Last start win system

[axledog]

Everyone here , hands up , who have had a shot at last start
winners systems. Myself included , have tried several times , and
come up with diddly sqwat. But , try , try again , i am attempting
probably another failed attempt , but i think this can work.
Taken some old favourite rules and then added some of my own.
Seems not to work in SA (heaven nows why?) but some good results
from other states only over 3 weeks.

LSW System.
Rule 1

Every horse in the race must have had 3 starts or more.

Rule 2

Must be a minimum of 8 runners in the race after scratchings.

Rule 3

Tick every runner that has won last start. All other horses are eliminated.
If no LSW eliminate race.

Rule 4

The horse for selection will be the one with less days since last start. If 2 or
more are equal lowest , than eliminate race.

Rule 5

The selection only remains active if ....................

This is where i am testing , Rule 5. This is the final rule , and the most
important. Has been positive over only 3 weeks (except south oz???)
but will continue to seek results and post when i can . (Time is evil)

Anyone that can come up with rule 5 on their own can make this system
work , but let me know if you do , LOL.

I once was told - What goes around , comes around. But if you go
round without sharing , your wallet may get big , but so to your belly.

[jose]

2 rules only.
1. LSW
2. DS rating = 1.

About break even.
Enjoy :-)

[Try Try Again]

Hi Axledog,

This has returned a POT% of 35.2% since 26th Nov 2011 but if you delete SA the POT% increases to 42.9%. I agree with you SA doesn't seem to work as well as the other states although it is only 2.6 units down up to last weekend.


Saturdays and Public Holidays only
>= 7 starts but < 30 starts
Win % >= 20%
Days Since Last Start <= 21 days
Prepost >=$2.00 but < $10.00
Unitab rating >= 94
Results (All)

262 Bets

66 winners

25.2% win S/R

Bank +92.15 units

POT% 35.2%


Results (without SA)

217 Bets

56 winners

25.8% win S/R

Bank +93.15 units

POT% 42.9%

If you delete any Slow or Heavy tracks (and no SA meetings)


Bets 167

47 winners

28.1% win S/R

Bank +94.55 units

POT% 56.6%

It is possible to have a winning system on last start winners but you need to whittle away the deadwood and concentrate on improving horses that are fit, consistent and favoured by the market.

How long before we see this "published" somewhere?

[TheSchmile]

Hi Try Try Again,

Does the selection criteria below start with a last start winner before applying the other rules?

The Schmile

[Try Try Again]

Hi The Schmile,

Yes, sorry I didn't list that rule because Axledog was talking about last start winners systems.

The system has its ups and downs but overall it has made a decent profit and the profit is still on an upwards spiral.

[TheSchmile]

Cheers mate.

Hope you back a winner or ten tomorrow!

The Schmile

[Try Try Again]

Hi TheSchmile,

How can I not with all these great systems!!

Hope you have a blinder tomorrow as well!

Try Try Again

[Lord Greystoke]

Try Try again,

Any chance you could short list the selections for tomorrow using this system(if any?) and post it here.. code name: "The 7-30 Report"


LG

[Bhagwan]

Nice piece of research Try Try.

Well done.

[Vortech]

I've been testing a paper system with LS Winner with the following rules

1. LSW
2. Starting Price Rank - 1
3. Runs this prep = 0
3. 33% Win (Distance / Going)
4. Min Price $3.00

Saturday Only

Anyone able to test?

[enjay]

Hi Vortech. If you had 20 systems like this would be OK.

Rules:-

FORUM TEST
Day of Week: 7
Dist. Win %: 33 - 100
Going Win %: 33 - 100
Runs this Preparation: 0 - 0
Last Start Finish Pos: 1 - 1
SP Price: 3.0 - 999.9
SP Rank: 1 - 1

For the last 12 months. :- including today

Races Bet: 9
Races Won: 4
S.R./Race: 44.4%
Outlay($): 9.00
Return : 16.80
$ Profit : 7.80
% P.O.T. : 86.7%

Regards
Enjay

[Vortech]

Thanks Enjay.

[Chrome Prince]

How about, has it won within 7 days ever before ;)

Some horses back up well, others do not.
That's well known in trainers ranks.

My horse Chrome Prince a gelding used to back up well and eat up his food.
My mare needed a break between runs, and would go off her food.

These were Picnic racers I had, but my grandfather was a leading trainer at Limerick in the 1920's.

