Backing Opening Favorites

[Try Try Again]

Here is a simple system for backing the opening favourite (using Betchoice opening prices).

Only consider the Opening Favourite (no equal Favourites).
Aim to collect a certain amount, say $20
Use the opening price to determine your bet, say opens at $3.00
Bet will be 20/3 = $7 (always round up)
If bet loses new Aim will be 20 + 7 = $27
Follow the same process for next race if no winner proceed for a third race which ends the series irrespective if a winner is found or not. Start again next week aiming for $20

If bet wins end series and start again next week aiming for $20.

A winning bet always ends the series irrespective if you do not cover your outlay.

If the next race has equal favourites, ignore race and proceed to the following race to continue process.

Example

1/1/2011 Randwick

Wakanda opening price $2.60 ..aim $20 ..bet $8...loss
Glissade opening price $2.40 ..aim $28 ..bet $12..win $2.50..collect $30.00

Outlay $20
Collect $30
profit $10

Results of Saturday meetings in Melbourne and Sydney since 1/1/2011 are:-

Melbourne (aiming for $20)

149 bets
55 wins
36.9 % S/R
Bank $216.55
13.5% POT

Sydney (aiming for $20)

137 bets
53 wins
38.6 % S/R
Bank $144.05
9.1% POT

I have not looked at other Metropolitan races nor have I looked at Country or Provincial races.

[Try Try Again]

It worked well today at Flemington and Randwick-Kensington.

Flem

R1 Unpretentious Open $1.70.. Aim 20..bet $12 Loss
R2 Maluti............Open $4.00.. Aim 32..bet $8 Loss
R3 Somaly Miss....Open $3.60.. Aim 40..bet $12 Won $4.60

Outlay $32
Collect $55.20
Profit $23.20

Rand-Kens

R1 Toydini...Open $2.50...Aim 20..bet $8 Won $3.30

Outlay$8
Collect $26.40
Profit $18.40

[TheSchmile]

Nice one Try Try Again,

Interesting idea! Keep us posted as to how you progress during the year.

Are your prices based on top totes?

The Schmile

[Shaun]

I had a look at this but used the betfair fav, did well in most venues so far.

[Try Try Again]

Thanks The Schmile and Shaun,

Dividend is best of tote or SP.

As I said I haven't looked at it other than on a Saturday meeting in Melbourne or Sydney but it should be okay at other meetings throughout the week.

[Shaun]

Your not able to get past results for openers?

[Try Try Again]

Looking at the meetings today the results have been:-

Flem.....Outlay $32..Collect $55.20...Profit $23.20
Kens.....Outlay $8...Collect $26.40...Profit $18.40
Toow....Outlay $18..Collect $40.00...Profit $22.00
Geel......Outlay $8...Collect $18.40...Profit $10.40
Bath.....Outlay $7...Collect $18.90...Profit $11.90
Gawl.....Outlay $25..Collect $37.50...Profit $12.50
Gosf.....Outlay $29..Collect $34.20...Profit $5.20
Pinj......Outlay $29..Collect $0.00....Loss $29.00

Days result

Outlay $156
Collect $230.60
Profit $74.60
POT 47.8%

Dividends for country meetings are best of NSW and SuperTab.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Shaun,

If you go to the Betchoice website and click on Results and then Past Results you can get whichever openers for whatever meeting you want.

[mattio]

I had a look as well using the AAP pre-post prices and IAS Super Price, here is what I found (figures are rounded):

Flemington
Outlay - $6
Collect - $38
Bets - 1

Randwick
Outlay - $7
Collect - $23
Bets - 1

Toowoomba
Outlay - $21
Collect - $48
Bets - 2

Geelong
Outlay - $9
Collect - $20
Bets - 1

Bathurst
Outlay - $26
Collect - $40
Bets - 3

Gawler
Outlay - $25
Collect - $33
Bets - 2

Gosford
Outlay - $23
Collect - $19
Bets 3

Pinjarra
Outlay - $27
Collect - $78
Bets - 3

Total Outlay - $138
Total Collect - $299
Total Profit - $161
S/R - 50%
POT - 116%

Again it is interesting to see results from different pre-post favourites. Providing the liability is limited to a 3 bet sequence this could have some potential, well done Try Try Again.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Mattio,

I think Flemington races would certainly have been 3 bets as Unpretentious (race 1) and Maluti (race 2) were beaten before Somaly Miss won race 3.

