Acceptable Lay Stats

[evajb001]

Hi All,

I've been backtesting a lay method using my ratings as the mechanism helping me decide when to lay the favourite due to the race being open in the view of my ratings.

I'm just interested in what are acceptable stats for a lay method? I've only back tested for a week so far as I started last night but here's what i've got so far:

MAX LIABILITY & NO STOP LOSS (74 bets)
77.03% SR
10.70% POT

NO MAX LIABILITY & NO STOP LOSS (74 bets)
77.03% SR
8.95% POT

MAX LIABILITY & STOP LOSS (62 bets)
82.26% SR
17.10% POT

NO MAX LIABILITY & STOP LOSS (62 bets)
82.26% SR
16.18% POT

Obviously there isn't enough data to say whether its a winner yet or not but i'm just curious what makes a lay system acceptable? Definitely seems like managing the risk with a max liability and stop loss helps the returns. There has only been 1 occurance of 2 losses in a row so far and this would've been stopped due to the stop loss. So it may even be more profitable with some sort of recovery built in as well maybe?

Anyhow just looking for some comments on lay systems basically, if the backtesting keeps looking decent i might start live betting it with a bot with small amounts of money.

Cheers

[AngryPixie]

Obviously there isn't enough data to say whether its a winner yet or not but i'm just curious what makes a lay system acceptable?

Hi, no there's a lot more testing needed there. 74 is a very small sample. By comparison I'd probably lay twice as many horses as that a day :eek:

Obviously an acceptable lay system is one that gives you a profit and there's many way's that can be achieved. More targeted systems as you are alluding to do tend to produce a higher profit on turnover than high volume systems that make profit from the churn. I'm not averse to the more targeted approach but it can become frustrating when the Fates turn against you.

Definitely seems like managing the risk with a max liability and stop loss helps the returns.

Maybe but too early to know. I'm not a stop loss person as I think it tends to even itself out over time. Stop loss can equal lost opportunity.

So it may even be more profitable with some sort of recovery built in as well maybe?

No no never do that! Silly for backing, suicide for laying.

[AngryPixie]

PS: How are you calculating your POT?

[evajb001]

Hi Angry Pixie,

The way i'm doing it is only laying 1 horse per race in selected races so some days there can be up to 10 or so selections, other days 1, 2 or 3. The recovery part was just an idea but one I don't really like, as you can read anywhere martingale type systems only work if you have a never ending bank account (according to statistics).

For the Max Liability POT i've calculated it as:

Profit / Total Liability to date

So for instance 5 lays:

Loss @ $3.50 odds - $10 Liability - $10 loss
Win @ $2.50 odds - $10 Liability - $6.67 Profit
Win @ $4.90 odds - $10 Liability - $2.56 Profit
Win @ $3.10 odds - $10 Liability - $4.76 Profit
Win @ $5.30 odds - $10 Liaiblity - $2.33 Profit

This would be a $6.32 Profit over $50 Liaibility, hence 12.64% POT, is this the correct way of doing it?

In terms of no max liability i've simply calculated based on $10 stakes so for the above example.

Loss @ $3.50 odds - $25 Liability - $25.00 loss
Win @ $2.50 odds - $15 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $4.90 odds - $39 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $3.10 odds - $21 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $5.30 odds - $43 Liaiblity - $10.00 Profit

This would be a $15.00 Profit over $143 Liability, hence 10.49% POT, is this correct?

I've done a little more testing, best result is still the Max Liability & Stop Loss option:

88 bets:
82.95% SR
16.87% POT

[Raven]

Hi Angry Pixie,

The way i'm doing it is only laying 1 horse per race in selected races so some days there can be up to 10 or so selections, other days 1, 2 or 3. The recovery part was just an idea but one I don't really like, as you can read anywhere martingale type systems only work if you have a never ending bank account (according to statistics).

For the Max Liability POT i've calculated it as:

Profit / Total Liability to date

So for instance 5 lays:

Loss @ $3.50 odds - $10 Liability - $10 loss
Win @ $2.50 odds - $10 Liability - $6.67 Profit
Win @ $4.90 odds - $10 Liability - $2.56 Profit
Win @ $3.10 odds - $10 Liability - $4.76 Profit
Win @ $5.30 odds - $10 Liaiblity - $2.33 Profit

This would be a $6.32 Profit over $50 Liaibility, hence 12.64% POT, is this the correct way of doing it?

