Test a Place System

[michaelg]

I'm having some success with a Place system based on the higher end of the market, which also has been profitable with Win but I don't bet as it will interfere with my laying.

I'll list today's selections and see how they go...

Hobart
2/14
4/5
5/10
7/6

Kalgoorlie
2/8
3/2
5/1

Nowra
2/2
5/7

Alice Springs
1/2
3/1

Strathalbyn
1/7

Sun Coast
1/4
5/12
7/7

I don't mind the small meetings because of the distorted divvies. Yesterday at Mackay I had a good day with two placegetters, paying $2.80 and $4.10.

[Lord Greystoke]

Nice work mg.

Are we still talking open v closed methodologies?

LG

[michaelg]

I'm unwilling to disclose any method on an open forum.

However, if after a week it has been successful I'll list the rules by private e-mail to any forum member who wishes.

There have been two selections already run. They both won, the first paying $3.60 and $1.40, and the second $1.70 and $1.04

[Lord Greystoke]

Brilliant stuff !

Long may the placings continue.

LG

[michaelg]

The Forum Curse has struck.

From the 15 selections there were 9 placegetters that returned $12.38 on the NSW TAB for a loss of $2.62, there were three selections that ran fourth.

[Merriguy]

Don't muck with that Forum Curse, Michael!!!

[michaelg]

Yes, but is there anything to bribe or even conquer it?

Two selections today:

M'brook
3/1

Wodonga
3/12

[Toil]

Hi michael,

Rather then start a new thread at this point I just wanted to ask with lay betting, does the runner you lay only have to miss first place or does it have to finish outside the top 3? or is there the option to choose?

[Merriguy]

Michael is often not available in the afternoons, so, if I may, the answer to your question is that you have the option to choose. You can lay for the place as well as for the win. Go to the B/F site and have play with what is available. Nothing happens to your bank until you hit the "Place Bets" button. Good Luck.

[The Ocho]

Hi michael,

Rather then start a new thread at this point I just wanted to ask with lay betting, does the runner you lay only have to miss first place or does it have to finish outside the top 3? or is there the option to choose?
It depends if you're laying for the win or for the place.

For the win it just has to come 2nd or worse.

For the place it has to come 4th or worse (provided there are at least 8 runners in the race - i.e. where a third dividend is paid).

I hope that makes sense.

[Toil]

Cheers for those replies and clearing that up for me as I thought I read somewhere michael saying his bet nearly placed.

[michaelg]

Yes, I've had 4 selections that ran fourth, but I'm betting not laying them.

Both selections yesterday were unplaced.

It's disappointing but I still have some confidence in the system.

Today's selections are:

Geelong
2/9
3/11
6/1
8/1

Grafton
2/15

Townsville
3/5
4/10
6/2

[michaelg]

A better day. From the eight selections there were six placegetters for a profit of $2.50.

[Lord Greystoke]

master blaster back...

WHhhhhhhACCCKKKKKK..... !

LG

PS wine needed here, obviously

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Balaklava
1/8
8/1

Belmont
1/6
3/3
7/9

Bendigo
1/4

Dombeen
2/8
4/12

Gosford
2/1


Let's hope we can wwhhaaaacckk some more winning runs.

[michaelg]

A change (improvement?) to the method.

Two selections today:

Sun Coast
3/1

Geelong
2/6

[michaelg]

Correction - I didn't take into account the scratchings.

Today's genuine selections are:

Sun Coast
3/1

Geelong
1/4
3/12

Tamworth
1/2
2/6

[michaelg]

After a late scratching there were four selections for three placegetters giving a profit of $0.70.

[michaelg]

At the moment I'm looking at only races 1 to 4. But I'm recording the other races to see how they fare.

Two races today:

Newcastle 1/7

Gold Coast 3/1

[michaelg]

Yesterday only one of the two selections placed for a loss of $0.90.

However there were four selections outside races 1 to 4 for three placegetters for a profit of $2.10. So from today I'll list all selections:

Sun Coast
1/4 (already run - paid $1.80)
3/1
4/10
6/3

Wagga
3/10
4/10

Ballarat
2/8 (already run - paid $1.20)

Kalgoorlie
1/1
5/2

[michaelg]

From the nine selections there were seven placegetters for a return of $9.40. The two unplaced selections ran fourth.

[michaelg]

One selection today:

Kyneton
2/5

[Toil]

From the nine selections there were seven placegetters for a return of $9.40. The two unplaced selections ran fourth.

Well done!

Bad luck with Mondays 1 selection.

[michaelg]

Toil, I've again lost interest in betting. There was one Place selection yesterday (Cessnock 1/5) which placed paying $1.50. I did not bet it because I once more only lay horses.

I no longer Lay the Field because even though the method is quite reliable the drawback is that the profit is small.

I've been laying with success two methods for (1) - fields of under 11 starters and (2) - fields of 11 and more starters. So I've been laying in almost every race.

Today I'll start a new thread and list the selections.

Last night I experimented with the lay method of 11-plus starters in the U.K. for a liability of $33 (more convenient to type $33 than $30) and the profit was $60 which more or less mirrors the profit here in Oz.

[Toil]

Any hints to the rules of this place system?

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Toil, I'll list the rules here because the method is at the moment only treading water, and someone who is interested in Place betting might improve it with a new rule(s), filter, etc.

1) Only one horse between 96 to 100 Unitab points after scratchings - it could not be simpler.

Yesterday there were 11 selections for 5 placegetters for a return of $10.30.

Here's something I've on and off been looking at not just for this method but other betting methods, but as usual have lost interest - if a selection did not finish in the top 4 at its last run I've been considering omitting it from the system. Yesterday there were only 2 selections in this category - not only did they both Place for a return of $5.40 but they won their respective races for a return of $16.80.

Obviously there's little action, but for a good (hopefully) reason Unitab gives them high points even though to many of us their last start may not have been impressive.

[michaelg]

If anyone's interested today's selections are:

Rocky
4/9 (not in top four at last start)
7/4

Geelong
3/4

Pinjarra
5/12 (not in top four at last start)

[Toil]

Thanx for sharing michael.

There's definitely some potential there.

cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks Michael for sharing those findings.

Heres something I have noticed.

Target 1-2 horses between 100-96pts

Must of run, 1-4th last start.

Delete race if 3 horses between 100-96pts.


If still a draw , take the shorter price in the live market of the 2 horses.
Maybe the Pre-post market could also be used for this process.

Only bet them if we can get approx 2.80+ for the win.


This usually produces a hand full of bets most days.