This is using the prices on the way2bet site which was given another thread as being the AAP prices.

But your results look great, especially as I didn't get a result at Pinjarra and the AAP pre-post had Background as the $3 favourite - and it paid $6.40 as best of NSW & SuperTab - a great result.

[mattio]

Sorry mate, you are right about Flemington, I just double checked and I was looking at the wrong set of prices. I'll have to do a double check on them all now to make sure I have the rest right.

[Try Try Again]

Just checked yesterday's results.

Casino
1bet +$21
Geelong
3bets -$35
Wagga
1 bet +20.80

Profit $6.80
POT 12.8%

[Try Try Again]

Monday's results were :-

Grafton
1 bet +$17
Kyneton
3 bets -$50

Loss $33
LOT 48.5%

[Try Try Again]

Results since Saturday have been

Sat Outlay $132 Profit $93.70
Sun Outlay $125 Profit $13.70
Mon Outlay $68 Loss $33.00
Tue Outlay $53 Profit $6.80
Wed Outlay $156 Profit $74.60

Therefore since Saturday we have had 1 losing day (Monday) and have made a Profit of $155.80 at POT 29.1%

I would have to say it looks promising even if you bet each day although the "better quality" meetings of Saturday and Wednesday have given the better results on this limited research.

More results are required!

[Dale]

Ive been playing around with this idea but using pre post favs for a couple weeks now, best advice i can offer here is think about race type.

Maiden races can have a high strike rate with favs but are they pre post favs or openers or the ones who start race fav?

Could it be that the better saturday and wednesday results are due to the early races not being all maiden races on those days?

[TheSchmile]

I really like this idea Try Try Again as it factors in the price of the fav and using the target of $20 is easy to execute.

Plus, most days it would be 2 hours work max.

Food for thought indeed!!

My mind is racing now.....

Thanks again!!

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

I've been thinking about the possible runs of outs, an going on the strike rate of fav's in the first 3 races of around 35%.

One can assume hitting a run of outs of 16-17 during the course of our investments (based on the list Bhagwan provided some time ago)

Mattio, do you have the average loss per run of 3 losses over the course of your research to calculate a starting bank?

The Schmile

[woof43]

I've been thinking about the possible runs of outs, an going on the strike rate of fav's in the first 3 races of around 35%.

One can assume hitting a run of outs of 16-17 during the course of our investments (based on the list Bhagwan provided some time ago)

Mattio, do you have the average loss per run of 3 losses over the course of your research to calculate a starting bank?

The Schmile
Run of outs formula depending on your confidence Log(.005)/Log(1-S/R%)
S/R=strike rate%

[enjay]

Not quite in line with original idea, but I have just ran a test for all days this month so far every venue, first 3 races targeting final SP fav.

Races Bet: 382
Races Won: 159
S.R./Race: 41.6%
% P.O.T. : 4.7%

Best day by far were Sunday and Monday

Sunday 96 bets for 43 winners strike 45% 5 OUTS 12% POT
Monday 39 bets 18 winners strike 46% 3 OUTS 33% POT

Sat showed 96 bets for 41% strike and 12 OUTS 4% POT

Also food for thought.

Enjay

[TheSchmile]

Run of outs formula depending on your confidence Log(.005)/Log(1-S/R%)
S/R=strike rate%

Cheers Wolf,

Unfortunately in my teens I was a the class clown and was most probably flirting with my girlfriend during this maths period, while perusing the form guide with my good eye. :D

Might need a wee bit of help here with the formula :o

The Schmile

[Bhagwan]

Well done Enjay.

Thanks for sharing those findings.

The POT may have been stronger using the Pre-post or Bookies opening prices because of the possible lower price being used as the divisor & possible snagging an overlay price on say Betfair.

Bookies opening price ,is generally, fairly low, thus the potential for greater overlay prices being secured , thus greater POT.

Using those Decimal odds instead of Fractional odds as the divisor into a
Take-out figure is a strong way of keeping those outlays to a more manageable level .

Especially when confronted with an Odds-on price.
Example.
Decimal odds as divisor--- 1.70 into 20.00 = O/L 12.00
Instead of ..
Fractional odds as divisor --- .7/1 into 20.00 = O/L 29.00

If this where to fall over , it would take a lot more resources to recover using Fractional odds as divisor.

