develop a system

[Barny]

this is for moeee

go and get a decent database moeee, you'll have a ball with it, and it will answer all those pesky little questions you have on all matter of things. the database i've got is from this site, and the horses that should appear in the results actually do, so to me it confirms it's authenticity.

$400 spend and you're away.

but that's only a part of it moeee. i haven't had a wager since i've had this database, never really been a huge punter, nor one who needs to bet all the time. what it's taught me is that "there is a very fine line between winning and losing"

and my main system has been proven as a goer. it's a win% based system and there are a couple of filters that the database won't do, which gives me a further edge (yes moeee i'll give one of them to you .... where the horse is trained).

i've proven quite a few other systems, but as i said in a prior post, that's the easy bit.

there 12 years worth of data there ........

i'm still trying to prove one of my other favourite systems that i was sure was a really big goer but ???

[moeee]

I'm good thanks Barny.

I'll keep my $400 for useful things like bread and milk.

I'm done here too.

[Barny]

it's just that you're forever badgering everyone for proof of systems, proof of POT's, here's your chance to do it all for yourself

only trying to help

you've bleated how you can never win, here's an opportunity to buy an authentic database

[Barny]

i'll give you my system selections for melbourne for saturday moeee, there u go, you might be able to afford a croissant and latte sunday morning eh?

[bernie]

i'll give you my system selections for melbourne for saturdayI look forward to that. When will you post them?

[Vortech]

it's just that you're forever badgering everyone for proof of systems, proof of POT's, here's your chance to do it all for yourself

only trying to help

you've bleated how you can never win, here's an opportunity to buy an authentic database
A valid point!

[Barny]

Banca Mo is the closest selection (technically NOT because it failed marginally because it is a backmarker, but I'll punt it coz it was close) in the last.

My post titled "It's a fine line between pleasure and pain" came to mind while doing the form. There were 4 more nags that only marginally missed out on being a selection through ONE filter. eg; days break missing by one day, and Api missing by one placing.

The easy part surely is the development of a system's POT.

I have a suite of 7 systems and all combined they give approx 6 bets per month and a POT of 66% ..... take it or leave it as to whether you believe it. I haven't punted it so far.

[Barny]

and to those nimrods who don't believe my figures, that's ok, but the question remains as to how to make a quid based on 6 bets per month ???

the systems are asking me to become a far bigger gambler than I have ever been. i need to punt at least fifteen hundred on each selection. that's 9k per month for a POT of approx $1,500 per week.

and the run of outs hits straight away ...... then where am i ?

as i suggested, the easy part is the system development. i need three times as many systems whilst retaining the "notional" POT of 66% to make it work and lessen the chance of a bad run of outs.

[Vortech]

Do you incorporate top jockeys?

[Barny]

no, haven't even looked at that as yet. my systems are based around busting many myths including days break between runs etc. after years of thinging Api was nonsense, i now have a belief that it's worthwhile as a base to find the classier horses in a race. i try hard to make sure each filter fits hand in glove with the other filters, and is logical too. price is a good filter. i recall a post on here where the late geoff murphy won punting his horses but only when they were 4 / 1 or better. he said his strike rate meant he could lose punting that way. whether that's a true story i dont know but it's on this site somewhere.

a good horse, a good jockey, a good bet ..... and better than 4 / 1 should be a good filter.

[norisk]

and better than 4 / 1 should be a good filter.

Not 'good' barny, it's much better than that.

6 bets per month? 'patience of jobe' springs to mind, I would last 5 minutes;)

[darkydog2002]

A valid Point.

[Barny]

6 bets per month? 'patience of jobe' springs to mind, I would last 5 minutes;)
and for the life of me, i cannot get a LSW 7 days to show a decent POT. nor the topweight and No. 1 systems posted on here over the years from partypooper

[Try Try Again]

Hi Barny,

What do you consider a decent POT%?

I am currently using a Last Start Winner system (Saturdays only) showing a 38% POT since 26/11/11.

[Barny]

until i got this database i thought a decent POT was in the order of 20%

i have 7 systems with a POT ranging from 44% to 92% based on unitab figures and not one of them a LSW system or a topweight / TAB 1 system. mind you i've been following them for years / decades using herald sun formguides, so i haven't just hit a few buttons and the 'holy grail' has appeared.