[Vortech]

Especially Chris Waller. Check out his POT on Horses with a last start run of 7 days or less

[Try Try Again]

Hi Lord G,

Selections today are:-

M8#1 Star Of Giselle
S4#2 Marden
S4#6 Maximus Gladiator
S6#2 Western Symbol

If you want to include Heavy/Slow tracks then add

B1#4 Za Magic
B2#11 Triskele
B3#4 Rocker
B8#12 Mawingo
B8#13 Shez Sensational
B9#1 Easy Running

If you want to include SA then add

A3#2 Beldara
A5#3 Balzeus
A6#5 Ballypatrick
A7#3 Zabeelionaire

Good luck to all and may these horses run faster than all the others!

[Lord Greystoke]

You are a star player T 2

Picture me in a black cape and top hat, running up and down the grassy knol on each track like a nutter.. waving these fine things home.

God speed !

LG

[enjay]

[QUOTE=enjay]Hi Vortech. If you had 20 systems like this would be OK.

Rules:-

FORUM TEST
Day of Week: 7
Dist. Win %: 33 - 100
Going Win %: 33 - 100
Runs this Preparation: 0 - 0
Last Start Finish Pos: 1 - 1
SP Rank: 1 - 1

Scrap the Min $3 and back to Jan last year :-

Meetings considered : 2963
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 44.7%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 70.2%
Average Win Dividend : $2.39
Average Plc Dividend : $1.38


Races Bet: 47
Races Won: 21
S.R./Race: 44.7%
Outlay($): 47.00
Return : 50.14
$ Profit : 3.14
% P.O.T. : 6.7%

Av div $2.39 LRO =5

Enjay

[axledog]

Thanks TTA.

This is exactly what i was looking for!
Will play around and add some of your knowledge to
my own simple little system , thanks.

AD - Selections

SYD 6-2
SYD 7-4
MLB 6-1
MLB 8-1
GC 8-13
GC 9-1

----------

ADL 3-2
ADL 5-3

[Try Try Again]

With the downgrade of Flemington to a Slow track M8#1 Star Of Giselle would not be a preferred selection but would be supported if you are backing all selections irrespective of track conditions or location (e.g. SA)

[axledog]

Just home and checking results. So you dont agree with SA racing
as well TTA. Big races today might hinder future results. Give me 5
and we will see.

[mattio]

Last Start Winners is a filter that forms the basis of 6 of my current systems, all are in profit for the past 4 years to the tune of 42% POT combined with about 150 bets per year so it is definitely possible to make money from LSW.

[axledog]

It just so happens SA got us both out of trouble.
Small profit for me , including SA , a small loss without.
Continue to try both our systems , and see what happens.

Axles LSW
8 bets 2 wins (25%)
Out 8 - In 8.4

(no SA)
6 bets 1 win (17%)
Out 6 - In 5

[axledog]

Mattio ,

I only achieve small POT , but stay in the + . Using only basic
rules and limited filters , eek out small profits , but profit
none the less. Try Try Again has motioned me towards many well
managed factors to entertain my system , but many hands make
light work. Not asking , and never will , for your system , just a little
insight into why you chose LSW as one of the cores of your system/s?

[Lord Greystoke]

Impressive result yesterday Try Try

Not sure if you have posted stats here but I got...

7 selections (Excluding Slow/Heavy)
2 wins
2 seconds
1 third
2 unpl

Have you nailed a staking strategy as yet or is this still in test mode?

LG

PS You also nailed a WIN from a wet track = Shez Sensational $5 !

[Try Try Again]

Hi Lord G,

I double my bet if the qualifying horse started 7,14 or 21 days ago. Logic being that it has started on Saturday class race previously rather than a country or midweek class.

After yesterday's races (betting all qualifiers i.e. not eliminating SA or Heavy or Slow tracks) the results are:-

One unit on all selections

Bank +92.45 units
POT % = 33.5%

Betting extra unit on qualifiers starting 7,14 or 21 days ago

Bank +164.20 units
POT % = 36.1%

Yesterday there was an increase in the bank of 3.6 units

[mattio]

Mattio ,

I only achieve small POT , but stay in the + . Using only basic
rules and limited filters , eek out small profits , but profit
none the less. Try Try Again has motioned me towards many well
managed factors to entertain my system , but many hands make
light work. Not asking , and never will , for your system , just a little
insight into why you chose LSW as one of the cores of your system/s?Hi axledog,

I go back to a quote from Don Scott (and others I am sure) that sums it up - "Winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing". I like to find winning systems and I just found that last start winners was a good place to start. If you add the right filters then some good systems can be had.

Intersting fact also - favourites who were last start winners have a long term strike rate of almost 34% which is about 2% higher than normal.

Cheers,

Mat.

[mattio]

Hi Lord G,

I double my bet if the qualifying horse started 7,14 or 21 days ago. Logic being that it has started on Saturday class race previously rather than a country or midweek class.