This approach will usually work if using a different source for our divisor prices over a short run of outs .

If one wants more control again , just use bet sequence 2 2 3
as in say 10 10 15
That way you know your max liability up front.

But get the general idea for SR.

Thanks once again Enjay.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Schmile.
The answer is approx 6 outs in a row using a 3 bet sequence.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Bhagwan,

Cheers for your response.

Though I was more wondering the total average loss over three bets, using the divisor to work out a bank as total loss with 3 losers in a row would likely end up around 4.5-5 units.

I'll roll with 35% SR and 5% POT, Av Div is 105/35 = $3 and work it out from there.

Cheers mate and have a great Thursday.

The Schmile

[Bhagwan]

Looking at the average outlay betting to take out $20

Average appears to work out at approx 21.00 per venue .

Seeing that the theoretical run of outs comes to approx 6 sets of 3 bets.

Have a min bank of 12 x 21.00 = $250

Only double take out fig. once bank doubles & you should be right.

[TheSchmile]

Nice work Bhagwan.

Much appreciated.

The Schmile

[Try Try Again]

Thursday (today) was a disaster with 2 wipe outs from the 3 meetings

Mornington....Outlay $48...Collect $0........Loss $48
Rockhampton.Outlay $22...Collect $22.10..Profit $0.10
Wyong..........Outlay $31...Collect $0.......Loss $31

Loss for today $78.90

I also looked at the previous 2 Saturday's results
14/4 Profit $35.70
7/4 Loss $151.60

I think what may have looked promising could get "very ugly, very quickly" if we are unable to hit our winner in the first 3 qualifying races at each meeting. On the 7th April there were 5 "wipeouts" out of 12 meetings hence the large loss.

I think it's back to the drawing board!

[mattio]

Not necessarily back to the drawing board mate, on most days the first 3 races at meeting will generally contain a lot of maidens and unraced horses which make for very bad betting races. I have a friend who is vice president of a race club and they always program the weaker races first as they attract less interest so you want to get them out of the way.

Even on Saturday's the first 3 races are generally 2 yo, lower benchmark races, etc so maybe go back over the past few weeks and do it for the last 3 races at each meeting. Also you could simply choose the 3 highest class races at each meeting and see how they go.

[Shaun]

I did a test using something similar for my choice of fav and this whole set produced a 1% pot

This is a weeks worth of races.


Venue Race Outlay Return Profit/Loss
ARMIDALE Race 1 29 50.00 20.59
MILDURA Race 3 75.02693966 0 -75.02693966
TOWNSVILLE Race 2 49.44178628 76.31578947 26.87400319
TAREE Race 3 75.12077295 0 -75.12077295
KILMORE Race 1 23.80952381 50 26.19047619
EAGLE FARM Race 3 70.51282051 0 -70.51282051
SANDOWN Race 2 79.86111111 70.83333333 -9.027777778
STRATHALBYN Race 1 21.73913043 50 28.26086957
MT BARKER Race 1 20.83333333 50 29.16666667
LAUNCESTON Race 3 74.38016529 0 -74.38016529
ROCKHAMPTON Race 1 16.66666667 50 33.33333333
WYONG Race 2 71.42857143 70.83333333 -0.595238095
WERRIBEE Race 2 79.86111111 91.66666667 11.80555556
MORPHETTVILLE Race 2 47.36024845 71.73913043 24.37888199
GERALDTON Race 3 131.512605 0 -131.512605
IPSWICH Race 3 101.048951 0 -101.048951
SCONE Race 2 50.17006803 73.80952381 23.63945578
GEELONG Race 1 27.77777778 50 22.22222222
CRANBOURNE Race 2 71.20743034 79.41176471 8.204334365
EAGLE FARM Race 1 14.28571429 50 35.71428571
RANDWICK Race 1 12.5 50 37.5
CAULFIELD Race 2 31.0421286 65.15151515 34.10938655
GOLD COAST Race 2 50 75 25
KEMBLA GRANGE Race 2 43.95604396 69.23076923 25.27472527
BENDIGO Race 1 27.77777778 50 22.22222222
MORPHETTVILLE Race 2 36.70634921 63.88888889 27.18253968
ASCOT Race 1 33.33333333 50 16.66666667
TOOWOOMBA Race 2 54.56349206 70.83333333 16.26984127
SUNSHINE COAST Race 2 42.98941799 67.85714286 24.86772487
GOSFORD Race 3 101.035444 90.62126643 -10.41417762
BALLARAT Race 1 35.71428571 50 14.28571429
NARACOORTE Race 1 20.83333333 50 29.16666667
QUEANBEYAN Race 1 17.85714286 50 32.14285714
NARROGIN Race 3 60.78025917 0 -60.78025917
WODONGA Race 1 17.24137931 50 32.75862069

[TheSchmile]

Long-term this method will only work if there is a POT at level stakes.