[Barny]

i dont know how to find a method that would give you a POT during the weekdays unless the 'price' of the horse was a key component.

[moeee]

i have 7 systems with a POT ranging from 44% to 92% based on unitab figures
how many selections and how many races?

I mean , as an extreme example , if in a system you only have 6 selections in 12 qualifying races , then the sample for that particular system is way too small , irregardless if your database went back to when ADAM wore nappies.

[Barny]

moeee i have already posted this .....

"I have a suite of 7 systems and all combined they give approx 6 bets per month and a POT of 66% ..... take it or leave it as to whether you believe it. I haven't punted it so far."

7 systems
Selections: 887
Winners; 170
S/R: 19%
Return: 1472.60
Profit: 585.60
POT: 66%

database goes waaaay back but you are correct in wanting far more selections. I'd be happier if the selections totalled 5,000, but the database goes back to 1999

[Barny]

moeee, ive got a prizemoney system where it goes from LOTof 12% to a POT of 31% ..... A HUGE turnaround for a simple fiter of just looking at Saturday Class .. Many would nod their head in agreement. Party's systems picked up the importance of this filter too. Incidentally, a little tinker with selected Api rating and days since last start (all logical) got this beaut to 71%. It has 12 rules but they're all compatible with each other and with one main rule "A MYTH BUSTER".

[moeee]

I haven't punted it so far."

Good Boy.Keep resisting the temptation.
And don't post any future selections because we all know what the Forum Curse does to any attempts to show how good our System is.

Thank you for posting those stats for me Barny.
I have read a few ideas on backfitting - they basically boil down to it giving False Hopes.
But you seem to be having Fun , and as Bhagwan says, its not about Winning - Its about having Fun

I'll just go and have a slice of bread and glass of milk now.
Cheers Barny.

[Barny]

moeee, I AM going tp punt it because:

5 of the 7 systems I have ATM, I have followed with pencil and paper (for want of a better term) for well over 20 years with some systems!!!! Last year I actaully had week in week out, winning!, then I had to stop 'coz of circumstances.

All that the database has done is confirm my findings on most of my systems.

They're very selective, but if you look at most Saturdays, you can get rid of half the races wothout blinking.

[moeee]

Last year I actaully had week in week out, winning!

All that the database has done is confirm my findings on most of my systems.

So you were winning week in week out all last year , but you thought you would fork out $400 for a database to confirm it?

I'm done here.

[Barny]

i misspoke moeee, i had a perdiod last year where i was winning week in week out, it wnet on for a couple of months that's all

i humbly apologize for misleading you moeee

go buy your bread and milk and get some fresh air old son .......

[bernie]

moeee, I AM going tp punt it because:

5 of the 7 systems I have ATM, I have followed with pencil and paper (for want of a better term) for well over 20 years with some systems!!!! Last year I actaully actaully ?????

[Vortech]

Barney what database are you using?

[Barny]

vortech, the one that's advertised on here, racecensus

It's awesome, and i believe accurate and complete

I was too tight to spend this money for long enough, but now i'm glad i did.

Just to fiddle around and bust myth after myth. I have one system actually "based" around probably the first thing eliminated in any system ..... hahahaha and its' true ..... the end result is that most of my systems do not "carry" this filter anymore, and the one that's based around it performs very well indeed and on a large number of selections.

[bernie]

How long have you had your database Barny?

[Shaun]

Hey Barney, what version number do you have.

[Barny]

bernie & shaun are you two setting me up ?

what ver. how long have i had it .............

really guys ?!?! ........... dyor ...... end of story !!

[Shaun]

How the ******** could we be setting you by asking that question unless you don't own it.

[Barny]

you can all have one on me. i've backed banco mo, i dont think it can win coz it's up in class and tassie horses downt seem to fire here. so into me when it loses ok???

answer to shaun and bernie, i have racecensus database.

my shoe size is a comfortable 13 and i take 2XL size shirts

[bernie]

bernie & shaun are you two setting me up ?

what ver. how long have i had it .............

really guys ?!?! ........... dyor ...... end of story !!I asked a sensible question. Why can't you answer sensibly?

