Lay Outsider System

[michaelg]

I've returned to one of my faves - that is laying outsiders.

This one is different to my other ones because it provides much more action.

Over the past seven days there's been 127 selections for 127 smiles which is an average of 18 per day, and it doesn't interfere with my laying the field method.

I'll list the selections and hope the Forum Curse does not attack it.

Toowoomba
4/7
6/12
7/13
8/5

Hawkesbury
2/12

Geelong
6/3
7/3

Albany
4/1
6/10
7/11

[The Ocho]

Good luck with it MG.

But outsiders :eek:

[michaelg]

I know, laying outsiders can be heart-attack material.

But doing this has made me a fair bit of money. On Monday I transferred $8,000 from my Betfair to my bank account. Maybe I've been very lucky, and that could now easily change.

[The Ocho]

O man. That's a nice transfer. I think I transferred $200 once. :(

[Raven]

O man. That's a nice transfer. I think I transferred $200 once. LOL!

[michaelg]

Not a bad start. After one scratching there were 9 selections for 9 smiles. One of them ended up at the maximum price of $1,000 yet it was only $168 on the TAB. I've never come across any TAB divvy (winner or loser) to pay around $1,000 or even remotely close to it. Maybe for more of a level playing-field Betfair could consider reducing their max price of $1,000 to $500 or whatever, even though a $1,000 winner would be a very attractive promotional tool.

Laying each of today's selections for a liability of $33 produced a profit of $3.88.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Ipswich
3/4
6/17
7/9

Coffs
3/2
4/8
5/14
7/12
8/4

Mornington
5/10
6/8
7/8
8/15

Canberra
2/9
6/14

Cranbourne
5/5
6/1

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. There were 16 smiles from the 16 selections for a profit of $17.02.

[norisk]

I seem to remember a winner in a pommy race many many years ago @ $1000 on BF.

Probably a once/twice a decade type scenario which is still probably often enough to retire the layer, psychologically if not financially;), not one to mention to your mates about down the pub I would have thought.

[Merriguy]

Michael,

I'm not sure of the logic of your 'outsiders' picks.

Why is it that you choose only one in the races you are going to operate on? For instance in yesterday's Canberra Race 6 you chose one horse (14) whereas there were horses 3, 9, 13, and 15 all over 30 to 1 too (and none of them got even a place).

I realise that this means you have 5 horses against you instead of 1 (if you lay them all); but they were all as unlikely to salute as the one you chose (given the prices). After all there were 15 horses in the race anyway!

In the other Canberra race (race 2) there were only 8 starters (so 6 to oppose your choice); and I can see the wisdom of not choosing more than the one in that case.

[michaelg]

It's a selection system I use to lay the worst-rated horse in certain races that have to adhere to a couple of (logical?) rules.

In the testing period there were 127 selections for 127 smiles, and since listing the selections here there have been 25 selections for also 25 smiles. So I'm hoping...and also enjoying it. Depending on my gut-feeling/opinion I often increase the size of the bets. Over the past two days my profit is approximately $350, but that could easily change.

I'll list today's selections later.

[Merriguy]

Thanks for that, Michael. Makes sense.

While I have not a way of rating the horses, I do believe that the market is a strong indicator that you can trust --- and like yourself I have been doing OK recently (touch wood)!

Was going to ask if you multiplied your bets in some way --- the returns seemed rather insignificant. Guessed you must have been operating somehow like that.

A couple of weeks back Angry made a suggestion about what to do with races in which there is an odds on fav.. Have found that valuable too.

Good luck today.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Merriguy, and you too.

The price of the selection isn't too important because I'm laying them for a fixed amount. The selections are not necessarily big outsiders, and some of them have even started at single figures. For convenience of the results for this thread, I use a fixed liability of $33.

Today's selections:

Eagle Farm
3/12
4/15
6/15
7/10
8/15

Rosehill
3/8
4/5
5/14
6/1
7/15

Moonee Valley
1/7
4/11
7/11
8/14

Morphetville
2/8
5/13
6/13
7/1

Gold Coast
2/2
3/7
5/12
6/15
7/16

Newcastle
6/12
8/13

Werribee
3/3
4/11
7/5

Sapphire Coast
6/13

Tamworth
4/11
6/3
8/10

Ascot
1/6
2/1
3/13
7/15

Dubbo
3/1

Toowoomba
1/9
4/3
5/6

There are 40 selections, providing none are scratched. That amount is quite scary...