One could argue that backing a maiden fav on a heavy 10 track is bordering on lunacy. So leaving Mornington out the damage was minimal today.

Running at a 35% SR we can expect around a 72.5% strike rate of wins per sequence with this method.

Food for thought. :)

The Schmile

[Shaun]

This was my above results using Unitab prices.


Selections 35
Wins 25 SR 71.43% Profit 19.41 POT 1.13%

[Shaun]

I think if you go and start picking and choosing races you will erode the natural strike rate of the fav runner.

[Bhagwan]

It was a pretty funny day for Favs in general today. (Thur 26th Apr)

There were large runs of outs for favs 3.00+

Funny ahh.

This is what can happen where the Favs have been running hot for a while & the stats tend to balance themselves out with days like this.

Don't be too surprised if it repeats itself tomorrow.

Its not a bad idea to sit it out, until it evens out a bit, if chasing the Favs.

If one is using a Bot , set it into Sim mode & let it run to do its thing.

It comes back to the fact that Horse racing is not an exact science .
It just gives us the impression that it can be ,with the patterns that it presents and the static yearly percentages, that rarely change.


The 3rd Favs have had a very torrid run lately , now watch to see a number start getting up with horrible form , to get to its historic average of 15%

The same with 2nd favs.

The stats will not be denied

[garyf]

That's why i only will bet Favorites in my ratings at certain tracks.

I posted an article several weeks ago about this,
Some tracks are almost double the L.O.T. compared to normal,
Others are half the loss some almost break even.

At the really bad tracks eg Mornington in certain circumstances,
I will just dutch bet the next 2-3-4 in the market.

Especially when the favorite is =>$3.0 on a rain affected track.

Have no real explanation as to why some tracks are better for Fav's,
Than others ,Townsville has a small pool of horses that race there.
Albury usually attract large fields who knows?.

All that matter is it continues to happen this is possibly one way,
Of determining why there are good and wipeout days for Fav's.

Doesn't mean it's the be all end all just one possible theory,
To consider that's all.

Cheers.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Garyf,

I remember you posting the tracks, however I can't seem to find your post.

If you have a moment, could you possibly post them again? I'd very much appreciate it and will save them this time.

The Schmile

[Stix]

That's why i only will bet Favorites in my ratings at certain tracks.

I posted an article several weeks ago about this,
Some tracks are almost double the L.O.T. compared to normal,
Others are half the loss some almost break even.

At the really bad tracks eg Mornington in certain circumstances,
I will just dutch bet the next 2-3-4 in the market.

Especially when the favorite is =>$3.0 on a rain affected track.

Have no real explanation as to why some tracks are better for Fav's,
Than others ,Townsville has a small pool of horses that race there.
Albury usually attract large fields who knows?.

All that matter is it continues to happen this is possibly one way,
Of determining why there are good and wipeout days for Fav's.

Doesn't mean it's the be all end all just one possible theory,
To consider that's all.

Cheers.I posted a similar list regarding neurals performance at certain tracks.

I generally bet Provincial Tracks and Most Metro (no NSW or SA or Belmont)

Country Tracks provide the worst results, followed surprisingly by Metro Tracks (although skewed towards a few tracks) and then Provincial track perform best and on the main racing days as alluded to previously.

[Bhagwan]

It makes sense to me .

Punters handicap Horses.

Why not Handicap Racetracks.

The percentages are there to do it.

[garyf]

Hi T.S.

ROCK HARD (DALE)
Post=22+26.
Only some tracks are listed as a guide to the point i was making.

I agree Stix it certainly is one way of improving ones p.o.t.
And strike rates when applying a selection technique
Whatever that person may use (Ratings Form Mechanical etc).

