its a fine line between pleasure and pain

[Barny]

what ive noticed with system development is that there's ONE filter which will make or break a system. i have one system that goes from a +60% POT to barely break even and the difference is ONE filter, not the parameters of that filter, but the ACTUAL filter itself. Anyone else confirm this in their findings?

100% IMPORTANT for mine ..... Filters in systems must fit hand in glove with each other, each filter must have a nexus with each other filter.

and of course when you introduce a new filter be aware that it really is a difficult task to identify the value of this new filter.

to those who ask exactly what my systems are, how profitable, selections etc, ..... "give a man a fish and you feed him for one day ..... teach him how to fish and he can be fed for a lifetime" .....

[moeee]

What I've noticed is that you continually get members curiosity going with a statement that you have found something substantial like turning a system from break even into 60% POT , and then not say what it is.
And many members curiosity turns into angst because you never elaborate.

Its not a matter of fish or fishing.
Share something of substance.

Don't post "I know something special but I'm not gonna tell you what it is"
Don't do that Barny.
It's very annoying.

[Shaun]

The same can go for ratings, some will use 20 different variables and other will use 5 and can come up with the same selections or vary similar.

With selecting the right bets you need to use the K.I.S.S principle.

[Chrome Prince]

For me the most effective filter is price fluctuation.
The difference in return between drifters and steamers is staggering.
Couple that with just one good filter (any good filter) and it's happy days.

[Barny]

Don't post "I know something special but I'm not gonna tell you what it is"
Don't do that Barny.
It's very annoying.
I HAVEN'T posted anything special, they're comments that's all.

Don't bother reading general stuff if you prefer to read systems with POT's etc.

My 60% POT system is what the result shows up after it has searched !! My post here moeee is about how little there is between success and failure. Your intelligence in these matters is astounding.

Leave me alone moee and go lose some money somewhere else.

Do you have a database moeee? do you have 6 odd years worth of hard copy data moeee or are you just trying to scunge stuff for free on here. Well I'll tell you something moeee, you will struggle to find your pathway to riches on here if you blindly follow what look like winning systems, HOWEVER, you WILL become educated if you read and "INTERPRET" correctly (which may be near impossible for you) some of the more informative posts.

Obviously you've got wortk to do in this area.

I doub't you could find a winning system if you had the best database in the world moeee.

Go TOU that moeee, that's your strength !

If you dont understand it ..... you don't like it !!!! do you ?????

[Barny]

and you still cant spell disappointed moeee ..........

[Barny]

BEFORE you TOU me moeee, ask those who have a decent database how easy it is to come up with a system that will show you at least a 60% POT.

...........it aint that difficult, it's the next part that's hard.

[Lord Greystoke]

For me the most effective filter is price fluctuation.
The difference in return between drifters and steamers is staggering.
Couple that with just one good filter (any good filter) and it's happy days.

Interesting call CP - a couple of Qs if I may...

When you say "staggering", are we talking a difference in SR of say 3-5x, when using the one good filter ?

Any suggestions for easiest way (= website?) to track what is steaming, what is slipping?

LG

[Chrome Prince]

Yes Betchoice track odds, it's the movements on track from the bookmakers ring. APN send this data off track and Betchoice publish them.
There is a massive difference in strike rate for favoured horses, but the real difference is in the returns of unfavoured horses which drift or steam.

(Sorry norisk, I did it again!)

[Lord Greystoke]

There is a massive difference in strike rate for favoured horses, but the real difference is in the returns of unfavoured horses which drift or steam.

(Sorry norisk, I did it again!)

Just to be clear here, DO you mean - the one's I fancy (via 1 good 1 filter) which the market doesn't = drifters.. If they salute, I make a killing?

OR do you mean.. the unfavoured horses which drift are usually a poor betting proposition which generally provide a LOT over the longer term??

LG

[Chrome Prince]

The latter.

[bernie]

100% IMPORTANT for mine ..... Filters in systems must fit hand in glove with each other, each filter must have a nexus with each other filter.

and of course when you introduce a new filter be aware that it really is a difficult task to identify the value of this new filterCan anyone other than Barny please explain this to me in simple terms?

[Chrome Prince]

It's the case of identifying indepenant filters overlapping each other or being truly independant.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks for clarification.

Incidentally, did you manage to see the next race after the one you mentioned.. same combo of gay-berries = PP Fav, but no divvie to cherish

Was trying to pick up a replay online yesterday to check out the 2 runs but no luck.