In terms of no max liability i've simply calculated based on $10 stakes so for the above example.

Loss @ $3.50 odds - $25 Liability - $25.00 loss
Win @ $2.50 odds - $15 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $4.90 odds - $39 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $3.10 odds - $21 Liability - $10.00 Profit
Win @ $5.30 odds - $43 Liaiblity - $10.00 Profit

This would be a $15.00 Profit over $143 Liability, hence 10.49% POT, is this correct?

I've done a little more testing, best result is still the Max Liability & Stop Loss option:

88 bets:
82.95% SR
16.87% POTSome very sound advice by Pixie there. Stop / Loss isn't my cup of tea either.

I always calculate profit as a percentage of your total 'hold'. In your 2nd example, the $10 flat stake lays, your total hold is $50 obviously. Just remember to account for the 6.5% comission, so your profit was $9.35 x 4 less $25, $12.40 profit on $50 hold, thus 24.8%.

My preferred method of staking is simply 2 lay bets on each selection; one to Liability at SP and one to flat stake at available lay price at a pre-determined time, say -5 sec mark.

[jose]

"My preferred method of staking is simply 2 lay bets on each selection; one to Liability at SP and one to flat stake at available lay price at a pre-determined time, say -5 sec mark."

Does that average out the prices much Raven?
I am looking for a way to 'flatten out the lumps' so to speak, as the ups and downs are a bit of a ride at times with this laying caper.

[Raven]

To be honest it smooths the ride only to a small degree. The POT is very similar after 12 months for each method, so I'm just sticking to it as it has worked.

Liability is frustrating when an odds on pop gets up, as its a little too aggressive at that odds range.

Another method is to mix the 2 methods depending on price range, such as:

Flat stake lay of $6 if under $6.00
Lay to Liability $30 if over $6.00
at $6.00 the Flat & Liability bet are equal.

[jose]

Cheers Raven, that is pretty much what I am finding as well.
Chrome Prince has said that when he has an odds on lay he lays the other horses in the race for double the usual amount, or something along those lines anyhow, he states that it smooths out the ride somewhat.
The answer is probably a pineapple, so we will soldier on and cop our medicine I suppose.

[Bhagwan]

Generally, flat stakes of 1% or less works best on prices 5.80 & less.
Especially when taking Odds-on shots to fall over.

Betting to Liability works best on 6.00+

As Raven has mentioned.

[AngryPixie]

The way i'm doing it is only laying 1 horse per race in selected races so some days there can be up to 10 or so selections, other days 1, 2 or 3.

Nothing wrong with that. A much bigger shock to the system when the inevitable 2 or 3 losing lays in a row happens though. :(

As Raven pointed out, profit on hold is how many layers calculate their profits.

[evajb001]

Using the profit on hold method doesn't this over-estimate the POT as it's not considering what you've actually put at risk to receive that profit, its only considering the profit side of it?

I've continued doing some backtesting and almost done back to the start of May now. Once i've finished that if it still looks profitable, i'll decide which bot I want to start using and trial the method walking forward.

[evajb001]

Backtested to start of May:

MAX LIABILITY

SR - 80.86%
POT - 15.13%

NO MAX LIABILITY

SR - 80.86%
POT - 11.76%

Lay's for today for those interested (Lay the 1st Favorite):

QR 4
QR 8
NR 5
NR 9
VR 7
VR 8

[evajb001]

forgot to say, lay if under $6 odds

[evajb001]

Sorry was in a rush, its meant to be QR7 not QR8. Also just got stooged at Sunshine Coast, layed Shafeeq, late scratching, $20 horse wins so i just got money back.

[evajb001]

average day yesterday, here is today's races for those interested.

Flemington:
R6
R7

Eagle Farm:
R1
R4
R5
R6
R7
R8

Rosehill:
R2
R3
R5
R6
R7
R8

Morphettville:
R6
R7
R8

Belmont:
R6
R7