Meadows Quaddie

[moeee]

3,6/3,4/8/2,5,6 (FLEXI 50%)

Costs $6

[moeee]

Can't get these quaddies even though they look simple.

MEADOWS Race 8

2 FINEST RESULT $3.7
5 EL CORLEONE $4.9
6 LONG GULLY BOB $5.2
3 ALL INN BRADY $8.6
8 BANCE BALE $9.1
1 MOUSE'S IMAGE $20
7 LUCKY LEGS $30
4 NURSE ALLY Res. $66

I expect a Trifecta here
2,5,6 - 2,5,6 - 2,5,6,3,8 for $6 worth

[Lord Greystoke]

Can't get these quaddies even though they look simple.



Perhaps not, but your box trifecta from 1st 4 looks pretty good?

LG

[moeee]

Perhaps not, but your box trifecta from 1st 4 looks pretty good?

Yes.
Well.
Thats the key isn't it?
How many do you put in?
How many do you leave out?
I may be going a little skinny.

The bottom line is slowly climbing so I must be doing something right.

Here's SHEPPARTON Race 8

3 PUZZLE 'EM GIRL $3.9
2 ONYA JACK $4.7
7 RICEY $9.9
4 KID FREDDIE $10.6
1 REGAL COMMAND $11.6
5 BILLY BULL $11.8
6 GOLD PLEDGE $12.1
8 UNO STAR $12.6

Now for something completely different
EXACTA 3,2 - 8 for $1
and #8 $2 a Win.
There is method to this madness.

[moeee]

Shepparton Race 9

5 RUNAWAY RALFY $5
3 ARVO'S AFRICANO $6
1 ARNHEM ACCIDENT $6.5
2 SPENCE'S BOY $6.8
8 MANETTI BALE $8
6 TARGET OCTANE $9
4 FAWN HYDE $15
7 SANCTIFIED $25

I'ld like to see Joe Public come up with a more accurate Market than this.
That means its a good Race to LAY the Favourite , if there is one.

[woof43]

1 31.440
2 30.601
3 30.632
4 30.846
5 30.986
6 30.974
7 31.217
8 30.953
adjusted meadows.

[woof43]

1 30.454
2 30.595
3 30.153
4 30.351
5 30.850
6 30.506
7 30.475
8 30.404
adjusted to meadows

[moeee]

Good Luck with that Woof43.
I swear I won't be drawn again into Races I have no business messing with.

WARRNAMBOOL Race 6

4 ICEMAN RAIKKONEN $5.5
3 MISTER NORRIS $5.7
6 BLACK DODGE $6
2 TANDAR LASS $6.5
8 ETHEL BALE $9
1 PERFECT RIO $10
7 MONICA'S HOT $11
5 SWEET BETH $70

How do you wager here.
Hard to take short Odds about the top selection.
Just as hard to ignore it.
I suggest a very small win Wager on the Overlay from the top 4 selections.
And double it if it is #3

[moeee]

adjusted to meadows

Wouldn't it be more useful if the Times were adjusted to Warrnambool?
Or is that too hard?

EDIT: I just noticed the poor rating you have given #3 in Race 6.
Surely its last start win at Geelong is more than useful time?

[woof43]

makes it easier for me, to line them all up, plus I need to see the absolute difference in % when I do a percentile rank.

if you understand

[moeee]

EDIT: I just noticed the poor rating you have given #3 in Race 6.
Surely its last start win at Geelong is more than useful time?

Obviously my glasses need replacement or at least cleaning , or I am simply getting past my use by date.

[woof43]

Good Luck with that Woof43.
I swear I won't be drawn again into Races I have no business messing with.

WARRNAMBOOL Race 6

4 ICEMAN RAIKKONEN $5.5
3 MISTER NORRIS $5.7
6 BLACK DODGE $6
2 TANDAR LASS $6.5
8 ETHEL BALE $9
1 PERFECT RIO $10
7 MONICA'S HOT $11
5 SWEET BETH $70

How do you wager here.
Hard to take short Odds about the top selection.
Just as hard to ignore it.
I suggest a very small win Wager on the Overlay from the top 4 selections.
And double it if it is #3
The #4 has had 3 substantial spell in its career after last one of 80 odd days it never won a race, now its had 118 day spell I leave it up to you...
If it wins short priced good luck to whomever wagers on it

[moeee]

makes it easier for me, to line them all up, plus I need to see the absolute difference in % when I do a percentile rank.

if you understand

Well no - I don't understand percentile.

But are these the Times the animals would run at The Meadows?
Because if they are , then they are meaningless.
Because TANDAR LASS can't run 525 metres and will get a poor Rating.
But over the 450 , it is much better suited and has , in my opinion , a much better rating than what youhave given it.

[woof43]

Moeee I only posted finish times, as you said the figures I post make no sense to you, if I posted the sectionals it's a different story as you know you need to be close to the lead to show your best.

[moeee]

The #4 has had 3 substantial spell in its career after last one of 80 odd days it never won a race, now its had 118 day spell I leave it up to you...
If it wins short priced good luck to whomever wagers on it

Excellent Comment Woof43
Whether it turns out to be the case is irrelevant.
I need to develop the courage to go with a firm decision like this instead of sitting on the fence.
This is what is stopping me from reaching my target.

[moeee]

Moeee I only posted finish times, as you said the figures I post make no sense to you
So are these finish times average , peak , mean , adjusted , raw , expected or something else?