[michaelg]

A good day. There were 40 smiles from 40 selections for a profit of $33.00.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Randwick
3/11
6/10
7/3

Sale
5/1
6/12

Wagga
6/12
7/11

Sun Coast
4/11
6/9
8/7

Narracoorte
1/6
4/8
5/6
6/5

Pinjarra
5/5
8/9
9/8

Wangaratta
4/12
6/12
7/2

Devenport
4/4
6/9
7/3

[Merriguy]

To be absolutely accurate, Michael, it was 39/39 yesterday. Eagle Farm 6/15 was a late scratching. Still not bad though!!!!!!! Best of luck today.

[TheSchmile]

Hi MichaelG,

Regarding Narracoorte race 6 no. 5, should the selection be no.9?

The Schmile

[Mark]

Will end in tears. 2 or 3 winners and it's all gone. Good luck though.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Merriguy.

I don't know what happened but I recorded it as a smile, for a profit of $0.19. I think I might have made the mistake because I had multiple bets in that race.

The Schmile, maybe we have a somewhat similar selection method but the Narrocoorte R6 selection is definitely no.5. After now confirming it as the selection I hope it doesn't win.

Mark, true but at least it can currently withstand about 5 accidents. I'm hoping the selection process and filters are worthwhile...time will tell.

In fact, I'm betting (not laying) another method that has some connection to the Lay method, and it's showing a good profit without the huge liability.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. There were 23 smiles from the 23 selections for a profit of $16.28.

[The Ocho]

Going along very nicely michaelg. Well done.

[michaelg]

Yes. No accidents yet...touch wood.

Today's selections are:

Lismore
3/12
5/6
7/13
8/14

W'bool
6/11
7/1
8/7

Orange
5/13
7/13

[michaelg]

At last, an accident.

There were 8 smiles from 9 selections for a loss of $29.62.

Since starting this thread last Thursday there have been 95 smiles from 96 selections for a profit of $41.50.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Townsville
2/6
3/7
6/8

Gosford
2/5

Kyneton
4/7

[michaelg]

The five selections were beaten for a profit of $2.16.

[MikeJonze86]

Any selections for today mick?

[michaelg]

Hi, Mike.

I see someone is interested in the selections, even though that's all it might be because it's understandable that only few people if any might be laying them.

Last night I transferred another $2,000 into my bank account due to the profit I've been making from the method. After saying that I hope it does not now crash.

Dombeen
5/1
7/6

Warwick Farm
5/11
7/13

Sandown
1/10
3/6
4/8

Gawler
6/10
8/13

Ascot
6/10
7/15

[AngryPixie]

Last night I transferred another $2,000 into my bank account due to the profit I've been making from the method.

Michael

Your clearly staking more than the profit/loss figures you post here then.

[michaelg]

Yes, A.P.

For convenience I'm using the nominal liability of $33 per selection to record the results just for this thread.

Depending on the selection I will decide if to increase or maintain my minimum bet. The accident on Monday was ridden by D.Griffin which made me uneasy so I fortunately layed it for my minimum. There's also been some good jockeys on the selections, and even though they've been smiles with healthy profits my bets have not been substantial. Also, if their form in my opinion is strong I will not bet too heavy.

[TheSchmile]

Nice to see you knockin' em dead Michaelg!!

The Schmile

[michaelg]

Not bad day. The 11 selections became 11 smiles for a profit of $5.93.

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi Michaelg,

Thanks for the earlier post regards MR. I will now change to backing the top 2 chances as I see them on the nose(only taking overs) and see how this goes. Who knows, I may even make it the local track one of these days and give the bookies a bit of 'what for' LOL!

Regards your results here, very impressive! If I am correct, you are running several rules to pick out the right races for each meet and 1 or more filter systems to weed out & confirm "the worst" in the field, with no immediate panic regards the long odds for each selection - irrespective of where they end up at the jump?

Are you able to give me a simple explanation for the staking method for the lay bet on BF? I am new to this side of the fence = it feels like putting my pants on backwards just to think about the concept of laying a horse (unintended visual aside!)

cheers LG

PS what also interests me is that you appear to have created opportunities to simultaneously back and lay in the same race thereby reducing the overall exposure-liability? (a 'push-me-pull-me horseplay'
and lets not go with too many visuals on that one either LMAO)

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

Yes, I pick the "right" races and then apply a couple of filters to weed out the worst chance in the race.

Laying via S.P. is not a worry because even if the selection ends up being the biggest outsider I can only lose $33 (this is liability for each selection I use for the purpose of recording the results on this thread) but not with real betting. The only drawback with outsiders is that the profit is minimal.

I have no staking method - I lay each selection according to my opinion. But I do have a minimum liability and will increase on this according to my opinion. For example, for the purposes of this thread today's profit was $5.93 with level $33 liability lay-bets, but my real profit was about $100 with having different sized bets. The higher I might bet if I think the horse's chances of winning are slim.