"Handicapping a track" good use of words Bhags.

Cheers.

[TheSchmile]

Cheers Garyf,

Have a great day tomorrow!

The Schmile

[Chrome Prince]

It was a pretty funny day for Favs in general today. (Thur 26th Apr)

There were large runs of outs for favs 3.00+

Funny ahh.

This is what can happen where the Favs have been running hot for a while & the stats tend to balance themselves out with days like this.

Don't be too surprised if it repeats itself tomorrow.


Thursday was a particularly good day for me laying favourites, in fact one of the best. Today, it evened out again.
I am expecting a pretty poor strike rate from favourites on Saturday, but I could be wrong.

Thursday was 33.30%
Today was 35.50%

[rails run]

Running at a 35% SR we can expect around a 72.5% strike rate of wins per sequence with this method. Hi Schmile
Can you please explain the math here to get 72.5%SR over the 3 bet series?
Thanks in advance.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Rails Run,

My way may be a little convoluted but I'm confident it's right.

If your strike rate is 35%, this means the chance of missing a place is 65% (100-35)

So over a series of 3 bets, 65 x .65 x .65 = 27.46 (27.5% rounded) chance of hitting a loser over the series.

100-27.5 = 72.5% chance of hitting a winner over the series.

I hope it makes sense. Let me know if you need any clarification.

The Schmile

[Bhagwan]

Another alternative to chasing the first 3 races for each venue is this.

Target the RadioTAB top 2 selections for those 3 races at each venue.
Stopping once a winner is struck for each venue.

Betting 2 Horses a race.
Use a 60/40 split bet over those 2 horses.
60% of bet on the one you like.
It does not have to be the shorter price of the 2 Horses.

40% on the other.

Stopping at first winner for each venue even if there is a small loss.

Example.
3.00 + 2.00 = 5.00 per race.

Use your favourite handicapping technique to separate.
Try & go for value where possible.

These RadioTAB Top 2 win a lot of races in the first 3 races of the day.

If you can get that 60% bet on the right horse of the 2 , then you will clean up.

Treat it like a 2 horse race.

A number will be odds-on but it is not uncommon to see the other one knock it off a juicy prices.

Some of the winners have been double digit prices.

It may look simple, but its not easy picking the right one of the 2 Horses .

I feel you have a stronger chance of showing a profit doing it this way.
If you strike the right horse of the 2 selections.

Either way , you should not lose much if you consistently pick the wrong one, because you have the other one also working for you.
The SR will be approx 48% of one of these 2 Horses winning.

[mattio]

Bhagwan, do you have any figures to back up your claim of a 48% strike rate on this?

[partypooper]

Whilst I accept that there are many here much further down the "Track" than me (no pun intended)

I am amazed at how some dissect the Stats in this way, don't you realise that is exactly how the "Bookie" maintains his edge? i.e. don't think in terms of a Month or a year or a track or this and that etc etc etc

The FACT is that 30% of Favs win, overall over many thousands of results, providing a loss of about 15% ON t/o, LIKEWISE, 21% of 3-1 shots win showing a loss of , would yer believe it, about 15-16% on turnover etc etc etc. i.e the profit has already been taken folks B4 you have placed your bet!

Like the machine says : THIS MACHINE GUARANTEES TO PAY OUT 85%, meaning, this machine GUARANTEES to take 15% of every dollar that goes in the slot!! come ******** or high water!

[Bhagwan]

Yes I do.

[Bhagwan]

Yes party 30% of Favs win.
One could call it a recurring factor, one of the very few in racing stats.
But
Take out all the <=2.00 shots
and the figure becomes 25%

The Machine also makes another 3.5% on the rounding down of the nearest
10 cents which one if forbidden to do in the retail sector.
Yet legal in this instance- funny that
That then makes it now 18.5%
As shown in the Betchoice markets at the bottom for each TAB.

Most punters will find, when they eventually hit a winner, it generally pays less from when the bet was made on the TAB.
When it loses , its price becomes greater.
Why is it so?

There's a 90 sec loop of time for all bets to be settled.
Meaning the price can still change while the race is running, for the next 90 secs.

The TAB punter is certainly up against it with that stuff going on- crazy.

[rails run]

Hi Sir Smiley? Thanks for your explanation.

[Mike367]

I wonder what the results are for the last 3/4 races on the card?