[woof43]

Well no - I don't understand percentile.


when you compare each dog to your database
example
30.601 0.266
30.632 0.285 difference 0.019

In a ideal world I should see that same absolute difference in the percentage of the amounts wagered on those dogs. (in the above example the #2 should have had 2% more money wagered on it, then the #3. Thats in the ideal world

But what we need to do is run 1000,s of races and do some comparison analysis, to find exactly how Joe Public handles this situation

[moeee]

But what we need to do is run 1000,s of races and do some comparison analysis, to find exactly how Joe Public handles this situation

No
What we need to do now is move on.

I'll be posting a Market for race 7 and that will be me for tonight.

[lomaca]

No
What we need to do now is move on.

I'll be posting a Market for race 7 and that will be me for tonight.I apologise for butting in moeee.

I do not consider myself an imbecile or ignorant person but for the life of me, having followed Woof's posting I have absolutely no idea what he is on about?

I'm sure he is so clear in his mind about it that he can't imagine anyone else not understanding it.

As you stated (paraphrasing here), "if you want to help be clear about it!"

I'm trying to analyse my selections to see if I can come up with something useful.

Good luck

[woof43]

1 30.455
2 30.156
3 30.582
4 30.580
5 30.623
6 30.628
7 30.219
8 30.746

[moeee]

I apologise for butting in moeee.

I'm sure he is so clear in his mind about it that he can't imagine anyone else not understanding it.


No need to apologise Lomaca.
I much welcome any input.
butt - we both know what will happen :( - please let it not be so!

Your comment above about Woof43 is exactly suitable and correct.
Its like the frog what tried to relate to his children ,the tadpoles , what living on land was like.

He is a Professional Punter Lomaca.
Different to how i go about it , although I am not a P.P.
And different to how you do Lomaca.

He's just different :)

Cheers.
Stanby for race 7 Market.

[moeee]

RACE 7

2 DYNA HACKETT $2.7
1 SCORSESE $4.3
7 BURNT FUSE $6.1
3 SHANLYN TWIGLEY $9.6
4 CAWBOURNE CODY $20
5 ABRASIVE MANNER $29
6 MAGIC JAY MAN $31
8 TIGER FLY $100

The concern is the shorter distance.
I just wonder whether there will be enough time for the Checks to make up the ground on the next 3 in My Market.

[woof43]

The #7 split times have dropped off since its spell, so hopefully it stays pretty much the same and leaves 2-1 to fight it out

[lomaca]

I much welcome any input.
butt - we both know what will happen :( - please let it not be so!

Not a chance moeee, I'd bite my tongue first.

Good luck

Ps race 11 3 and 4

[moeee]

Well I managed to make a mess of that race.
Too busy posting here and ran out of time to get my bets on.

This happens to me occasionally due to the USB Dongle deciding that the children playing games on the Internet have a higher priority than me.
One day I will stop being such a tightarse and get cable broadband set up and this business with my Computer just staring at me as though it has no idea what I just asked it to do.

Oh Well
I figure the Trifecta paid small so it wasn't a major concern.
Except to my Mental Attitude at the minute.

Here's the Voucher progress.

Peak $7,701
Current $7,422
Loss -$279

Goodnight

[moeee]

Not a chance moeee, I'd bite my tongue first.

Excellent

And I'll double read my posts before I press submit :)

[woof43]

bit of feelgood going on here..

and yep get the right setup Moee re cable or whatever

[moeee]

I'm trying to analyse my selections to see if I can come up with something useful.

Well if you can handle some of my sometimes ugly attitude when i comment , I'ld be happy to give my thoughts on your selections as to why I feel they are appropriate or not.
Its just a matter of accepting that there is no malice or putting down intended.
Like I said ,I will double check my attitude prior to pushing submit.

[moeee]

bit of feelgood going on here..

That's the thing isn't it Woof43.

Its like a snowball effect.
Niceness promotes participation.

But nastiness ends up in a deathly avalanche :(

[lomaca]

bit of feelgood going on here..
Not sure I get your meaning Woof, do you prefer to have members of this forum to be at each others throat?
Why?

I may not agree with moeee on a lot of things but so what?

BTW a few hints of what your numbers mean would be appreciated.

Good luck

[moeee]

Woof43 is a numbers man Lomaca.
As you have observed.

I have never ever seen him react to adverse comments directed at him.
Nor have I ever seen him post anything remotely described as denigrating.

He is what is called "thick skinned"
He is also very fair.

If only us members could understand his methods , then he would also be useful :)

I'm just downloading tomorrows Fields in preparation for a Big Night at Sandown.

[lomaca]

Ps race 11 3 and 4Forget #3 it's #4 we want just checked my tentative analysis records and it does not qualify!

[lomaca]

Woof43 is a numbers man Lomaca.
As you have observed.

I have never ever seen him react to adverse comments directed at him.
Nor have I ever seen him post anything remotely described as denigrating.

He is what is called "thick skinned"
He is also very fair.

If only us members could understand his methods , then he would also be useful :)

I'm just downloading tomorrows Fields in preparation for a Big Night at Sandown.not a problem for me moeee I usually take people as they come but throwing numbers at me irritates me when I don't know what they mean.

Plead guilty here as I have done the same thing before and been admonished for it too, and taken the advice!

Don't have any chance for tomorrow but see how I go for the rest of the week.
Good luck

[moeee]

Forget #3 it's #4 we want just checked my tentative analysis records and it does not qualify!

Nice work Lomaca.

Not a race that qualified for me , but I am familiar with the animal and am surprised it paid such Massive dividends.

Goodnite.