LG

[bernie]

It's the case of identifying indepenant filters overlapping each other or being truly independant.Please give me an example

[Chrome Prince]

An example being the price the horse went around at.
Do we filter that price by jockey, or is that inbuilt to the price.
Is the price taking into account Heavy track and heavy form of the horse or is that inbuilt into the price by the public already.
I would suggest that in the pointy end of the market, those factors certainly are.

If we filter by has the horse ever won within 7 days before or is it his first crack at it, I don't think this is inbuilt into the price. Punters in general just don't go back that far in form. The greatest influence in price is the last start performance coupled with money or lack thereof for the horse on track.
Anything outside these parameters, is usually a handicapper's dream.
Because that's where errors in pricing occur along with overlays.

[bernie]

Oh.

So that is what Barny is doing. Okay. Ta

[moeee]

I HAVEN'T posted anything special, they're comments that's all.

You said you found a Filter that turns things around 60 %.
But you won't say what it is.
Thats not a comment , that can be plainly taken with a grain of salt.


Go TOU that moeee, that's your strength !

You must have me confused with someone else.
I'm in fact a virgin in that department.

[Barny]

You said you found a Filter that turns things around 60 %.
But you won't say what it is.

please try and concentrate moeee.

YES, I found a filter that turned things around by 60% in one of my systems BUT moeee, it will only work WHERE THERE'S A NEXUS between the other filters in the system moeee. I also said that too moeee. That's VITAL as far as I'm concerned moeee.

go look for sarge1's posts. He nominated one filter that improves most systems ..... and he's right !!

Keep digging moeee ......

[Barny]

and to LG, there were many posts on drifters and the amazing stat recurring that had +95% of those opening longer than pre-post ..... LOST.

moeee, this is me just regurgitating posts from the past and trying to assist those who haven't explored all this site has to offer.

[Barny]

Over 400% POT moeee

flemington, >1599, 2 sts from a spell, career sts <5, last start between 2 and 12 and run over <1201, 2nd last start between 2 and 12 and run over less that 1401

[moeee]

So you simply won't say what the Filter is Barny?
Good for you.

I'm done here.

[Lord Greystoke]

and to LG, there were many posts on drifters and the amazing stat recurring that had +95% of those opening longer than pre-post ..... LOST.
.

Very helpful, Barny.

Cheers LG

[Barny]

Concentrate moeee ..... the filter that improved one system from breaking even to a POT of 60% simply cannot be applied to any system and expect the same result.

Find sarge1's post yet ?, or do you need to be spoon fed.

I've just given you a system with a 400% POT moeee, that's what you want isn't it ??

Here you go moeee, a couple of filters that improve certain systems include increased prizemoney and only backing in the Metrop race meetings.

[Barny]

and LG, i think the author was michaelg ..... ?? someone will be able to confirm that or you could do a search

[Lord Greystoke]

The latter.

Those 2 words were a 'Nash moment', if you will permit me to say.

Have just snared 16s on the biggest 'steamer' in a maiden which ended up paying well into single figures. Not needing any further bets now on what is normal a problematic day for me = Tricky Thursdays

Let's just say you lifted an enormous 'filter of ignorance' away from the Greystoke goggles.

No further questions for now, Mr Nash!


Cheers LG

[Chrome Prince]

Time for the blackboard, chalk and a perfect circle ;)

[Chrome Prince]

Was he a brilliant mathemation or was it his paranoid schizophrenia which made him think outside of the box to come to findings that no one esle could.
That is the real question.
It was not his mathematical genius which gave me admiration, but quotations such as this which are off topic, but sheer brilliance:

Then gradually I began to intellectually reject some of the delusionally influenced lines of thinking which had been characteristic of my orientation. This began, most recognizably, with the rejection of politically-oriented thinking as essentially a hopeless waste of intellectual effort.

[Lord Greystoke]

Interesting quote CP.

I think its a question of ongoing focus.. extraordinary output would have required consistent focus - being the sum of his mathematical genius(thinking side) and paranoia(emotional?), rather than it being about cause and effect.

I think Albert E once suggested that he wasn't necessarily heaps smarter than those around him. He was, however able to focus on cracking a problem for a much longer period of time than most = an obsession, obsessive personality with regards a single topic, cause etc

Perhaps the schizophrenia was his focus or constant brain state, the skewed mathematical brain being the best / only tool to express this in a constructive way?

I am keen to look at more detail into what his achievements were with respect to game theory, and if there are any learning lessons we can bring into this forum, albeit on a much simpler level!


LG