An Easy way to check quality of race?

[Lord Greystoke]

IS API an Easy(and accurate) way to check quality of a given race?

See below for Randwick tomorrow(R&S - Form Guide Stats)

Race 1
Sharp James H B Carr Stakes $100,000 1400m
3F API:9.82 12:25 pm

Race 7
Tabcorp Queen Elizabeth Stakes $500,000 2000m
API:120.1 4:15 pm


Thoughts, suggestions welcome!


Cheers LG

[Bhagwan]

That is apparently so, in most cases.
Just make sure they have all had a run & there are no more than 4 resumers in the race.


Here is another simple approach for targeting a quality race...

Target races where there is 1+ Last Start winners in the field.
Not including resumers.
Make sure the whole field has had a run.

This works well.
Where the winners tend to run to form .

This is especially useful when looking at Country & Provincial form, where it can be tricky defining what a quality race is.

[Shaun]

Do you know how they work this out?

I use a similar method where i add up all the runners individual API then divide it by the total runners to get the average API of the race.

I find this useful for the lower quality races under Open events.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks for the input chaps.

Bhagwan, very helpful - I shall add these to my filters. I find that where there are 3 or more FU runners in a race, it begins to resemble a lottery (2 is manageable). Less surprises is better, as you say.

Shaun, I got pencil and paper out this morning and did 'a few numbers' on the API stat to try to understand what it is and then begin to examine it's value.

Looks like it is as simple as the following:

1. API for a given runner = total prizemoney over last 12m divided by 1000
eg 12,642 becomes 12.64 So not strictly an average as such

2. API for the race = total API factors for all runners divided by no. of runners = same method as you? ie an average of API factors across over all runners

The filters I have so far for quality of race, are as follows:

1. 1+ career starts for all runners
2. No more than 2 resumers
3. 1+ last start winner
4. Top Rated neural selection must be >= 130 (default setting)
5. Ignore F+M,M,C+G,Fillies etc - perhaps this is more about consistency!
6. Welcome to suggest others?

Haven't got a handle on API as yet but perhaps we can use it to compare two races where both have successfully made it thru 1-5 above BUT we only have 1 bet left in the kitty.. Pick the highest API rated race?


LG

[Shaun]

Sounds similar in ways, i use lifetime API as shown on virtualformguide mainly because this is the form i use.

The thing i like about working out API for the race is because you can then look at the individual API and use it like a field strength rating.

Say a runner has an API of $5000 and the average is $2500 you would say it is a lot better then the rest, this is just one idea to use.

[Mancunian]

Do you know how they work this out?

I use a similar method where i add up all the runners individual API then divide it by the total runners to get the average API of the race.

I find this useful for the lower quality races under Open events.

Yes - R and S do this for you ie the API in the Race Header is the average of the API of the runners in that race.

Funnily enough I've just been checking a few things in this area - and discovered that in the lower class races quite a few winners are coming from horses that have a greater API than the race average API, but most of the races contain 4 or 5 qualifiers, but a couple of good priced winners had cropped up.

I've already looked at todays races using the following rules
1. Races must have 7 or more starters
2. Eliminate races that have any first starters.
3. Eliminate races that have average API 2.00 or greater

Here is a list of the top 4 contenders with API above the race average :
Geel - r7 / 9.10.2.5.
Geel - r8/ 9.2.1.10.
Ipsw - r3/ 6.1.2.7.
Ipsw - r4/ 8.6.2.1.
Ipsw - r5/ 2.1.9.8.
Ipsw - r6/ 1.2.5.12.
Ipsw - r7/ 6.7.4.11
Canb - r4/ 8.1.9.
Canb - r6/ 6.4.
Canb - r7/ 3.7.1.5.
Canb - r8/ 2.3.8.
PtMq - r3/ 1.5.2
PtMq - r4/ 4.5.2.3.
PtMq - r6/ 1.3.5.4.
PtMq - r7/ 4.8.6.3.
PtMq - r8/ 1.3.6.2.
To me Friday is usually a bad day for picking winners (except for MValley).
but this is potential for "fun betting", with plenty of action on weaker class racing. Anyhow see how it goes today......
cheers...........Mancunian

[Lord Greystoke]

I've already looked at todays races using the following rules
1. Races must have 7 or more starters
2. Eliminate races that have any first starters.
3. Eliminate races that have average API 2.00 or greater



Hi Mancunian

From your post above, do you mean...