I no longer back and lay (only lay) because the results are too hard to accurately determine, and I prefer laying.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks mg

Your SR looks phenomenal, something akin to a high yielding online bank account ticking over with interest - the only risks I see being the bank falling over (too many successive longshots get up?) or the opportunity cost is too great (better use of funds elsewhere?)

If we assume that 'accidents' remain low and far between, perhaps as part of the holy grail of betting systems, we also have a low yielding money management system that generates an inflation busting return on funds lying idle in the bank = high smiles all around?

Surely it would make business sense(subject to current leglislation) for the likes of BF, TBA et al to make use of a pool of idle funds, in a similar way.

Just my thoughts.

LG

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

Yes, the strike rate so far has been phenomenal.

I identify the "right" races by applying only one rule - and that is every horse in the race must have had at least three career starts. Then I apply two simple filters.

I've also been looking at a second "outsiders" lay method based on the above rule. I started about a week ago using it here, in the U.S. and in the U.K. and so far it has a 100% strike rate. The overseas bets are still small ($33 liability) but the Oz bets are somewhat substantial.

[Merriguy]

Is there any "rule of thumb" regarding what the return might be? Yesterday Sandown, race 1, layed your suggesion and one of my own (9 and 10) for $200 --- the return was a magnificent $2.43!!!

Don't mind a risk; but it would have been heart attack material had one of them got up, and eventually they will. While other races were better, it seems that the risk/reward ratio is too slanted towards BF.

Thanks --- and Good Luck.

[michaelg]

Merriguy, I don't have a rule of thumb.

Almost all the smiles will provide an extremely small profit, but there's been one or two, not many that have started at single figures. I just persevere and hope over the long run it'll be successful because of the selection method.

Today's selections:

Rocky
1/2
2/4
5/13
6/13
7/5
9/11

Wyong
2/7
5/6
7/14

Ballarat
4/9

Geraldton
6/10
7/12

Cranbourne
5/5
6/1
7/11

[Merriguy]

THought that might be your answer! Anyway Good Luck today.

[jose]

Wyong 7????
#4 = 2 starts.

[jose]

Meant to add I hope it gets beat for you.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. There were 15 smiles from the 15 selections for a profit of $5.29.

[Lord Greystoke]

Bank still ticking over like clockwork?

LG

[michaelg]

Yes, L.G.

I didn't give much chance to most of yesterday's selections and consequently had some large bets. I ended up with a profit of $300.

My luck can easily change for the worse but at least its heartening that the selections so far have also a poor Place record which could indicate the selection process is not too bad.

[Lord Greystoke]

Morning mg - good news that the bank is still happy!

I am convinced you have mastered the art(or you are closing in) on finding 1 horse with the worst chancing of winning, using a simple lens to focus on the 'wrong runner' in the 'right race'

If I may ask, have you found that ~

a. a horse placed in its previous run has an increased chance of being placed next up?
b. roughies seem to get up more often on metro tracks?
c. long shots at the bottom of pre post betting which subsequently firm into single figures at jump do not necessarily have a better chance of getting up than any of your other selections?

My Qs come from a different direction ie how to pick the right horse in the wrong = overlooked race, but feel that we both have something to learn here, albeit from opposite ends of the same or similar lens!

LG

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

I don't really have answers for your three questions, all I can give is my opinion/experience.

a) I'm currently working on a Place system. One of the rules is that the selection must be placed at it's last start. There's been 11 days of real betting for 36 placegetters from 47 selections for a 28% POT (my TAB account is smiling). I've also applied the system rules to those selections that were unplaced at their last start, and the results are "in the red".

b) Unknown

c) Also unknown. However out of curiousity I often look around midday at the TAB prices of most of my lay selections, and because of their prices (one or two have even been faves) makes me feel somewhat uneasy because I think my ratings are out of whack. However with more money in the pool they ease to become an outsider. I can't remember if the reverse in the price scenario has happened to any of them.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Rosehill
2/11
3/8
6/9
7/16
8/17

Caulfield
2/12
3/10
5/19
6/16

Dombeen
1/6
2/10
5/8
7/11
8/3

Oakbank
1/6
2/5
4/9
6/13
7/13

Gold Coast
1/7
5/7
8/11

Taree
4/11
7/12

Kembla
2/6
4/9
6/13

Tatura
3/2
5/8
6/10
7/7

Wagga
3/2
4/7
5/7

Toowoomba
1/9
4/9
6/6

Ascot
4/8
5/5
7/2
8/12

41 selections.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. There were 40 smiles from the 40 selections for a profit of $22.49.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Sun Coast
4/12
5/2
7/6
8/14
9/19

Nowra
1/2
2/4

Mornington
4/1
5/8
7/11
8/14

Penola
4/7
5/2
6/4
8/9

Mudgee
2/7

Stawell
1/2
5/4
6/8
7/13

Albany
5/11
8/9

[michaelg]

A terrible day today. There were 2 accidents from the 22 selections for a loss of $36.58 which fortunately still leaves the method with a healthy profit.

