The MEADOWS and friends

[moeee]

The MEADOWS Race 3

2 FERRARI BALE $2.6
7 GARRICK BALE $4.3
6 MAJOR NUISANCE $10.4
5 WONGAWILLI SIMON $10.8
1 AXELS $16
8 NORTHERN GUNNA $20
4 MARCUS GIRL $22
3 BEST PICTURE Res. $30

The top selections won't be Overlays so I suggest select them as an Exacta and try to bag the 3rd and 4th placegetters in your Exotics.
OR PASS THE RACE WOULD BE BETTER.

[moeee]

The MEADOWS Race 2

3 ELLIE BALE $3.8
2 LAROCCO $4.4
4 DYNA CARI $5.9
6 ZAMBORA LOVER $8.3
1 LEKTRA FRAZIER $15
8 ROQETTE $18
5 PHYLLIS ELLEN $20
7 FLASHING WISH $21

The top 4 selections are clearly better than the rest and I expect them to fill the First 4 home

[moeee]

The MEADOWS Race 4

1 COCKY BOY $4
2 NORTHERN TROUBLE $7.3
3 DARLIN BALE $7.8
4 SCORSESE $8.5
7 ETHEL BALE $9
5 EL CORLEONE $10
6 SURON UNDERCOVER $11
8 KRAKOUER MAGIC $16

There could be some Value about the 2nd selection here.

[moeee]

The MEADOWS Race 5

4 STRONG INTENTION $3.1
5 RYKER BALE $5.7
3 IN HIDING $10
8 DYNA FIG $10.7
1 TANIA TWO SHOES $10.7
2 PLANKTON $11.3
7 WICKED TRIP $14
6 ELDIS BALE $18

I like the Quinella the top 2 selections here

[moeee]

The MEADOWS Race 1

3 HENDERSON BALE $3
8 ONE LAST DANCE $3.3
6 GRIGORIEVA BALE $6.3
1 DYNA ALIVIA $15
2 ICEBOX $16
5 UP AND GONE $32
4 GREYWINDS FONZ $33
7 HARDY BALE Res. $45

Nice race for Exotics.
3 animals massive superiority than the rest

[moeee]

TRARALGON Race 6

4 LE PIPPY $3.3
1 HAMILTON SPEED $4
5 FLIGHT CONTROL $8
7 DI JAMAICA $11
8 ULTRA SPIN $12
2 VUVUZELA $14
3 IRON BRIAN $15
6 EARL THE GOAT Res. $270

I very much like 5 FLIGHT CONTROL to run a place here.
Probably second.

[moeee]

TRARALGON Race 5

1 MADAME PATRICIA $3.9
8 SEATTLE ROSE $6.6
4 DUCKY LEE $7
3 DR. TYE $7.3
2 FLAMING PADDY $8.2
7 STARRING NEO Res. $11.3
5 HUNGRY THIRSTY $12.8
6 DEZZADORE Res. $50

I have the top selection leading all the way here.
Will be an Overlay.
The proviso is that the second selection has trouble crossing , or more likely , misses the start agian.

[moeee]

TRARALGON Race 6

4 LE PIPPY $3.3
1 HAMILTON SPEED $4
5 FLIGHT CONTROL $8
7 DI JAMAICA $11
8 ULTRA SPIN $12
2 VUVUZELA $14
3 IRON BRIAN $15
6 EARL THE GOAT Res. $270

I very much like 5 FLIGHT CONTROL to run a place here.
Probably second.

Late Scratching makes the Market look like this

4 LE PIPPY $2.5
5 FLIGHT CONTROL $6
7 DI JAMAICA $8
8 ULTRA SPIN $9
2 VUVUZELA $10
3 IRON BRIAN $12
6 EARL THE GOAT Res. $200

[moeee]

TRARALGON Race 7

1 OPTIMISTIC STAR $2.2
5 TRIGGER FINGER $5.3
6 BIG FAST FAIRY $7.3
7 WHY NOT FRAN $16
2 ROZEHILL RASCAL $18
8 MATLOCK $20
3 SIXTEEN CANDLES $32
4 CANTANKEROUS $36

Hard to see the top selection not winning here.
Hard to see me missing the First 4 here.

[Raven]

The MEADOWS Race 1

3 HENDERSON BALE $3
8 ONE LAST DANCE $3.3
6 GRIGORIEVA BALE $6.3
1 DYNA ALIVIA $15
2 ICEBOX $16
5 UP AND GONE $32
4 GREYWINDS FONZ $33
7 HARDY BALE Res. $45

Nice race for Exotics.
3 animals massive superiority than the rest
Why is it I had #6 at $1.74 on times? I say that because someone else had #8 top pick over #3 and wasn't fussed on #6 at all. The fact it won means nothing. Track records are meaningless?

[Raven]

Why is it I had #6 at $1.74 on times? I say that because someone else had #8 top pick over #3 and wasn't fussed on #6 at all. The fact it won means nothing. Track records are meaningless?Re-ran that with my new averages for Vic, I still had it at $2.36 over #8 $5.05.
Perhaps I'm adjusting to much for checks.

EDIT:
Yep its the adjustments for checks

[moeee]

Its all about opportunity Raven.
Being a slow beginner from Box 6 does nothing to enhance the opportunity of Grigiora Bale from running up to its Record Breaking Form at bendigo.