3. Eliminate races that have average API 2.00 or less ?

Would be interested to know why you find this level of API to be material.

Cheers LG

[Mancunian]

G'day LG
No, I did mean eliminate 2.0 or higher.
I've thrown that in because the bit of dabbling I had done so far, almost without exception couldn't get the winner, or the odd one that it did pick were at extremely short odds.
As you would expect, the average figure is heavily influenced by 1 or 2 extremely high individual figures which seems to distort the whole process - at this stage, on the limited amount of data I've got, those races fared badly while the very low averages were throwing up the winners.
I'm not dismissing anything at this stage but initial tests were showing :
API over 2.00 - S/rate approx - 25%
API over 2.00 - S/rate approx - 67%
so I'll concentrate on that at the moment.
cheers.....Mancunian

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks for clarification mate.

Love the contrary feel to your thinking being(if I have this correct)...

1. weaker races (API <2) on weaker race days
2. stronger selections based on API(runner)>API race average

If you are pulling in some nice little earners for 'fun' on what is normally a poor day for you, I take my hat off to you!

Just tried something out myself which seemed a little 'hare-brained' at first...

1. Had a couple of down days on trot here so decided to make it '1 bet Friday'
2. Looking at Canberra, Race 3 has highest API on the card
3. 2 top chances in my book being 1 & 5
4. 1. Court Connection has highest API of the 2 (fair price approx $3)
5. It drifts to 5's so I take 6 units to win (FR)
6. It salutes and I collect with POT = 400%
7. 'Shop' closed.. 1 bet Friday is a FU success!

I appreciate that the above example is 'past post' for the purposes of this forum (rather than a prediction before the event), but it's real enough in the coffers of my Uni-stab account so I am well happy.

Will be interesting to see how your idea pans out over longer term, as you said - even if its just a 'fun bet play' on a quiet rainy day


LG



LG

[mattio]

Yes - R and S do this for you ie the API in the Race Header is the average of the API of the runners in that race.

Funnily enough I've just been checking a few things in this area - and discovered that in the lower class races quite a few winners are coming from horses that have a greater API than the race average API, but most of the races contain 4 or 5 qualifiers, but a couple of good priced winners had cropped up.

I've already looked at todays races using the following rules
1. Races must have 7 or more starters
2. Eliminate races that have any first starters.
3. Eliminate races that have average API 2.00 or greater

Here is a list of the top 4 contenders with API above the race average :
Geel - r7 / 9.10.2.5.
Geel - r8/ 9.2.1.10.
Ipsw - r3/ 6.1.2.7.
Ipsw - r4/ 8.6.2.1.
Ipsw - r5/ 2.1.9.8.
Ipsw - r6/ 1.2.5.12.
Ipsw - r7/ 6.7.4.11
Canb - r4/ 8.1.9.
Canb - r6/ 6.4.
Canb - r7/ 3.7.1.5.
Canb - r8/ 2.3.8.
PtMq - r3/ 1.5.2
PtMq - r4/ 4.5.2.3.
PtMq - r6/ 1.3.5.4.
PtMq - r7/ 4.8.6.3.
PtMq - r8/ 1.3.6.2.
To me Friday is usually a bad day for picking winners (except for MValley).
but this is potential for "fun betting", with plenty of action on weaker class racing. Anyhow see how it goes today......
cheers...........MancunianHi Mancunian,

Not trying to put down your methodology but only betting races where the average API is less than 2 is a quick way to the poor house in my opinion. These are going to be mostly maidens with first starters (which goes against one of your rules) and very low class benchmark races, all of which make poor betting options.

