2 Lay Methods

[michaelg]

I started a new thread earlier but somehow it seems to have disappeared. I'll try again.

The first method (10 and less runners) This is laying outsiders. The numbers shown are to be layed for a liabilty of $33

Belmont
4/ 9, 10, 11
7/ 6, 8, 9, 10

C'bury
1/ 2, 5, 8, 9
2/ 5, 7
4/ 4, 7, 8, 9
5/ 2, 3, 5, 10, 11,12
6/ 4, 7

Flemington
1/ 4, 7, 9, 12, 13 (already run - the profit was $7.12)
3/ 2, 4, 7, 8, 9
7/ 2, 5, 7, 8

M'Ville
1/ 2, 5, 6
4/ 1, 4, 5, 6
5/ 1, 2, 6, 7, 10
6/ 2, 5, 7, 10

Dombeen
1/ 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
2/ 8, 9, 10
3/ 4, 6, 8, 9, 10



Second Method. 11-plus runners. The fave end of the market.

Dombeen
4/ 3, 8, 13
5/ 2, 11
7/ 4, 5, 10

C'bury
3/ 1, 4, 8
7/ 1, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, 17

Flemington
2/ 2, 6, 8
4/ 1, 5, 8, 12
6/ 2, 6, 7, 9, 12
8/ 1, 4, 6, 7, 8

M'ville
3/ 11, 12
7/ 7, 8
8/ 6, 10

Belmont
1/ 1, 6
2/ 4, 5, 10
3/ 2, 3, 6, 10
5/ 2, 4, 5
6/ 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8
8/ 2, 4, 11, 12, 14, 15

[michaelg]

A good day for the under 11 runners.

From the 17 races a profit was made on 15 of them for a total profit of $72.54. I've only had one losing day with this method, and that was only $13. I think it might be because the price of the outsiders are not too high which results in an acceptable profit when successful. The best profit today was $16.82 on Canterbury R1.

I did not bet on the 11-plus runners because I changed my mind at the last minute. However I more or less applied a similar selection process to the under 11 runners method to lay outsiders, not favoured horses. I didn't keep records but am under the impression it would have also been profitable.

There is one more race to go, and applying these rules the selections I am laying for $33 are:

Belmont
8/ 6, 8, 9, 13

[michaelg]

Today's lay selections:

Geelong
1/ 6, 10
3/ 5, 8, 10
6/ 2
7/ 7, 9, 10

Gosford
1/ 4, 8, 9, 10, 11
2/ 1, 3, 8
3/ 5
4/ 8
6/ 8, 9, 10, 11
7/ 6, 9, 10

Rocky
1/ 2, 8, 9
2/ 4, 8, 9, 10, 11
3/ 7, 8
4/ 2, 6, 7, 8
5/ 7, 8, 9
6/ 5, 7, 8, 9
7/ 2, 8, 9, 10

[michaelg]

Correction - I erred with Gosford races 7 and 8

The correct horses to lay in these races are:

Gosford
7/ 2, 6, 8, 10, 13, 14, 15
8/ 6, 9, 10

[michaelg]

I won $3.64 today.

However I have been under the impression that instead of laying the selections it might be better to back all the other other horses in the race.

I haven't recorded the results during the testing period but have done the comparisons for yesterday and today.

Yesterday the lay system had a profit of $72.54. Backing the other horses in those races on Betfair S.P. with $5.00 bets had a profit of $146.40.

As mentioned above, today's profit for the lay system was $3.64 but backing the other horses would have produced a profit of $79.15. I backed them on both days with the NSW TAB and surprisingly am in profit. And boxing them in quinellas has also been profitable. The quinella for Geelong R7 paid $130 ($150 on Unitab).

Betting S.P. is more profitable then laying, yet surprisingly the liability on betting is much less then laying. Both days indicates that the profit on betting is higher and that the liability is less.

The only drawback is the strike rate. Today I lost on only two races with the lay system but 14 with the bet system because the fave or second-fave won.

Tomorrow I'll start a new thread listing the selections that I will bet.