After yesterday's races (betting all qualifiers i.e. not eliminating SA or Heavy or Slow tracks) the results are:-

One unit on all selections

Bank +92.45 units
POT % = 33.5%

Betting extra unit on qualifiers starting 7,14 or 21 days ago

Bank +164.20 units
POT % = 36.1%

Yesterday there was an increase in the bank of 3.6 unitsHi Try Try Again,

Good logic with regards to the idea of horses that have raced on a Saturday last start but this is logic that probably most punters would also look at which can quickly erode any value. An example of this is a system I am looking at currently, the last 4 years on all days and all meetings it has had 747 selections for a S/R of 41.5%, of this there were 458 selections who ran on Saturday last start for a 41% S/R and 19% POT. There were also 289 selections who did run on a Saturday last start for a 42% S/R and a 7% LOT.

Now these figures don't take into account days last start or day of the week but you can see how even with a higher S/R there was absolutely no value in those selections. A test on Saturday races has yielded basically the same S/R and P/L figures, not saying this will be the case with your system but it is something to consider, especially if you are doubling your bet based on this logic.

Cheers,

Matt.

[Try Try Again]

I need to correct my last post as I have discovered a non qualifying horse on the 7th April had "snuck" through!

One unit on all selections

Bank +93.45 units
POT % = 34.0%

Betting extra unit on qualifiers starting 7,14 or 21 days ago

Bank +166.20 units
POT % = 36.7%

I have also looked at how the Zipform ratings would affect these results and have noticed that if you had only supported horses that had a Zipform rating of >=58 (with all the other rules in place) then there would have been, since 18th February (as I only have the Zipform ratings for all meetings since then),

Bets 26
Wins 14
Win S/R 56.8%
Bank +62.9 units
POT % = 125.8%

Maybe this would suggest we place an extra win unit on each of these selections as well. Of the 26 selections only 2 had not raced on either 7,14 or 21 days ago - both won! The lowest dividend of these 14 winners was $2.20 and the biggest was $8.00.

We would now have 3 units on each of these horses (that raced 7,14 or 21 days ago) and 2 units on the other horses.

Our results (bringing in this new rule since 18th February) would give

Bets 275
Wins 69
Win S/R 25.1%
Bank +199.2 units
POT% = 41.6%

I think this is becoming a "tidy" system and well worth persuing. What do you think?

[Try Try Again]

Hi Mattio,

My results so far indicate that by supporting the horses that did start 7,14 or 21 days increases the POT % and more importantly the Bank. I am only looking at Saturday major meetings in SA, NSW, Qld & VIC. The lowest winning dividend has been $1.80 and the highest dividend $15.80, both these have started on a Saturday previously. I know it is on limited testing but so far so good.

You said you are looking at LSW 7 days a week, have you looked at the Unitab rating to eliminate the lower class last start winners or looked at the number of starts the horses have had? This may improve your returns.

I run another system based on Open Class prepost favourites which has a 43.2% S/R and showing a 58.7% POT for nearly 6 years based on starting on a previous Saturday. I am very happy with this result, especially as the profit graph has continued on the same gradient from day 1.

I hope your success continues for another decade or ten!

[Try Try Again]

Here are the qualifiers for today if anyone is interested.
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="561"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2742;width:56pt" width="75"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:4571;width:94pt" width="125"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2048;width:42pt" width="56"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3949;width:81pt" width="108"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2011;width:41pt" width="55"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:5193;width:107pt" width="142"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt;width:56pt" height="20" width="75">12/05/2012</td> <td class="xl65" style="width:94pt" width="125">Caulfield</td> <td class="xl65" style="width:42pt" width="56">Dead</td> <td class="xl65" style="width:81pt" width="108">F&M</td> <td class="xl65" style="width:41pt" width="55">2000</td> <td class="xl67" style="width:107pt" width="142">Blue Nile</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">12/05/2012</td> <td class="xl65">Caulfield</td> <td class="xl65">Dead</td> <td class="xl65">Open</td> <td class="xl65">1800</td> <td class="xl67">Magnifique Soleil</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">12/05/2012</td> <td class="xl65">Caulfield</td> <td class="xl65">Dead</td> <td class="xl65">3yo</td> <td class="xl65">1200</td> <td class="xl67">Classy Chloe</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">12/05/2012</td> <td class="xl65">Caulfield</td> <td class="xl65">Dead</td> <td class="xl65">Open</td> <td class="xl65">1100</td> <td class="xl67">Stratcombe</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">12/05/2012</td> <td class="xl65">Caulfield</td> <td class="xl65">Dead</td> <td class="xl65">Mares</td> <td class="xl65">1200</td> <td class="xl67">Rue Maple</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">12/05/2012</td> <td class="xl65">Caulfield</td> <td class="xl65">Dead</td> <td class="xl65">Open</td> <td class="xl65">1400</td> <td class="xl67">Utah Saints</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">12/05/2012</td> <td class="xl65">Morphettville</td> <td class="xl65">Dead</td> <td class="xl65">Open</td> <td class="xl65">2500</td> <td class="xl67">My Ex Mate</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">12/05/2012</td> <td class="xl65">Rosehill</td> <td class="xl65">Dead</td> <td class="xl65">F&M</td> <td class="xl65">1100</td> <td class="xl67">Shelters</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">12/05/2012</td> <td class="xl65">Doomben</td> <td class="xl65">Dead</td> <td class="xl65">3yo</td> <td class="xl65">2000</td> <td class="xl67">Trump</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">12/05/2012</td> <td class="xl65">Doomben</td> <td class="xl65">Dead</td> <td class="xl65">Class 6</td> <td class="xl65">1350</td> <td class="xl67">Oak Street</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