[Barny]

How long have you had your database Barny?
To bernie: A: three weeks

[Barny]

bernie, if the answer I gave you is ambiguous, misleading or you believe untruthful may I ask you to contact my legal team at Fleecem, Robbem and Knackerem at PO Box 999 Tallgaroopna.

yours sincerely
whatever 'nic ...... you choose?

[moeee]

You are being childish Barny.
GROW UP!!

[Barny]

sorry moeee, i'll change the habits of a lifetime for you .......

[bernie]

To bernie: A: three weeks
Thanks Barny

[bernie]

Barny, I'm sure you have had time to develop your skills using your database.

Could you please test this for me?

Sat metro.
Less than 18 starts with 1 career win only.

If there is more than one selection take the horse with the most starts.

[Barny]

LOT 17% (rounded up)

there's no logic to it bernie ..... what if it's one win was at it's first start

and why would you believe me anyway? your system might be great and i just keep the info for myself .... where there's money, there's sharks

[bernie]

..... what if it's one win was at it's first startThat would be the bet as long as there was no other winner with one start in less than 18 starts.

Not my system. It was posted a long time ago with outstanding results. I was just checking.

Winners on Saturday:
Rosehill R3
Belmont R2

[bernie]

That would be the bet as long as there was no other winner with one start in less than 18 startsShould read ..no other winner with one WIN in less than 18 starts.

[Barny]

That would be the bet as long as there was no other winner with one start in less than 18 starts.

Not my system. It was posted a long time ago with outstanding results. I was just checking.

Winners on Saturday:
Rosehill R3
Belmont R2
You post the outstanding results and the proof and I'll see what I can do .....

Betcha don't tho' .........

[bernie]

Barny, Betcha I do.

Here is the thread. Take a look at post 20 by swampfox.

stuningly and almost very simple win system (http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=15707)

[Chrome Prince]

Selections 12,333
Win Return $9,774.30
Place Return $10,095.08
Win Loss $2,558.70
Place Loss $2,237.92
Win LOT 20.75%
Place LOT 18.14%

[norisk]

ouch

[bernie]

Thanks CP

[beton]

What works yesterday does not necessarily work today. I have a graveyard of betting systems that have periods of winning (some with quite long periods) but have fallen into a hole. Would they return to their winning ways? Maybe. Would I use them again? Not likely unless I learn how to smell if they are turning off again. A lot of systems just don't get the returns because every man and his dog (and the dog's dog) are on the selection. So in order for any of these systems to make a comeback, the strike rate must improve or we have to get better prices and most likely both have to occur. Any of these old systems need to be checked month by month and year on year. AND if it has some big divvies and those divvies are the bulk of the profit then you are flirting with danger.

[bernie]

I totally agree with you beton.

[Lord Greystoke]

HI Beton,
Without the benefit of a humungous data engine at my knee..

Would you agree that when one picks up an old system that was working say 5 years ago, and it immediately produces a winner or 2 from a random meeting picked today(and tomorrow) using exactly the same 'rules', there is a reasonable chance that...

(a) it still has legs
(b) few others are following it


LG

[beton]

HI Beton,
Without the benefit of a humungous data engine at my knee..

Would you agree that when one picks up an old system that was working say 5 years ago, and it immediately produces a winner or 2 from a random meeting picked today(and tomorrow) using exactly the same 'rules', there is a reasonable chance that...

(a) it still has legs
(b) few others are following it


LG

Both with a big maybe. I would test it first of all, either by running it thru a data base or in light of no data base, I would test it on paper or live at minimum outlay. If it had legs and fell off the perch because it was overbet then it may still have legs. People get a lead into a system, have few wins and tell their friends which in turn affects the odds which in turn affects the viability of the system. When they start losing they move to next hot system and destroys that as well. A good system may work again if the selection method has a good strike rate or has quality picks. The biggest culprit between 5 years ago and now is computers and access to good ratings. A good rating service will have the winner in their top five, a good system has to be able to pick the top horse out of those 5 OR pick the winning horse that the ratings miss altogether. Most of the information that goes into the computer rating programs is the same, it is all historical data. It goes in and adds 1 plus 1 and comes out 2. A good system has to come out better than 2. Test your system with a small amount that you are comfortable with for a set amount. If you are not in front after 20 x $1 bets bin it. If you are in front play with the winnings and monitor your losses. Beton