legs.

Luck Lil gets it wrong today, but who cares, remember I dont have to lay ever favourite.

Flemington Quaddie 8/11/2001 today
TV = $1854 AD = $4186
OOps it did it again what a surprise.

Good luck and good punting

[etbh]

anyone care to explain how a quaddie works?

[mac]

The quaddie (quadrella) is where you pick the winning horse in 4 races nominated by the TAB(all in advance of the 1st quaddie race).

In my post above, I gave the example where through your analysis on a race you pick 3 likely winners. Well with a quaddie, you need to do this 4 times. If you end up with 3 horses in each race with 4 races to choose, then the combination of bets is 3 * 3 * 3 * 3 which is 81 bets costing you a minumum of $40.50. Of course if you are able to narrow it down to 2 horses per race then you are only up for 16 bets. Either way, it's not a huge outlay when you consider yesterday's quaddie paid over $4,000. Assuming you picked the right horses :smile:

[peekay]

If you want to have seen a good plunge by informed punters (stable?) then look no further than Suzy Grey at Flemington yesterday. The bookies were hit hard and very late, I personally witnessed a couple of huge bets, which had the bookies whinging.
Always a danger when the interstaters come to town. Look at tommorrow's Emirates fields and you will see a few are still here looking for the last of the carnival money.

[michael]

Dear etbh

Mac has given an excellant explanation of what a Quaddie is in practical terms.

Another subtle way to consider a Quaddie is a "all up bet" on a pre determined set of races. With the subtle diffrence being the dividend paid. See my explanation above, focusing on what I call the "theortical value" and the "actual divy".

This is how you can extract some value, if you know what to look for.

Because as Mac says you have to lock in your selections prior to the first leg or race starting. With the first leg normally being around race 5ish.

As Mac also explains you can take multiple combinations to win. Normally this is done by what is referred to as "boxing the combination." for a set stake. Minimum stake being .50cents with no maximum stake. As your combinations vary so does your outlay.

I'm not a huge lover of boxing but if time does not permit or I feel lazy, I do box. I prefer to take single combinations for varing amounts of money. The tote operators hate you but who cares.

Good luck and good punting

Michael

[etbh]

thanks guys,

now i understand.
ET