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[axledog]

Hi TTA and Matt ,


Any thing come of this?
My new system under way now (3 weeks only - 13 selections for 6 wins
but no value.....)

Still lookin , getting closer , but need price.

And you ?

[gunny72]

Last start winner
Top ranked place percent
Career Starts >= 15

[Try Try Again]

Hi Axledog,

I have revisited my system a few weeks ago after I read about looking at starters without a lot of career runs.

Formally I looked at horses with 7 to 29 career starts but I now only look at horses with <20 career starts, that are also last start winners and with a few other rules, one being prepost price is <$10. This has increased the POT% considerably.

Keep working at it I'm sure you will strike it lucky soon!

[moeee]

You have been TOUd. Please stick to discussing the betting system and not flaming/baiting forum members. Thank you. Moderator.

[gunny72]

The stats show that the average strike rate of horses decreases as number of career starts increases but I am not sure how to interpret this. Should we be giving horses with fewer starts a greater rating or should we be compensating horses that have had a lot of starts?

[beton]

There is no reason why the Peter Principle can not be applied to horses. They just go up in class until they become mediocre.

[moeee]

You have been TOUd. Please stick to discussing the betting system and not flaming/baiting forum members. Thank you. Moderator.
Is there any danger as to posting who the members responsible for issuing the TOU in the future?
Is that a problem?

[Try Try Again]

Hi Axledog,

I look at the following rules for last start winners



Career starts
Unitab Rating
Win%
Days since last started (DSLS)
Prepost price
I only bet on Good or Dead tracks on Saturday Metropolitan meetings in SA,VIC, NSW & Qld.

As I previously indicated I changed how I was applying my rules and since 19th May there has been 26 bets for 7 winners (27% S/R) and an increase in bank of 32.4 units on an outlay of 45 units = POT% of 72%

The gold is out there - we just have to find it!

[mattio]

Hi TTA and Matt ,


Any thing come of this?
My new system under way now (3 weeks only - 13 selections for 6 wins
but no value.....)

Still lookin , getting closer , but need price.

And you ?Hi axledog,

I didn't really look any further into this mate, my last start winner systems are all going well so I didn't feel the need to try and scrutinize any further. I hope your S/R continues, if you can get the best price you will be ahead over time.

Cheers,

Matt.

[mattio]

The stats show that the average strike rate of horses decreases as number of career starts increases but I am not sure how to interpret this. Should we be giving horses with fewer starts a greater rating or should we be compensating horses that have had a lot of starts?Interesting point raised here, I have found that most of the systems I use perform best with horses that have won a maximium of 4 races, after this the number of winners and profitability tends to drop away a bit in my experience.

Cheers,

Matt.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Mattio,

A very interesting observation!

I have looked at my data base I am slowly putting together with the last start winners and a large number of losers from my final contenders have already won >4 races. I will certainly take note of this rule in future. Thanks!

[mattio]

No problems mate, glad I could be of help.

Cheers,

Matt.

[gunny72]

Thank you beton. I believe you have answered my quandary.
Incidentally, I looked up the Peter Principle which led me to systemantics which has a law that says the more complicated a system the more it is likely to fail, and this may be relevant to us system punters.

[Chrome Prince]

the more complicated a system the more it is likely to fail, and this may be relevant to us system punters.

Totally relevant and of course true.
The only systems that work longterm are those with sensible and clear rules, and they win because they stand the test of time based on only a few rules.
The rest work for a window of time, and fall over big time.

After years of system investigation, I can spot a good one and of course a dud one usually without having to refer to a database.

[The Ocho]

After years of system investigation, I can spot a good one and of course a dud one usually without having to refer to a database.
I don't suppose you can let us know of a good one that can be set up on a bot by any chance? :cool:

[bernie]

the more complicated a system the more it is likely to fail, and this may be relevant to us system punters.Couldn't agree there gunny. Darkydog is giving us some real gems and they are pretty complicated.