Betting The Jockeys

[foxwood]

Has anybody else has considered betting jockeys rather than horses? The idea came to me while looking at a maiden field somewhere in the sticks and by far the best credentialled rider was D. Ganderton and he duly saluted. Stand out examples are not that common but the seed of an idea for a system was planted.
It occurs that there might be a greater disparity between the better jockeys and the lesser jockeys at country and provincial meetings than between the better and lesser jockeys at a city meeting and one might be able to make a profit by dutching the better jockeys at country meetings. In order to be able to compare the relative merits of the jockeys I would need some sort of form guide, by state, for them. I know the Sportsman used to publish such tables weekly in the Friday edition but does anyone know is there such a thing available online which is updated daily or weekly?
Thanks,
Ron

[TheSchmile]

Hi Ron,

You can get Jockey stats per track here: Racenet stats (http://racenet.com.au/Stats/)

Also you can get detailed jockey stats here:
Racingandsports (http://racingandsports.com.au/form-guide)
Click on the trophy icon to the left of the meeting name and a world of statistical goodness awaits!!

Hope this helps a little with your idea.

Cheers,

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Stats Townsville
Jockey Rides Winners Placings SR % Rides/Wnr
DALE MISSEN 72 18 42 25.0 4
ADRIAN COOME 92 18 45 19.6 5
D CROSSLAND 65 16 43 24.6 4
R SUE-SAN 26 5 15 19.2 5

An idea:
Interesting to note that Missen, Crossland and Sue-San aren't riding today. Might pay to follow Coombe?
His rides:
R3-1
R5-2
R6-7


The Schmile

[norisk]

Has anybody else has considered betting jockeys rather than horses?


I recall asking my old dad a similar question way back when, & getting a quick reply along the lines of 'quick way to the poor house' - never seen any evidence thats made me doubt that advice was wrong.

[foxwood]

Thanks for that The Schmile. Just what I'm looking for. Your heads up on Adrian Coombe was also informative and encouraging. His three starters produced (on Stab) :
a winner @$2.8 / 1.40,
a third @ 0.0 / 1.90
an unplaced @ $20.50

Considering he was the best credentialled jock at the meeting there could be something to work with here.

Cheers
Ron

[mattio]

Hi foxwood,

If I can give you a little advice on this it would be to look at other factors other than just the best jockeys at the lower class meetings. The trainer they are riding for can also be a good thing to look at also as far as profitability goes. As an example I ran a quick test on Damien Oliver riding at non metro tracks from 8/09 - 3/12, here are the results:

Rides - 290
Wins - 57
S/R - 19.7%
LOT - 23.2%

Overall there is a loss but when you look at how his rides were for certain trainers, the results varied dramatically. Here are a few examples:

Leon Corstens - 11 rides, 6 wins, 55% S/R, 53% POT
Lee Freedman - 5 rides, 1 win, 20% S/R, 64% LOT
David Hayes - 10 rides, 3 wins, 30% S/R, 96% POT
Mark Kavanagh - 37 rides, 7 wins, 19% S/R, 36% LOT
Colin Little - 13 rides, 6 wins, 46% S/R, 123% POT
Mike Moroney - 13 rides, 1 win, 8% S/R, 78% LOT
Mark Riley - 8 rides, 3 wins, 38% S/R, 173% POT

These are just a few examples but you can see how results can vary for a jockey from trainer to trainer for any number of reasons.

Good luck with your idea.

Cheers,

Matt.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Mattio and Ron,

Nice suggestion Mattio re trainer/jockey combo's. Some combinations are overbet and some consistently fly under the radar.

At the meat of the argument however, is that a slow horse is a slow horse no matter who trains it or who's riding it.

Perhaps start with the top ten trainers in Metro / provincial / country and their top 10 horses in training. This could be by wins, average prize money etc.

You can easily set up a blackbook on racenet or racingandsports.

Then demand a top ten jockey is on board or perhaps a top 3 jockey at today's track?

Food for thought.

The Schmile

[foxwood]

Thanks Mattio and TheSchmile,
Much food for thought and multiple trails to follow in what I thought was a very simple proposition. I shall take a couple of days to look at this in detail very shortly and will post any interesting findings on this thread.
Cheers
Ron

[The Ocho]

All this talk of food is making me hungry.

:D

[TheSchmile]

Hey there Ron,

If you want to get up to your neck in good things, go here:

Mistable (http://mistable.com.au/australian-horse-trainers)

Sort out the trainers you want to attack and you'll find a list of their current horses at mistable.

Use the racingandsports form guide to sort out the wheat from the chaff and the world's your oyster. :)

The Schmile

[The Ocho]

Now oysters :rolleyes:

I'm starvin' Marvin