Focus on the best horses in the best quality races and you will do much better with less opportunity for some donkey beating your selection as it invariably will in weaker class races.

Cheers,

Matt.

[Merriguy]

Agree with Matt.

Like to thank Mancunian for the thumbs up about the R&S site. Must have visited it a thousand times yet did't know that API facility was there!!! Actually Punters Paradise does a good job of indicating clearly what each horse's API is. Often use it myself.

Good Luck with the idea.

[Shaun]

I have to agree on better quality races, since i have been picking just the best races from each venue have done a lot better lately.

My chosen races today
Horse Racing / Ipsw (AUS) 27th Apr : R7 1350m Hcap
Horse Racing / Geel (AUS) 27th Apr : R7 2000m Hcap
Horse Racing / Canb (AUS) 27th Apr : R6 1200m Hcap
Horse Racing / Geel (AUS) 27th Apr : R6 1300m Hcap
Horse Racing / PMaq (AUS) 27th Apr : R5 1000m Hcap
Horse Racing / PMaq (AUS) 27th Apr : R4 1500m Hcap
Horse Racing / Geel (AUS) 27th Apr : R4 1100m Hcap
Horse Racing / Canb (AUS) 27th Apr : R3 1600m Hcap
Horse Racing / Canb (AUS) 27th Apr : R2 1400m Hcap

[Mancunian]

Hi Mancunian,

Not trying to put down your methodology but only betting races where the average API is less than 2 is a quick way to the poor house in my opinion. These are going to be mostly maidens with first starters (which goes against one of your rules) and very low class benchmark races, all of which make poor betting options.

Focus on the best horses in the best quality races and you will do much better with less opportunity for some donkey beating your selection as it invariably will in weaker class races.

Cheers,

Matt.

Hi Matt,
1. I'm not particularly looking at this method for the better quality races as I tackle them much more seriously (and with reasonable success).
2. One of my elimination rules is to leave out races that have any first starters.
3. If the race is restricted to maidens - a maiden has to win !
cheers ....Mancunian.

[Mancunian]

Here is a list of the top 4 contenders with API above the race average :
Geel - r7 / 9.10.2.5.
Geel - r8/ 9.2.1.10.
Ipsw - r3/ 6.1.2.7.
Ipsw - r4/ 8.6.2.1.
Ipsw - r5/ 2.1.9.8.
Ipsw - r6/ 1.2.5.12.
Ipsw - r7/ 6.7.4.11
Canb - r4/ 8.1.9.
Canb - r6/ 6.4.
Canb - r7/ 3.7.1.5.
Canb - r8/ 2.3.8.
PtMq - r3/ 1.5.2
PtMq - r4/ 4.5.2.3.
PtMq - r6/ 1.3.5.4.
PtMq - r7/ 4.8.6.3.
PtMq - r8/ 1.3.6.2.

cheers...........Mancunian

Results in the same order as above :
Lost
Lost
2 Won $4.50
8 Won $4.20
Lost
5 Won $16.50
Lost
9 Won $7.90
6 Won $3.10
Lost
2 Won $2.10
Lost
5 Won $2.00
1 Won $2.20
Lost
1 Won $4.80
summary 16 Races for 9 wins
all winners came from the 1st 3 selections
outlay $47 return $47.30
(Oh no - not another break even system !)
I'll look at it a bit more, perhaps on another off day.
cheers.....Mancunian

[mattio]

Hi Matt,
1. I'm not particularly looking at this method for the better quality races as I tackle them much more seriously (and with reasonable success).
2. One of my elimination rules is to leave out races that have any first starters.
3. If the race is restricted to maidens - a maiden has to win !
cheers ....Mancunian.Each to their own mate, good luck with it.

Cheers,

Matt.