I made a mistake. If a selection is resuming from a spell then it becomes a no-race. One of the selections (Stawell 5/4) was resuming from a spell and I unknowingly failed to notice it - it turned out to be an accident. Because I listed it here as a selection I have to record it as one, otherwise the loss would have not been great and would have only just about wiped out yesterday's profit - bummer!

[Lord Greystoke]

I hear you Mg.

The fact that you (a) fess up in here to the 'mistake' and (b) restate the correct rule is proof of your focus and credibility. IMO... you have the right lens here and none of us are machines, at least not all of the time?

Respect.

LG

[michaelg]

Thanks, L.G.

It's not too difficult to make a mistake, I've done so a few times with the method (and other things) by not identifying selections, and so far they've all been smiles, but we're all humans and we all make mistakes. And try as hard as we might, we will continue to to do so...can be a worry.

In spite of today's two accidents I still had a good day with laying the other selections.

[Lord Greystoke]

Ps I also noticed that one of your selected races yesterday(Caulfield?) produced mostly long shots into the frame and i wondered why this race could be so different to others.

Took me a little time but then I noticed the difference(compared to the other races you were laying) ... it was riddled with 4+ FU's if my memory serves me correct?

Wondered then if perhaps this is the kind of race that will throw up far too many surprises for one's peace of mind when laying at such long odds?

LG

PSS Is your place system still paying dividends?

[michaelg]

I have looked at races where there are quite a few resumers but could find nothing consistent with laying and also betting. I think someone on this forum also investigated it but from what I remember it fizzled out.

My Place system has lost over the past two days, but not too much of a loss. It is showing a current POT of 18% for a 73% strike rate. Quite a few losers have run fourth so I'm hopeful. It's still early days.

[Bhagwan]

Well done Michael.

Can I ask what you do if there is 2+ qualifiers

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan.

There can only be one qualifier because of the rules. It's still early days with only 67 selections. I had thought of revealing the rules but decided to wait a little longer which is fortunate because it has gone into a bit of a slump. Hopefully its only a temporary one.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are (I've double-checked none are resuming),

Eagle Farm
4/7
5/16
6/2
8/16

Randwick
4/10
5/2
6/12

Caulfield
1/1
4/10

Oakbank
1/2
2/9
3/5
5/10
6/9
7/10

Muswellbrook
2/14
3/14

Devenport
4/8
6/5
7/10

Pinjarra
5/5
6/9


Seeing that there is some interest in the Place method I'll list today's selections and hope they go better than they did over the last few days:

Devenport
2/14

Eagle Farm
6/8

Oakbank
6/7

Pinjarra
1/11
3/9

[michaelg]

Another terrible day. There were 2 accidents from the 21 selections.

Unfortunately I made another error, as I did yesterday. I don't lay Hurdles because there aren't enough of these races to gauge an accurate-enough market, and I failed to notice Oakbank 6/9 was one.

Because of the two errors over the past two days the method is now break-even. The test period had no accidents, and including that period the method is still in profit, so I've just got to be very careful from now.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Townsville
4/9
5/6
6/13

Grafton
5/11
7/9
8/14

Wodonga
6/7
7/6

Cessnock
1/2
3/7
7/4

[michaelg]

There was another accident yesterday, however the method is still in front.

I'm going to change the selection process because some of them are fancied in the market, and consequently these smiles are quite profitable.

I've been looking at the top selection in the neurals (default/factory) settings, and use one filter.

Over the past three days there have been 28 smiles from 29 selections. About half of them started at single odds, so the results have been quite acceptable.

I'll give it a go today and hope the success continues.

Ascot
2/1 (currently odds-on with Betfair)
6/1

Balaklava
2/3

Bendigo
1/12
6/13
8/7

Dombeen
3/8
4/6
6/6

Goulburn
2/12
3/2
8/3

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. In spite of two accidents, the result from the remaining 10 smiles was an overall profit of $8.00.

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi Mg, good to see you are back on track with this.

Are you still placing with success, too?

I have had some success on this front as well of late, but find that rather than targeting a 'place chance' (if there is such a thing), it is more profitable to target the best value pick of the top chances - seems to bring home a reasonable place divi.


