Late Mail and Top Tips

[Shaun]

Just something i was playing with today, ran this test from Mon 16-Sun 22

Rules

Must be the tipped as first selection for both Radio Tab and Guest Tipster and must also be the Lat Mail selection.

Must be 3 divis paying


Venue Race No Runner Win Place
ARMIDALE 1 1 BATTERED 1.70 1.20
ARMIDALE 3 2 SUTTON SURPRISE 1.00
ARMIDALE 6 2 EMAZON 1.70
TAREE 1 2 HYENA 1.30
KILMORE 4 5 HADRON 1.80 1.00
KILMORE 7 2 ANKLETS
SANDOWN 5 6 LE REMAS 3.60 1.70
WERRIBEE 7 4 FRUEHLING 1.90 1.40
CRANBOURNE 2 8 SUBTLE CHARM 1.90 1.10
CRANBOURNE 7 8 CHAMPAGNE RUBY 2.70 1.70
CRANBOURNE 8 10 POISONOUS PRINCESS
MORPHETTVILLE 5 8 SARCASM 4.10 1.80
MORPHETTVILLE 7 6 SHEILA'S STAR 1.30
MORPHETTVILLE 8 6 BELDARA 4.40 1.70
ASCOT 1 1 MISS SOLIS 1.50 1.10
ASCOT 3 7 KALAHAAR 2.50 1.60
ASCOT 5 3 MASCHINO 1.30
GOSFORD 5 7 PURRFECT 1.30
GOSFORD 6 7 MACARTHUR BULL
GOSFORD 7 12 HALLOWELL BELLE 1.40
BALLARAT 4 4 ARLINGTON PARK 1.30
BALLARAT 5 1 SYLVAN POWER 1.50
QUEANBEYAN 2 7 GEECUP
QUEANBEYAN 4 5 GAME SET 'N' MATCH 3.10 1.50
QUEANBEYAN 5 1 DUBAI RULER 1.40 1.30
QUEANBEYAN 9 3 PEAL OF BELLS 2.90 1.60

Selections 26
Wins 13 SR 50.00% Profit 4.80 POT 18.46% A/Div 2.58
Places 22 SR 84.62% Profit 7.50 POT 28.85% A/Div 1.35

[mattio]

Be careful there Shaun, these type of selections would be hugely overbet in my opinion. I would be testing for a few months to get a more accurate guide.

[bernie]

You can't be serious Shaun?

Tell you what I do. Before I post any simple idea that is going to excite people, I go back to the start of the year and check the results. I can guarantee that as you go through the months you will find you are onto a loser.

[TheSchmile]

I can guarantee that as you go through the months you will find you are onto a loser.
Can you really Bernie?

If so please put up the results post-haste.

Can I please ask that before you react so negatively to ideas and systems, that you do a little research yourself?

There's actually a fine system based around these rules if one sticks to the metro races only, that made a profit 10 out of 12 months last year and a tidy profit overall. It took me a few solid days of manual research to figure it out so unfortunately I won't be posting it here.

Thanks for sharing Shaun. :)

The Schmile

[bernie]

There's actually a fine system based around these rules if one sticks to the metro races only, that made a profit 10 out of 12 months last year and a tidy profit overall. It took me a few solid days of manual research to figure it out so unfortunately I won't be posting it here.:)
TheSchmile, you seem a little confused. I said a "simple idea like that". You have based a system around those rules. Different scenario altogether mate.

[Shaun]

You can't be serious Shaun?

Tell you what I do. Before I post any simple idea that is going to excite people, I go back to the start of the year and check the results. I can guarantee that as you go through the months you will find you are onto a loser.


Do you think i am going to post a winning idea?

You could do a lot worse than follow a system like this, as much as i hate betfair these days they do offer better prices on the place option at times and using the 3 tabs to secure the best price place option is not a bad idea.

This was a simple idea nothing says people can't expand on it to filter the losers.

The truth is the fav wins and places more often than any other runner and if you are able to filter out the losers you have a better chance at profit than most other selections.

[bernie]

The truth is the fav wins and places more often than any other runner and if you are able to filter out the losers you have a better chance at profit than most other selections.
I agree, but easier said than done. Many have tried and many have failed.

[Chrome Prince]

I only looked at Late Mail selections a year or so ago and did a bit of an analysis over a few months.
They did end up losing quite a bit, however, they have really good or really bad patches.
Some days they win all over the place, other days not a cracker.
I guess with some extra filters you could weed out a lot of losers.

[bernie]

There have been heaps of posts related to the Late Mail. Many in which Shaun was involved. Wesmip did an in depth study and Partypooper has done his share of research along with many others. It's all there for those who are prepared to search.
<!-- / message -->

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for sharing your findings Shaun.

If one is considering using any real money, its up to the individual to do their own checking & possible improve on the general idea & make it their own.

That's the whole idea of sharing certain findings.

I sense a mean streak developing here.

I believe there is no need for uncharitable comments , otherwise no body, especially the newbies ,will put anything up for consideration.
Thus making the Forum empty as a ghost town.

[bernie]

Posted by wesmip1 July 2010

UNITAB

1st selection of Radio tipster
1st selection of Guest tipster
Late mail
Must be all the same tip



Ran it over my entire database and got a loss of 11%. This was over 5000 selections.<!-- / message -->
<!-- controls -->http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/buttons/quote.gif (http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=204670) <!-- / controls -->
<!-- message, attachments, sig -->

[bernie]

Posted by Try Try Again November 2009

1st selection of Radio Tipster
1st selection of Guest Tipster
100 pointer

It shows a high win strike rate (40% to 50%), but unfortunately it only breaks even at Best Tote.

[TheSchmile]

TheSchmile, you seem a little confused. I said a "simple idea like that". You have based a system around those rules. Different scenario altogether mate.
Hi Bernie,

I get your point.

My point is that from Shain's idea there is cream to be had, so it is worthy of posting.

The Schmile

[Shaun]

I think it is a good idea that people can run a test over these sorts of systems at least it gives us an idea of what we are up against.

If you have a suggestion Bernie of what we should be discussing that makes profitable sense then post up a thread so we can get it going.

[bernie]

Shaun, if I had the answer I wouldn't be here.

[TheSchmile]

Wesmip1 put up an interesting thread regarding unitab tipster polls.

It was something like:
Must be 3-5/6 year old gelding
Under $3 SP
99-100 rater

Had a monster strike rate with very selective tips.

*Play a little two-up for the Anzacs today and have a pony or two in their honour. Lest we forget.

The Schmile

[bernie]

Wesmip1 also posted this one in 2006 and according to UB's system tester it is still profitable.

1. Unitab Rating = 100
2. Last start 4th or better
3. Cannot be resuming
4. Barriers 13 -19

Results:
Selections: 1040
Winners: 252
WIN $1228

[Bhagwan]

RULES
100Ptr Uni TAB
Barrier 12+
Last start <= 8th
No Resumers. (<=89 days)

RESULT
25% SR
31% POT


There were 448 selections for the System
There were 442 races for the System
There were 112 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 25%
There were $587.38 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $139.38 or a percentage profit/loss of 31.11%

The Rules used were : barrier >= 12 and barrier <=99 and rating = 100 and lastStart <= 8 and daysLastStart <= 89

[Mark]

Do you think i am going to post a winning idea?



I did Shaun.
Still going strong, and I guarantee nobody here uses it.