Most figured that the 8 and I figured the 3 would get every chance from their draw.
It didn't turn out that way though.
This is the part of greyhound form analysis that very few people can get right and if you can get it right more often than not , you are winning.

[Raven]

Its all about opportunity Raven.
Being a slow beginner from Box 6 does nothing to enhance the opportunity of Grigiora Bale from running up to its Record Breaking Form at bendigo.

Most figured that the 8 and I figured the 3 would get every chance from their draw.
It didn't turn out that way though.
This is the part of greyhound form analysis that very few people can get right and if you can get it right more often than not , you are winning.
I know your right of course, but I'm still concerned with getting the base ratings right. I want to know who are the fastest dogs in the race first. Not adjusting for checks had #8 on top but those 2 had a class advantage on the rest.

[moeee]

Its been mentioned before that there are various methods that you could use to line up different tracks and distances.

One is the Track record.
I have found this of limited use.
Another is perhaps an average of the 10 best times recorded.
This is slightly better.

Heres another useful way , but only contains Victorian tracks.
It is the GRV Tier 3 Times.

I'll send it in my next post.
Race coming up :)

[moeee]

Take a Peek

http://www.grv.org.au/Participants/Ownership/OwnerGuide.aspx

[Raven]

El Corleone was weak :( good place bet i thought.

Thanks Mo, will read through that after the races.

[woof43]

Why is it I had #6 at $1.74 on times? I say that because someone else had #8 top pick over #3 and wasn't fussed on #6 at all. The fact it won means nothing. Track records are meaningless?
These are my Base Times for the above race.
1 30.694 0.182
2 30.758 0.261
3 30.491 0.241
4 30.740 0.247
5 30.971 0.439
6 30.456 0.318
7 30.624 0.335
8 30.332 0.322
Bendigo 500 your adding about 2.126 to the time to adjust to the Meadows, which does give the #6 a slightly better time then the #8. PPl would switch off the #6 when it has missed the start 71% of its races.
The trick with records is to look at the box the dog won from and if its cutting into the corner from wide, this increases the radius and allows the dog a faster than normal time whereas if it had entered the turn stuck on the rails.
Most track records are not from the #1 box but wide off the track or mid track.

[Raven]

The flaw was I was compensating for checks in the formguide. As you mention the #6 strikes trouble and as such was getting a bonus whenever that happened. I've learned something tonight.

My markets look a lot better without it now.

[woof43]

Raven,
If you are just looking at raw speed and your recording your results, gather all the dogs you can and have their average speed listed in a big ranking of best dog on top etc right down to the slowest.

Try doing a percentile rank of a rated race raw times then look at the absolute differences between each dog.
Think about this above paragraph it's golden to those who understand it's power.

[woof43]

The flaw was I was compensating for checks in the formguide. As you mention the #6 strikes trouble and as such was getting a bonus whenever that happened. I've learned something tonight.

My markets look a lot better without it now.

with comments in the form indicating interference, you select a dog with a lot of starts 80-100 isolate the starts with no "c1-c12" then you have a base time then group the C1-C5 look at those times avg so on an so this will give you some time parameters to work within.

[moeee]

Watch him raven - he can get very scary - can? make that usually.

[woof43]

Race 10
1 30.781 0.263
2 30.786 0.074
3 30.473 0.201
4 30.592 0.245
9 30.973 0.190
6 30.656 0.225
7 30.599 0.131
8 30.540 0.155
Raw times-
First step would be to adjust the #2 Stdev check how tight it is along with the #7 these are not normal.

[Raven]

with comments in the form indicating interference, you select a dog with a lot of starts 80-100 isolate the starts with no "c1-c12" then you have a base time then group the C1-C5 look at those times avg so on an so this will give you some time parameters to work within.
That makes a lot of sense

[Raven]

R9
Now I have Johnny Ringo at $2.03. But the speed looks iffy to me, can he clear them from box 8?

0/4 from the 8 :(

[woof43]

Race 9
1 30.721 0.303
2 30.765 0.226
3 30.780 0.313
4 30.634 0.249
5 30.811 0.244
6 30.503 0.200
7 30.792 0.253
8 30.412 0.226

raw speed times adjusted to 525

[moeee]

R9
Now I have Johnny Ringo at $2.03. But the speed looks iffy to me, can he clear them from box 8?

0/4 from the 8 :(

Can't and won't help you here with this.
Except to say that now your looking at the right things
well done

[Raven]

R9
Now I have Johnny Ringo at $2.03. But the speed looks iffy to me, can he clear them from box 8?

0/4 from the 8 :(
worried about nothing

[moeee]

RACE 10

3 TONY'S FAVOURITE $2.5
7 IMANI BALE $7.0
1 BIG MUMMIE $9.0
4 ALYSE ALLEN $9.1
8 CAREY BALE $11.7
2 UNPLAYABLE $14.4
6 PURE BULLICOURT $15.1
5 ROYAL DRILL Res. $50.5

[woof43]

you would have gone well tonight Moee,

some nice races there..

[moeee]

you would have gone well tonight Moee,

some nice races there..

I managed to mess things up as usual.
Not really , but tonight was more like the collects I did get were small and the somewhat more substantial wagers went down the toilet.

I had an obscenely good night last night so the swings and roundabouts effect had to kick in.

Wasn't a disaster but a loss anyway.

Peak $7,701
Current $7,357
Loss -$344

Catch youse tomorrow