LG

[Bhagwan]

Hi Michaelg,
I have found with any high priced lay plan , that stronger results are to be had if one only targets races with 11+ runners.

Any less & anything can fluke a win.

Also try not to lay any runner that has not run before.
They have a habit of surprising.

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

I no longer bet the Place method because my interest is dead at the moment, only focusing on Laying. But that may change.

Bhagwan, yes, the results are not too bad with the larger fields but the smiles produce only a very small profit.

However, since Sun 1/4 I've been closely looking at 11 and under fields because I'm strongly under the impression the value is better when laying outsiders in these smaller fields.

I'm using a method with only two filters. Since 1/4 there's been 122 smiles from 122 selections, and only one smile ran third. My bets have become quite large and am profiting between $50 and $100 per day. The only drawback is that I have to be at the computer.

[Bhagwan]

Thats great if you have found a filter that seems to work.

That's a pretty good test so far.

Especially being <=11 runners

The average price will usually be more attractive, due to being a smaller field.

I usually like to see these stats in groups of 150 bets, so as to have a broader picture.

Another rule that I find that works well with this idea ...
Min price has to be >= 5.00
Because sometimes they can end up being 1st or 2nd Fav in live market, then go on to win.

So far, it appears to be producing some fine results.


Can you say at this stage Michaelg what the filters are?

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, at this time I'd prefer not to reveal them. - sorry. However if they continue to perform and you are still interested I'll give you the rules privately.

It currently has a 100% success rate in the U.S. and U.K but because of the rules it makes it somewhat difficult to identify the selections, and I have to make an "educated " guess.

[michaelg]

Out of interest, laying yesterday's twelve selections for a liability of $33 produced a profit of $8.00. And backing them for $1.00 on Unitab also produced a profit, of $10.40

Today's selections are:

Ballarat
5/8
6/1
8/15

Hawkesbury
5/4

Sun Coast
2/9
3/4
7/10

Kalgoorlie
1/1
3/3
4/13
7/3

[michaelg]

Kalgoorlie 7/3 is scratched. The replacement selection is no.1.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. There were 10 smiles from 11 selections for a profit of $26.12.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Canterbury
5/12
7/8

Cranbourne
3/7
6/8

Geelong
8/5

Ipswich
5/5

Canberra
2/10

[michaelg]

A losing day. There was an accident from the 7 selections for a loss of $11.24.

After three days there have been 26 smiles from 30 selections for a profit of $22.88.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Ascot
5/3

Flemington
6/7
8/9

Gold Coast
2/3
7/11
8/8

Hamilton
5/11
7/9

Morphetville
7/5
8/12

Newcastle
4/10

Toowoomba
4/4

[lomaca]

Today's selections are:

Ascot
5/3
Hi Michael, Using the Neurals
I wonder if you take into account the race distance/Race track combination?


As I mentioned I'm running a programme continuously putting in different combinations of factors and find that some distances on certain tracks are simply unprofitable.
I only record results where there were at least a 100 races qualifying.

It mystifies me why this is so? One would think that a rating is a rating is a rating? Should work regardless of distance or racetrack?

Strange.

[michaelg]

lomaca, I think the neurals are based on statistics, however I've seen horses having their first start get more CF, CP, TIM and DIS points than other horses that have raced.

It is really puzzling...

However it seems that their top selections overall are not too bad. One of my lay selections today won paying $30 on the TAB. If I can remember correctly some time ago I layed the top selection in every race on a particular day, it was a disasterous day.

[michaelg]

My lay Outsiders method is still going strong. However, I lost my records because of a computer glitch and had to restart from last Saturday. All I can recall is that since beginning the method on 1 April (easy to remember the date) there have been no accidents. I'm quite sure there have been more than 150 selections;

I've been looking at a second Lay method (neural based) since last Sunday and there have also been no accidents.

I'll list today's selections and see what happens:

Geraldton
1/7
3/8

Morphetville
1/1
2/1
3/5
4/1
5/9
7/11

Rocky
1/8
4/7
5/12
6/8

Werribee
1/3
2/1
3/6
4/9
5/8
6/6
7/10
8/11

Wyong
3/7
6/8
7/11

[Merriguy]

Is there no SP on B/F today????

[TheSchmile]

Hi Merriguy,

It appears that there is.

Check your settings when you click on a particular race and make sure the box just above the race fields on the left-hand side marked 'Betfair starting price' is ticked.

The Schmile

[Merriguy]

Thanks Schmile...there now; but I'll swear it wasn't there a half hour ago!! Will have to get those cataracts done urgently.

[TheSchmile]

Could've been a 'Ghost in the machine' :D

The Schmile